arXiv subjects

A. Rapisarda

Publications and source records attributed to A. Rapisarda.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2021

Detection of fake news on CoViD-19 on Web Search Engines

In early January 2020, after China reported the first cases of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in the city of Wuhan, unreliable and not fully accurate information has started spreading faster than the virus itself. Alongside this pandemic, people have experienced a parallel infodemic, i.e., an overabundance of information, some of which misleading or even harmful, that has widely spread around the globe. Although Social Media are increasingly being used as information source, Web Search Engines, like Google or Yahoo!, still represent a powerful and trustworthy resource for finding information on the Web. This is due to their capability to capture the largest amount of information, helping users quickly identify the most relevant, useful, although not always the most reliable, results for their search queries. This study aims to detect potential misleading and fake contents by capturing and analysing textual information, which flow through Search Engines. By using a real-world dataset associated with recent CoViD-19 pandemic, we first apply re-sampling techniques for class imbalance, then we use existing Machine Learning algorithms for classification of not reliable news. By extracting lexical and host-based features of associated Uniform Resource Locators (URLs) for news articles, we show that the proposed methods, so common in phishing and malicious URLs detection, can improve the efficiency and performance of classifiers. Based on these findings, we suggest that the use of both textual and URLs features can improve the effectiveness of fake news detection methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

A Novel Methodology for Epidemic Risk Assessment of COVID-19 outbreak

We propose a novel data-driven framework for assessing the a-priori epidemic risk of a geographical area and for identifying high-risk areas within a country. Our risk index is evaluated as a function of three different components: the hazard of the disease, the exposure of the area and the vulnerability of its inhabitants. As an application, we discuss the case of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. We characterize each of the twenty Italian regions by using available historical data on air pollution, human mobility, winter temperature, housing concentration, health care density, population size and age. We find that the epidemic risk is higher in some of the Northern regions with respect to Central and Southern Italy. The corresponding risk index shows correlations with the available official data on the number of infected individuals, patients in intensive care and deceased patients, and can help explaining why regions such as Lombardia, Emilia-Romagna, Piemonte and Veneto have suffered much more than the rest of the country. Although the COVID-19 outbreak started in both North (Lombardia) and Central Italy (Lazio) almost at the same time, when the first cases were officially certified at the beginning of 2020, the disease has spread faster and with heavier consequences in regions with higher epidemic risk. Our framework can be extended and tested on other epidemic data, such as those on seasonal flu, and applied to other countries. We also present a policy model connected with our methodology, which might help policy-makers to take informed decisions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

A New Agent-Based Methodology for the Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Areas

In order to estimate the seismic vulnerability of a densely populated urban area, it would in principle be necessary to evaluate the dynamic behaviour of individual and aggregate buildings. These detailed seismic analyses, however, are extremely cost-intensive and require great processing time and expertise judgment. The aim of the present study is to propose a new methodology able to combine information and tools coming from different scientific fields in order to reproduce the effects of a seismic input in urban areas with known geological features and to estimate the entity of the damages caused on existing buildings. In particular, we present new software called ABES (Agent-Based Earthquake Simulator), based on a Self-Organized Criticality framework, which allows to evaluate the effects of a sequence of seismic events on a certain large urban area during a given interval of time. The integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) data sets, concerning both geological and urban information about the territory of Avola (Italy), allows performing a parametric study of these effects on a real context as a case study. The proposed new approach could be very useful in estimating the seismic vulnerability and defining planning strategies for seismic risk reduction in large urban areas

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2018

Talent vs Luck: the role of randomness in success and failure

The largely dominant meritocratic paradigm of highly competitive Western cultures is rooted on the belief that success is due mainly, if not exclusively, to personal qualities such as talent, intelligence, skills, efforts or risk taking. Sometimes, we are willing to admit that a certain degree of luck could also play a role in achieving significant material success. But, as a matter of fact, it is rather common to underestimate the importance of external forces in individual successful stories. It is very well known that intelligence or talent exhibit a Gaussian distribution among the population, whereas the distribution of wealth - considered a proxy of success - follows typically a power law (Pareto law). Such a discrepancy between a Normal distribution of inputs, with a typical scale, and the scale invariant distribution of outputs, suggests that some hidden ingredient is at work behind the scenes. In this paper, with the help of a very simple agent-based model, we suggest that such an ingredient is just randomness. In particular, we show that, if it is true that some degree of talent is necessary to be successful in life, almost never the most talented people reach the highest peaks of success, being overtaken by mediocre but sensibly luckier individuals. As to our knowledge, this counterintuitive result - although implicitly suggested between the lines in a vast literature - is quantified here for the first time. It sheds new light on the effectiveness of assessing merit on the basis of the reached level of success and underlines the risks of distributing excessive honors or resources to people who, at the end of the day, could have been simply luckier than others. With the help of this model, several policy hypotheses are also addressed and compared to show the most efficient strategies for public funding of research in order to improve meritocracy, diversity and innovation.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

A simplified model based on self-organized criticality framework for the seismic assessment of urban areas

The analysis of the seismic vulnerability of urban centres has received a great attention in the last century. In order to estimate the seismic vulnerability of a densely populated urban area, it would in principle be necessary to develop in-depth analyses for predicting the dynamic behaviour of the individual buildings and their structural aggregation. Such analyses, however, are extremely cost-intensive, require great processing time and above all expertise judgement. It is therefore very useful to define simplified rules for estimating the seismic vulnerability of whole urban areas. In the last decades, the Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) scenario has gained increasing credibility as a mathematical framework for explaining a large number of naturally occurring extreme events, from avalanches to earthquakes dynamics, from bubbles and crises in financial markets to the extinction of species in the evolution or the behaviour of human brain activity. All these examples show the intrinsic tendency common to many phenomena to spontaneously organize into a dynamical critical state, whose signature is the presence of a power law behaviour in the frequency distribution of events. In this context, the Olami-Feder- Christensen (OFC) model, introduced in 1992, has played a key role in modelling earthquakes phenomenology. The aim of the present paper is proposing an agent-based model of earthquake dynamics, based on the OFC self- organized criticality framework, in order to evaluate the effects of a critical sequence of seismic events on a given large urban area during a given interval of time. The further integration of a GIS database within a software environment for agent-based simulations, will allow to perform a preliminary parametric study of these effects on real datasets. The model could be useful for defining planning strategies for seismic risk reduction

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2017

Modelling Surveys Effects in Political Competitions

In this paper we study the impact of news media and public surveys on the electoral campaigns for political competitions. We present an agent-based model that addresses the effective influence of surveys in orienting the opinions of voters before elections. The dynamics of electoral consensus is studied as a function of time by investigating different possible scenarios and the effect of periodic surveys, on the opinions of a small community of voters represented as a network of agents connected by realistic social relationships. Our simulations show the possibility to manage opinion consensus in electoral competitions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Cosmic Background Radiation and `ether-drift' experiments

`Ether-drift' experiments have played a crucial role for the origin of relativity. Though, a recent re-analysis shows that those original measurements where light was still propagating in gaseous systems, differently from the modern experiments in vacuum and in solid dielectrics, indicate a small universal anisotropy which is naturally interpreted in terms of a non-local thermal gradient. We argue that this could possibly be the effect, on weakly bound gaseous matter, of the temperature gradient due to the Earth's motion within the Cosmic Background Radiation (CBR). Therefore, a check with modern laser interferometers is needed to reproduce the conditions of those early measurements with today's much greater accuracy. We emphasize that an unambiguous confirmation of our interpretation would have far reaching consequences. For instance, it would also imply that all physical systems on the moving Earth are exposed to a tiny energy flow, an effect that, in principle, could induce forms of self-organization in matter.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2015

Modelling Financial Markets by Self-Organized Criticality

We present a financial market model, characterized by self-organized criticality, that is able to generate endogenously a realistic price dynamics and to reproduce well-known stylized facts. We consider a community of heterogeneous traders, composed by chartists and fundamentalists, and focus on the role of informative pressure on market participants, showing how the spreading of information, based on a realistic imitative behavior, drives contagion and causes market fragility. In this model imitation is not intended as a change in the agent's group of origin, but is referred only to the price formation process. We introduce in the community also a variable number of random traders in order to study their possible beneficial role in stabilizing the market, as found in other studies. Finally we also suggest some counterintuitive policy strategies able to dampen fluctuations by means of a partial reduction of information.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2015

Perfect Information vs Random Investigation: Safety Guidelines for a Consumer in the Jungle of Product Differentiation

We present a graph-theoretic model of consumer choice, where final decisions are shown to be influenced by information and knowledge, in the form of individual awareness, discriminating ability, and perception of market structure. Building upon the distance-based Hotelling's differentiation idea, we describe the behavioral experience of several prototypes of consumers, who walk a hypothetical cognitive path in an attempt to maximize their satisfaction. Our simulations show that even consumers endowed with a small amount of information and knowledge may reach a very high level of utility. On the other hand, complete ignorance negatively affects the whole consumption process. In addition, rather unexpectedly, a random walk on the graph reveals to be a winning strategy, below a minimal threshold of information and knowledge.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

The vacuum as a form of turbulent fluid: motivations, experiments, implications

Basic foundational aspects of both quantum theory and relativity might induce to represent the physical vacuum as an underlying highly turbulent fluid. By explicit numerical simulations, we show that a form of statistically isotropic and homogeneous vacuum turbulence is entirely consistent with the present ether-drift experiments. In particular, after subtracting known forms of disturbances, the observed stochastic signal requires velocity fluctuations whose absolute scale is well described by the average Earth's motion with respect to the Cosmic Microwave Background. We emphasize that the existence of a genuine stochastic ether drift could be crucial for the emergence of forms of self-organization in matter and thus for the whole approach to complexity.

physics.gen-ph↗

arXiv2013

Are random trading strategies more successful than technical ones?

In this paper we explore the specific role of randomness in financial markets, inspired by the beneficial role of noise in many physical systems and in previous applications to complex socio- economic systems. After a short introduction, we study the performance of some of the most used trading strategies in predicting the dynamics of financial markets for different international stock exchange indexes, with the goal of comparing them with the performance of a completely random strategy. In this respect, historical data for FTSE-UK, FTSE-MIB, DAX, and S&P500 indexes are taken into account for a period of about 15-20 years (since their creation until today).

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2013

On the efficiency of the new Italian Senate and the role of 5 Stars Movement: Comparison among different possible scenarios by means of a virtual Parliament model

The recent 2013 Italian elections are over and the situation that President Napolitano will have to settle soon for the formation of the new government is not the simplest one. After twenty years of bipolarism (more or less effective), where we were accustomed to a tight battle between two great political coalitions, the center-right and center-left, now, in the new Parliament, we have four political formations. But is it really this result, as it would seem to suggest our common sense, the prelude to an inevitable phase of ungovernability? Can a Parliament with changing majorities in Senate to be as efficient as a Parliament with a large majority in both the Houses? In this short note we will try to answer these questions going beyond common sense and analyzing the current political situation by means of a scientific, original and innovative instrument, i.e. an "agent-based simulation". We show that the situation is not so dramatic as it sounds, but it contains within itself potential positive aspects, as long as one makes the most appropriate choices.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2012

Return Migration After Brain Drain: A Simulation Approach

The Brain Drain phenomenon is particularly heterogeneous and is characterized by peculiar specifications. It influences the economic fundamentals of both the country of origin and the host one in terms of human capital accumulation. Here, the brain drain is considered from a microeconomic perspective: more precisely we focus on the individual rational decision to return, referring it to the social capital owned by the worker. The presented model compares utility levels to justify agent migration conduct and to simulate several scenarios within a computational environment. In particular, we developed a simulation framework based on two fundamental individual features, i.e. risk aversion and initial expectation, which characterize the dynamics of different agents according to the evolution of their social contacts. Our main result is that, according to the value of risk aversion and initial expectation, the probability of return migration depends on their ratio, with a certain degree of approximation: when risk aversion is much bigger than the initial expectation, the probability of returns is maximal, while, in the opposite case, the probability for the agents to remain abroad is very high. In between, when the two values are comparable, it does exist a broad intertwined region where it is very difficult to draw any analytical forecast.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2012

Prompt electrons driving ion acceleration and formation of a two temperatures plasma in nanosecond laser-ablation domain

We present the results of an experiment on plasma generation via laser ablation at 10^12 W/cm^2 of power intensity and in a nanosecond domain. Prompt electrons emission and complex plasma plume fragmentation were simultaneously observed for the first time in this laser intensity regime, along with a double electron temperature inside the plasma bulk surviving for a long time to the plume expansion. 1D PIC simulations are in agreement with experimental data as long as the emission of initial prompt electrons is considered. This assumption results to be the key to explain all the other experimental evidences.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2011

Basic randomness of nature and ether-drift experiments

We re-consider the idea that quantum fluctuations might reflect the existence of an 'objective randomness', i.e. a basic property of the vacuum state which is independent of any experimental accuracy of the observations or limited knowledge of initial conditions. Besides being responsible for the observed quantum behaviour, this might introduce a weak, residual form of `noise' which is intrinsic to natural phenomena and could be important for the emergence of complexity at higher physical levels. By adopting Stochastic Electro Dynamics as a heuristic model, we are driven to a picture of the vacuum as a form of highly turbulent ether, which is deep-rooted into the basic foundational aspects of both quantum physics and relativity, and to search for experimental tests of this scenario. An analysis of the most precise ether-drift experiments, operating both at room temperature and in the cryogenic regime, shows that, at present, there is some ambiguity in the interpretation of the data. In fact the average amplitude of the signal has precisely the magnitude expected, in a 'Lorentzian' form of relativity, from an underlying stochastic ether and, as such, might not be a spurious instrumental effect. This puzzle, however, should be solved in a next future with the use of new cryogenically cooled optical resonators whose stability should improve by about two orders of magnitude. In these new experimental conditions, the persistence of the present amplitude would represent a clean evidence for the type of random vacuum we are envisaging.

physics.gen-ph↗

arXiv2011

Accidental Politicians: How Randomly Selected Legislators Can Improve Parliament Efficiency

We study a prototypical model of a Parliament with two Parties or two Political Coalitions and we show how the introduction of a variable percentage of randomly selected independent legislators can increase the global efficiency of a Legislature, in terms of both the number of laws passed and the average social welfare obtained. We also analytically find an "efficiency golden rule" which allows to fix the optimal number of legislators to be selected at random after that regular elections have established the relative proportion of the two Parties or Coalitions. These results are in line with both the ancient Greek democratic system and the recent discovery that the adoption of random strategies can improve the efficiency of hierarchical organizations.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2009

On "Ergodicity and Central Limit Theorem in Systems with Long-Range Interactions" by Figueiredo et al

In the present paper we refute the criticism advanced in a recent preprint by Figueiredo et al [1] about the possible application of the $q$-generalized Central Limit Theorem (CLT) to a paradigmatic long-range-interacting many-body classical Hamiltonian system, the so-called Hamiltonian Mean Field (HMF) model. We exhibit that, contrary to what is claimed by these authors and in accordance with our previous results, $q$-Gaussian-like curves are possible and real attractors for a certain class of initial conditions, namely the one which produces nontrivial longstanding quasi-stationary states before the arrival, only for finite size, to the thermal equilibrium.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2008

Phase Transitions and Chaos in Long-Range Models of Coupled Oscillators

We study the chaotic behavior of the synchronization phase transition in the Kuramoto model. We discuss the relationship with analogous features found in the Hamiltonian Mean Field (HMF) model. Our numerical results support the connection between the two models, which can be considered as limiting cases (dissipative and conservative, respectively) of a more general dynamical system of damped-driven coupled pendula. We also show that, in the Kuramoto model, the shape of the phase transition and the largest Lyapunov exponent behavior are strongly dependent on the distribution of the natural frequencies.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗