arXiv subjects

A. Makai Baker

Publications and source records attributed to A. Makai Baker.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Licence to Bin: Accurate and Scalable Inference for Binary Neutron Stars in Next-Generation Gravitational-Wave Detectors

Next-generation gravitational-wave observatories will observe binary neutron-star mergers with much higher signal-to-noise ratios, over much longer durations and across broader frequency bands than current detectors. These long-duration signals present a major computational challenge for Bayesian parameter estimation. Reduced-order quadrature is a promising approach for accelerating inference, but in this regime its standard construction encounters severe memory and accuracy limitations. We present a practical reduced-order quadrature construction for long binary neutron-star signals with time-dependent detector response and full effects of the observatories' free-spectral range. Our approach combines improved adaptive frequency sampling, disk-backed streaming, and subbanded reduced-order quadrature construction, enabling efficient and accurate reduced-order models for signals that were previously intractable. We demonstrate for the first time reduced-order Bayesian inference on an approximately 2 h binary neutron-star signal extending down to 5 Hz and with signal-to-noise ratio 2090. We show the resulting reduced-order quadrature remains sufficiently accurate for practical inference. The full analysis is carried out in about 48 h using 128 CPU cores. We also find that, when time-dependent detector-response effects are included, a single Cosmic Explorer detector can localize such a signal to a 90% credible sky area of approximately $41~\mathrm{deg}^2$, with important implications for multimessenger astronomy and cosmology. These results demonstrate that reduced-order methods can make next-generation binary neutron-star inference computationally feasible.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Most Strong Lensing Deflectors in the AGEL Survey Are in Group and Cluster Environments

The environments of deflectors in strong lensing systems affect our ability to test cosmological models and constrain evolutionary properties of galaxies. Here we measure the deflector scale (Einstein mass) and deflector environment (halo mass) of 89 spectroscopically confirmed strong lenses in the ASTRO3D Galaxy Evolution With Lenses (AGEL) survey. We classify deflector scale by measuring $θ_{\rm{E}}$ to determine the mass enclosed by the Einstein radius, $M(<θ_{\rm{E}})$. We quantify deflector environment by using photometric redshifts to determine the galaxy surface density to the fifth-nearest neighbor $Σ_5(z)$. We find that 47.2% of our deflectors are embedded in cluster environments, whereas only 9.0% have cluster-scale Einstein radii (masses). We measure a weak correlation ($r = 0.38$) between Einstein mass and $Σ_5(z)$, suggesting that the assumption of single galaxy-scale deflectors in lens modeling is overly-simplified. We hypothesize that the weak correlation results from galaxy-scale bias in the original AGEL selection and the observational challenge of detecting faint arcs with large Einstein radii. Comparing number densities, $N_{\rm{gal}}$, between AGEL and control fields, we find that AGEL deflectors are in systematically denser environments. Our study provides a method to identify strong lenses as a function of deflector environment and approximate the impact of large-scale environment in lens modeling. We provide the measured lensing parameters for our 89 AGEL systems as well as $z_{\rm{phot}}$ and $r$-mag (AB) maps of the line-of-sight.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The AGEL Survey Data Release 2: A Gravitational Lens Sample for Galaxy Evolution and Cosmology

The ASTRO 3D Galaxy Evolution with Lenses (AGEL) Survey is an ongoing effort to spectroscopically confirm a diverse sample of gravitational lenses with high spatial resolution imaging, to facilitate a broad range of science outcomes. The AGEL systems span single galaxy-scale deflectors to groups and clusters, and include rare targets such as galaxy-scale lenses with multiple sources, lensed quiescent galaxies, and Einstein rings. We build on the 77 systems presented in Tran et al. 2022 (AGEL data release 1) to present a total 138 lenses, and high resolution F140W and F200LP Hubble Space Telescope images for 71 lenses from a completed HST SNAP program. Lens candidates were originally identified by convolutional neural networks in the DES and DECaLS imaging fields, and of the targets with follow-up spectroscopy we find a high (96%) success rate. Compared with other spectroscopic lens samples, AGEL lenses tend to have both higher redshift deflectors and sources. We briefly discuss the common causes of false-positive candidates, and strategies for mitigating false-positives in next generation lens searches. Lastly, we present 6 galaxy-scale double-source plane lenses useful for cosmological analyses. With next-generation telescopes and surveys such as Euclid, Vera Rubin's Legacy Survey of Space and Time, Keck Observatory's KAPA program, and 4MOST's 4SLSLS surveys on the horizon, the AGEL survey represents a pathfinder for refining automated candidate search methods and identifying and triaging candidates for followup based on scientific potential.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Significant challenges for astrophysical inference with next-generation gravitational-wave observatories

The next generation of gravitational-wave observatories will achieve unprecedented strain sensitivities with an expanded observing band. They will detect ${\cal O}(10^5)$ binary neutron star (BNS) mergers every year, the loudest of which will be in the band for $\approx 90$ minutes with signal-to-noise ratios $\approx 1500$. Current techniques will not be able to determine the astrophysical parameters of the loudest of next-gen BNS signals. We show that subtleties arising from the rotation of the Earth and the free-spectral range of gravitational-wave interferometers dramatically increases the complexity of next-gen BNS signals compared to the one-minute signals seen by LIGO--Virgo. Various compression methods currently relied upon to speed up the most expensive BNS calculations -- reduced-order quadrature, multi-banding, and relative binning -- will no longer be effective. We carry out reduced-order inference on a simulated next-gen BNS signal taking into account the Earth's rotation and the observatories' free-spectral range. We show that standard data compression techniques become impractical, and the full problem becomes computationally infeasible, when we include data below $\approx 16$Hz -- a part of the observing band that is critical for precise sky localisation. We discuss potential paths towards solving this complex problem.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

AGEL: Is the Conflict Real? Investigating Galaxy Evolution Models using Strong Lensing at 0.3 < z < 0.9

Observed evolution of the total mass distribution with redshift is crucial to testing galaxy evolution theories. To measure the total mass distribution, strong gravitational lenses complement the resolved dynamical observations currently limited to $z \lesssim 0.5$. Here we present the lens models for a pilot sample of seven galaxy-scale lenses from the ASTRO3D Galaxy Evolution with Lenses (AGEL) survey. The AGEL lenses, modeled using HST/WFC3-F140W images with Gravitational Lens Efficient Explorer (GLEE) software, have deflector redshifts between $0.3 < z_{\rm defl} < 0.9$. Assuming a power-law density profile with slope $γ$, we measure the total density profile for the deflector galaxies via lens modeling. We also measure the stellar velocity dispersions ($σ_{\rm obs}$) for four lenses and obtain $σ_{\rm obs}$ from SDSS-BOSS for the remaining lenses to test our lens models by comparing observed and model-predicted velocity dispersions. For the seven AGEL lenses, we measure an average density profile slope of $-1.95 \pm 0.09$ and a $γ$--$z$ relation that does not evolve with redshift at $z<1$. Although our result is consistent with some observations and simulations, it differs from other studies at $z<1$ that suggest the $γ$--$z$ relation evolves with redshift. The apparent conflicts among observations and simulations may be due to a combination of 1) systematics in the lensing and dynamical modeling; 2) challenges in comparing observations with simulations; and 3) assuming a simple power-law for the total mass distribution. By providing more lenses at $z_{\rm defl} > 0.5$, the AGEL survey will provide stronger constraints on whether the mass profiles evolve with redshift as predicted by current theoretical models.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

GWCloud: a searchable repository for the creation and curation of gravitational-wave inference results

There are at present ${\cal O}(100)$ gravitational-wave candidates from compact binary mergers reported in the astronomical literature. As detector sensitivities are improved, the catalog will swell in size: first to ${\cal O}(1000)$ events in the A+ era and then to ${\cal O}(10^6)$ events in the era of third-generation observatories like Cosmic Explorer and the Einstein Telescope. Each event is analyzed using Bayesian inference to determine properties of the source including component masses, spins, tidal parameters, and the distance to the source. These inference products are the fodder for some of the most exciting gravitational-wave science, enabling us to measure the expansion of the Universe with standard sirens, to characterise the neutron star equation of state, and to unveil how and where gravitational-wave sources are assembled. In order to maximize the science from the coming deluge of detections, we introduce GWCloud, a searchable repository for the creation and curation of gravitational-wave inference products. It is designed with five pillars in mind: uniformity of results, reproducibility of results, stability of results, access to the astronomical community, and efficient use of computing resources. We describe how to use GWCloud with examples, which readers can replicate using the companion code to this paper. We describe our long-term vision for GWCloud.

gr-qc↗