arXiv subjects

A. P. Rouillard

Publications and source records attributed to A. P. Rouillard.

26 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory

We present an advance towards accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over 2/3 of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by 5 in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60 degree longitudinal width, constant speed and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for 1 correct prediction, 2 to 3 false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 +/- 16.6 hours difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

A propagation tool to connect remote-sensing observations with in-situ measurements of heliospheric structures

The remoteness of the Sun and the harsh conditions prevailing in the solar corona have so far limited the observational data used in the study of solar physics to remote-sensing observations taken either from the ground or from space. In contrast, the `solar wind laboratory' is directly measured in situ by a fleet of spacecraft measuring the properties of the plasma and magnetic fields at specific points in space. Since 2007, the solar-terrestrial relations observatory (STEREO) has been providing images of the solar wind that flows between the solar corona and spacecraft making in-situ measurements. This has allowed scientists to directly connect processes imaged near the Sun with the subsequent effects measured in the solar wind. This new capability prompted the development of a series of tools and techniques to track heliospheric structures through space. This article presents one of these tools, a web-based interface called the 'Propagation Tool' that offers an integrated research environment to study the evolution of coronal and solar wind structures, such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs). These structures can be propagated from the Sun outwards to or alternatively inwards from planets and spacecraft situated in the inner and outer heliosphere. In this paper, we present the global architecture of the tool, discuss some of the assumptions made to simulate the evolution of the structures and show how the tool connects to different databases.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2016

Long-Term Tracking of Corotating Density Structures using Heliospheric Imaging

The systematic monitoring of the solar wind in high-cadence and high-resolution heliospheric images taken by the Solar-Terrestrial Relation Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft permits the study of the spatial and temporal evolution of variable solar wind flows from the Sun out to 1~AU, and beyond. As part of the EU Framework 7 (FP7) Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis and Techniques Service (HELCATS) project, we have generated a catalogue listing the properties of 190 corotating structures well-observed in images taken by the Heliospheric Imager instruments on-board STEREO-A. We present here one of very few long-term analyses of solar wind structures advected by the background solar wind. This analysis confirms that most of the corotating density structures detected by the heliospheric imagers comprises a series of density inhomogeneities advected by the slow solar wind that eventually become entrained by stream interaction regions. We have derived the spatial-temporal evolution of each of these corotating density structures by using a well-established fitting technique. The mean radial propagation speed of the corotating structures is found to be $311 \pm 31$ km~s$^{-1}$. We predicted the arrival time of each corotating density structure at different probes. We show that the speeds of the corotating density structures derived using our fitting technique track well the long-term variation of the radial speed of the slow solar wind during solar minimum years (2007--2008). Furthermore, we demonstrate that these features originate near the coronal neutral line that eventually becomes the heliospheric current sheet.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

Flux-tube geometry and solar wind speed during an activity cycle

The solar wind speed at 1 AU shows variations in latitude and in time which reflect the evolution of the global background magnetic field during the activity cycle. It is commonly accepted that the terminal wind speed in a magnetic flux-tube is anti-correlated with its expansion ratio, which motivated the definition of widely-used semi-empirical scaling laws relating one to the other. In practice, such scaling laws require ad-hoc corrections. A predictive law based solely on physical principles is still missing. We test whether the flux-tube expansion is the controlling factor of the wind speed at all phases of the cycle and at all latitudes using a very large sample of wind-carrying open magnetic flux-tubes. We furthermore search for additional physical parameters based on the geometry of the coronal magnetic field which have an influence on the terminal wind flow speed. We use MHD simulations of the corona and wind coupled to a dynamo model to provide a large statistical ensemble of open flux-tubes which we analyse conjointly in order to identify relations of dependence between the wind speed and geometrical parameters of the flux-tubes which are valid globally (for all latitudes and moments of the cycle). Our study confirms that the terminal speed of the solar wind depends very strongly on the geometry of the open magnetic flux-tubes through which it flows. The total flux-tube expansion is more clearly anti-correlated with the wind speed for fast rather than for slow wind flows, and effectively controls the locations of these flows during solar minima. Overall, the actual asymptotic wind speeds attained are also strongly dependent on field-line inclination and magnetic field amplitude at the foot-points. We suggest ways of including these parameters on future predictive scaling-laws for the solar wind speed.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2013

A Plasma β Transition Within a Propagating Flux Rope

We present a 2.5D MHD simulation of a magnetic flux rope (FR) propagating in the heliosphere and investigate the cause of the observed sharp plasma beta transition. Specifically, we consider a strong internal magnetic field and an explosive fast start, such that the plasma beta is significantly lower in the FR than the sheath region that is formed ahead. This leads to an unusual FR morphology in the first stage of propagation, while the more traditional view (e.g. from space weather simulations like Enlil) of a `pancake' shaped FR is observed as it approaches 1 AU. We investigate how an equipartition line, defined by a magnetic Weber number, surrounding a core region of a propagating FR can demarcate a boundary layer where there is a sharp transition in the plasma beta. The substructure affects the distribution of toroidal flux, with the majority of the flux remaining in a small core region which maintains a quasi-cylindrical structure. Quantitatively, we investigate a locus of points where the kinetic energy density of the relative inflow field is equal to the energy density of the transverse magnetic field (i.e. effective tension force). The simulation provides compelling evidence that at all heliocentric distances the distribution of toroidal magnetic flux away from the FR axis is not linear; with 80% of the toroidal flux occurring within 40% of the distance from the FR axis. Thus our simulation displays evidence that the competing ideas of a pancaking structure observed remotely can coexist with a quasi-cylindrical magnetic structure seen in situ.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

A Coronal Hole's Effects on CME Shock Morphology in the Inner Heliosphere

We use STEREO imagery to study the morphology of a shock driven by a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) launched from the Sun on 2011 March 7. The source region of the CME is located just to the east of a coronal hole. The CME ejecta is deflected away from the hole, in contrast with the shock, which readily expands into the fast outflow from the coronal hole. The result is a CME with ejecta not well centered within the shock surrounding it. The shock shape inferred from the imaging is compared with in situ data at 1 AU, where the shock is observed near Earth by the Wind spacecraft, and at STEREO-A. Shock normals computed from the in situ data are consistent with the shock morphology inferred from imaging.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2010

Tracking Streamer Blobs Into the Heliosphere

In this paper, we use coronal and heliospheric images from the STEREO spacecraft to track streamer blobs into the heliosphere and to observe them being swept up and compressed by the fast wind from low-latitude coronal holes. From an analysis of their elongation/time tracks, we discover a 'locus of enhanced visibility' where neighboring blobs pass each other along the line of sight and their corotating spiral is seen edge on. The detailed shape of this locus accounts for a variety of east-west asymmetries and allows us to recognize the spiral of blobs by its signatures in the STEREO images: In the eastern view from STEREO-A, the leading edge of the spiral is visible as a moving wavefront where foreground ejections overtake background ejections against the sky and then fade. In the western view from STEREO-B, the leading edge is only visible close to the Sun-spacecraft line where the radial path of ejections nearly coincides with the line of sight. In this case, we can track large-scale waves continuously back to the lower corona and see that they originate as face-on blobs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2009

Signatures of Interchange Reconnection: STEREO, ACE and Hinode Observations Combined

Combining STEREO, ACE and Hinode observations has presented an opportunity to follow a filament eruption and coronal mass ejection (CME) on the 17th of October 2007 from an active region (AR) inside a coronal hole (CH) into the heliosphere. This particular combination of `open' and closed magnetic topologies provides an ideal scenario for interchange reconnection to take place. With Hinode and STEREO data we were able to identify the emergence time and type of structure seen in the in-situ data four days later. On the 21st, ACE observed in-situ the passage of an ICME with `open' magnetic topology. The magnetic field configuration of the source, a mature AR located inside an equatorial CH, has important implications for the solar and interplanetary signatures of the eruption. We interpret the formation of an `anemone' structure of the erupting AR and the passage in-situ of the ICME being disconnected at one leg, as manifested by uni-directional suprathermal electron flux in the ICME, to be a direct result of interchange reconnection between closed loops of the CME originating from the AR and `open' field lines of the surrounding CH.

astro-ph.SR↗