arXiv subjects

A. Wünsche

Publications and source records attributed to A. Wünsche.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Chasing the Tides: Searching for Orbital Decay Signatures in Transit Timing Data and Tidal Models for 20 Hot Jupiters

In this work, we present a transit timing variation analysis for 20 hot Jupiter systems, which we interpret with theoretical tidal dissipation models. For the majority of the sample, we conclude that a constant orbital period model represents the timing data best. Only WASP-12 b, TrES-1 b and WASP-121 b exhibit a changing orbital period, according to the most up-to-date results. We updated the orbital decay rate of WASP-12 b to $\dot{P} = -29.4 \pm 4.0 \mathrm{~ms~yr^{-1}}$ and the corresponding stellar tidal quality factor to $Q_*^{\prime} = 1.72 \pm 0.18 \times 10^5$. For TrES-1 b, the median quadratic model suggests a period decrease at a rate of $-14.9 \pm 0.6 \mathrm{~ms~yr^{-1}}$, but the corresponding $Q_*^{\prime} = 570 \pm 60$ does not agree with the theoretical estimates, which suggest $Q_*^{\prime} \sim 10^6$ due to internal gravity wave dissipation. Lastly, WASP-121 b exhibits orbital growth at a rate of $15.1 \pm 0.8 \mathrm{~ms~yr^{-1}}$, and theoretical results support outward migration due to strong inertial wave dissipation.

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arXiv2025

ExoClock Project IV: A homogeneous catalogue of 620 updated exoplanet ephemerides

The ExoClock project is an open platform aiming to monitor exoplanets by integrating observations from space and ground based telescopes. This study presents an updated catalogue of 620 exoplanet ephemerides, integrating 30000 measurements from ground-based telescopes (the ExoClock network), literature, and space telescopes (Kepler, K2 and TESS). The updated catalogue includes 277 planets from TESS which require special observing strategies due to their shallow transits or bright host stars. This study demonstrates that data from larger telescopes and the employment of new methodologies such as synchronous observations with small telescopes, are capable of monitoring special cases of planets. The new ephemerides show that 45% of the planets required an update while the results show an improvement of one order of magnitude in prediction uncertainty. The collective analysis also enabled the identification of new planets showing TTVs, highlighting the importance of extensive observing coverage. Developed in the context of the ESA's Ariel space mission, with the goal of delivering a catalogue with reliable ephemerides to increase the mission efficiency, ExoClock's scope and service have grown well beyond the remit of Ariel. The ExoClock project has been operating in the framework of open science, and all tools and products are accessible to everyone within academia and beyond, to support efficient scheduling of future exoplanet observations, especially from larger telescopes where the pressure for time allocation efficiency is higher (Ariel, JWST, VLT, ELT, Subaru etc). The inclusion of diverse audiences in the process and the collaborative mode not only foster democratisation of science but also enhance the quality of the results.

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arXiv2025

The Orbit of WASP-4 b is in Decay

WASP-4 b is a hot Jupiter exhibiting a decreasing orbital period, prompting investigations into potential mechanisms driving its evolution. We analyzed 173 transit light curves, including 37 new observations, and derived mid-transit timings with EXOFAST, forming the most extensive TTV dataset for this system. Adding 58 literature timings and removing unreliable data, we constructed a TTV diagram with 216 points. Our analysis considered linear, quadratic, and apsidal motion models, with the quadratic model proving to be significantly superior in all model comparison statistics. We found no significant periodic signals in the data. The quadratic model allows us to infer a tidal quality factor of Q' ~ 80,000 from the orbital decay rate if this is due to stellar tides. Theoretical considerations indicate that such efficient dissipation is possible due to internal gravity waves in the radiative core of WASP-4, but only in our models with a more evolved host star, possibly near the end of its main-sequence lifetime, and with a larger radius than the observed one. Our main-sequence models produce only about a third of the required dissipation (Q' ~ 200,000 - 500,000). Therefore, the observed orbital decay can only be explained by a slightly larger or more evolved host, resembling the case for WASP-12. Our findings highlight the need for further stellar modeling and improvement in our current understanding of tidal dissipation mechanisms driving orbital decay in close-in exoplanetary systems.

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arXiv2023

A hot mini-Neptune and a temperate, highly eccentric sub-Saturn around the bright K-dwarf TOI-2134

We present the characterisation of an inner mini-Neptune in a 9.2292005$\pm$0.0000063 day orbit and an outer mono-transiting sub-Saturn planet in a 95.50$^{+0.36}_{-0.25}$ day orbit around the moderately active, bright (mv=8.9 mag) K5V star TOI-2134. Based on our analysis of five sectors of TESS data, we determine the radii of TOI-2134b and c to be 2.69$\pm$0.16 R$_{e}$ for the inner planet and 7.27$\pm$0.42 R$_{e}$ for the outer one. We acquired 111 radial-velocity spectra with HARPS-N and 108 radial-velocity spectra with SOPHIE. After careful periodogram analysis, we derive masses for both planets via Gaussian Process regression: 9.13$^{+0.78}_{-0.76}$ M$_{e}$ for TOI-2134b and 41.86$^{+7.69}_{-7.83}$ M$_{e}$ for TOI-2134c. We analysed the photometric and radial-velocity data first separately, then jointly. The inner planet is a mini-Neptune with density consistent with either a water-world or a rocky core planet with a low-mass H/He envelope. The outer planet has a bulk density similar to Saturn's. The outer planet is derived to have a significant eccentricity of 0.67$^{+0.05}_{-0.06}$ from a combination of photometry and RVs. We compute the irradiation of TOI-2134c as 1.45$\pm$0.10 times the bolometric flux received by Earth, positioning it for part of its orbit in the habitable sone of its system. We recommend further RV observations to fully constrain the orbit of TOI-2134c. With an expected Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect amplitude of 7.2$\pm$1.3 m/s, we recommend TOI-2134c for follow-up RM analysis to study the spin-orbit architecture of the system. We calculate the Transmission Spectroscopy Metric, and both planets are suitable for bright-mode NIRCam atmospheric characterisation.

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arXiv2023

Ephemeris Updates for Seven Selected HATNet Survey Transiting Exoplanets

We refined the ephemeris of seven transiting exoplanets HAT-P-6b, HAT-P-12b, HAT-P-18b, HAT-P-22b, HAT-P-32b, HAT-P-33b, and HAT-P-52b. We observed 11 transits from eight observatories in different filters for HAT-P-6b and HAT-P-32b. Also, the Exoplanet Transit Database (ETD) observations for each of the seven exoplanets were analyzed, and the light curves of five systems were studied using Transiting light Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) data. We used Exofast-v1 to simulate these ground- and space-based light curves and estimate mid-transit times. We obtained a total of 11, 175 and 67 mid-transit times for these seven exoplanets from our observations, ETD and TESS data, respectively, along with 155 mid-transit times from the literature. Then, we generated transit timing variation (TTV) diagrams for each using derived mid-transit times as well as those found in the literature. The systems' linear ephemeris was then refined and improved using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. All of the studied exoplanets, with the exception of the HAT-P-12b system, displayed an increasing trend in the orbital period in the TTV diagrams.

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arXiv2022

ExoClock Project III: 450 new exoplanet ephemerides from ground and space observations

The ExoClock project has been created with the aim of increasing the efficiency of the Ariel mission. It will achieve this by continuously monitoring and updating the ephemerides of Ariel candidates over an extended period, in order to produce a consistent catalogue of reliable and precise ephemerides. This work presents a homogenous catalogue of updated ephemerides for 450 planets, generated by the integration of $\sim$18000 data points from multiple sources. These sources include observations from ground-based telescopes (ExoClock network and ETD), mid-time values from the literature and light-curves from space telescopes (Kepler/K2 and TESS). With all the above, we manage to collect observations for half of the post-discovery years (median), with data that have a median uncertainty less than one minute. In comparison with literature, the ephemerides generated by the project are more precise and less biased. More than 40\% of the initial literature ephemerides had to be updated to reach the goals of the project, as they were either of low precision or drifting. Moreover, the integrated approach of the project enables both the monitoring of the majority of the Ariel candidates (95\%), and also the identification of missing data. The dedicated ExoClock network effectively supports this task by contributing additional observations when a gap in the data is identified. These results highlight the need for continuous monitoring to increase the observing coverage of the candidate planets. Finally, the extended observing coverage of planets allows us to detect trends (TTVs - Transit Timing Variations) for a sample of 19 planets. All products, data, and codes used in this work are open and accessible to the wider scientific community.

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arXiv2022

Homogeneous Transit Timing Analyses of Ten Exoplanet Systems

We study the transit timings of 10 exoplanets in order to investigate potential Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) in them. We model their available ground-based light curves, some presented here and others taken from the literature, and homogeneously measure the mid-transit times. We statistically compare our results with published values and find that the measurement errors agree. However, in terms of recovering the possible frequencies, homogeneous sets can be found to be more useful, of which no statistically relevant example has been found for the planets in our study. We corrected the ephemeris information of all ten planets we studied and provide these most precise light elements as references for future transit observations with space-borne and ground-based instruments. We found no evidence for secular or periodic changes in the orbital periods of the planets in our sample, including the ultra-short period WASP-103 b, whose orbit is expected to decay on an observable timescale. Therefore, we derive the lower limits for the reduced tidal quality factors (Q$^{\prime}_{\star}$) for the host stars based on best fitting quadratic functions to their timing data. We also present a global model of all available data for WASP-74 b, which has a Gaia parallax-based distance value ~25% larger than the published value.

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arXiv2021

ExoClock project II: A large-scale integrated study with 180 updated exoplanet ephemerides

The ExoClock project is an inclusive, integrated, and interactive platform that was developed to monitor the ephemerides of the Ariel targets to increase the mission efficiency. The project makes the best use of all available resources, i.e., observations from ground telescopes, mid-time values from the literature and finally, observations from space instruments. Currently, the ExoClock network includes 280 participants with telescopes capable of observing 85\% of the currently known Ariel candidate targets. This work includes the results of $\sim$1600 observations obtained up to the 31st of December 2020 from the ExoClock network. These data in combination with $\sim$2350 mid-time values collected from the literature are used to update the ephemerides of 180 planets. The analysis shows that 40\% of the updated ephemerides will have an impact on future scheduling as either they have a significantly improved precision, or they have revealed biases in the old ephemerides. With the new observations, the observing coverage and rate for half of the planets in the sample has been doubled or more. Finally, from a population perspective, we identify that the differences in the 2028 predictions between the old and the new ephemerides have an STD that is double what is expected from gaussian uncertainties. These findings have implications for planning future observations, where we will need to account for drifts potentially greater than the prediction uncertainties. The updated ephemerides are open and accessible to the wider exoplanet community both from our Open Science Framework (OSF) repository and our website.

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arXiv2021

Discovery of a young low-mass brown dwarf transiting a fast-rotating F-type star by the Galactic Plane eXoplanet (GPX) survey

We announce the discovery of GPX-1 b, a transiting brown dwarf with a mass of $19.7\pm 1.6$ $M_{\mathrm{Jup}}$ and a radius of $1.47\pm0.10$ $R_{\mathrm{Jup}}$, the first sub-stellar object discovered by the Galactic Plane eXoplanet (GPX) survey. The brown dwarf transits a moderately bright ($V$ = 12.3 mag) fast-rotating F-type star with a projected rotational velocity $v\sin{ i_*}=40\pm10$ km/s. We use the isochrone placement algorithm to characterize the host star, which has effective temperature $7000\pm200$ K, mass $1.68\pm0.10$ $M_{\mathrm{Sun}}$, radius $1.56\pm0.10$ $R_{\mathrm{Sun}}$ and approximate age $0.27_{-0.15}^{+0.09}$ Gyr. GPX-1 b has an orbital period of $\sim$1.75 d, and a transit depth of $0.90\pm0.03$ %. We describe the GPX transit detection observations, subsequent photometric and speckle-interferometric follow-up observations, and SOPHIE spectroscopic measurements, which allowed us to establish the presence of a sub-stellar object around the host star. GPX-1 was observed at 30-min integrations by TESS in Sector 18, but the data is affected by blending with a 3.4 mag brighter star 42 arcsec away. GPX-1 b is one of about two dozen transiting brown dwarfs known to date, with a mass close to the theoretical brown dwarf/gas giant planet mass transition boundary. Since GPX-1 is a moderately bright and fast-rotating star, it can be followed-up by the means of Doppler tomography.

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arXiv2019

Ephemeris refinement of 21 Hot Jupiter exoplanets with high timing uncertainties

Transit events of extrasolar planets offer a wealth of information for planetary characterization. However, for many known targets, the uncertainty of their predicted transit windows prohibits an accurate scheduling of follow-up observations. In this work, we refine the ephemerides of 21 Hot Jupiter exoplanets with the largest timing uncertainty. We collected 120 professional and amateur transit light curves of the targets of interest, observed with 0.3m to 2.2m telescopes, and analyzed them including the timing information of the planets discovery papers. In the case of WASP-117b, we measured a timing deviation compared to the known ephemeris of about 3.5 hours, for HAT-P-29b and HAT-P-31b the deviation amounted to about 2 hours and more. For all targets, the new ephemeris predicts transit timings with uncertainties of less than 6 minutes in the year 2018 and less than 13 minutes until 2025. Thus, our results allow for an accurate scheduling of follow-up observations in the next decade.

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arXiv2018

Confirmation of the radial velocity super-Earth K2-18c with HARPS and CARMENES

In an earlier campaign to characterize the mass of the transiting temperate super-Earth K2-18b with HARPS, a second, non-transiting planet was posited to exist in the system at $\sim 9$ days. Further radial velocity follow-up with the CARMENES spectrograph visible channel revealed a much weaker signal at 9 days which also appeared to vary chromatically and temporally leading to the conclusion that the origin of the 9 day signal was more likely to be related to stellar activity than to being planetary. Here we conduct a detailed re-analysis of all available RV time-series, including a set of 31 previously unpublished HARPS measurements, to investigate the effects of time-sampling and of simultaneous modelling of planetary + activity signals on the existence and origin of the curious 9 day signal. We conclude that the 9 day signal is real and was initially seen to be suppressed in the CARMENES data due to a small number of anomalous measurements, although the exact cause of these anomalies remains unknown. Investigation of the signal's evolution in time, with wavelength, and detailed model comparison reveals that the 9 day signal is most likely planetary in nature. By this analysis, we reconcile the conflicting HARPS and CARMENES results and measure precise and self-consistent planet masses of $m_{p,b} = 8.63 \pm 1.35$ and $m_{p,c}\sin{i_c}=5.62 \pm 0.84$ M$_{\oplus}$. This work, along with the previously published RV papers on the K2-18 planetary system, highlight the importance of understanding one's time-sampling and of simultaneous planet + stochastic activity modelling, particularly when searching for sub-Neptune-sized planets with radial velocities.

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arXiv2018

Radial velocity follow-up of GJ1132 with HARPS. A precise mass for planet 'b' and the discovery of a second planet

GJ1132 is a nearby red dwarf known to host a transiting Earth-size planet. After its initial detection, we pursued an intense follow-up with the HARPS velocimeter. We now confirm the detection of GJ1132b with radial velocities only. We refined its orbital parameters and, in particular, its mass ($m_b = 1.66\pm0.23 M_\oplus$), density ($ρ_b = 6.3\pm1.3$ g.cm$^{-3}$) and eccentricity ($e_b < 0.22 $; 95\%). We also detect at least one more planet in the system. GJ1132c is a super-Earth with period $P_c = 8.93\pm0.01$ days and minimum mass $m_c \sin i_c = 2.64\pm0.44~M_\oplus$. Receiving about 1.9 times more flux than Earth in our solar system, its equilibrium temperature is that of a temperate planet ($T_{eq}=230-300$ K for albedos $A=0.75-0.00$) and places GJ1132c near the inner edge of the so-called habitable zone. Despite an a priori favourable orientation for the system, $Spitzer$ observations reject most transit configurations, leaving a posterior probability $<1\%$ that GJ1132c transits. GJ1132(d) is a third signal with period $P_d = 177\pm5$ days attributed to either a planet candidate with minimum mass $m_d \sin i_d = 8.4^{+1.7}_{-2.5}~M_\oplus$ or stellar activity. (abridged)

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arXiv2018

Eyes on K2-3: A system of three likely sub-Neptunes characterized with HARPS-N and HARPS

M-dwarf stars are promising targets for identifying and characterizing potentially habitable planets. K2-3 is a nearby (45 pc), early-type M dwarf hosting three small transiting planets, the outermost of which orbits close to the inner edge of the stellar (optimistic) habitable zone. The K2-3 system is well suited for follow-up characterization studies aimed at determining accurate masses and bulk densities of the three planets. Using a total of 329 radial velocity measurements collected over 2.5 years with the HARPS-N and HARPS spectrographs and a proper treatment of the stellar activity signal, we aim to improve measurements of the masses and bulk densities of the K2-3 planets. We use our results to investigate the physical structure of the planets. We analyse radial velocity time series extracted with two independent pipelines by using Gaussian process regression. We adopt a quasi-periodic kernel to model the stellar magnetic activity jointly with the planetary signals. We use Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the robustness of our mass measurements of K2-3\,c and K2-3\,d, and to explore how additional high-cadence radial velocity observations might improve them. Despite the stellar activity component being the strongest signal present in the radial velocity time series, we are able to derive masses for both planet b ($M_{\rm b}=6.6\pm1.1$ $M_{\rm \oplus}$) and planet c ($M_{\rm c}=3.1^{+1.3}_{-1.2}$ $M_{\rm \oplus}$). The Doppler signal due to K2-3\,d remains undetected, likely because of its low amplitude compared to the radial velocity signal induced by the stellar activity. The closeness of the orbital period of K2-3\,d to the stellar rotation period could also make the detection of the planetary signal complicated. [...]

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arXiv2017

The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets XLII. A system of Earth-mass planets around the nearby M dwarf YZ Ceti

Exoplanet surveys have shown that systems with multiple low-mass planets on compact orbits are common. Except for few cases, however, the masses of these planets are generally unknown. At the very end of the main sequence, host stars have the lowest mass and hence offer the largest reflect motion for a given planet. In that context, we monitored the low-mass (0.13Msun) M dwarf YZ Cet (GJ 54.1, HIP 5643) intensively and obtained both radial velocities and stellar-activity indicators derived from both spectroscopy and photometry. We find strong evidence that it is orbited by at least three planets in compact orbits (P=1.97, 3.06, 4.66 days), with the inner two near a 2:3 mean-motion resonance. The minimum masses are comparable to that of Earth (Msini=0.75+-0.13, 0.98+-0.14, and 1.14+-0.17 Mearth) and also the lowest masses measured by radial velocity so far. We note the possibility for an even lower-mass, fourth planet with Msini=0.472+-0.096 Mearth at P=1.04 days. An n-body dynamical model is used to put further constraints on the system parameters. At 3.6 parsecs, YZ Cet is the nearest multi-planet system detected to date.

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arXiv2017

Characterization of the K2-18 multi-planetary system with HARPS: A habitable zone super-Earth and discovery of a second, warm super-Earth on a non-coplanar orbit

The bright M dwarf K2-18 at 34 pc is known to host a transiting super-Earth-sized planet orbiting within the star's habitable zone; K2-18b. Given the superlative nature of this system for studying an exoplanetary atmosphere receiving similar levels of insolation as the Earth, we aim to characterize the planet's mass which is required to interpret atmospheric properties and infer the planet's bulk composition. We obtain precision radial velocity measurements with the HARPS spectrograph and couple those measurements with the K2 photometry to jointly model the observed radial velocity variation with planetary signals and a radial velocity jitter model based on Gaussian process regression. We measure the mass of K2-18b to be $8.0 \pm 1.9$ M$_{\oplus}$ with a bulk density of $3.7 \pm 0.9$ g/cm$^3$ which may correspond to a predominantly rocky planet with a significant gaseous envelope or an ocean planet with a water mass fraction $\gtrsim 50$%. We also find strong evidence for a second, warm super-Earth K2-18c at $\sim 9$ days with a semi-major axis 2.4 times smaller than the transiting K2-18b. After re-analyzing the available light curves of K2-18 we conclude that K2-18c is not detected in transit and therefore likely has an orbit that is non-coplanar with K2-18b. A suite of dynamical integrations with varying simulated orbital eccentricities of the two planets are used to further constrain each planet's eccentricity posterior from which we measure $e_b < 0.43$ and $e_c < 0.47$ at 99% confidence. The discovery of the inner planet K2-18c further emphasizes the prevalence of multi-planet systems around M dwarfs. The characterization of the density of K2-18b reveals that the planet likely has a thick gaseous envelope which along with its proximity to the Solar system makes the K2-18 planetary system an interesting target for the atmospheric study of an exoplanet receiving Earth-like insolation.

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arXiv2016

A super-Earth orbiting the nearby M-dwarf GJ 536

We report the discovery of a super-Earth orbiting the star GJ 536 based on the analysis of the radial-velocity time series from the HARPS and HARPS-N spectrographs. GJ 536 b is a planet with a minimum mass M sin $i$ of 5.36 +- 0.69 Me with an orbital period of 8.7076 +- 0.0025 days at a distance of 0.066610(13) AU, and an orbit that is consistent with circular. The host star is the moderately quiet M1 V star GJ 536, located at 10 pc from the Sun. We find the presence of a second signal at 43 days that we relate to stellar rotation after analysing the time series of Ca II H&K and H alpha spectroscopic indicators and photometric data from the ASAS archive. We find no evidence linking the short period signal to any activity proxy. We also tentatively derived a stellar magnetic cycle of less than 3 years.

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arXiv2015

A HARPS view on K2-3

K2 space observations recently found that three super-Earths transit the nearby M dwarf K2-3. The apparent brightness and the small physical radius of their host star rank these planets amongst the most favourable for follow-up characterisations. The outer planet orbits close to the inner edge of the habitable zone and might become one of the first exoplanets searched for biomarkers using transmission spectroscopy. We used the HARPS velocimeter to measure the mass of the planets. The mass of planet $b$ is $8.4\pm2.1$ M$_\oplus$, while our determination of those planets $c$ and $d$ are affected by the stellar activity. With a density of $4.32^{+2.0}_{-0.76}$ $\mathrm{g\;cm^{-3}}$, planet $b$ is probably mostly rocky, but it could contain up to 50% water.

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