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A. Sikov

Publications and source records attributed to A. Sikov.

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An optimal investment strategy aimed at maximizing the expected utility across all intermediate capital levels

This study investigates an optimal investment problem for an insurance company operating under the Cramer-Lundberg risk model, where investments are made in both a risky asset and a risk-free asset. In contrast to other literature that focuses on optimal investment and/or reinsurance strategies to maximize the expected utility of terminal wealth within a given time horizon, this work considers the expected value of utility accumulation across all intermediate capital levels of the insurer. By employing the Dynamic Programming Principle, we prove a verification theorem, in order to show that any solution to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation solves our optimization problem. Subject to some regularity conditions on the solution of the HJB equation, we establish the existence of the optimal investment strategy. Finally, to illustrate the applicability of the theoretical findings, we present numerical examples.

q-fin.MF

Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality for Peruvian Population

In this article, we have modeled mortality rates of Peruvian female and male populations during the period of 1950-2017 using the Lee-Carter (LC) model. The stochastic mortality model was introduced by Lee and Carter (1992) and has been used by many authors for fitting and forecasting the human mortality rates. The Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) approach is used for estimation of the parameters of the LC model. Utilizing the best fitted auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model we forecast the values of the time dependent parameter of the LC model for the next thirty years. The forecasted values of life expectancy at different age group with $95\%$ confidence intervals are also reported for the next thirty years. In this research we use the data, obtained from the Peruvian National Institute of Statistics (INEI).

econ.GN