arXiv subjects

A. R. Marble

Publications and source records attributed to A. R. Marble.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

NASA/NOAA MOU Annex Final Report: Evaluating Model Advancements for Predicting CME Arrival Time

The purpose of this project was to assess improvements in CME arrival time forecasts at Earth using the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model driven by data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) ground observatories. These outputs are then fed into the coupled Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) - ENLIL model and compared to an operational version of WSA-ENLIL (without ADAPT). SWPC selected a set of 38 historical events over the period of five years from 2012--2014 (33 events) and 2017--2019 (5 events). The overall three-year project consisted of multiple simulation validation studies for the entire event set (1292 simulations): (a) benchmark single map (operational version prior to May 2019) (b) time-dependent sequence of GONG maps driving WSA-ENLIL with 4 different model settings (c) single test simulation of a time-dependent sequence of GONG maps driving ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL (d) single GONG map driving ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL (e) time-dependent sequence of GONG maps driving ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL. We report that for all 38 events, within each model version/settings combination, the CME arrival time error decreased by 0.2 to 0.9 hours when using a sequence of time-dependent zero-point corrected magnetograms compared to using single magnetogram input. Overall, for all events, when using the older uncorrected magnetograms, the CME arrival time error increased for all new model versions/settings combination compared to the benchmark. Notably for the 5 events in the period 2017--2019 when more reliable zero-point corrected magnetograms were available, the ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL (median arrival realization) CME arrival time error decreased against all benchmarks. In this report we also discuss replicating the operational model, challenges in detecting CME arrival in simulations, and comparing zero-point corrected and uncorrected magnetogram inputs.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2022

Seismic Monitoring of the Sun's Far Hemisphere: A Crucial Component in Future Space Weather Forecasting (A White Paper Submitted to the Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) -- SSPH 2024-2033)

The purpose of this white paper is to put together a coherent vision for the role of helioseismic monitoring of magnetic activity in the Sun's far hemisphere that will contribute to improving space weather forecasting as well as fundamental research in the coming decade. Our goal fits into the broader context of helioseismology in solar research for any number of endeavors when helioseismic monitors may be the sole synoptic view of the Sun's far hemisphere. It is intended to foster a growing understanding of solar activity, as realistically monitored in both hemispheres, and its relationship to all known aspects of the near-Earth and terrestrial environment. Some of the questions and goals that can be fruitfully pursued through seismic monitoring of farside solar activity in the coming decade include: What is the relationship between helioseismic signatures and their associated magnetic configurations, and how is this relationship connected to the solar EUV irradiance over the period of a solar rotation?; How can helioseismic monitoring contribute to data-driven global magnetic-field models for precise space weather forecasting?; What can helioseismic monitors tell us about prospects of a flare, CME or high-speed stream that impacts the terrestrial environment over the period of a solar rotation?; How does the inclusion of farside information contribute to forecasts of interplanetary space weather and the environments to be encountered by human crews in interplanetary space? Thus, it is crucial for the development of farside monitoring of the Sun be continued into the next decade either through ground-based or space-borne observations.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2010

An Aromatic Inventory of the Local Volume

Using infrared photometry from the Spitzer Space Telescope, we perform the first inventory of aromatic feature emission (AFE, but also commonly referred to as PAH emission) for a statistically complete sample of star-forming galaxies in the local volume. The photometric methodology involved is calibrated and demonstrated to recover the aromatic fraction of the IRAC 8 micron flux with a standard deviation of 6% for a training set of 40 SINGS galaxies (ranging from stellar to dust dominated) with both suitable mid-infrared Spitzer IRS spectra and equivalent photometry. A potential factor of two improvement could be realized with suitable 5.5 and 10 micron photometry, such as what may be provided in the future by JWST. The resulting technique is then applied to mid-infrared photometry for the 258 galaxies from the Local Volume Legacy (LVL) survey, a large sample dominated in number by low-luminosity dwarf galaxies for which obtaining comparable mid-infrared spectroscopy is not feasible. We find the total LVL luminosity due to five strong aromatic features in the 8 micron complex to be 2.47E10 solar luminosities with a mean volume density of 8.8E6 solar luminosities per cubic Megaparsec. Twenty-four of the LVL galaxies, corresponding to a luminosity cut at M = -18.22 in the B band, account for 90% of the aromatic luminosity. Using oxygen abundances compiled from the literature for 129 of the 258 LVL galaxies, we find a correlation between metallicity and the aromatic to total infrared emission ratio but not the aromatic to total 8 micron dust emission ratio. A possible explanation is that metallicity plays a role in the abundance of aromatic molecules relative to the total dust content, but other factors such as star formation and/or the local radiation field affect the excitation of those molecules.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2009

The Spitzer Local Volume Legacy: Survey Description and Infrared Photometry

The survey description and the near-, mid-, and far-infrared flux properties are presented for the 258 galaxies in the Local Volume Legacy (LVL). LVL is a Spitzer Space Telescope legacy program that surveys the local universe out to 11 Mpc, built upon a foundation of ultraviolet, H-alpha, and HST imaging from 11HUGS (11 Mpc H-alpha and Ultraviolet Galaxy Survey) and ANGST (ACS Nearby Galaxy Survey Treasury). LVL covers an unbiased, representative, and statistically robust sample of nearby star-forming galaxies, exploiting the highest extragalactic spatial resolution achievable with Spitzer. As a result of its approximately volume-limited nature, LVL augments previous Spitzer observations of present-day galaxies with improved sampling of the low-luminosity galaxy population. The collection of LVL galaxies shows a large spread in mid-infrared colors, likely due to the conspicuous deficiency of 8um PAH emission from low-metallicity, low-luminosity galaxies. Conversely, the far-infrared emission tightly tracks the total infrared emission, with a dispersion in their flux ratio of only 0.1 dex. In terms of the relation between infrared-to-ultraviolet ratio and ultraviolet spectral slope, the LVL sample shows redder colors and/or lower infrared-to-ultraviolet ratios than starburst galaxies, suggesting that reprocessing by dust is less important in the lower mass systems that dominate the LVL sample. Comparisons with theoretical models suggest that the amplitude of deviations from the relation found for starburst galaxies correlates with the age of the stellar populations that dominate the ultraviolet/optical luminosities.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2005

A Dark Galaxy in the Virgo Cluster Imaged at 21-cm

Dark Matter supposedly dominates the extragalactic, yet no totally dark structure of galactic proportions has ever been convincingly identified. Earlier (Minchin et al. 2005) we suggested that VIRGOHI 21, a 21-cm source we found in the Virgo Cluster at Jodrell Bank using single-dish observations (Davies et al. 2004), was probably such a dark galaxy because of its broad line-width (~ 200 km/s) unaccompanied by any visible gravitational source to account for it. Now we have managed to image VIRGOHI 21 in the neutral-hydrogen line, and indeed we find what appears to be a dark, edge-on, spinning disc with the mass and diameter of a typical spiral galaxy. Moreover the disc has unquestionably interacted with NGC 4254, a luminous spiral with an odd one-armed morphology, but lacking the massive interactor invariably responsible for such a feature. Published numerical models (Vollmer, Huchtmeier & van Driel 2005) of NGC 4254 call for a close interaction ~ 10^8 years ago with a perturber of 10^11 solar masses. This we take as completely independent evidence for the massive nature of VIRGOHI 21.

astro-ph↗