arXiv subjects

A. Kilcik

Publications and source records attributed to A. Kilcik.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2020

Temporal and Periodic Variation of the MCMESI for the Last Two Solar Cycles; Comparison with the Number of Different Class X-Ray Solar Flares

In this study we compared the temporal and periodic variations of the Maximum CME Speed Index (MCMESI) and the number of different class (C, M, and X) solar X-Ray flares for the last two solar cycles (Cycle 23 and 24). To obtain the correlation between the MCMESI and solar flare numbers the cross correlation analysis was applied to monthly data sets. Also to investigate the periodic behavior of all data sets the Multi Taper Method (MTM) and the Morlet wavelet analysis method were performed with daily data from 2009 to 2018. To evaluate our wavelet analysis Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT) and Wavelet Transform Coherence (WTC) methods were performed. Causal relationships between datasets were further examined by Convergence Cross Mapping (CCM) method. In results of our analysis we found followings; 1) The C class X-Ray flare numbers increased about 16 % during the solar cycle 24 compared to cycle 23, while all other data sets decreased; the MCMESI decreased about 16 % and the number of M and X class flares decreased about 32 %. 2) All the X-Ray solar flare classes show remarkable positive correlation with the MCMESI. While the correlation between the MCMESI and C class flares comes from the general solar cycle trend, it mainly results from the fluctuations in the data in case of the X class flares. 3) In general, all class flare numbers and the MCMESI show similar periodic behavior. 4) The 546 days periodicity detected in the MCMESI may not be of solar origin or at least the solar flares are not the source of this periodicity. 5) C and M Class solar flares have a stronger causative effect on the MCMESI compared to X class solar flares. However the only bidirectional causal relationship is obtained between the MCMESI and C class flare numbers.

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arXiv2020

Nearly Century-scale Variation of the Sun's Radius

The Kodaikanal Archive Program (India) is now available to the scientific community in digital form as daily digitized solar white light pictures, from 1923 to 2011. We present here the solar radius data, obtained after a painstaking effort to remove all effects that contribute to the error in their measurements (limb darkening, distortion of the objective lens, refraction, other instrumental effects, etc.). These data were analyzed to reveal any significant periodic variations, after applying a multi-taper method with red noise approximation and the Morlet wavelet transform analysis. After removing obvious periodic variations (such as solar rotation and Earth annual rotation), we found a possible cycle variation at 11.4 yr, quasi biennial oscillations at 1.5 and 3.8 yr, and Rieger-type periodicity at ~159, 91, and 63 days. Another ~7.5 yr periodicity (as a mean) resulting from two other main periodicities detected at 6.3-7.8 yr can be identified as an atmospheric component. The detrending data show, over a mean radius of 959".7 +/- 0".7, a residual of less than ~(-)1 mas over the time period of analysis: if not spurious, this estimate indicates a faint decline, but probably confirms more the constancy of the solar diameter during the considered ranging time, within instrumental and methodological limits. The Kodaikanal long quality observations contribute to international efforts to bring past solar data measurements to the community to further explore issues, for instance, those of the luminosity/radius properties that could be used to pinpoint the "seat of the solar cycle."

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arXiv2018

How big is the Sun: Solar diameter changes over time

The measurement of the Sun's diameter has been first tackled by the Greek astronomers from a geometric point of view. Their estimation of ~1800", although incorrect, was not truly called into question for several centuries. The first pioneer works for measuring the Sun's diameter with an astrometric precision were made around the year 1660 by Gabriel Mouton, then by Picard and La Hire. A canonical value of the solar radius of 959".63 was adopted by Auwers in 1891. Despite considerable efforts during the second half of the XXth century, involving dedicated space instruments, no consensus was reached on this issue. However, with the advent of high sensitivity instruments on board satellites, such as the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO) and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) aboard NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), it was possible to extract with an unprecedented accuracy the surface gravity oscillation f modes, over nearly two solar cycles, from 1996 to 2017. Their analysis in the range of angular degree l=140-300 shows that the so-called "seismic radius" exhibits a temporal variability in anti-phase with the solar activity. Even if the link between the two radii (photospheric and seismic) can be made only through modeling, such measurements provide an interesting alternative which led to a revision of the standard solar radius by the International Astronomical Union in 2015. This new look on such modern measurements of the Sun's global changes from 1996 to 2017 gives a new way for peering into the solar interior, mainly to better understand the subsurface fields which play an important role in the implementation of the solar cycles.

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arXiv2017

The ratio between the number of sunspot and the number of sunspot groups

Data from three solar observatories, Learmonth, Holloman, and San Vito, are used to study the variations in the average number of sunspots per sunspot group. It is found that the different types of sunspot groups and the number of sunspots in these groups have different solar cycle and cycle to cycle variations. The varying ratio between the average number of sunspots and the number of sunspot groups is shown to be a real feature and not a result of changing observational instruments, observers experience, calculation schemes, etc., and is a result of variations in the solar magnetic fields. Therefore, the attempts to minimize the discrepancies between the sunspot number and sunspot group series are not justified, and lead to the loss of important information about the variability of the solar dynamo.

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arXiv2017

Temporal and Periodic Variations of Sunspot Counts in Flaring and Non-flaring Active Regions

We analyzed temporal and periodic behavior of sunspot counts (SSCs) in flaring (C, M, or X class flares), and non-flaring active regions (ARs) for the almost two solar cycles (1996 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: i) The temporal variation of monthly means of daily total SSCs in flaring and non-flaring ARs are different and these differences are also varying from cycle to cycle; temporal profile of non-flaring ARs are wider than the flaring ones during the solar cycle 23, while they are almost the same during the current cycle 24. The second peak (second maximum) of flaring ARs are strongly dominate during current cycle 24, while this difference is not such a remarkable during cycle 23. The amplitude of SSCs in the non-flaring ARs are comparable during the first and second peaks (maxima) of the current solar cycle, while the first peak is almost not existent in case of the flaring ARs. ii) Periodic variations observed in SSCs of flaring and non-flaring ARs are quite different in both MTM spectrum and wavelet scalograms and these variations are also different from one cycle to another; the largest detected period in the flaring ARs is 113 days, while there are much higher periodicities (327, 312, and 256 days) in non-flaring ARs. There are no meaningful periodicities in MTM spectrum of flaring ARs exceeding 45 days during solar cycle 24, while a 113 days periodicity detected from flaring ARs of solar cycle 23. For the non-flaring ARs the largest period is 72 days during solar cycle 24, while the largest period is 327 days during current cycle.

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arXiv2016

Temporal Offsets between Maximum CME Speed Index and Solar, Geomagnetic, and Interplanetary Indicators during Solar Cycle 23 and the Ascending Phase of Cycle 24

On the basis of morphological analysis of yearly values of the maximum CME (coronal mass ejection) speed index, the sunspot number and total sunspot area, sunspot magnetic field, and solar flare index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field strength, and the geomagnetic Ap and Dst indices, we point out the particularities of solar and geomagnetic activity during the last cycle 23, the long minimum which followed it and the ascending branch of cycle 24. We also analyze temporal offset between the maximum CME speed index and the above-mentioned solar, geomagnetic, and interplanetary indices. It is found that this solar activity index, analyzed jointly with other solar activity, interplanetary parameters, and geomagnetic activity indices, shows a hysteresis phenomenon. It is observed that these parameters follow different paths for the ascending and the descending phases of solar cycle 23. It is noticed that the hysteresis phenomenon represents a clue in the search for physical processes responsible for linking the solar activity to the near-Earth and geomagnetic responses.

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arXiv2016

Active Latitude Oscillations Observed on the Sun

We investigate periodicities in mean heliographic latitudes of sunspot groups, called active latitudes, for the last six complete solar cycles (1945-2008). For this purpose, the Multi Taper Method and Morlet Wavelet analysis methods were used. We found the following: 1) Solar rotation periodicities (26-38 days) are present in active latitudes of both hemispheres for all the investigated cycles (18 to 23). 2) Both in the northern and southern hemispheres, active latitudes drifted towards the equator starting from the beginning to the end of each cycle by following an oscillating path. These motions are well described by a second order polynomial. 3) There are no meaningful periods between 55 and about 300 days in either hemisphere for all cycles. 4) A 300 to 370 day periodicity appears in both hemispheres for Cycle 23, in the northern hemisphere for Cycle 20, and in the southern hemisphere for Cycle 18.

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arXiv2014

Sunspot Count Periodicities in Different Zurich Sunspot Group Classes since 1986

In this study, we used two methods to investigate the periodic behavior of sunspot counts in four categories for the time period January 1986-October 2013. These categories include the counts from simple (A and B), medium (C), large (D, E, and F), and final (H) sunspot groups. We used: i) the Multi-taper Method with red noise approximation, and ii) the Morlet wavelet transform for periodicity analysis. Our main findings are: (1) the solar rotation periodicity of about 25 to 37 days, which is of obvious significance, is found in all groups with at least a 95% significance level; (2) the periodic behavior of a cycle is strongly related to its amplitude and group distribution during the cycle; (3) the appearance of periods follow the amplitude of the investigated solar cycles, (4) meaningful periods do not appear during the minimum phases of the investigated cycles. We would like to underline that the cyclic behavior of all categories is not completely the same; there are some differences between these groups. This result can provide a clue for the better understanding of solar cycles.

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arXiv2012

Transverse Motions of Chromospheric Type II Spicules Observed by the New Solar Telescope

Using high resolution off-band \ha\ data from the New Solar Telescope and Morlet wavelet analysis technique, we analyzed transverse motions of type II spicules observed near the North Pole of the Sun. Our new findings are that i) some of the observed type II spicules display kink or an inverse "Y" features, suggesting that their origin may be due to magnetic reconnection, and ii) type II spicules tend to display coherent transverse motions/oscillations. Also, the wavelet analysis detected significant presence of high frequency oscillations in type II spicules, ranging from 30 to 180 s with the the average period of 90 s. We conclude that at least some of type II spicules and their coherent transverse motions may be caused by reconnection between large scale fields rooted in the intergranular lanes and and small-scale emerging dipoles, a process that is know to generate high frequency kink mode MHD waves propagating along the magnetic field lines.

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arXiv2011

Maximum Coronal Mass Ejection Speed as an Indicator of Solar and Geomagnetic Activities

We investigate the relationship between the monthly averaged maximal speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), international sunspot number (ISSN), and the geomagnetic Dst and Ap indices covering the 1996-2008 time interval (solar cycle 23). Our new findings are as follows. (1) There is a noteworthy relationship between monthly averaged maximum CME speeds and sunspot numbers, Ap and Dst indices. Various peculiarities in the monthly Dst index are correlated better with the fine structures in the CME speed profile than that in the ISSN data. (2) Unlike the sunspot numbers, the CME speed index does not exhibit a double peak maximum. Instead, the CME speed profile peaks during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Similar to the Ap index, both CME speed and the Dst indices lag behind the sunspot numbers by several months. (3) The CME number shows a double peak similar to that seen in the sunspot numbers. The CME occurrence rate remained very high even near the minimum of the solar cycle 23, when both the sunspot number and the CME average maximum speed were reaching their minimum values. (4) A well-defined peak of the Ap index between 2002 May and 2004 August was co-temporal with the excess of the mid-latitude coronal holes during solar cycle 23. The above findings suggest that the CME speed index may be a useful indicator of both solar and geomagnetic activities. It may have advantages over the sunspot numbers, because it better reflects the intensity of Earth-directed solar eruptions.

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arXiv2011

Time Distributions of Large and Small Sunspot Groups Over Four Solar Cycles

Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 2023 by using Rome (cycles 2021) and Learmonth Solar Observatory (cycles 2223) SG numbers. All SGs recorded during these time intervals were separated into two groups. The first group includes small SGs (A, B, C, H, and J classes by Zurich classification) and the second group consists of large SGs (D, E, F, and G classes). We then calculated small and large SG numbers from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We report that the time variations of small and large SG numbers are asymmetric except for the solar cycle 22. In general large SG numbers appear to reach their maximum in the middle of the solar cycle (phase 0.450.5), while the international sunspot numbers and the small SG numbers generally peak much earlier (solar cycle phase 0.290.35). Moreover, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the facular area, and the maximum CME speed show better agreement with the large SG numbers than they do with the small SG numbers. Our results suggest that the large SG numbers are more likely to shed light on solar activity and its geophysical implications. Our findings may also influence our understanding of long term variations of the total solar irradiance, which is thought to be an important factor in the Sun - Earth climate relationship.

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arXiv2011

Properties of Umbral Dots as Measured from the New Solar Telescope Data and MHD Simulations

We studied bright umbral dots (UDs) detected in a moderate size sunspot and compared their statistical properties to recent MHD models. The study is based on high resolution data recorded by the New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory and 3D MHD simulations of sunspots. Observed UDs, living longer than 150 s, were detected and tracked in a 46 min long data set, using an automatic detection code. Total 1553 (620) UDs were detected in the photospheric (low chromospheric) data. Our main findings are: i) none of the analyzed UDs is precisely circular, ii) the diameter-intensity relationship only holds in bright umbral areas, and iii) UD velocities are inversely related to their lifetime. While nearly all photospheric UDs can be identified in the low chromospheric images, some small closely spaced UDs appear in the low chromosphere as a single cluster. Slow moving and long living UDs seem to exist in both the low chromosphere and photosphere, while fast moving and short living UDs are mainly detected in the photospheric images. Comparison to the 3D MHD simulations showed that both types of UDs display, on average, very similar statistical characteristics. However, i) the average number of observed UDs per unit area is smaller than that of the model UDs, and ii) on average, the diameter of model UDs is slightly larger than that of observed ones.

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arXiv2008

Nonlinear Prediction of Solar Cycle 24

Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and has even been correlated speculatively with changes in global weather patterns. This paper investigates trends in sunspot activity, using new techniques for decadal-scale prediction of the present solar cycle (cycle 24). First, Hurst exponent $H$ analysis is used to investigate the autocorrelation structure of the putative dynamics; then the Sugihara-May algorithm is used to predict the ascension time and the maximum intensity of the current sunspot cycle. Here we report $H$ = 0.86 for the complete sunspot number dataset (1700-2007) and $H$ = 0.88 for the reliable sunspot data set (1848-2007). Using the Sugihara-May algorithm analysis, we forecast that cycle 24 will reach its maximum in December 2012 at approximately 87 sunspots units.

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