arXiv subjects

A. Isavnin

Publications and source records attributed to A. Isavnin.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2019

Testing the background solar wind modelled by EUHFORIA

In order to address the growing need for more accurate space weather predictions, a new model named EUHFORIA (EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset) was recently developed (Pomoell and Poedts, 2018). We present first results of the performance assessment for the solar wind modeling with EUHFORIA and identify possible limitations of its present setup. Using the basic EUHFORIA 1.0.4. model setup with the default input parameters, we modeled background solar wind (no coronal mass ejections) and compared the obtained results with ACE, in situ measurements. For the need of statistical study we developed a technique of combining daily EUHFORIA runs into continuous time series. The combined time series were derived for the years 2008 (low solar activity) and 2012 (high solar activity) from which in situ speed and density profiles were extracted. We find for the low activity phase a better match between model results and observations compared to the considered high activity time interval. The quality of the modeled solar wind parameters is found to be rather variable. Therefore, to better understand the obtained results we also qualitatively inspected characteristics of coronal holes, sources of the studied fast streams. We discuss how different characteristics of the coronal holes and input parameters to EUHFORIA influence the modeled fast solar wind, and suggest possibilities for the improvements of the model.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory

We present an advance towards accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over 2/3 of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by 5 in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60 degree longitudinal width, constant speed and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for 1 correct prediction, 2 to 3 false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 +/- 16.6 hours difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

Three-dimensional evolution of erupted flux ropes from the Sun (2-20 Rs) to 1 AU

Studying the evolution of magnetic clouds entrained in coronal mass ejections using in-situ data is a difficult task since only a limited number of observational points is available at large heliocentric distances. Remote sensing observations can, however, provide important information for events close to the Sun. In this work we estimate the flux rope orientation first in the close vicinity of the Sun (2-20 Rs) using forward modeling of STEREO/SECCHI and SOHO/LASCO coronagraph images of coronal mass ejections and then in-situ using Grad-Shafranov reconstruction of the magnetic cloud. Thus, we are able to measure changes in the orientation of the erupted flux ropes as they propagate from the Sun to 1 AU. We present both techniques and use them to study 15 magnetic clouds observed during the minimum following Solar Cycle 23 and the rise of Solar Cycle 24. This is the first multievent study to compare the three-dimensional parameters of CMEs from imaging and in-situ reconstructions. The results of our analysis confirm earlier studies showing that the flux ropes tend to deflect towards the solar equatorial plane. We also find evidence of rotation on their travel from the Sun to 1 AU. In contrast to past studies, our method allows one to deduce the evolution of the three-dimensional orientation of individual flux ropes rather than on a statistical basis.

astro-ph.SR↗