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A. J. Shajib

Publications and source records attributed to A. J. Shajib.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

TDCOSMO. XXVII. JWST-based Lens Models and H$_0$ Measurement of WFI2033, HE0435, and PG1115

Time-delay cosmography offers a one-step, distance-ladder-independent route to the Hubble-Lemaitre constant, H_0. We present new cosmography-grade lens models of three quadruply imaged quasars based on JWST-NIRCam/F115W imaging (WFI2033-4723, HE0435-1223, PG1115+080). We use the STARRED modeling technique, introduced in our previous analysis of WFI2033-4723, to reconstruct the complex JWST-NIRCam Point Spread Function at high fidelity. We combine NIRCam-based lens models with improved external convergence estimates, published time delays, and aperture-integrated stellar velocity dispersions from JWST NIRSpec to infer H_0. The analysis was carried out blindly for HE0435-1223 and PG1115+080, while it was not blind for WFI2033-4723, as we build upon the previous published model. For comparison with previous HST-based work, we limit our analysis to the case of no internal mass-sheet degeneracy ($λ_{\rm int}=1$). We quantify the impact of improved imaging, single-aperture kinematics, and environment measurements on central values and uncertainties. Within flat $Λ$CDM, assuming a uniform prior on $Ω_{\rm m}$, we find H_0 = 71.8$_{-7.0}^{+9.2}$ $λ_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for PG1115+080, 74.2$_{-4.2}^{+4.2}$ $λ_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for HE0435-1223, and 73.4$_{-4.4}^{+3.4}$ $λ_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ for WFI2033-4723. Combining the three lenses yields H_0 = 73.5$_{-2.8}^{+2.7}$ $λ_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, consistent with HST-based results (73.6$_{-2.6}^{+2.6}$ $λ_{\rm int}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$), but with reduced scatter between the three systems. These models will be incorporated in the TDCOSMO-2026 milestone paper with free $λ_{\rm int}$ in a hierarchical fashion. We close by outlining how 16 forthcoming JWST NIRCam targets will further tighten uncertainties toward percent-level precision on H_0.

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The Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere cosmic shear project V: Constraints on cosmology and astrophysics from 270 million galaxies across 13,000 deg$^2$ of the sky

We present constraints on models of cosmology and astrophysics using cosmic shear data vectors from three datasets: the northern and southern Galactic cap of the Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere (DECADE) project, and the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3. These data vectors combined consist of 270 million galaxies spread across 13,000 ${\rm deg}^2$ of the sky. We first extract constraints for $Λ$CDM cosmology and find $S_8= 0.805^{+0.019}_{-0.019}$ and $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.262^{+0.023}_{-0.036}$, which is consistent within $1.9 σ$ of constraints from the Planck satellite. Extending our analysis to dynamical dark energy models shows that lensing provides some (but still minor) improvements to existing constraints from supernovae and baryon acoustic oscillations. Finally, we study six different models for the impact of baryons on the matter power spectrum. We show the different models provide consistent constraints on baryon suppression, and associated cosmology, once the astrophysical priors are sufficiently wide. Current scale-cut approaches for mitigating baryon contamination result in a residual bias of $\approx 0.3σ$ in the $S_8, Ω_{\rm m}$ posterior. Using all scales with dedicated baryon modeling leads to negligible improvement as the new information is used solely to self-calibrate the baryon model on small scales. Additional non-lensing datasets, and/or calibrations of the baryon model, will be required to access the full statistical power of the lensing measurements. The combined dataset in this work represents the largest lensing dataset to date (most galaxies, largest area) and provides an apt testing ground for analyses of upcoming datasets from Stage IV surveys. The DECADE shear catalogs, data vectors, and likelihoods are made publicly available.

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TDCOSMO: XX. WFI2033--4723, the First Quadruply-Imaged Quasar Modeled with JWST Imaging

Gravitational time delays offer unique, independent measurements of the Hubble constant, $H_0$. Precise measurements of $H_0$ stand as one of the most pressing challenges in modern cosmology, and to do so with time delays requires precise lens models. While much work has focused on streamlining the modeling process to keep pace with the erumpent discovery of strongly-lensed systems, a critical step toward reducing uncertainty in $H_0$ comes from increasing the precision of individual lens models themselves. In this work, we demonstrate that the unprecedented imaging capabilities of JWST make this goal attainable. We present the first lens model for time-delay cosmography derived from JWST data, applied to the quadruply-imaged quasar WFI2033--4723. While the primary source of systematic uncertainty in time-delay cosmography is currently the mass-sheet degeneracy (MSD), the sensitivity of models to this MSD varies on how the point spread function (PSF) errors are mitigated. As the PSF is also the primary source of uncertainty in lens modeling, we focus on a comparison of different PSF modeling methods. Within the context of power-law models, we recover results in agreement with previous Hubble Space Telescope (HST)-based models, but with better precision of key lensing parameters through implementation of new PSF modeling techniques. Despite the record-holding precision of this system's HST modeling, we achieve an additional 22% increase in precision of the Fermat potential difference, directly reducing uncertainties of cosmological inference. These results would produce a 3% ($1σ$ of the modeling error) shift of $H_0$ towards a higher value for this lens, keeping all else constant. This work substantiates the groundbreaking potential of JWST for time-delay cosmography and lays the groundwork for modeling systems previously too faint to provide meaningful constraints on $H_0$.

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Strong Lensing by Galaxies

Strong gravitational lensing at the galaxy scale is a valuable tool for various applications in astrophysics and cosmology. The primary uses of galaxy-scale lensing are to study elliptical galaxies' mass structure and evolution, constrain the stellar initial mass function, and measure cosmological parameters. Since the discovery of the first galaxy-scale lens in the 1980s, this field has made significant advancements in data quality and modeling techniques. In this review, we describe the most common methods for modeling lensing observables, especially imaging data, as they are the most accessible and informative source of lensing observables. We then summarize the primary findings from the literature on the astrophysical and cosmological applications of galaxy-scale lenses. We also discuss the current limitations of the data and methodologies and provide an outlook on the expected improvements in both areas in the near future.

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J1721+8842: The first Einstein zig-zag lens

We report the discovery of the first example of an Einstein zig-zag lens, an extremely rare lensing configuration. In this system, J1721+8842, six images of the same background quasar are formed by two intervening galaxies, one at redshift $z_1 = 0.184$ and a second one at $z_2 = 1.885$. Two out of the six multiple images are deflected in opposite directions as they pass the first lens galaxy on one side, and the second on the other side -- the optical paths forming zig-zags between the two deflectors. In this letter, we demonstrate that J1721+8842, previously thought to be a lensed dual quasar, is in fact a compound lens with the more distant lens galaxy also being distorted as an arc by the foreground galaxy. Evidence supporting this unusual lensing scenario includes: 1- identical light curves in all six lensed quasar images obtained from two years of monitoring at the Nordic Optical Telescope; 2- detection of the additional deflector at redshift $z_2 = 1.885$ in JWST/NIRSpec IFU data; and 3- a multiple-plane lens model reproducing the observed image positions. This unique configuration offers the opportunity to combine two major lensing cosmological probes: time-delay cosmography and dual source-plane lensing since J1721+8842 features multiple lensed sources forming two distinct Einstein radii of different sizes, one of which being a variable quasar. We expect tight constraints on the Hubble constant and the equation of state of dark energy by combining these two probes on the same system. The $z_2 = 1.885$ deflector, a quiescent galaxy, is also the highest-redshift strong galaxy-scale lens with a spectroscopic redshift measurement.

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LensWatch: I. Resolved HST Observations and Constraints on the Strongly-Lensed Type Ia Supernova 2022qmx ("SN Zwicky")

Supernovae (SNe) that have been multiply-imaged by gravitational lensing are rare and powerful probes for cosmology. Each detection is an opportunity to develop the critical tools and methodologies needed as the sample of lensed SNe increases by orders of magnitude with the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory and Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. The latest such discovery is of the quadruply-imaged Type Ia SN 2022qmx (aka, "SN Zwicky") at $z=0.3544$. SN Zwicky was discovered by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) in spatially unresolved data. Here we present follow-up Hubble Space Telescope observations of SN Zwicky, the first from the multi-cycle "LensWatch" program. We measure photometry for each of the four images of SN Zwicky, which are resolved in three WFC3/UVIS filters (F475W, F625W, F814W) but unresolved with WFC3/IR~F160W, and present an analysis of the lensing system using a variety of independent lens modeling methods. We find consistency between lens model predicted time delays ($\lesssim1$ day), and delays estimated with the single epoch of HST colors ($\lesssim3.5$ days), including the uncertainty from chromatic microlensing ($\sim1$-$1.5$ days). Our lens models converge to an Einstein radius of $θ_E=(0.168^{+0.009}_{-0.005})\prime\prime$, the smallest yet seen in a lensed SN system. The "standard candle" nature of SN Zwicky provides magnification estimates independent of the lens modeling that are brighter than predicted by $\sim1.7^{+0.8}_{-0.6}$mag and $\sim0.9^{+0.8}_{-0.6}$mag for two of the four images, suggesting significant microlensing and/or additional substructure beyond the flexibility of our image-position mass models.

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Lensed Type Ia Supernova "Encore" at z=2: The First Instance of Two Multiply-Imaged Supernovae in the Same Host Galaxy

A bright ($m_{\rm F150W,AB}$=24 mag), $z=1.95$ supernova (SN) candidate was discovered in JWST/NIRCam imaging acquired on 2023 November 17. The SN is quintuply-imaged as a result of strong gravitational lensing by a foreground galaxy cluster, detected in three locations, and remarkably is the second lensed SN found in the same host galaxy. The previous lensed SN was called "Requiem", and therefore the new SN is named "Encore". This makes the MACS J0138.0$-$2155 cluster the first known system to produce more than one multiply-imaged SN. Moreover, both SN Requiem and SN Encore are Type Ia SNe (SNe Ia), making this the most distant case of a galaxy hosting two SNe Ia. Using parametric host fitting, we determine the probability of detecting two SNe Ia in this host galaxy over a $\sim10$ year window to be $\approx3\%$. These observations have the potential to yield a Hubble Constant ($H_0$) measurement with $\sim10\%$ precision, only the third lensed SN capable of such a result, using the three visible images of the SN. Both SN Requiem and SN Encore have a fourth image that is expected to appear within a few years of $\sim2030$, providing an unprecedented baseline for time-delay cosmography.

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Time-Delay Cosmography: Measuring the Hubble Constant and other cosmological parameters with strong gravitational lensing

Multiply lensed sources experience a relative time delay in the arrival of photons. This effect can be used to measure absolute distances and the Hubble constant ($H_0$) and is known as time-delay cosmography. The methodology is independent of the local distance ladder and early-universe physics and provides a precise and competitive measurement of $H_0$. With upcoming observatories, time-delay cosmography can provide a 1% precision measurement of $H_0$ and can decisively shed light on the current reported 'Hubble tension'. This paper presents the theoretical background and the current techniques applied for time-delay cosmographic studies and the measurement of the Hubble constant. The paper describes the challenges and systematics in the different components of the analysis and strategies to mitigate them. The current measurements are discussed in context and the opportunities with the anticipated data sets in the future are laid out.

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Identification of Galaxy-Galaxy Strong Lens Candidates in the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey Using Machine Learning

We perform a search for galaxy-galaxy strong lens systems using a convolutional neural network (CNN) applied to imaging data from the first public data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey (DELVE), which contains $\sim 520$ million astronomical sources covering $\sim 4,000$ $\mathrm{deg}^2$ of the southern sky to a $5σ$ point-source depth of $g=24.3$, $r=23.9$, $i=23.3$, and $z=22.8$ mag. Following the methodology of similar searches using DECam data, we apply color and magnitude cuts to select a catalog of $\sim 11$ million extended astronomical sources. After scoring with our CNN, the highest scoring 50,000 images were visually inspected and assigned a score on a scale from 0 (definitely not a lens) to 3 (very probable lens). We present a list of 581 strong lens candidates, 562 of which are previously unreported. We categorize our candidates using their human-assigned scores, resulting in 55 Grade A candidates, 149 Grade B candidates, and 377 Grade C candidates. We additionally highlight eight potential quadruply lensed quasars from this sample. Due to the location of our search footprint in the northern Galactic cap ($b > 10$ deg) and southern celestial hemisphere (${\rm Dec.}<0$ deg), our candidate list has little overlap with other existing ground-based searches. Where our search footprint does overlap with other searches, we find a significant number of high-quality candidates which were previously unidentified, indicating a degree of orthogonality in our methodology. We report properties of our candidates including apparent magnitude and Einstein radius estimated from the image separation.

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TDCOSMO X. Automated Modeling of 9 Strongly Lensed Quasars and Comparison Between Lens Modeling Software

To use strong gravitational lenses as an astrophysical or cosmological probe, models of their mass distributions are often needed. We present a new, time-efficient automation code for uniform modeling of strongly lensed quasars with GLEE, a lens modeling software, for high-resolution multi-band data. By using the observed positions of the lensed quasars and the spatially extended surface brightness distribution of the lensed quasar host galaxy, we obtain a model of the mass distribution of the lens galaxy. We apply this uniform modeling pipeline to a sample of nine strongly lensed quasars with HST WFC 3 images. The models show in most cases well reconstructed light components and a good alignment between mass and light centroids. We find that the automated modeling code significantly reduces the user input time during the modeling process. The preparation time of required input files is reduced significantly. This automated modeling pipeline can efficiently produce uniform models of extensive lens system samples which can be used for further cosmological analysis. A blind test through a comparison with the results of an independent automated modeling pipeline based on the modeling software Lenstronomy reveals important lessons. Quantities such as Einstein radius, astrometry, mass flattening and position angle are generally robustly determined. Other quantities depend crucially on the quality of the data and the accuracy of the PSF reconstruction. Better data and/or more detailed analysis will be necessary to elevate our automated models to cosmography grade. Nevertheless, our pipeline enables the quick selection of lenses for follow-up monitoring and further modeling, significantly speeding up the construction of cosmography-grade models. This is an important step forward to take advantage of the orders of magnitude increase in the number of lenses expected in the coming decade.

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TDCOSMO. XI. New lensing galaxy redshift and velocity dispersion measurements from Keck spectroscopy of eight lensed quasar systems

We have measured the redshifts and single-aperture velocity dispersions of eight lens galaxies using the data collected by the Echellette Spectrograph and Imager (ESI) and Low Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (LRIS) at W.M. Keck observatory on different observing nights spread over three years (2018-2020). These results, combined with other ancillary data, such as high-resolution images of the lens systems, and time delays, are necessary to increase the sample size of the quasar-galaxy lens systems for which the Hubble constant can be measured, using the time-delay strong lensing method, hence increasing the precision of its inference. Typically, the 2D spectra of the quasar-galaxy lens systems get spatially blended due to seeing by ground-based observations. As a result, the extracted lensing galaxy (deflector) spectra become significantly contaminated by quasar light, which affects the ability to extract meaningful information about the deflector. To account for spatial blending and extract less contaminated and higher signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) 1D spectra of the deflectors, a forward modeling method has been implemented. From the extracted spectra, we have measured redshifts using prominent absorption lines and single aperture velocity dispersions using the penalized pixel fitting code pPXF. In this paper, we report the redshifts and single aperture velocity dispersions of eight lens galaxies - J0147+4630, B0445+123, B0631+519, J0659+1629, J0818-2613, J0924+0219, J1433+6007, and J1817+2729. Among these systems, six do not have previously measured velocity dispersions; for the other two, our measurements are consistent with previously reported values. Additionally, we have measured the previously unknown redshifts of the deflectors in J0818-2613 and J1817+2729 to be $0.866 \pm 0.002$ and $0.408 \pm 0.002$, respectively.

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TDCOSMO. IX. Systematic comparison between lens modelling software programs: time delay prediction for WGD 2038-4008

The importance of alternative methods for measuring the Hubble constant, such as time-delay cosmography, is highlighted by the recent Hubble tension. It is paramount to thoroughly investigate and rule out systematic biases in all measurement methods before we can accept new physics as the source of this tension. In this study, we perform a check for systematic biases in the lens modelling procedure of time-delay cosmography by comparing independent and blind time-delay predictions of the system WGD 2038-4008 from two teams using two different software programs: GLEE and LENSTRONOMY. The predicted time delays from the two teams incorporate the stellar kinematics of the deflector and the external convergence from line-of-sight structures. The un-blinded time-delay predictions from the two teams agree within $1.2σ$, implying that once the time delay is measured the inferred Hubble constant will also be mutually consistent. However, there is a $\sim$4$σ$ discrepancy between the power-law model slope and external shear, which is a significant discrepancy at the level of lens models before the stellar kinematics and the external convergence are incorporated. We identify the difference in the reconstructed point spread function (PSF) to be the source of this discrepancy. When the same reconstructed PSF was used by both teams, we achieved excellent agreement, within $\sim$0.6$σ$, indicating that potential systematics stemming from source reconstruction algorithms and investigator choices are well under control. We recommend that future studies supersample the PSF as needed and marginalize over multiple algorithms or realizations for the PSF reconstruction to mitigate the systematics associated with the PSF. A future study will measure the time delays of the system WGD 2038-4008 and infer the Hubble constant based on our mass models.

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STRIDES: Automated uniform models for 30 quadruply imaged quasars

Gravitational time delays provide a powerful one step measurement of $H_0$, independent of all other probes. One key ingredient in time delay cosmography are high accuracy lens models. Those are currently expensive to obtain, both, in terms of computing and investigator time (10$^{5-6}$ CPU hours and $\sim$ 0.5-1 year, respectively). Major improvements in modeling speed are therefore necessary to exploit the large number of lenses that are forecast to be discovered over the current decade. In order to bypass this roadblock, building on the work by Shajib et al. (2019), we develop an automated modeling pipeline and apply it to a sample of 30 quadruply imaged quasars and one lensed compact galaxy, observed by the Hubble Space Telescope in multiple bands. Our automated pipeline can derive models for 30/31 lenses with few hours of human time and <100 CPU hours of computing time for a typical system. For each lens, we provide measurements of key parameters and predictions of magnification as well as time delays for the multiple images. We characterize the cosmography-readiness of our models using the stability of differences in Fermat potential (proportional to time delay) w.r.t. modeling choices. We find that for 10/30 lenses our models are cosmography or nearly cosmography grade (<3% and 3-5% variations). For 6/30 lenses the models are close to cosmography grade (5-10%). These results are based on informative priors and will need to be confirmed by further analysis. However, they are also likely to improve by extending the pipeline modeling sequence and options. In conclusion, we show that uniform cosmography grade modeling of large strong lens samples is within reach.

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DeepZipper II: Searching for Lensed Supernovae in Dark Energy Survey Data with Deep Learning

Gravitationally lensed supernovae (LSNe) are important probes of cosmic expansion, but they remain rare and difficult to find. Current cosmic surveys likely contain and 5-10 LSNe in total while next-generation experiments are expected to contain several hundreds to a few thousands of these systems. We search for these systems in observed Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-year SN fields -- 10 3-sq. deg. regions of sky imaged in the $griz$ bands approximately every six nights over five years. To perform the search, we utilize the DeepZipper approach: a multi-branch deep learning architecture trained on image-level simulations of LSNe that simultaneously learns spatial and temporal relationships from time series of images. We find that our method obtains a LSN recall of 61.13% and a false positive rate of 0.02% on the DES SN field data. DeepZipper selected 2,245 candidates from a magnitude-limited ($m_i$ $<$ 22.5) catalog of 3,459,186 systems. We employ human visual inspection to review systems selected by the network and find three candidate LSNe in the DES SN fields.

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Time Delay Lens Modelling Challenge

In recent years, breakthroughs in methods and data have enabled gravitational time delays to emerge as a very powerful tool to measure the Hubble constant $H_0$. However, published state-of-the-art analyses require of order 1 year of expert investigator time and up to a million hours of computing time per system. Furthermore, as precision improves, it is crucial to identify and mitigate systematic uncertainties. With this time delay lens modelling challenge we aim to assess the level of precision and accuracy of the modelling techniques that are currently fast enough to handle of order 50 lenses, via the blind analysis of simulated datasets. The results in Rung 1 and Rung 2 show that methods that use only the point source positions tend to have lower precision ($10 - 20\%$) while remaining accurate. In Rung 2, the methods that exploit the full information of the imaging and kinematic datasets can recover $H_0$ within the target accuracy ($ |A| < 2\%$) and precision ($< 6\%$ per system), even in the presence of poorly known point spread function and complex source morphology. A post-unblinding analysis of Rung 3 showed the numerical precision of the ray-traced cosmological simulations to be insufficient to test lens modelling methodology at the percent level, making the results difficult to interpret. A new challenge with improved simulations is needed to make further progress in the investigation of systematic uncertainties. For completeness, we present the Rung 3 results in an appendix, and use them to discuss various approaches to mitigating against similar subtle data generation effects in future blind challenges.

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TDCOSMO IV: Hierarchical time-delay cosmography -- joint inference of the Hubble constant and galaxy density profiles

The H0LiCOW collaboration inferred via gravitational lensing time delays a Hubble constant $H_0=73.3^{+1.7}_{-1.8}$ km s$^{-1}{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, describing deflector mass density profiles by either a power-law or stars plus standard dark matter halos. The mass-sheet transform (MST) that leaves the lensing observables unchanged is considered the dominant source of residual uncertainty in $H_0$. We quantify any potential effect of the MST with flexible mass models that are maximally degenerate with H0. Our calculation is based on a new hierarchical approach in which the MST is only constrained by stellar kinematics. The approach is validated on hydrodynamically simulated lenses. We apply the method to the TDCOSMO sample of 7 lenses (6 from H0LiCOW) and measure $H_0=74.5^{+5.6}_{-6.1}$ km s$^{-1}{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. In order to further constrain the deflector mass profiles, we then add imaging and spectroscopy for 33 strong gravitational lenses from the SLACS sample. For 9 of the SLAC lenses we use resolved kinematics to constrain the stellar anisotropy. From the joint analysis of the TDCOSMO+SLACS sample, we measure $H_0=67.4^{+4.1}_{-3.2}$ km s$^{-1}{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, assuming that the TDCOSMO and SLACS galaxies are drawn from the same parent population. The blind H0LiCOW, TDCOSMO-only and TDCOSMO+SLACS analyses are in mutual statistical agreement. The TDCOSMO+SLACS analysis prefers marginally shallower mass profiles than H0LiCOW or TDCOSMO-only. While our new analysis does not statistically invalidate the mass profile assumptions by H0LiCOW, and thus their $H_0$ measurement relying on those, it demonstrates the importance of understanding the mass density profile of elliptical galaxies. The uncertainties on $H_0$ derived in this paper can be reduced by physical or observational priors on the form of the mass profile, or by additional data, chiefly spatially resolved kinematics of lens galaxies.

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Is every strong lens model unhappy in its own way? Uniform modelling of a sample of 13 quadruply+ imaged quasars

Strong-gravitational lens systems with quadruply-imaged quasars (quads) are unique probes to address several fundamental problems in cosmology and astrophysics. Although they are intrinsically very rare, ongoing and planned wide-field deep-sky surveys are set to discover thousands of such systems in the next decade. It is thus paramount to devise a general framework to model strong-lens systems to cope with this large influx without being limited by expert investigator time. We propose such a general modelling framework (implemented with the publicly available software Lenstronomy) and apply it to uniformly model three-band Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 images of 13 quads. This is the largest uniformly modelled sample of quads to date and paves the way for a variety of studies. To illustrate the scientific content of the sample, we investigate the alignment between the mass and light distribution in the deflectors. The position angles of these distributions are well-aligned, except when there is strong external shear. However, we find no correlation between the ellipticity of the light and mass distributions. We also show that the observed flux-ratios between the images depart significantly from the predictions of simple smooth models. The departures are strongest in the bluest band, consistent with microlensing being the dominant cause in addition to millilensing. Future papers will exploit this rich dataset in combination with ground based spectroscopy and time delays to determine quantities such as the Hubble constant, the free streaming length of dark matter, and the normalization of the initial stellar mass function.

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TDCOSMO. I. An exploration of systematic uncertainties in the inference of $H_0$ from time-delay cosmography

Time-delay cosmography of lensed quasars has achieved 2.4% precision on the measurement of the Hubble constant, $H_0$. As part of an ongoing effort to uncover and control systematic uncertainties, we investigate three potential sources: 1- stellar kinematics, 2- line-of-sight effects, and 3- the deflector mass model. To meet this goal in a quantitative way, we reproduced the H0LiCOW/SHARP/STRIDES (hereafter TDCOSMO) procedures on a set of real and simulated data, and we find the following. First, stellar kinematics cannot be a dominant source of error or bias since we find that a systematic change of 10% of measured velocity dispersion leads to only a 0.7% shift on $H_0$ from the seven lenses analyzed by TDCOSMO. Second, we find no bias to arise from incorrect estimation of the line-of-sight effects. Third, we show that elliptical composite (stars + dark matter halo), power-law, and cored power-law mass profiles have the flexibility to yield a broad range in $H_0$ values. However, the TDCOSMO procedures that model the data with both composite and power-law mass profiles are informative. If the models agree, as we observe in real systems owing to the "bulge-halo" conspiracy, $H_0$ is recovered precisely and accurately by both models. If the two models disagree, as in the case of some pathological models illustrated here, the TDCOSMO procedure either discriminates between them through the goodness of fit, or it accounts for the discrepancy in the final error bars provided by the analysis. This conclusion is consistent with a reanalysis of six of the TDCOSMO (real) lenses: the composite model yields $74.0^{+1.7}_{-1.8}$ $km.s^{-1}.Mpc^{-1}$, while the power-law model yields $H_0=74.2^{+1.6}_{-1.6}$ $km.s^{-1}.Mpc^{-1}$. In conclusion, we find no evidence of bias or errors larger than the current statistical uncertainties reported by TDCOSMO.

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