arXiv subjects

A. Roodman

Publications and source records attributed to A. Roodman.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Redshift Calibration of the Weak Lensing Source Galaxies

Determining the distribution of redshifts of galaxies observed by wide-field photometric experiments like the Dark Energy Survey is an essential component to mapping the matter density field with gravitational lensing. In this work we describe the methods used to assign individual weak lensing source galaxies from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Weak Lensing Source Catalogue to four tomographic bins and to estimate the redshift distributions in these bins. As the first application of these methods to data, we validate that the assumptions made apply to the DES Y3 weak lensing source galaxies and develop a full treatment of systematic uncertainties. Our method consists of combining information from three independent likelihood functions: Self-Organizing Map $p(z)$ (SOMPZ), a method for constraining redshifts from galaxy photometry; clustering redshifts (WZ), constraints on redshifts from cross-correlations of galaxy density functions; and shear ratios (SR), which provide constraints on redshifts from the ratios of the galaxy-shear correlation functions at small scales. Finally, we describe how these independent probes are combined to yield an ensemble of redshift distributions encapsulating our full uncertainty. We calibrate redshifts with combined effective uncertainties of $σ_{\langle z \rangle}\sim 0.01$ on the mean redshift in each tomographic bin.

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arXiv2021

Assessing tension metrics with Dark Energy Survey and Planck data

Quantifying tensions -- inconsistencies amongst measurements of cosmological parameters by different experiments -- has emerged as a crucial part of modern cosmological data analysis. Statistically-significant tensions between two experiments or cosmological probes may indicate new physics extending beyond the standard cosmological model and need to be promptly identified. We apply several tension estimators proposed in the literature to the Dark Energy Survey (DES) large-scale structure measurement and Planck cosmic microwave background data. We first evaluate the responsiveness of these metrics to an input tension artificially introduced between the two, using synthetic DES data. We then apply the metrics to the comparison of Planck and actual DES Year 1 data. We find that the parameter differences, Eigentension, and Suspiciousness metrics all yield similar results on both simulated and real data, while the Bayes ratio is inconsistent with the rest due to its dependence on the prior volume. Using these metrics, we calculate the tension between DES Year 1 $3\times 2$pt and Planck, finding the surveys to be in $\sim 2.3σ$ tension under the $Λ$CDM paradigm. This suite of metrics provides a toolset for robustly testing tensions in the DES Year 3 data and beyond.

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arXiv2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Galaxy clustering and systematics treatment for lens galaxy samples

In this work we present the galaxy clustering measurements of the two DES lens galaxy samples: a magnitude-limited sample optimized for the measurement of cosmological parameters, MagLim, and a sample of luminous red galaxies selected with the redMaGiC algorithm. MagLim / redMaGiC sample contains over 10 million / 2.5 million galaxies and is divided into six / five photometric redshift bins spanning the range $z\in[0.20,1.05]$ / $z\in[0.15,0.90]$. Both samples cover 4143 deg$^2$ over which we perform our analysis blind, measuring the angular correlation function with a S/N $\sim 63$ for both samples. In a companion paper (DES Collaboration et al. 2021)), these measurements of galaxy clustering are combined with the correlation functions of cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing of each sample to place cosmological constraints with a 3$\times$2pt analysis. We conduct a thorough study of the mitigation of systematic effects caused by the spatially varying survey properties and we correct the measurements to remove artificial clustering signals. We employ several decontamination methods with different configurations to ensure the robustness of our corrections and to determine the systematic uncertainty that needs to be considered for the final cosmology analyses. We validate our fiducial methodology using log-normal mocks, showing that our decontamination procedure induces biases no greater than $0.5σ$ in the $(Ω_m, b)$ plane, where $b$ is galaxy bias. We demonstrate that failure to remove the artificial clustering would introduce strong biases up to $\sim 7 σ$ in $Ω_m$ and of more than $4 σ$ in galaxy bias.

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arXiv2021

Identifying RR Lyrae Variable Stars in Six Years of the Dark Energy Survey

We present a search for RR Lyrae stars using the full six-year data set from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) covering ~5,000 sq. deg. of the southern sky. Using a multi-stage multi-variate classification and light curve template-fitting scheme, we identify RR Lyrae candidates with a median of 35 observations per candidate. We detect 6,971 RR Lyrae candidates out to ~335 kpc, and we estimate that our sample is >70% complete at ~150 kpc. We find excellent agreement with other wide-area RR Lyrae catalogs and RR Lyrae studies targeting the Magellanic Clouds and other Milky Way satellite galaxies. We fit the smooth stellar halo density profile using a broken-power-law model with fixed halo flattening (q = 0.7), and we find strong evidence for a break at $R_0 = 32.1^{+1.1}_{-0.9}$ kpc with an inner slope of $n_1 = -2.54^{+0.09}_{-0.09}$ and an outer slope of $n_2 = -5.42^{+0.13}_{-0.14}$. We use our catalog to perform a search for Milky Way satellite galaxies with large sizes and low luminosities. Using a set of simulated satellite galaxies, we find that our RR Lyrae-based search is more sensitive than those using resolved stellar populations in the regime of large ($r_h > 500$ pc), low-surface-brightness dwarf galaxies. A blind search for large, diffuse satellites yields three candidate substructures. The first can be confidently associated with the dwarf galaxy Eridanus II. The second has a similar distance and proper motion to the ultra-faint dwarf galaxy Tucana II but is separated by ~5 deg. The third is close in projection to the globular cluster NGC 1851 but is ~10 kpc more distant and appears to differ in proper motion.

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arXiv2021

Consistency of cosmic shear analyses in harmonic and real space

Recent cosmic shear studies have reported discrepancies of up to $1σ$ on the parameter ${S_{8}=σ_{8}\sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3}}$ between the analysis of shear power spectra and two-point correlation functions, derived from the same shear catalogs. It is not a priori clear whether the measured discrepancies are consistent with statistical fluctuations. In this paper, we investigate this issue in the context of the forthcoming analyses from the third year data of the Dark Energy Survey (DES-Y3). We analyze DES-Y3 mock catalogs from Gaussian simulations with a fast and accurate importance sampling pipeline. We show that the methodology for determining matching scale cuts in harmonic and real space is the key factor that contributes to the scatter between constraints derived from the two statistics. We compare the published scales cuts of the KiDS, Subaru-HSC and DES surveys, and find that the correlation coefficients of posterior means range from over 80% for our proposed cuts, down to 10% for cuts used in the literature. We then study the interaction between scale cuts and systematic uncertainties arising from multiple sources: non-linear power spectrum, baryonic feedback, intrinsic alignments, uncertainties in the point-spread function, and redshift distributions. We find that, given DES-Y3 characteristics and proposed cuts, these uncertainties affect the two statistics similarly; the differential biases are below a third of the statistical uncertainty, with the largest biases arising from intrinsic alignment and baryonic feedback. While this work is aimed at DES-Y3, the tools developed can be applied to Stage-IV surveys where statistical errors will be much smaller.

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arXiv2021

The first Hubble diagram and cosmological constraints using superluminous supernova

We present the first Hubble diagram of superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) out to a redshift of two, together with constraints on the matter density, $Ω_{\rm M}$, and the dark energy equation-of-state parameter, $w(\equiv p/ρ)$. We build a sample of 20 cosmologically useful SLSNe~I based on light curve and spectroscopy quality cuts. We confirm the robustness of the peak decline SLSN~I standardization relation with a larger dataset and improved fitting techniques than previous works. We then solve the SLSN model based on the above standardisation via minimisation of the $χ^2$ computed from a covariance matrix which includes statistical and systematic uncertainties. For a spatially flat $Λ$CDM cosmological model, we find $Ω_{\rm M}=0.38^{+0.24}_{-0.19}$, with a rms of 0.27 mag for the residuals of the distance moduli. For a $w_0w_a$CDM cosmological model, the addition of SLSNe~I to a `baseline' measurement consisting of Planck temperature together with type Ia supernovae, results in a small improvement in the constraints of $w_0$ and $w_a$ of 4\%. We present simulations of future surveys with 868 and 492 SLSNe I (depending on the configuration used) and show that such a sample can deliver cosmological constraints in a flat $Λ$CDM model with the same precision (considering only statistical uncertainties) as current surveys that use type Ia supernovae, while providing a factor 2-3 improvement in the precision of the constraints on the time variation of dark energy, $w_0$ and $w_a$. This paper represents the proof-of-concept for superluminous supernova cosmology, and demonstrates they can provide an independent test of cosmology in the high-redshift ($z>1$) universe.

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arXiv2021

Improving the astrometric solution of the Hyper Suprime-Cam with anisotropic Gaussian processes

We study astrometric residuals from a simultaneous fit of Hyper Suprime-Cam images. We aim to characterize these residuals and study the extent to which they are dominated by atmospheric contributions for bright sources. We use Gaussian process interpolation, with a correlation function (kernel), measured from the data, to smooth and correct the observed astrometric residual field. We find that Gaussian process interpolation with a von Kármán kernel allows us to reduce the covariances of astrometric residuals for nearby sources by about one order of magnitude, from 30 mas$^2$ to 3 mas$^2$ at angular scales of ~1 arcmin, and to halve the r.m.s. residuals. Those reductions using Gaussian process interpolation are similar to recent result published with the Dark Energy Survey dataset. We are then able to detect the small static astrometric residuals due to the Hyper Suprime-Cam sensors effects. We discuss how the Gaussian process interpolation of astrometric residuals impacts galaxy shape measurements, in particular in the context of cosmic shear analyses at the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

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arXiv2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Optimizing the Lens Sample in Combined Galaxy Clustering and Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing Analysis

We investigate potential gains in cosmological constraints from the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing by optimizing the lens galaxy sample selection using information from Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data and assuming the DES Year 1 Metacalibration sample for the sources. We explore easily reproducible selections based on magnitude cuts in $i$-band as a function of (photometric) redshift, $z_{\rm phot}$, and benchmark the potential gains against those using the well established redMaGiC sample. We focus on the balance between density and photometric redshift accuracy, while marginalizing over a realistic set of cosmological and systematic parameters. Our optimal selection, the MagLim sample, satisfies $i < 4 \, z_{\rm phot} + 18$ and has $\sim 30\%$ wider redshift distributions but $\sim 3.5$ times more galaxies than redMaGiC. Assuming a wCDM model and equivalent scale cuts to mitigate nonlinear effects, this leads to $40\%$ increase in the figure of merit for the pair combinations of $Ω_m$, $w$, and $σ_8$, and gains of $16\%$ in $σ_8$, $10\%$ in $Ω_m$, and $12\%$ in $w$. Similarly, in LCDM we find an improvement of $19\%$ and $27\%$ on $σ_8$ and $Ω_m$, respectively. We also explore flux-limited samples with a flat magnitude cut finding that the optimal selection, $i < 22.2$, has $\sim 7$ times more galaxies and $\sim 20\%$ wider redshift distributions compared to MagLim, but slightly worse constraints. We show that our results are robust with respect to the assumed galaxy bias and photometric redshift uncertainties with only moderate further gains from increased number of tomographic bins or the inclusion of bin cross-correlations, except in the case of the flux-limited sample, for which these gains are more significant.

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arXiv2021

DES Y1 results: Splitting growth and geometry to test $Λ$CDM

We analyze Dark Energy Survey (DES) data to constrain a cosmological model where a subset of parameters -- focusing on $Ω_m$ -- are split into versions associated with structure growth (e.g. $Ω_m^{\rm grow}$) and expansion history (e.g. $Ω_m^{\rm geo}$). Once the parameters have been specified for the $Λ$CDM cosmological model, which includes general relativity as a theory of gravity, it uniquely predicts the evolution of both geometry (distances) and the growth of structure over cosmic time. Any inconsistency between measurements of geometry and growth could therefore indicate a breakdown of that model. Our growth-geometry split approach therefore serves as both a (largely) model-independent test for beyond-$Λ$CDM physics, and as a means to characterize how DES observables provide cosmological information. We analyze the same multi-probe DES data as arXiv:1811.02375 : DES Year 1 (Y1) galaxy clustering and weak lensing, which are sensitive to both growth and geometry, as well as Y1 BAO and Y3 supernovae, which probe geometry. We additionally include external geometric information from BOSS DR12 BAO and a compressed Planck 2015 likelihood, and external growth information from BOSS DR12 RSD. We find no significant disagreement with $Ω_m^{\rm grow}=Ω_m^{\rm geo}$. When DES and external data are analyzed separately, degeneracies with neutrino mass and intrinsic alignments limit our ability to measure $Ω_m^{\rm grow}$, but combining DES with external data allows us to constrain both growth and geometric quantities. We also consider a parameterization where we split both $Ω_m$ and $w$, but find that even our most constraining data combination is unable to separately constrain $Ω_m^{\rm grow}$ and $w^{\rm grow}$. Relative to $Λ$CDM, splitting growth and geometry weakens bounds on $σ_8$ but does not alter constraints on $h$.

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arXiv2020

A statistical standard siren measurement of the Hubble constant from the LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave compact object merger GW190814 and Dark Energy Survey galaxies

We present a measurement of the Hubble constant $H_0$ using the gravitational wave (GW) event GW190814, which resulted from the coalescence of a 23 $M_\odot$ black hole with a 2.6 $M_\odot$ compact object, as a standard siren. No compelling electromagnetic counterpart has been identified for this event, thus our analysis accounts for thousands of potential host galaxies within a statistical framework. The redshift information is obtained from the photometric redshift (photo-$z$) catalog from the Dark Energy Survey. The luminosity distance is provided by the LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave sky map. Since this GW event has the second-smallest localization volume after GW170817, GW190814 is likely to provide the best constraint on cosmology from a single standard siren without identifying an electromagnetic counterpart. Our analysis uses photo-$z$ probability distribution functions and corrects for photo-$z$ biases. We also reanalyze the binary-black hole GW170814 within this updated framework. We explore how our findings impact the $H_0$ constraints from GW170817, the only GW merger associated with a unique host galaxy. From a combination of GW190814, GW170814 and GW170817, our analysis yields $H_0 = 72.0^{+ 12}_{- 8.2 }~{\rm km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$ (68\% Highest Density Interval, HDI) for a prior in $H_0$ uniform between $[20,140]~{\rm km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$. The addition of GW190814 and GW170814 to GW170817 improves the 68\% HDI from GW170817 alone by $\sim 18\%$, showing how well-localized mergers without counterparts can provide a significant contribution to standard siren measurements, provided that a complete galaxy catalog is available at the location of the event.

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arXiv2020

Shadows in the Dark: Low-Surface-Brightness Galaxies Discovered in the Dark Energy Survey

We present a catalog of 23,790 extended low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) identified in $\sim 5000 °^2$ from the first three years of imaging data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Based on a single-component Sérsic model fit, we define extended LSBGs as galaxies with $g$-band effective radii $R_{eff}(g) > 2.5''$ and mean surface brightness $\barμ_{eff}(g) > 24.2 \,mag ȧrcsec^{-2}$. We find that the distribution of LSBGs is strongly bimodal in $(g-r)$ vs.\ $(g-i$) color space. We divide our sample into red ($g-i \geq 0.60$) and blue ($g-i<0.60$) galaxies and study the properties of the two populations. Redder LSBGs are more clustered than their blue counterparts and are correlated with the distribution of nearby ($z < 0.10$) bright galaxies. Red LSBGs constitute $\sim 33\%$ of our LSBG sample, and $\sim 30\%$ of these are located within 1 deg of low-redshift galaxy groups and clusters (compared to $\sim 8\%$ of the blue LSBGs). For nine of the most prominent galaxy groups and clusters, we calculate the physical properties of associated LSBGs assuming a redshift derived from the host system. In these systems, we identify 41 objects that can be classified as ultra-diffuse galaxies, defined as LSBGs with projected physical effective radii $R_{eff} > 1.5 \,kpc$ and central surface brighthness $μ_0(g) > 24.0\, mag \,arcsec^{-2}$. The wide-area sample of LSBGs in DES can be used to test the role of environment on models of LSBG formation and evolution.

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arXiv2020

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Clustering Redshifts -- Calibration of the Weak Lensing Source Redshift Distributions with redMaGiC and BOSS/eBOSS

We present the calibration of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) weak lensing source galaxy redshift distributions $n(z)$ from clustering measurements. In particular, we cross-correlate the weak lensing (WL) source galaxies sample with redMaGiC galaxies (luminous red galaxies with secure photometric redshifts) and a spectroscopic sample from BOSS/eBOSS to estimate the redshift distribution of the DES sources sample. Two distinct methods for using the clustering statistics are described. The first uses the clustering information independently to estimate the mean redshift of the source galaxies within a redshift window, as done in the DES Y1 analysis. The second method establishes a likelihood of the clustering data as a function of $n(z)$, which can be incorporated into schemes for generating samples of $n(z)$ subject to combined clustering and photometric constraints. Both methods incorporate marginalisation over various astrophysical systematics, including magnification and redshift-dependent galaxy-matter bias. We characterise the uncertainties of the methods in simulations; the first method recovers the mean $z$ of tomographic bins to RMS (precision) of $\sim 0.014$. Use of the second method is shown to vastly improve the accuracy of the shape of $n(z)$ derived from photometric data. The two methods are then applied to the DES Y3 data.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Reducing ground-based astrometric errors with Gaia and Gaussian processes

Stochastic field distortions caused by atmospheric turbulence are a fundamental limitation to the astrometric accuracy of ground-based imaging. This distortion field is measurable at the locations of stars with accurate positions provided by the Gaia DR2 catalog; we develop the use of Gaussian process regression (GPR) to interpolate the distortion field to arbitrary locations in each exposure. We introduce an extension to standard GPR techniques that exploits the knowledge that the 2-dimensional distortion field is curl-free. Applied to several hundred 90-second exposures from the Dark Energy Survey as a testbed, we find that the GPR correction reduces the variance of the turbulent distortions $\approx12\times$, on average, with better performance in denser regions of the Gaia catalog. The RMS per-coordinate distortion in the $riz$ bands is typically $\approx7$ mas before any correction, and $\approx2$ mas after application of the GPR model. The GPR astrometric corrections are validated by the observation that their use reduces, from 10 to 5 mas RMS, the residuals to an orbit fit to $riz$-band observations over 5 years of the $r=18.5$ trans-Neptunian object Eris. We also propose a GPR method, not yet implemented, for simultaneously estimating the turbulence fields and the 5-dimensional stellar solutions in a stack of overlapping exposures, which should yield further turbulence reductions in future deep surveys.

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arXiv2020

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cluster Abundances, Weak Lensing, and Galaxy Correlations

Combining multiple observational probes is a powerful technique to provide robust and precise constraints on cosmological parameters. In this letter, we present the first joint analysis of cluster abundances and auto/cross correlations of three cosmic tracer fields measured from the first year data of the Dark Energy Survey: galaxy density, weak gravitational lensing shear, and cluster density split by optical richness. From a joint analysis of cluster abundances, three cluster cross-correlations, and auto correlations of galaxy density, we obtain $Ω_{\rm{m}}=0.305^{+0.055}_{-0.038}$ and $σ_8=0.783^{+0.064}_{-0.054}$. This result is consistent with constraints from the DES-Y1 galaxy clustering and weak lensing two-point correlation functions for the flat $νΛ$CDM model. We thus combine cluster abundances and all two-point correlations from three cosmic tracer fields and find improved constraints on cosmological parameters as well as on the cluster observable--mass scaling relation. This analysis is an important advance in both optical cluster cosmology and multi-probe analyses of upcoming wide imaging surveys.

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arXiv2020

Perturbation theory for modeling galaxy bias: validation with simulations of the Dark Energy Survey

We describe perturbation theory (PT) models of galaxy bias for applications to photometric galaxy surveys. We model the galaxy-galaxy and galaxy-matter correlation functions in configuration space and validate against measurements from mock catalogs designed for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that an effective PT model with five galaxy bias parameters provides a good description of the 3D correlation functions above scales of 4 Mpc/$h$ and $z < 1$. Our tests show that at the projected precision of the DES-Year 3 analysis, two of the non-linear bias parameters can be fixed to their co-evolution values, and a third (the $k^2$ term for higher derivative bias) set to zero. The agreement is typically at the 2 percent level over scales of interest, which is the statistical uncertainty of our simulation measurements. To achieve this level of agreement, our {\it fiducial} model requires using the full non-linear matter power spectrum (rather than the 1-loop PT one). We also measure the relationship between the non-linear and linear bias parameters and compare them to their expected co-evolution values. We use these tests to motivate the galaxy bias model and scale cuts for the cosmological analysis of the Dark Energy Survey; our conclusions are generally applicable to all photometric surveys.

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arXiv2020

The impact of spectroscopic incompleteness in direct calibration of redshift distributions for weak lensing surveys

Obtaining accurate distributions of galaxy redshifts is a critical aspect of weak lensing cosmology experiments. One of the methods used to estimate and validate redshift distributions is apply weights to a spectroscopic sample so that their weighted photometry distribution matches the target sample. In this work we estimate the \textit{selection bias} in redshift that is introduced in this procedure. We do so by simulating the process of assembling a spectroscopic sample (including observer-assigned confidence flags) and highlight the impacts of spectroscopic target selection and redshift failures. We use the first year (Y1) weak lensing analysis in DES as an example data set but the implications generalise to all similar weak lensing surveys. We find that using colour cuts that are not available to the weak lensing galaxies can introduce biases of $Δ~z\sim0.015$ in the weighted mean redshift of different redshift intervals. To assess the impact of incompleteness in spectroscopic samples, we select only objects with high observer-defined confidence flags and compare the weighted mean redshift with the true mean. We find that the mean redshift of the DES Y1 weak lensing sample is typically biased at the $Δ~z=0.005-0.05$ level after the weighting is applied. The bias we uncover can have either sign, depending on the samples and redshift interval considered. For the highest redshift bin, the bias is larger than the uncertainties in the other DES Y1 redshift calibration methods, justifying the decision of not using this method for the redshift estimations. We discuss several methods to mitigate this bias.

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arXiv2020

Weak Lensing of Type Ia Supernovae from the Dark Energy Survey

We consider the effects of weak gravitational lensing on observations of 196 spectroscopically confirmed Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) from years 1 to 3 of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We simultaneously measure both the angular correlation function and the non-Gaussian skewness caused by weak lensing. This approach has the advantage of being insensitive to the intrinsic dispersion of SNe Ia magnitudes. We model the amplitude of both effects as a function of $σ_8$, and find $σ_8 = 1.2^{+0.9}_{-0.8}$. We also apply our method to a subsample of 488 SNe from the Joint Light-curve Analysis (JLA) (chosen to match the redshift range we use for this work), and find $σ_8 = 0.8^{+1.1}_{-0.7}$. The comparable uncertainty in $σ_8$ between DES-SN and the larger number of SNe from JLA highlights the benefits of homogeneity of the DES-SN sample, and improvements in the calibration and data analysis.

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arXiv2020

A DESGW Search for the Electromagnetic Counterpart to the LIGO/Virgo Gravitational Wave Binary Neutron Star Merger Candidate S190510g

We present the results from a search for the electromagnetic counterpart of the LIGO/Virgo event S190510g using the Dark Energy Camera (DECam). S190510g is a binary neutron star (BNS) merger candidate of moderate significance detected at a distance of 227$\pm$92 Mpc and localized within an area of 31 (1166) square degrees at 50\% (90\%) confidence. While this event was later classified as likely non-astrophysical in nature within 30 hours of the event, our short latency search and discovery pipeline identified 11 counterpart candidates, all of which appear consistent with supernovae following offline analysis and spectroscopy by other instruments. Later reprocessing of the images enabled the recovery of 6 more candidates. Additionally, we implement our candidate selection procedure on simulated kilonovae and supernovae under DECam observing conditions (e.g., seeing, exposure time) with the intent of quantifying our search efficiency and making informed decisions on observing strategy for future similar events. This is the first BNS counterpart search to employ a comprehensive simulation-based efficiency study. We find that using the current follow-up strategy, there would need to be 19 events similar to S190510g for us to have a 99\% chance of detecting an optical counterpart, assuming a GW170817-like kilonova. We further conclude that optimization of observing plans, which should include preference for deeper images over multiple color information, could result in up to a factor of 1.5 reduction in the total number of followups needed for discovery.

astro-ph.HE↗