arXiv subjects

Aad van der Vaart

Publications and source records attributed to Aad van der Vaart.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Private Rate-Double-Robust Inference

We reconcile privacy protection and rate-double-robust inference. The privacy of individuals is protected by a local privacy mechanism: injecting noise into their sensitive data, revealing only the noisy data for inference. Hence, privacy protection hinders inference. In contrast, the inference of a target parameter is rate-double-robust when the large-sample bias of an estimator of the parameter is characterised by a trade-off between the estimation errors of two other, nuisance, parameters. Hence, rate-double-robustness facilitates inference. Our starting point of reconciliation is a class of rate-double-robust target parameters indexed linearly by an infinite-dimensional and nonlinearly by a low-dimensional regression. Among others, this includes causal parameters. To infer these targets privately, we show how suitable privacy mechanisms transfer the semiparametric properties of the sensitive-data model to the private setting. Rate-double-robustness is transferred, enabling locally-private, unbiased and semiparametrically efficient inference of our target parameters. Finally, we transform general nonparametric nuisance estimators into private ones, which inherit convergence properties of their nonprivate counterparts. For parametric nuisance models, we develop a private method-of-moments estimator and its large-sample inference theory.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Semi-parametric Bernstein-von Mises Theorem in a Parabolic PDE Problem

We consider the heat equation with absorption in a bounded domain of $\mathbb{R}^d$, where both the scalar diffusivity and the absorption function are unknown. We investigate a Bayesian approach for recovering the diffusivity from a noisy observation of the solution to the PDE over the domain. Given a Gaussian process prior on the absorption function, we derive a Bernstein-von Mises theorem for the marginal posterior distribution of the diffusivity under assumptions on the prior and on smoothness properties of the absorption.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Efficient Bayesian Inference in Strictly Semi-parametric Linear Inverse Problems

We consider the efficient inference of finite dimensional parameters arising in the context of inverse problems. Our setup is the observation of a transformation of an unknown infinite dimensional signal $f$ corrupted by statistical noise, with the transformation $K_θ$ being linear but unknown up to a scalar $θ$. We adopt a Bayesian approach and put a prior on the pair $(θ,f)$ and prove a Bernstein-von Mises theorem for the marginal posterior of $θ$ under regularity conditions on the operators $K_θ$ and on the prior. We apply our results to the recovery of location parameters in semi-blind deconvolution problems and to the recovery of attenuation constants in X-ray tomography.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Bootstrapping not under the null?

We propose a bootstrap testing framework for a general class of hypothesis tests, which allows resampling under the null hypothesis as well as other forms of bootstrapping. We identify combinations of resampling schemes and bootstrap statistics for which the resulting tests are asymptotically exact and consistent against fixed alternatives. We show that in these cases the limiting local power functions are the same for the different resampling schemes. We also show that certain naive bootstrap schemes do not work. To demonstrate its versatility, we apply the framework to several examples: independence tests, tests on the coefficients in linear regression models, goodness-of-fit tests for general parametric models and for semi-parametric copula models. Simulation results confirm the asymptotic results and suggest that in smaller samples non-traditional bootstrap schemes may have advantages. This bootstrap-based hypothesis testing framework is implemented in the R package BootstrapTests.

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arXiv2025

Semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises Phenomenon via Isotonized Posterior in Wicksell's problem

In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian approach for nonparametric estimation in Wicksell's problem. This has important applications in astronomy for estimating the distribution of the positions of the stars in a galaxy given projected stellar positions and in materials science to determine the 3D microstructure of a material, using its 2D cross sections. We deviate from the classical Bayesian nonparametric approach, which would place a Dirichlet Process (DP) prior on the distribution function of the unobservables, by directly placing a DP prior on the distribution function of the observables. Our method offers computational simplicity due to the conjugacy of the posterior and allows for asymptotically efficient estimation by projecting the posterior onto the $ \mathbb{L}_2 $ subspace of increasing, right-continuous functions. Indeed, the resulting Isotonized Inverse Posterior (IIP) satisfies a Bernstein--von Mises (BvM) phenomenon with minimax asymptotic variance $ g_0(x)/2γ$, where $ γ> 1/2 $ reflects the degree of Hölder continuity of the true cdf at $ x $. Since the IIP gives automatic uncertainty quantification, it eliminates the need to estimate $ γ$. Our results provide the first semiparametric Bernstein--von Mises theorem for projection-based posteriors with a DP prior in inverse problems.

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arXiv2025

Misspecified Bernstein-Von Mises theorem for hierarchical models

We derive a Bernstein von-Mises theorem in the context of misspecified, non-i.i.d., hierarchical models parametrized by a finite-dimensional parameter of interest. We apply our results to hierarchical models containing non-linear operators, including the squared integral operator, and PDE-constrained inverse problems. More specifically, we consider the elliptic, time-independent Schrödinger equation with parametric boundary condition and general parabolic PDEs with parametric potential and boundary constraints. Our theoretical results are complemented with numerical analysis on synthetic data sets, considering both the square integral operator and the Schrödinger equation.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Adaptation using spatially distributed Gaussian Processes

We consider the accuracy of an approximate posterior distribution in nonparametric regression problems by combining posterior distributions computed on subsets of the data defined by the locations of the independent variables. We show that this approximate posterior retains the rate of recovery of the full data posterior distribution, where the rate of recovery adapts to the smoothness of the true regression function. As particular examples we consider Gaussian process priors based on integrated Brownian motion and the Matérn kernel augmented with a prior on the length scale. Besides theoretical guarantees we present a numerical study of the methods both on synthetic and real world data. We also propose a new aggregation technique, which numerically outperforms previous approaches. Finally, we demonstrate empirically that spatially distributed methods can adapt to local regularities, potentially outperforming the original Gaussian process.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Simulation of infinite-dimensional diffusion bridges

Let X be the mild solution to a semilinear stochastic partial differential equation. In this article, we develop methodology to sample from the infinite-dimensional diffusion bridge that arises from conditioning X on a linear transformation LXT of the final state XT at some time T > 0. This solves a problem that has so far not been attended to in the literature. Our main contribution is the derivation of a path measure that is absolutely continuous with respect to the path measure of the infinite-dimensional diffusion bridge. This lifts previously known results for stochastic ordinary differential equations to the setting of infinite-dimensional diffusions and stochastic partial differential equations. We demonstrate our findings through numerical experiments on stochastic reaction-diffusion equations.

math.PR↗

arXiv2025

Semi-parametric Bernstein-von Mises in Linear Inverse Problems

We consider a Bayesian approach for the recovery of scalar parameters arising in inverse problems. We consider a general signal-in white noise model where we have access to two independent noisy observations of a function, and of a linear transformation of the function. The linear operator is unknown up to a scalar parameter. We present a Bernstein-von Mises theorem for the marginal posterior of the scalar under regularity assumptions of the operator. We further derive Bernstein-von Mises results for different priors and apply them to two concrete examples: the recovery of the thermal diffusivity in a heat equation problem, and the recovery of a location parameter in a semi-blind deconvolution problem.

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arXiv2025

On a class of exponential changes of measure for stochastic PDEs

Given a mild solution $X$ to a semilinear stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE), we consider an exponential change of measure based on its infinitesimal generator $L$, defined in the topology of bounded pointwise convergence. The changed measure $\mathbb{P}^h$ depends on the choice of a function $h$ in the domain of $L$. In our main result, we derive conditions on $h$ for which the change of measure is of Girsanov-type. The process $X$ under $\mathbb{P}^h$ is then shown to be a mild solution to another SPDE with an extra additive drift-term. We illustrate how different choices of $h$ impact the law of $X$ under $\mathbb{P}^h$ in selected applications. These include the derivation of an infinite-dimensional diffusion bridge as well as the introduction of guided processes for SPDEs, generalizing results known for finite-dimensional diffusion processes to the infinite-dimensional case.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Linear methods for non-linear inverse problems

We consider the recovery of an unknown function $f$ from a noisy observation of the solution $u_f$ to a partial differential equation that can be written in the form $\mathcal{L} u_f=c(f,u_f)$, for a differential operator $\mathcal{L}$ that is rich enough to recover $f$ from $\mathcal{L} u_f$. Examples include the time-independent Schrödinger equation $Δu_f = 2u_ff$, the heat equation with absorption term $(\partial_t -Δ_x/2) u_f=fu_f$, and the Darcy problem $\nabla\cdot (f \nabla u_f) = h$. We transform this problem into the linear inverse problem of recovering $\mathcal{L} u_f$ under the Dirichlet boundary condition, and show that Bayesian methods with priors placed either on $u_f$ or $\mathcal{L} u_f$ for this problem yield optimal recovery rates not only for $u_f$, but also for $f$. We also derive frequentist coverage guarantees for the corresponding Bayesian credible sets. Adaptive priors are shown to yield adaptive contraction rates for $f$, thus eliminating the need to know the smoothness of this function. The results are illustrated by numerical experiments on synthetic data sets.

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arXiv2024

The Bernstein-von Mises theorem for Semiparametric Mixtures

Semiparametric mixture models are parametric models with latent variables. They are defined kernel, $p_θ(x | z)$, where z is the unknown latent variable, and $θ$ is the parameter of interest. We assume that the latent variables are an i.i.d. sample from some mixing distribution $F$. A Bayesian would put a prior on the pair $(θ, F)$. We prove consistency for these models in fair generality and then study efficiency. We first prove an abstract Semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises theorem, and then provide tools to verify the assumptions. We use these tools to study the efficiency for estimating $θ$ in the frailty model and the errors in variables model in the case were we put a generic prior on $θ$ and a species sampling process prior on $F$.

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arXiv2024

Asymptotically efficient estimation under local constraint in Wicksell's problem

We consider nonparametric estimation of the distribution function $F$ of squared sphere radii in the classical Wicksell problem. Under smoothness conditions on $F$ in a neighborhood of $x$, in \cite{21} it is shown that the Isotonic Inverse Estimator (IIE) is asymptotically efficient and attains rate of convergence $\sqrt{n / \log n}$. If $F$ is constant on an interval containing $x$, the optimal rate of convergence increases to $\sqrt{n}$ and the IIE attains this rate adaptively, i.e.\ without explicitly using the knowledge of local constancy. However, in this case, the asymptotic distribution is not normal. In this paper, we introduce three \textit{informed} projection-type estimators of $F$, which use knowledge on the interval of constancy and show these are all asymptotically equivalent and normal. Furthermore, we establish a local asymptotic minimax lower bound in this setting, proving that the three \textit{informed} estimators are asymptotically efficient and a convolution result showing that the IIE is not efficient. We also derive the asymptotic distribution of the difference of the IIE with the efficient estimators, demonstrating that the IIE is \textit{not} asymptotically equivalent to the \textit{informed} estimators. Through a simulation study, we provide evidence that the performance of the IIE closely resembles that of its competitors.

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arXiv2023

Adaptive and Efficient Isotonic Estimation in Wicksell's Problem

We consider nonparametric estimation in Wicksell's problem which has relevant applications in astronomy for estimating the distribution of the positions of the stars in a galaxy given projected stellar positions and in material sciences to determine the 3D microstructure of a material, using its 2D cross sections. In the classical setting, we study the isotonized version of the plug-in estimator (IIE) for the underlying cdf $F$ of the spheres' squared radii. This estimator is fully automatic, in the sense that it does not rely on tuning parameters, and we show it is adaptive to local smoothness properties of the distribution function $F$ to be estimated. Moreover, we prove a local asymptotic minimax lower bound in this non-standard setting, with $\sqrt{\log{n}/n}$-asymptotics and where the functional $F$ to be estimated is not regular. Combined, our results prove that the isotonic estimator (IIE) is an adaptive, easy-to-compute, and efficient estimator for estimating the underlying distribution function $F$.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Optimal testing using combined test statistics across independent studies

Combining test statistics from independent trials or experiments is a popular method of meta-analysis. However, there is very limited theoretical understanding of the power of the combined test, especially in high-dimensional models considering composite hypotheses tests. We derive a mathematical framework to study standard {meta-analysis} testing approaches in the context of the many normal means model, which serves as the platform to investigate more complex models. We introduce a natural and mild restriction on the meta-level combination functions of the local trials. This allows us to mathematically quantify the cost of compressing $m$ trials into real-valued test statistics and combining these. We then derive minimax lower and matching upper bounds for the separation rates of standard combination methods for e.g. p-values and e-values, quantifying the loss relative to using the full, pooled data. We observe an elbow effect, revealing that in certain cases combining the locally optimal tests in each trial results in a sub-optimal {meta-analysis} method and develop approaches to achieve the global optima. We also explore the possible gains of allowing limited coordination between the trial designs. Our results connect meta-analysis with bandwidth constraint distributed inference and build on recent information theoretic developments in the latter field.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Higher Order Estimating Equations for High-dimensional Models

We introduce a new method of estimation of parameters in semiparametric and nonparametric models. The method is based on estimating equations that are $U$-statistics in the observations. The $U$-statistics are based on higher order influence functions that extend ordinary linear influence functions of the parameter of interest, and represent higher derivatives of this parameter. For parameters for which the representation cannot be perfect the method leads to a bias-variance trade-off, and results in estimators that converge at a slower than $\sqrt n$-rate. In a number of examples the resulting rate can be shown to be optimal. We are particularly interested in estimating parameters in models with a nuisance parameter of high dimension or low regularity, where the parameter of interest cannot be estimated at $\sqrt n$-rate, but we also consider efficient $\sqrt n$-estimation using novel nonlinear estimators. The general approach is applied in detail to the example of estimating a mean response when the response is not always observed.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Asymptotics of Caliper Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects

Caliper matching is used to estimate causal effects of a binary treatment from observational data by comparing matched treated and control units. Units are matched when their propensity scores, the conditional probability of receiving treatment given pretreatment covariates, are within a certain distance called caliper. So far, theoretical results on caliper matching are lacking, leaving practitioners with ad-hoc caliper choices and inference procedures. We bridge this gap by proposing a caliper that balances the quality and the number of matches. We prove that the resulting estimator of the average treatment effect, and average treatment effect on the treated, is asymptotically unbiased and normal at parametric rate. We describe the conditions under which semiparametric efficiency is obtainable, and show that when the parametric propensity score is estimated, the variance is increased for both estimands. Finally, we construct asymptotic confidence intervals for the two estimands.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Bayesian tolerance regions with an application to linear mixed models

We review and contrast frequentist and Bayesian definitions of tolerance regions. We give conditions under which for large samples a Bayesian region also has frequentist validity, and study the latter for smaller samples in a simulation study. We discuss a computational strategy for computing a Bayesian two-sided tolerance interval for a Gaussian future variable, and apply this to the case of possibly unbalanced linear mixed models. We illustrate the method on a quality control experiment from the pharmaceutical industry.

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