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Aaron C. Boley

Publications and source records attributed to Aaron C. Boley.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Rings in the Sky: Orbital Data Centres and Potential Impacts to Astronomy and the Sky

Megaconstellations of orbital data centres (ODCs) have the potential to fundamentally change the sky without a concerted mitigation effort. Potential changes include producing large coherent structures that would be visible during twilight and some portions of the night, as well as produce persistent infrared and radio source regions. We investigate the potential sky impacts of three ODC designs, as proposed by three companies. While more companies have proposed to launch megaconstellations of ODCs, other potential operators are expected to use the same design principles as presented here. These systems would produce large ring structures with each ring passing through the sky twice a day. The largest impacts are expected to occur during winter, where ring structures could be seen sweeping through otherwise dark skies. The confinement of the rings' orbital nodes will play a large role in determining whether the rings will be dense arcs in the sky or will produce sky-wide interference. The rings will persist throughout the day in polar regions, with the potential to interfere with polar science initiatives. Such structures will further have societal implications for high-latitude communities. We use simplified brightness models, which compare well with more detailed calculations, to show that brightness mitigation and/or hard limits on satellite numbers will be essential for preventing a future that has more visible satellites in the sky than visible stars during certain times of night.

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An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions

The number of objects in orbit is rapidly increasing, primarily driven by the launch of megaconstellations, an approach to satellite constellation design that involves large numbers of satellites paired with their rapid launch and disposal, as well as the overall proliferation of satellite systems. While satellites provide many benefits to society, their use comes with challenges, including the growth of space debris, collision risks, ground casualty risks, optical and radio-spectrum pollution, and the alteration of Earth's upper atmosphere through rocket emissions and reentry ablation. There is potential for current or planned actions in orbit to cause serious degradation of the orbital environment or lead to catastrophic outcomes, highlighting the urgent need to find better ways to quantify stress on the orbital environment. Here we propose a new metric, the CRASH Clock, that measures such stress in terms of the timescale for a possible catastrophic collision to occur if there are no satellite maneuvers or there is a severe loss in situational awareness. Our calculations show that the CRASH Clock is 5.5 days as of June 2025 and continues to decrease, which suggests there is limited time to recover from a wide-spread disruptive event, such as a solar storm. This is in stark contrast to the pre-megaconstellation era: in 2018, the CRASH Clock was 164 days.

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TrES-1 b: A Case Study in Detecting Secular Evolution of Exoplanet Orbits

We present a comprehensive analysis of transit, eclipse, and radial velocity data of the hot Jupiter TrES-1 b and confirm evidence of orbital variations on secular timescales. Apparent variations due to systemic motion and light travel time effects have been ruled out, indicating that the observed changes are dynamical in origin. Joint modeling of the TrES-1 b data favors an apsidal precession model, but the rapid precession rate of $4^\circ$ yr$^{-1}$ cannot be explained without invoking an undetected close-in planetary companion, which remains unseen in the data. While radial velocity measurements reveal a previously undetected companion candidate on a wide, eccentric orbit, it is unlikely to drive the observed evolution of TrES-1 b. However, an orbital decay model provides a plausible alternative if the loss of orbital energy is driven by planetary obliquity tides. We find that the best-fit orbital decay rate of $-7.1^{ +1.5}_{-1.6}$ ms yr$^{-1}$ is aligned with theoretical predictions for modified tidal quality factors of hot Jupiters if TrES-1 b has a planetary obliquity $\varepsilon_p > 30^\circ$. We encourage follow-up observations of this system, particularly of eclipse timing and radial velocities, to further constrain the nature of the observed evolution. This paper provides a practical framework for studying secular variations and aims to accelerate future research on similar systems.

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Satellite Visibility During the April 2024 Total Eclipse

On 8 April 2024, tens of millions of people across North America will be able to view a total solar eclipse. Such astronomical events have been important throughout history, but with nearly 10,000 satellites in orbit, we question whether total eclipses will now reveal a sky full of satellites, fundamentally changing this experience for humanity. Using the current population of Starlink satellites, we find that the brightest satellites would be naked-eye visible in dark skies, but the high sky brightness during totality will make them undetectable to the unaided eye. Our model does not take into account the effects of chance reflections from large, flat surfaces like solar panels, which we expect will cause glints and flares that could be visible from large satellites and abandoned rocket bodies. Time-lapse all-sky imaging might reveal satellites during the eclipse.

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Mass and Angular Momentum Transport in a Gravitationally Unstable Protoplanetary Disk with Improved 3D Radiative Hydrodynamics

During early phases of a protoplanetary disks's life, gravitational instabilities can produce significant mass transport, can dramatically alter disk structure, can mix and shock-process gas and solids, and may be instrumental in planet formation. We present a 3D grid-based radiative hydrodynamics study with varied resolutions of a 0.07 M$_\odot$ disk orbiting a 0.5 M$_\odot$ star as it settles over most of its radial extent into a quasi-steady asymptotic state that maintains approximate balance between heating produced by GIs and radiative cooling governed by realistic dust opacities. We assess disk stability criteria, thermodynamic properties, strengths of GIs, characteristics of density waves and torques produced by GIs, radial mass transport arising from these torques, and the level to which transport can be represented as local or nonlocal processes. Physical and thermal processes display distinct differences between inner optically thick and outer optically thin regions of the disk. In the inner region, gravitational torques are dominated by low-order Fourier components of the azimuthal mass distribution. These torques are strongly variable on the local dynamical time and are subject to rapid flaring presumably driven by recurrent swing amplification. In the outer region, m=1 torques dominate. Ring-like structures exhibiting strong noncircular motions, and vortices develop near the inner edge between 8 and 14 au. We find that GI-induced spiral modes erupt in a chaotic manner over the whole low-Q part of the disk, with many spiral modes appearing and disappearing, producing gravitoturbulence, but dominated by fluctuating large-scale modes, very different from a simple $α$-disk.

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Investigating the risks of debris-generating ASAT tests in the presence of megaconstellations

The development of large constellations of satellites (i.e., so-called megaconstellations or satcons) is poised to increase the number of LEO satellites by more than an order of magnitude in the coming decades. Such a rapid growth of satellite numbers makes the consequences of major fragmentation events ever more problematic. In this study, we investigate the collisional risk to on-orbit infrastructure from kinetic anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon tests, using the 2019 Indian test as a model. We find that the probability of one or more collisions occurring over the lifetime of ASAT fragments increases significantly in a satcon environment compared with the orbital environment in 2019. For the case of 65,000 satellites in LEO, we find that the chance of one or more satellites being struck by ASAT fragments of size 1 cm or larger is more than 25% for a single test. Including sizes down to 3 mm in our models suggests that impacts will occur for any such event. Finally, we apply our methods to examine the November 2021 Russian ASAT test, also finding a significant collision probability over the lifetime of the fragments. The heavy commercialization of LEO demands a commitment to avoiding debris-generating ASAT tests.

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Evidence of Long-Term Period Variations in the Exoplanet Transit Database (ETD)

We analyze a large number of citizen science data and identify eight Hot Jupiter systems that show evidence for deviations from a constant orbital period: HAT-P-19 b, HAT-P-32 b, TrES-1 b, TrES-2 b, TrES-5 b, WASP-4 b, WASP-10 b, and WASP-12 b. The latter system is already well known to exhibit strong evidence for tidal orbital decay and serves as an important control for this study. Several other systems we identify have disputed period drifts in the literature, allowing the results here to serve as an independent analysis. The citizen science data are from the Exoplanet Transit Database (ETD), which is a global project established in 2008 by the Variable Star and Exoplanet Section of the Czech Astronomical Society. With over 400 planets and 12,000 contributed observations spanning 15 years, the ETD is brimming with potential for studying the long-term orbital evolution of close-in Hot Jupiters. We use our results to discuss prioritization of targets for follow up investigations, which will be necessary to confirm the period drifts and their causes.

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Plaskett 1.8 metre Observations of Starlink Satellites

We present observations of 23 Starlink satellites in the $g'$ bandpass, obtained from the Dominion Astrophysical Observatory's Plaskett 1.8 metre telescope. The targets include a mixture of satellites with and without brightness mitigation measures (i.e., visors). At the time of the observations (16 July 2021), Starlink satellites were sunlight throughout the night, and even with strict elevation and azimuth limits, there were over 800 candidate Starlink arcs. The satellites altogether have a median absolute brightness (550 km) of $\overline{H}_g^{550} =5.3$ mag. Dividing the targets into those without and with visors, their median absolute magnitudes are $\overline{H}_g^{550}(no~visor)=5.1$ and $\overline{H}^{550}_g(visor)=5.7$ mag, respectively. While the visor sample is dimmer in aggregate, the absolute brightness distribution ranged from $H_g^{550}=4.3$ mag to 9.4 mag, with the brightest being a visored satellite and the dimmest a satellite with no mitigation. The intrinsic brightness dispersion among the full sample is $σ_g = 0.5$ mag.

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Precautionary Planetary Defence

The question of whether to attempt deflections during planetary defence emergencies has been subject to considerable decision-making analysis (Schmidt 2018; SMPAG Ad-Hoc Working Group on Legal Issues 2020). Hypothetical situations usually involve a newly discovered asteroid with a high impact probability on a set timescale. This paper addresses two further complexities: (1) limiting missions to an asteroid due to the risk of a human-caused Earth impact; and (2) active management of asteroids to place them in "safe harbours", even when impact risks are otherwise below "decision to act" thresholds. We use Apophis as a case study, and address the two complexities in turn.

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Collision rates of planetesimals near mean-motion resonances

In circumstellar discs, collisional grinding of planetesimals produces second-generation dust. While it remains unclear whether this ever becomes a major component of the total dust content, the presence of such dust, and potentially the substructure within, it can be used to explore a disc's physical conditions. A perturbing planet produces nonaxisymmetric structures and gaps in the dust, regardless of its origin. The dynamics of planetesimals, however, will be very different than that of small dust grains due to weaker gas interactions. Therefore, planetesimal collisions could create dusty disc structures that would not exist otherwise. In this work, we use N-body simulations to investigate the collision rate profile of planetesimals near mean-motion resonances. We find that a distinct bump or dip feature is produced in the collision profile, the presence of which depends on the libration width of the resonance and the separation between the peri- and apocenter distances of the edges of the resonance. The presence of one of these two features depends on the mass and eccentricity of the planet. Assuming that the radial dust emission traces the planetesimal collision profile, the presence of a bump or dip feature in the dust emission at the 2:1 mean-motion resonance can constrain the orbital properties of the perturbing planet. This assumption is valid, so long as radial drift does not play a significant role during the collisional cascade process. Under this assumption, these features in the dust emission should be marginally observable in nearby protoplanetary disks with ALMA.

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Transit Duration Variations in Multi-Planet Systems

A planet's orbital orientation relative to an observer's line of sight determines the chord length for a transiting planet, i.e., the projected distance a transiting planet travels across the stellar disc. For a given circular orbit, the chord length determines the transit duration. Changes in the orbital inclination, the direction of the ascending node, or both, can alter this chord length and thus result in transit duration variations (TDVs). Variation of the full orbital inclination vector can even lead to de-transiting or newly transiting planets for a system. We use Laplace-Lagrange secular theory to estimate the fastest nodal eigenfrequencies for over 100 short-period planetary systems. The highest eigenfrequency is an indicator of which systems should show the strongest TDVs. We further explore five cases (TRAPPIST-1, Kepler-11, K2-138, Kepler-445, and Kepler-334) using direct N-body simulations to characterize possible TDVs and to explore whether de-transiting planets could be possible for these systems. A range of initial conditions are explored, with each realization being consistent with the observed transits. We find that tens of percent of multiplanet systems have fast enough eigenfrequencies to expect large TDVs on decade timescales. Among the directly integrated cases, we find that de-transiting planets could occur on decade timescales and TDVs of 10 minutes per decade should be common.

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Meteoroid Stream Formation Due to the Extraction of Space Resources from Asteroids

[Abridged] Asteroid mining is not necessarily a distant prospect. Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx have recently rendezvoused with near-Earth asteroids and will return samples to Earth. While there is significant science motivation for these missions, there are also resource interests. Space agencies and commercial entities are particularly interested in ices and water-bearing minerals that could be used to produce rocket fuel in space. The internationally coordinated roadmaps of major space agencies depend on utilizing the natural resources of such celestial bodies. Several companies have already created plans for intercepting and extracting water and minerals from near-Earth objects, as even a small asteroid could have high economic worth. However, the low surface gravity of asteroids could make the release of mining waste and the subsequent formation of debris streams a consequence of asteroid mining. Strategies to contain material during extraction could still eventually require the purposeful jettison of waste to avoid managing unwanted mass. Using simulations, we explore the formation of mining debris streams by integrating particles released from four select asteroids. Radiation effects are included, and a range of debris sizes are explored. The simulation results are used to investigate the timescales for debris stream formation, the sizes of the streams, and the meteoroid fluxes compared with sporadic meteoroids. We find that for prodigious mining activities resulting in the loss of a few percent of the asteroid's mass or more, it is possible to produce streams that exceed the sporadic flux during stream crossing for some meteoroid sizes. The result of these simulations are intended to highlight potential unintended consequences that could result from NewSpace activity, which could help to inform efforts to develop international space resource guidelines.

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The Role of NewSpace in Furthering Canadian Astronomy

[Highly abridged, from executive summary] As much as NewSpace presents opportunities, there are significant challenges that must be overcome, requiring engagement with policy makers to influence domestic and international space governance. Failure to do so could result in a range of long-lasting negative outcomes for science and space stewardship. How will the Canadian astronomical community engage with NewSpace? What are the implications for NewSpace on the astro-environment, including Earth orbits, lunar and cis-lunar orbits, and surfaces of celestial bodies? This white paper analyzes the rapid changes in space use and what those changes could mean for Canadian astronomers. Our recommendations are as follows: Greater cooperation between the astronomical and the Space Situational Awareness communities is needed. Build closer ties between the astronomical community and Global Affairs Canada (GAC). Establish a committee for evaluating the astro-environmental impacts of human space use, including on and around the Moon and other bodies. CASCA and the Tri-Council should coordinate to identify programs that would enable Canadian astronomers to participate in pay-for-use services at appropriate funding levels. CASCA should continue to foster a relationship with CSA, but also build close ties to the private space industry. Canadian-led deep space missions are within Canada's capabilities, and should be pursued.

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Small and Moderate Aperture Telescopes for Research and Education

In this white paper (WP), we highlight several examples of small and moderate aperture telescopes that are being used for education and/or research. We further discuss potential costs for establishing new, small observatories, as well as joining existing international consortia. The WP includes a brief overview of select observing sites, with a discussion on how small telescopes at exceptional observing locations can be competitive, under certain circumstances, with larger and more expensive facilities located at poorer sites. In addition to research, these facilities enable many different types of educational experiences for wide range of people, from high school students to undergraduates to graduate students to postdocs. Canada should remain committed to partnering with large, international observatories such as CFHT, Gemini, and TMT, but it should also negotiate international agreements and commit funding to expand the use of small and moderate research observatories at domestic and international sites through coordination with the NRC, the Tri-Council, and the Canadian Foundation for Innovation. Both capital and operational costs (with site rental costs allowed) need to be included in support possibilities. CASCA should establish and maintain a small to moderate telescope expression of interest database that would help to facilitate Canadian institutions in organizing consortia, particularly for smaller institutions. The astronomical community should work with the NRC to make existing facilities more accessible to the astronomical community for research. This could involve, for example, automating the Plaskett and/or providing travel funds for supporting classical observing modes. Finally, a small to moderate aperture facility in the Arctic would be a world-class observatory and should be advanced over the next decade.

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The MESAS Project: Long wavelength follow-up observations of Sirius A

Modeling the submillimeter to centimeter emission of stars is challenging due to a lack of sensitive observations at these long wavelengths. We launched an ongoing campaign to obtain new observations entitled Measuring the Emission of Stellar Atmospheres at Submillimeter/millimeter wavelengths (MESAS). Here we present ALMA, GBT, and VLA observations of Sirius A, the closest main-sequence A-type star, that span from 1.4 to 9.0 millimeters. These observations complement our previous millimeter data on Sirius A and are entirely consistent with the PHOENIX stellar atmosphere models constructed to explain them. We note that accurate models of long wavelength emission from stars are essential not only to understand fundamental stellar processes, but also to determine the presence of dusty debris in spatially unresolved observations of circumstellar disks.

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Science with an ngVLA: Stellar Emission as a Source of Flux Bias in Debris Disks

Our understanding of stellar atmospheres and our ability to infer architectures of extrasolar planetary systems rely on understanding the emission of stars at submillimeter to centimeter wavelengths. In this chapter we describe how unconstrained stellar emission can interfere with the accurate characterization of circumstellar debris. The ngVLA is the only facility with the sensitivity that allows for the observations of a broad range of stellar spectral types in a feasible amount of time. The observations will enable the building and testing of accurate models of stellar emission, which in turn are required for evaluating both the occurrence and abundance of debris over the proposed wavelength range of the ngVLA

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Extended Millimeter Emission in the HD 141569 Circumstellar Disk Detected with ALMA

We present archival ALMA observations of the HD 141569 circumstellar disk at 345, 230, and 100 GHz. These data detect extended millimeter emission that is exterior to the inner disk. We find through simultaneous visibility modeling of all three data sets that the system's morphology is described well by a two-component disk model. The inner disk ranges from approximately 16 to 45 au with a spectral index of 1.81 (q = 2.95) and the outer disk ranges from 95 to 300 au with a spectral index of 2.28 (q = 3.21). Azimuthally averaged radial emission profiles derived from the continuum images at each frequency show potential emission that is consistent with the visibility modeling. The analysis presented here shows that at ~5 Myr HD 141569's grain size distribution is steeper, and therefore more evolved, in the outer disk than in the inner disk.

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Magnetic Fields Recorded by Chondrules Formed in Nebular Shocks

Recent laboratory efforts (Fu et al., 2014) have constrained the remanent magnetizations of chondrules and the magnetic field strengths at which the chondrules were exposed to as they cooled below their Curie points. An outstanding question is whether the inferred paleofields represent the background magnetic field of the solar nebula or were unique to the chondrule-forming environment. We investigate the amplification of the magnetic field above background values for two proposed chondrule formation mechanisms, large-scale nebular shocks and planetary bow shocks. Behind large-scale shocks, the magnetic field parallel to the shock front is amplified by factors $\sim 10-30$, regardless of the magnetic diffusivity. Therefore, chondrules melted in these shocks probably recorded an amplified magnetic field. Behind planetary bow shocks, the field amplification is sensitive to the magnetic diffusivity. We compute the gas properties behind a bow shock around a 3000 km-radius planetary embryo, with and without atmospheres, using hydrodynamics models. We calculate the ionization state of the hot, shocked gas, including thermionic emission from dust, and thermal ionization of gas-phase potassium atoms, and the magnetic diffusivity due to Ohmic dissipation and ambipolar diffusion. We find that the diffusivity is sufficiently large that magnetic fields have already relaxed to background values in the shock downstream where chondrules acquire magnetizations, and that these locations are sufficiently far from the planetary embryos that chondrules should not have recorded a significant putative dynamo field generated on these bodies. We conclude that, if melted in planetary bow shocks, chondrules probably recorded the background nebular field.

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