arXiv subjects

A. Q. M. Khaliq

Publications and source records attributed to A. Q. M. Khaliq.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2022

Fourier Spectral Methods with Exponential Time Differencing for Space-Fractional Partial Differential Equations in Population Dynamics

Physical laws governing population dynamics are generally expressed as differential equations. Research in recent decades has incorporated fractional-order (non-integer) derivatives into differential models of natural phenomena, such as reaction-diffusion systems. In this paper, we develop a method to numerically solve a multi-component and multi-dimensional space-fractional system. For space discretization, we apply a Fourier spectral method that is suited for multidimensional PDE systems. Efficient approximation of time-stepping is accomplished with a locally one dimensional exponential time differencing approach. We show the effect of different fractional parameters on growth models and consider the convergence, stability, and uniqueness of solutions, as well as the biological interpretation of parameters and boundary conditions.

math.NA↗

arXiv2022

Multi-variant COVID-19 model with heterogeneous transmission rates using deep neural networks

Mutating variants of COVID-19 have been reported across many US states since 2021. In the fight against COVID-19, it has become imperative to study the heterogeneity in the time-varying transmission rates for each variant in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures. We develop a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered mathematical model to highlight the differences in the transmission of the B.1.617.2 delta variant and the original SARS-CoV-2. Theoretical results for the well-posedness of the model are discussed. A Deep neural network is utilized and a deep learning algorithm is developed to learn the time-varying heterogeneous transmission rates for each variant. The accuracy of the algorithm for the model is shown using error metrics in the data-driven simulation for COVID-19 variants in the US states of Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, and Missouri. Short-term forecasting of daily cases is demonstrated using long short term memory neural network and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2022

Data-driven deep learning algorithms for time-varying infection rates of COVID-19 and mitigation measures

Epidemiological models with constant parameters may not capture satisfactory infection patterns in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures during a pandemic, since infectiousness is a function of time. In this paper, an Epidemiology-Informed Neural Network algorithm is introduced to learn the time-varying transmission rate for the COVID-19 pandemic in the presence of various mitigation scenarios. There are asymptomatic infectives, mostly unreported, and the proposed algorithm learns the proportion of the total infective individuals that are asymptomatic infectives. Using cumulative and daily reported cases of the symptomatic infectives, we simulate the impact of non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures such as early detection of infectives, contact tracing, and social distancing on the basic reproduction number. We demonstrate the effectiveness of vaccination on the transmission of COVID-19. The accuracy of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated using error metrics in the data-driven simulation for COVID-19 data of Italy, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

How Efficient is Contact Tracing in Mitigating the Spread of Covid-19? A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Contact Tracing (CT) is one of the measures taken by government and health officials to mitigate the spread of the novel coronavirus. In this paper, we investigate its efficacy by developing a compartmental model for assessing its impact on mitigating the spread of the virus. We describe the impact on the reproduction number ${\mathcal{R}_0}$ of COVID-19. In particular, we discuss the importance and relevance of parameters of the model such as the number of reported cases, effectiveness of tracking and monitoring policy, and the transmission rates to contact tracing. We describe the terms "perfect tracking", "perfect monitoring" and "perfect reporting" to indicate that traced contacts will be tracked while incubating, tracked contacts are efficiently monitored so that they do not cause secondary infections, and all infected persons are reported, respectively. We consider three special scenarios: (1) perfect monitoring and perfect tracking of contacts of a reported case, (2) perfect reporting of cases and perfect monitoring of tracked reported cases and (3) perfect reporting and perfect tracking of contacts of reported cases. Furthermore, we gave a lower bound on the proportion of contacts to be traced to ensure that the effective reproduction, ${\mathcal{R}_c}$, is below one and describe ${\mathcal{R}_c}$ in terms of observable quantities such as the proportion of reported and traced cases. Model simulations using the COVID-19 data obtained from John Hopkins University for some selected states in the US suggest that even late intervention of CT may reasonably reduce the transmission of COVID-19 and reduce peak hospitalizations and deaths.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2014

Split-step Milstein methods for multi-channel stiff stochastic differential systems

We consider split-step Milstein methods for the solution of stiff stochastic differential equations with an emphasis on systems driven by multi-channel noise. We show their strong order of convergence and investigate mean-square stability properties for different noise and drift structures. The stability matrices are established in a form convenient for analyzing their impact arising from different deterministic drift integrators. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness and reliability of these methods.

math.NA↗