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A. Spurio Mancini

Publications and source records attributed to A. Spurio Mancini.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

Differentiable astrophysics at scale: solving and differentiating ODE ensembles on the GPU

Astronomers increasingly fit their models with gradient-based methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, which need the derivatives of the model with respect to its parameters. In many analyses a prediction requires solving a small system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for thousands to millions of parameter sets, and this ensemble of integrations often sets the cost of the analysis. We introduce to the astronomical community GRADSOLVE, a JAX library that moves this computation to graphics processing units (GPUs): it integrates each member of the ensemble in its own GPU thread with its own step size and returns the derivatives with respect to the parameters in the same pass. We measure the speed-up it provides in three examples from different fields of astronomy, stellar orbits in the Galactic potential, the expansion history of a dark-energy cosmology and the spin precession of binary black holes, with every code held to the same accuracy requirement. For a million trajectories GRADSOLVE runs 8.5 to 1500 times faster than the serial CPU code of each example running on all 128 cores of a CPU, and several orders of magnitude faster than on one core. On the same GPU it is also 11 to 15 times faster than DIFFRAX, the state-of-the-art ODE library in JAX, in all three examples. With GRADSOLVE a million such integrations take seconds or less on one GPU, so gradient-based analyses that need ensembles of this size become routine. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/ECLIPSE-AI4Science/gradsolve.

astro-ph.IM↗

Full-waveform earthquake source inversion using simulation-based inference

This paper presents a novel framework for full-waveform seismic source inversion using simulation-based inference (SBI). Traditional probabilistic approaches often rely on simplifying assumptions about data errors, which we show can lead to inaccurate uncertainty quantification. SBI addresses this limitation by building an empirical probabilistic model of the data errors using machine learning models, known as neural density estimators, which can then be integrated into the Bayesian inference framework. We apply the SBI framework to point-source moment tensor inversions as well as joint moment tensor and time-location inversions. We construct a range of synthetic examples to explore the quality of the SBI solutions, as well as to compare the SBI results with standard Gaussian likelihood-based Bayesian inversions. We then demonstrate that under real seismic noise, common Gaussian likelihood assumptions for treating full-waveform data yield overconfident posterior distributions that underestimate the moment tensor component uncertainties by up to a factor of 3. We contrast this with SBI, which produces well-calibrated posteriors that generally agree with the true seismic source parameters, and offers an order-of-magnitude reduction in the number of simulations required to perform inference compared to standard Monte Carlo techniques. Finally, we apply our methodology to a pair of moderate magnitude earthquakes in the North Atlantic. We utilise seismic waveforms recorded by the recent UPFLOW ocean bottom seismometer array as well as by regional land stations in the Azores, comparing full moment tensor and source-time location posteriors between SBI and a Gaussian likelihood approach. We find that our adaptation of SBI can be directly applied to real earthquake sources to efficiently produce high quality posterior distributions that significantly improve upon Gaussian likelihood approaches.

physics.geo-ph↗

Field-level cosmological model selection: field-level simulation-based inference for Stage IV cosmic shear can distinguish dynamical dark energy

We present a framework that for the first time allows Bayesian model comparison to be performed for field-level inference of cosmological models. We achieve this by taking a simulation-based inference (SBI) approach using neural likelihood estimation, which we couple with the learned harmonic mean estimator in order to compute the Bayesian evidence for model comparison. We apply our framework to mock Stage IV cosmic shear observations to assess its effectiveness at distinguishing between various models of dark energy. If the recent DESI results that provided exciting hints of dynamical dark energy were indeed the true underlying model, our analysis shows Stage IV cosmic shear surveys could definitively detect dynamical dark energy. We also perform traditional power spectrum likelihood-based inference for comparison, which we find is not able to distinguish between dark energy models, highlighting the enhanced constraining power for model comparison of our field-level SBI approach.

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A complete framework for cosmological emulation and inference with CosmoPower

We present a coherent, re-usable python framework which further builds on the cosmological emulator code CosmoPower. In the current era of high-precision cosmology, we require high-accuracy calculations of cosmological observables with Einstein-Boltzmann codes. For detailed statistical analyses, such codes often incur high costs in terms of computing power, making parameter space exploration costly, especially for beyond-$Λ$CDM analyses. Machine learning-enabled emulators of Einstein-Boltzmann codes have emerged as a solution to this problem and have become a common way to perform fast cosmological analyses. To enable generation, sharing and use of emulators for inference, we define standards for robustly describing, packaging and distributing them, and present software for easily performing these tasks in an automated and replicable manner. We provide examples and guidelines for generating your own sufficiently accurate emulators and wrappers for using them in popular cosmological inference codes. We demonstrate our framework by presenting a suite of high-accuracy emulators for the CAMB code's calculations of CMB $C_\ell$, $P(k)$, background evolution, and derived parameter quantities. We show that these emulators are accurate enough for both $Λ$CDM analysis and a set of single- and two-parameter extension models (including $N_{\rm eff}$, $\sum m_ν$ and $w_0 w_a$ cosmologies) with stage-IV observatories, recovering the original high-accuracy Einstein-Boltzmann spectra to tolerances well within the cosmic variance uncertainties across the full range of parameters considered. We also use our emulators to recover cosmological parameters in a simulated cosmic-variance limited experiment, finding results well within $0.1 σ$ of the input cosmology, while requiring typically $\lesssim1/50$ of the evaluation time than for the full Einstein-Boltzmann computation.

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Bayesian model comparison for simulation-based inference

Comparison of appropriate models to describe observational data is a fundamental task of science. The Bayesian model evidence, or marginal likelihood, is a computationally challenging, yet crucial, quantity to estimate to perform Bayesian model comparison. We introduce a methodology to compute the Bayesian model evidence in simulation-based inference (SBI) scenarios (also often called likelihood-free inference). In particular, we leverage the recently proposed learnt harmonic mean estimator and exploit the fact that it is decoupled from the method used to generate posterior samples, i.e. it requires posterior samples only, which may be generated by any approach. This flexibility, which is lacking in many alternative methods for computing the model evidence, allows us to develop SBI model comparison techniques for the three main neural density estimation approaches, including neural posterior estimation (NPE), neural likelihood estimation (NLE), and neural ratio estimation (NRE). We demonstrate and validate our SBI evidence calculation techniques on a range of inference problems, including a gravitational wave example. Moreover, we further validate the accuracy of the learnt harmonic mean estimator, implemented in the HARMONIC software, in likelihood-based settings. These results highlight the potential of HARMONIC as a sampler-agnostic method to estimate the model evidence in both likelihood-based and simulation-based scenarios.

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On the degeneracies between baryons, massive neutrinos and f(R) gravity in Stage IV cosmic shear analyses

Modelling nonlinear structure formation is essential for current and forthcoming cosmic shear experiments. We combine the halo model reaction formalism, implemented in the REACT code, with the COSMOPOWER machine learning emulation platform, to develop and publicly release REACTEMU-FR, a fast and accurate nonlinear matter power spectrum emulator for $f(R)$ gravity with massive neutrinos. Coupled with the state-of-the-art baryon feedback emulator BCEMU, we use REACTEMU-FR to produce Markov Chain Monte Carlo forecasts for a cosmic shear experiment with typical Stage IV specifications. We find that the inclusion of highly nonlinear scales (multipoles between $1500\leq \ell \leq 5000$) only mildly improves constraints on most standard cosmological parameters (less than a factor of 2). In particular, the necessary modelling of baryonic physics effectively damps most constraining power on the sum of the neutrino masses and modified gravity at $\ell \gtrsim 1500$. Using an approximate baryonic physics model produces mildly improved constraints on cosmological parameters which remain unbiased at the $1σ$-level, but significantly biases constraints on baryonic parameters at the $> 2σ$-level.

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class_sz I: Overview

class_sz is a versatile and robust code in C and Python that can compute theoretical predictions for a wide range of observables relevant to cross-survey science in the Stage IV era. The code is public at https://github.com/CLASS-SZ/class_sz along with a series of tutorial notebooks (https://github.com/CLASS-SZ/notebooks). It will be presented in full detail in paper II. Here we give a brief overview of key features and usage.

astro-ph.IM↗

A Measurement of the CMB Temperature Power Spectrum and Constraints on Cosmology from the SPT-3G 2018 TT/TE/EE Data Set

We present a sample-variance-limited measurement of the temperature power spectrum ($TT$) of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) using observations of a $\sim\! 1500 \,\mathrm{deg}^2$ field made by SPT-3G in 2018. We report multifrequency power spectrum measurements at 95, 150, and 220GHz covering the angular multipole range $750 \leq \ell < 3000$. We combine this $TT$ measurement with the published polarization power spectrum measurements from the 2018 observing season and update their associated covariance matrix to complete the SPT-3G 2018 $TT/TE/EE$ data set. This is the first analysis to present cosmological constraints from SPT $TT$, $TE$, and $EE$ power spectrum measurements jointly. We blind the cosmological results and subject the data set to a series of consistency tests at the power spectrum and parameter level. We find excellent agreement between frequencies and spectrum types and our results are robust to the modeling of astrophysical foregrounds. We report results for $Λ$CDM and a series of extensions, drawing on the following parameters: the amplitude of the gravitational lensing effect on primary power spectra $A_\mathrm{L}$, the effective number of neutrino species $N_{\mathrm{eff}}$, the primordial helium abundance $Y_{\mathrm{P}}$, and the baryon clumping factor due to primordial magnetic fields $b$. We find that the SPT-3G 2018 $T/TE/EE$ data are well fit by $Λ$CDM with a probability-to-exceed of $15\%$. For $Λ$CDM, we constrain the expansion rate today to $H_0 = 68.3 \pm 1.5\,\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ and the combined structure growth parameter to $S_8 = 0.797 \pm 0.042$. The SPT-based results are effectively independent of Planck, and the cosmological parameter constraints from either data set are within $<1\,σ$ of each other. (abridged)

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CosmoPower-JAX: high-dimensional Bayesian inference with differentiable cosmological emulators

We present CosmoPower-JAX, a JAX-based implementation of the CosmoPower framework, which accelerates cosmological inference by building neural emulators of cosmological power spectra. We show how, using the automatic differentiation, batch evaluation and just-in-time compilation features of JAX, and running the inference pipeline on graphics processing units (GPUs), parameter estimation can be accelerated by orders of magnitude with advanced gradient-based sampling techniques. These can be used to efficiently explore high-dimensional parameter spaces, such as those needed for the analysis of next-generation cosmological surveys. We showcase the accuracy and computational efficiency of CosmoPower-JAX on two simulated Stage IV configurations. We first consider a single survey performing a cosmic shear analysis totalling 37 model parameters. We validate the contours derived with CosmoPower-JAX and a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler against those derived with a nested sampler and without emulators, obtaining a speed-up factor of $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$. We then consider a combination of three Stage IV surveys, each performing a joint cosmic shear and galaxy clustering (3x2pt) analysis, for a total of 157 model parameters. Even with such a high-dimensional parameter space, CosmoPower-JAX provides converged posterior contours in 3 days, as opposed to the estimated 6 years required by standard methods. CosmoPower-JAX is fully written in Python, and we make it publicly available to help the cosmological community meet the accuracy requirements set by next-generation surveys.

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KiDS & Euclid: Cosmological implications of a pseudo angular power spectrum analysis of KiDS-1000 cosmic shear tomography

We present a tomographic weak lensing analysis of the Kilo Degree Survey Data Release 4 (KiDS-1000), using a new pseudo angular power spectrum estimator (pseudo-$C_{\ell}$) under development for the ESA Euclid mission. Over 21 million galaxies with shape information are divided into five tomographic redshift bins, ranging from 0.1 to 1.2 in photometric redshift. We measured pseudo-$C_{\ell}$ using eight bands in the multipole range $76<\ell<1500$ for auto- and cross-power spectra between the tomographic bins. A series of tests were carried out to check for systematic contamination from a variety of observational sources including stellar number density, variations in survey depth, and point spread function properties. While some marginal correlations with these systematic tracers were observed, there is no evidence of bias in the cosmological inference. B-mode power spectra are consistent with zero signal, with no significant residual contamination from E/B-mode leakage. We performed a Bayesian analysis of the pseudo-$C_{\ell}$ estimates by forward modelling the effects of the mask. Assuming a spatially flat $Λ$CDM cosmology, we constrained the structure growth parameter $S_8 = σ_8(Ω_{\rm m}/0.3)^{1/2} = 0.754_{-0.029}^{+0.027}$. When combining cosmic shear from KiDS-1000 with baryon acoustic oscillation and redshift space distortion data from recent Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) measurements of luminous red galaxies, as well as the Lyman-$α$ forest and its cross-correlation with quasars, we tightened these constraints to $S_8 = 0.771^{+0.006}_{-0.032}$. These results are in very good agreement with previous KiDS-1000 and SDSS analyses and confirm a $\sim 3σ$ tension with early-Universe constraints from cosmic microwave background experiments.

astro-ph.CO↗

KiDS-1000 Cosmology: machine learning -- accelerated constraints on Interacting Dark Energy with COSMOPOWER

We derive constraints on a coupled quintessence model with pure momentum exchange from the public $\sim$1000 deg$^2$ cosmic shear measurements from the Kilo-Degree Survey and the $\it{Planck}$ 2018 Cosmic Microwave Background data. We compare this model with $Λ$CDM and find similar $χ^2$ and log-evidence values. We accelerate parameter estimation by sourcing cosmological power spectra from the neural network emulator COSMOPOWER. We highlight the necessity of such emulator-based approaches to reduce the computational runtime of future similar analyses, particularly from Stage IV surveys. As an example, we present MCMC forecasts on the same coupled quintessence model for a $\it{Euclid}$-like survey, revealing degeneracies between the coupled quintessence parameters and the baryonic feedback and intrinsic alignment parameters, but also highlighting the large increase in constraining power Stage IV surveys will achieve. The contours are obtained in a few hours with COSMOPOWER, as opposed to the few months required with a Boltzmann code.

astro-ph.CO↗

COSMOPOWER: emulating cosmological power spectra for accelerated Bayesian inference from next-generation surveys

We present $\it{CosmoPower}$, a suite of neural cosmological power spectrum emulators providing orders-of-magnitude acceleration for parameter estimation from two-point statistics analyses of Large-Scale Structure (LSS) and Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) surveys. The emulators replace the computation of matter and CMB power spectra from Boltzmann codes; thus, they do not need to be re-trained for different choices of astrophysical nuisance parameters or redshift distributions. The matter power spectrum emulation error is less than $0.4\%$ in the wavenumber range $k \in [10^{-5}, 10] \, \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, for redshift $z \in [0, 5]$. $\it{CosmoPower}$ emulates CMB temperature, polarisation and lensing potential power spectra in the $5σ$ region of parameter space around the $\it{Planck}$ best fit values with an error $\lesssim 10\%$ of the expected shot noise for the forthcoming Simons Observatory. $\it{CosmoPower}$ is showcased on a joint cosmic shear and galaxy clustering analysis from the Kilo-Degree Survey, as well as on a Stage IV $\it{Euclid}$-like simulated cosmic shear analysis. For the CMB case, $\it{CosmoPower}$ is tested on a $\it{Planck}$ 2018 CMB temperature and polarisation analysis. The emulators always recover the fiducial cosmological constraints with differences in the posteriors smaller than sampling noise, while providing a speed-up factor up to $O(10^4)$ to the complete inference pipeline. This acceleration allows posterior distributions to be recovered in just a few seconds, as we demonstrate in the $\it{Planck}$ likelihood case. $\it{CosmoPower}$ is written entirely in Python, can be interfaced with all commonly used cosmological samplers and is publicly available at https://github.com/alessiospuriomancini/cosmopower .

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Accelerating Bayesian microseismic event location with deep learning

We present a series of new open source deep learning algorithms to accelerate Bayesian full waveform point source inversion of microseismic events. Inferring the joint posterior probability distribution of moment tensor components and source location is key for rigorous uncertainty quantification. However, the inference process requires forward modelling of microseismic traces for each set of parameters explored by the sampling algorithm, which makes the inference very computationally intensive. In this paper we focus on accelerating this process by training deep learning models to learn the mapping between source location and seismic traces, for a given 3D heterogeneous velocity model, and a fixed isotropic moment tensor for the sources. These trained emulators replace the expensive solution of the elastic wave equation in the inference process. We compare our results with a previous study that used emulators based on Gaussian Processes to invert microseismic events. We show that all of our models provide more accurate predictions and $\sim 100$ times faster predictions than the method based on Gaussian Processes, and a $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$ speed-up factor over a pseudo-spectral method for waveform generation. For example, a 2-s long synthetic trace can be generated in $\sim 10$ ms on a common laptop processor, instead of $\sim$ 1 hr using a pseudo-spectral method on a high-profile Graphics Processing Units card. We also show that our inference results are in excellent agreement with those obtained from traditional location methods based on travel time estimates. The speed, accuracy and scalability of our open source deep learning models pave the way for extensions of these emulators to generic source mechanisms and application to joint Bayesian inversion of moment tensor components and source location using full waveforms.

physics.geo-ph↗

Testing (modified) gravity with 3D and tomographic cosmic shear

Cosmic shear is one of the primary probes to test gravity with current and future surveys. There are two main techniques to analyse a cosmic shear survey; a tomographic method, where correlations between the lensing signal in different redshift bins are used to recover redshift information, and a 3D approach, where the full redshift information is carried through the entire analysis. Here we compare the two methods, by forecasting cosmological constraints for future surveys like Euclid. We extend the 3D formalism for the first time to theories beyond the standard model, belonging to the Horndeski class. This includes the majority of universally coupled extensions to $Λ$CDM with one scalar degree of freedom in addition to the metric, still in agreement with current observations. Given a fixed background, the evolution of linear perturbations in Horndeski gravity is described by a set of four functions of time only. We model their time evolution assuming proportionality to the dark energy density fraction and place Fisher matrix constraints on the proportionality coefficients. We find that a 3D analysis can constrain Horndeski theories better than a tomographic one, in particular with a decrease in the errors of the order of 20$\%$. This paper shows for the first time a quantitative comparison on an equal footing between Fisher matrix forecasts for both a fully 3D and a tomographic analysis of cosmic shear surveys. The increased sensitivity of the 3D formalism comes from its ability to retain information on the source redshifts along the entire analysis.

astro-ph.CO↗

3D cosmic shear: numerical challenges, 3D lensing random fields generation and Minkowski Functionals for cosmological inference

Cosmic shear - the weak gravitational lensing effect generated by fluctuations of the gravitational tidal fields of the large-scale structure - is one of the most promising tools for current and future cosmological analyses. The spherical-Bessel decomposition of the cosmic shear field ("3D cosmic shear") is one way to maximise the amount of redshift information in a lensing analysis and therefore provides a powerful tool to investigate in particular the growth of cosmic structure that is crucial for dark energy studies. However, the computation of simulated 3D cosmic shear covariance matrices presents numerical difficulties, due to the required integrations over highly oscillatory functions. We present and compare two numerical methods and relative implementations to perform these integrations. We then show how to generate 3D Gaussian random fields on the sky in spherical coordinates, starting from the 3D cosmic shear covariances. To validate our field-generation procedure, we calculate the Minkowski functionals associated with our random fields, compare them with the known expectation values for the Gaussian case and demonstrate parameter inference from Minkowski functionals from a cosmic shear survey. This is a first step towards producing fully 3D Minkowski functionals for a lognormal field in 3D to extract Gaussian and non-Gaussian information from the cosmic shear field, as well as towards the use of Minkowski functionals as a probe of cosmology beyond the commonly used two-point statistics.

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