arXiv subjects

A. Pulkkinen

Publications and source records attributed to A. Pulkkinen.

20 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2015

Predicting the magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections arriving at Earth: 1. Initial Architecture

The process by which the Sun affects the terrestrial environment on short timescales is predominately driven by the amount of magnetic reconnection between the solar wind and Earth's magnetosphere. Reconnection occurs most efficiently when the solar wind magnetic field has a southward component. The most severe impacts are during the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) when the magnetosphere is both compressed and magnetically connected to the heliospheric environment. Unfortunately, forecasting magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections remains elusive. Here we report how, by combining a statistically robust helicity rule for a CME's solar origin with a simplified flux rope topology the magnetic vectors within the Earth-directed segment of a CME can be predicted. In order to test the validity of this proof-of-concept architecture for estimating the magnetic vectors within CMEs, a total of eight CME events (between 2010 and 2014) have been investigated. With a focus on the large false alarm of January 2014, this work highlights the importance of including the early evolutionary effects of a CME for forecasting purposes. The angular rotation in the predicted magnetic field closely follows the broad rotational structure seen within the in situ data. This time-varying field estimate is implemented into a process to quantitatively predict a time-varying Kp index that is described in detail in paper II. Future statistical work, quantifying the uncertainties in this process, may improve the more heuristic approach used by early forecasting systems.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2013

Tracking the momentum flux of a CME and quantifying its influence on geomagnetically induced currents at Earth

We investigate a CME propagating towards Earth on 29 March 2011. This event is specifically chosen for its predominately northward directed magnetic field, so that the influence from the momentum flux onto Earth can be isolated. We focus our study on understanding how a small Earth-directed segment propagates. Mass images are created from the white-light cameras onboard STEREO which are also converted into mass height-time maps (mass J-maps). The mass tracks on these J-maps correspond to the sheath region between the CME and its associated shock front as detected by in situ measurements at L1. A time-series of mass measurements from the STEREO COR-2A instrument are made along the Earth propagation direction. Qualitatively, this mass time-series shows a remarkable resemblance to the L1 in situ density series. The in situ measurements are used as inputs into a 3D magnetospheric space weather simulation from CCMC. These simulations display a sudden compression of the magnetosphere from the large momentum flux at the leading edge of the CME and predictions are made for the time-derivative of the magnetic field (dB/dt) on the ground. The predicted dB/dt were then compared with observations from specific equatorially-located ground stations and show notable similarity. This study of the momentum of a CME from the Sun down to its influence on magnetic ground stations on Earth is presented as preliminary proof of concept, such that future attempts may try to use remote sensing to create density and velocity time-series as inputs to magnetospheric simulations.

astro-ph.EP↗