arXiv subjects

Aaron J. Hill

Publications and source records attributed to Aaron J. Hill.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

A Diffusion-Based Framework for High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasting over CONUS

Accurate precipitation forecasting is essential for hydrometeorological risk management, especially for anticipating extreme rainfall that can lead to flash flooding and infrastructure damage. This study introduces a diffusion-based deep learning (DL) framework that systematically compares three residual prediction strategies differing only in their input sources: (1) a fully data-driven model using only past observations from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, (2) a corrective model using only forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction system, and (3) a hybrid model integrating both MRMS and selected HRRR forecast variables. By evaluating these approaches under a unified setup, we provide a clearer understanding of how each data source contributes to predictive skill over the Continental United States (CONUS). Forecasts are produced at 1-km spatial resolution, beginning with direct 1-hour predictions and extending to 12 hours using autoregressive rollouts. Performance is evaluated using both CONUS-wide and region-specific metrics that assess overall performance and skill at extreme rainfall thresholds. Across all lead times, our DL framework consistently outperforms the HRRR baseline in pixel-wise and spatiostatistical metrics. The hybrid model performs best at the shortest lead time, while the HRRR-corrective model outperforms others at longer lead times, maintaining high skill through 12 hours. To assess reliability, we incorporate calibrated uncertainty quantification tailored to the residual learning setup. These gains, particularly at longer lead times, are critical for emergency preparedness, where modest increases in forecast horizon can improve decision-making. This work advances DL-based precipitation forecasting by enhancing predictive skill, reliability, and applicability across regions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

A new paradigm for medium-range severe weather forecasts: probabilistic random forest-based predictions

Historical observations of severe weather and simulated severe weather environments (i.e., features) from the Global Ensemble Forecast System v12 (GEFSv12) Reforecast Dataset (GEFS/R) are used in conjunction to train and test random forest (RF) machine learning (ML) models to probabilistically forecast severe weather out to days 4--8. RFs are trained with 9 years of the GEFS/R and severe weather reports to establish statistical relationships. Feature engineering is briefly explored to examine alternative methods for gathering features around observed events, including simplifying features using spatial averaging and increasing the GEFS/R ensemble size with time-lagging. Validated RF models are tested with ~1.5 years of real-time forecast output from the operational GEFSv12 ensemble and are evaluated alongside expert human-generated outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Both RF-based forecasts and SPC outlooks are skillful with respect to climatology at days 4 and 5 with degrading skill thereafter. The RF-based forecasts exhibit tendencies to underforecast severe weather events, but they tend to be well-calibrated at lower probability thresholds. Spatially averaging predictors during RF training allows for prior-day thermodynamic and kinematic environments to generate skillful forecasts, while time-lagging acts to expand the forecast areas, increasing resolution but decreasing objective skill. The results highlight the utility of ML-generated products to aid SPC forecast operations into the medium range.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Spiking Neural Streaming Binary Arithmetic

Boolean functions and binary arithmetic operations are central to standard computing paradigms. Accordingly, many advances in computing have focused upon how to make these operations more efficient as well as exploring what they can compute. To best leverage the advantages of novel computing paradigms it is important to consider what unique computing approaches they offer. However, for any special-purpose co-processor, Boolean functions and binary arithmetic operations are useful for, among other things, avoiding unnecessary I/O on-and-off the co-processor by pre- and post-processing data on-device. This is especially true for spiking neuromorphic architectures where these basic operations are not fundamental low-level operations. Instead, these functions require specific implementation. Here we discuss the implications of an advantageous streaming binary encoding method as well as a handful of circuits designed to exactly compute elementary Boolean and binary operations.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2021

Neuromorphic scaling advantages for energy-efficient random walk computation

Computing stands to be radically improved by neuromorphic computing (NMC) approaches inspired by the brain's incredible efficiency and capabilities. Most NMC research, which aims to replicate the brain's computational structure and architecture in man-made hardware, has focused on artificial intelligence; however, less explored is whether this brain-inspired hardware can provide value beyond cognitive tasks. We demonstrate that high-degree parallelism and configurability of spiking neuromorphic architectures makes them well-suited to implement random walks via discrete time Markov chains. Such random walks are useful in Monte Carlo methods, which represent a fundamental computational tool for solving a wide range of numerical computing tasks. Additionally, we show how the mathematical basis for a probabilistic solution involving a class of stochastic differential equations can leverage those simulations to provide solutions for a range of broadly applicable computational tasks. Despite being in an early development stage, we find that NMC platforms, at a sufficient scale, can drastically reduce the energy demands of high-performance computing (HPC) platforms.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2020

Solving a steady-state PDE using spiking networks and neuromorphic hardware

The widely parallel, spiking neural networks of neuromorphic processors can enable computationally powerful formulations. While recent interest has focused on primarily machine learning tasks, the space of appropriate applications is wide and continually expanding. Here, we leverage the parallel and event-driven structure to solve a steady state heat equation using a random walk method. The random walk can be executed fully within a spiking neural network using stochastic neuron behavior, and we provide results from both IBM TrueNorth and Intel Loihi implementations. Additionally, we position this algorithm as a potential scalable benchmark for neuromorphic systems.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2017

A Digital Neuromorphic Architecture Efficiently Facilitating Complex Synaptic Response Functions Applied to Liquid State Machines

Information in neural networks is represented as weighted connections, or synapses, between neurons. This poses a problem as the primary computational bottleneck for neural networks is the vector-matrix multiply when inputs are multiplied by the neural network weights. Conventional processing architectures are not well suited for simulating neural networks, often requiring large amounts of energy and time. Additionally, synapses in biological neural networks are not binary connections, but exhibit a nonlinear response function as neurotransmitters are emitted and diffuse between neurons. Inspired by neuroscience principles, we present a digital neuromorphic architecture, the Spiking Temporal Processing Unit (STPU), capable of modeling arbitrary complex synaptic response functions without requiring additional hardware components. We consider the paradigm of spiking neurons with temporally coded information as opposed to non-spiking rate coded neurons used in most neural networks. In this paradigm we examine liquid state machines applied to speech recognition and show how a liquid state machine with temporal dynamics maps onto the STPU-demonstrating the flexibility and efficiency of the STPU for instantiating neural algorithms.

q-bio.NC↗