arXiv subjects

A. P. Dawid

Publications and source records attributed to A. P. Dawid.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2014

Bounding the Probability of Causation in Mediation Analysis

Given empirical evidence for the dependence of an outcome variable on an exposure variable, we can typically only provide bounds for the "probability of causation" in the case of an individual who has developed the outcome after being exposed. We show how these bounds can be adapted or improved if further information becomes available. In addition to reviewing existing work on this topic, we provide a new analysis for the case where a mediating variable can be observed. In particular we show how the probability of causation can be bounded when there is no direct effect and no confounding. Keywords: Causal inference, Mediation Analysis, Probability of Causation

math.ST↗

arXiv2014

Discussion of "On the Birnbaum Argument for the Strong Likelihood Principle"

Deborah Mayo claims to have refuted Birnbaum's argument that the Likelihood Principle is a logical consequence of the Sufficiency and Conditionality Principles. However, this claim fails because her interpretation of the Conditionality Principle is different from Birnbaum's. Birnbaum's proof cannot be so readily dismissed. [arXiv:1302.7021]

stat.ME↗

arXiv2009

Jeffreys's law for general games of prediction: in search of a theory

We are interested in the following version of Jeffreys's law: if two predictors are predicting the same sequence of events and either is doing a satisfactory job, they will make similar predictions in the long run. We give a classification of instances of Jeffreys's law, illustrated with examples.

math.ST↗