arXiv subjects

Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali

Publications and source records attributed to Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Iterating Consistency Models: Stability, Error Bounds and Noise Schedules

Consistency models (CMs) have become a leading approach for generating high-quality samples in few steps. However, adding steps can improve or degrade sample quality in ways that are highly sensitive to the schedule and that existing theory does not fully explain. To provide accuracy guarantees and guide CM sampler design, we analyze multistep CM sampling as a composition of noising and approximate denoising operators. Under explicit, verifiable stability assumptions, we derive a non-asymptotic error bound that separates contraction of the initialization error from accumulation of approximation error. The bound assigns distinct roles to the schedule: large early noise levels drive contraction, while small late noise levels control the residual bias. As a corollary, we obtain explicit constants for strongly log-concave and semi-log-concave targets. We further establish a complementary guarantee whose assumptions, one-step accuracy and stability, can be estimated for a given trained model. Experiments show that the contraction and approximation profiles entering our bounds can be reliably measured and closely match the predicted functional forms. Together, these results provide a meaningful convergence theory for multi-step CMs and a practical route to sampler design.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Efficient Risk Estimation for the Credit Valuation Adjustment

The valuation of over-the-counter derivatives is subject to a series of valuation adjustments known as xVA, which pose additional risks for financial institutions. Associated risk measures, such as the value-at-risk of an underlying valuation adjustment, play an important role in managing these risks. Monte Carlo methods are often regarded as inefficient for computing such measures. As an example, we consider the value-at-risk of the Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA-VaR), which can be expressed using a triple nested expectation. Traditional Monte Carlo methods are often inefficient at handling several nested expectations. Utilising recent developments in multilevel nested simulation for probabilities, we construct a hierarchical estimator of the CVA-VaR which reduces the computational complexity by 3 orders of magnitude compared to standard Monte Carlo.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2026

Multi-index importance sampling for McKean--Vlasov stochastic differential equations

This work addresses the estimation of rare-event quantities expressed as expectations of smooth observables of solutions to a broad class of McKean--Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MV-SDEs). Building on the double loop Monte Carlo (DLMC) method with stochastic optimal control-based importance sampling (IS) introduced by Ben Rached et al. (2024a), this work extends this framework to the multi-index Monte Carlo (MIMC) setting. The resulting multi-index DLMC estimator mitigates the explosion of the coefficient of variation for rare event quantities. Moreover, it exploits the sampling efficiency of MIMC by leveraging the propagation of chaos to ensure mixed-difference variances vanish in the mean-field limit. The complexity analysis relies on assumptions on mixed-difference bias and variance decay, similar to standard MIMC assumptions. Although not rigorously proved, this work presents strong numerical evidence in support of these assumptions. The primary contribution of this work is the novel numerical integration of the MIMC method with IS for MV-SDEs. This approach reduces the computational complexity from $\mathcal{O}(\mathrm{TOL}_{\mathrm{r}}^{-4})$ for the DLMC estimator to $\mathcal{O}(\mathrm{TOL}_{\mathrm{r}}^{-2} (\log \mathrm{TOL}_{\mathrm{r}}^{-1})^2)$, enabling an accurate estimation of rare-event quantities within a prescribed relative error tolerance $\mathrm{TOL}_{\mathrm{r}}$. Numerical experiments on the Kuramoto model from statistical physics demonstrate computational savings of several orders of magnitude for the multi-index DLMC estimator with IS, compared with the standard Monte Carlo (MC) method.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

An Adaptive Sampling Algorithm for Level-set Approximation

We propose a new numerical scheme for approximating level-sets of Lipschitz multivariate functions which is robust to stochastic noise. The algorithm's main feature is an adaptive grid-based stochastic approximation strategy which automatically refines the approximation over regions close to the level set. This strategy combines a local function approximation method with a noise reduction scheme and produces $\varepsilon$-accurate approximations with an expected cost complexity reduction of $\varepsilon^{-\left(\frac{p+1}{αp}\right)}$ compared to a non-adaptive scheme, where $α$ is the convergence rate of the function approximation method and we assume that the noise can be controlled in $L^p$. We provide numerical experiments in support of our theoretical findings. These include 2- and 3-dimensional functions with a complex level set structure, as well as a failure region estimation problem described by a hyperelasticity partial differential equation with random field coefficients.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

Bayesian computation with generative diffusion models by Multilevel Monte Carlo

Generative diffusion models have recently emerged as a powerful strategy to perform stochastic sampling in Bayesian inverse problems, delivering remarkably accurate solutions for a wide range of challenging applications. However, diffusion models often require a large number of neural function evaluations per sample in order to deliver accurate posterior samples. As a result, using diffusion models as stochastic samplers for Monte Carlo integration in Bayesian computation can be highly computationally expensive, particularly in applications that require a substantial number of Monte Carlo samples for conducting uncertainty quantification analyses. This cost is especially high in large-scale inverse problems such as computational imaging, which rely on large neural networks that are expensive to evaluate. With quantitative imaging applications in mind, this paper presents a Multilevel Monte Carlo strategy that significantly reduces the cost of Bayesian computation with diffusion models. This is achieved by exploiting cost-accuracy trade-offs inherent to diffusion models to carefully couple models of different levels of accuracy in a manner that significantly reduces the overall cost of the calculation, without reducing the final accuracy. The proposed approach achieves a $4\times$-to-$8\times$ reduction in computational cost w.r.t. standard techniques across three benchmark imaging problems.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2025

An Antithetic Multilevel Monte Carlo-Milstein Scheme for Stochastic Partial Differential Equations with non-commutative noise

We present a novel multilevel Monte Carlo approach for estimating quantities of interest for stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Drawing inspiration from [Giles and Szpruch: Antithetic multilevel Monte Carlo estimation for multi-dimensional SDEs without Lévy area simulation, Annals of Appl. Prob., 2014], we extend the antithetic Milstein scheme for finite-dimensional stochastic differential equations to Hilbert space-valued SPDEs. Our method has the advantages of both Euler and Milstein discretizations, as it is easy to implement and does not involve intractable Lévy area terms. Moreover, the antithetic correction in our method leads to the same variance decay in a MLMC algorithm as the standard Milstein method, resulting in significantly lower computational complexity than a corresponding MLMC Euler scheme. Our approach is applicable to a broader range of non-linear diffusion coefficients and does not require any commutative properties. The key component of our MLMC algorithm is a truncated Milstein-type time stepping scheme for SPDEs, which accelerates the rate of variance decay in the MLMC method when combined with an antithetic coupling on the fine scales. We combine the truncated Milstein scheme with appropriate spatial discretizations and noise approximations on all scales to obtain a fully discrete scheme and show that the antithetic coupling does not introduce an additional bias.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

The multi-index Monte Carlo method for semilinear stochastic partial differential equations

Stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) are often difficult to solve numerically due to their low regularity and high dimensionality. These challenges limit the practical use of computer-aided studies and pose significant barriers to statistical analysis of SPDEs. In this work, we introduce a highly efficient multi-index Monte Carlo method (MIMC) designed to approximate statistics of mild solutions to semilinear parabolic SPDEs. Key to our approach is the proof of a multiplicative convergence property for coupled solutions generated by an exponential integrator numerical solver, which we incorporate with MIMC. We further describe theoretically how the asymptotic computational cost of MIMC can be bounded in terms of the input accuracy tolerance, as the tolerance goes to zero. Notably, our methodology illustrates that for an SPDE with low regularity, MIMC offers substantial performance improvements over other viable methods. Numerical experiments comparing the performance of MIMC with the multilevel Monte Carlo method on relevant test problems validate our theoretical findings. These results also demonstrate that MIMC significantly outperforms state-of-the-art multilevel Monte Carlo, thereby underscoring its potential as a robust and tractable tool for solving semilinear parabolic SPDEs.

math.NA↗

arXiv2024

Forward Propagation of Low Discrepancy Through McKean-Vlasov Dynamics: From QMC to MLQMC

This work develops a particle system addressing the approximation of McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The novelty of the approach lies in involving low discrepancy sequences nontrivially in the construction of a particle system with coupled noise and initial conditions. Weak convergence for SDEs with additive noise is proven. A numerical study demonstrates that the novel approach presented here doubles the respective convergence rates for weak and strong approximation of the mean-field limit, compared with the standard particle system. These rates are proven in the simplified setting of a mean-field ordinary differential equation in terms of appropriate bounds involving the star discrepancy for low discrepancy sequences with a group structure, such as Rank-1 lattice points. This construction nontrivially provides an antithetic multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo estimator. An asymptotic error analysis reveals that the proposed approach outperforms methods based on the classic particle system with independent initial conditions and noise.

math.NA↗

arXiv2024

Weak convergence analysis in the particle limit of the McKean--Vlasov equations using stochastic flows of particle systems

We present a proof showing that the weak error of a system of $n$ interacting stochastic particles approximating the solution of the McKean-Vlasov equation is $\mathcal O(n^{-1})$. Our proof is based on the Kolmogorov backward equation for the particle system and bounds on the derivatives of its solution, which we derive more generally using the variations of the stochastic particle system. The convergence rate is verified by numerical experiments, which also indicate that the assumptions made here and in the literature can be relaxed.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Multilevel Path Branching for Digital Options

We propose a new Monte Carlo-based estimator for digital options with assets modelled by a stochastic differential equation (SDE). The new estimator is based on repeated path splitting and relies on the correlation of approximate paths of the underlying SDE that share parts of a Brownian path. Combining this new estimator with Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) leads to an estimator with a computational complexity that is similar to the complexity of a MLMC estimator when applied to options with Lipschitz payoffs. This preprint includes detailed calculations and proofs (in grey colour) which are not peer-reviewed and not included in the published article.

math.NA↗

arXiv2024

Multilevel Importance Sampling for Rare Events Associated With the McKean--Vlasov Equation

This work combines multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) with importance sampling to estimate rare-event quantities that can be expressed as the expectation of a Lipschitz observable of the solution to a broad class of McKean--Vlasov stochastic differential equations. We extend the double loop Monte Carlo (DLMC) estimator introduced in this context in (Ben Rached et al., 2023) to the multilevel setting. We formulate a novel multilevel DLMC estimator and perform a comprehensive cost-error analysis yielding new and improved complexity results. Crucially, we devise an antithetic sampler to estimate level differences guaranteeing reduced computational complexity for the multilevel DLMC estimator compared with the single-level DLMC estimator. To address rare events, we apply the importance sampling scheme, obtained via stochastic optimal control in (Ben Rached et al., 2023), over all levels of the multilevel DLMC estimator. Combining importance sampling and multilevel DLMC reduces computational complexity by one order and drastically reduces the associated constant compared to the single-level DLMC estimator without importance sampling. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed multilevel DLMC estimator on the Kuramoto model from statistical physics with Lipschitz observables, confirming the reduced complexity from $\mathcal{O}(\mathrm{TOL}_{\mathrm{r}}^{-4})$ for the single-level DLMC estimator to $\mathcal{O}(\mathrm{TOL}_{\mathrm{r}}^{-3})$ while providing a feasible estimate of rare-event quantities up to prescribed relative error tolerance $\mathrm{TOL}_{\mathrm{r}}$.

math.NA↗

arXiv2023

Double-Loop Importance Sampling for McKean--Vlasov Stochastic Differential Equation

This paper investigates Monte Carlo (MC) methods to estimate probabilities of rare events associated with solutions to the $d$-dimensional McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equation (MV-SDE). MV-SDEs are usually approximated using a stochastic interacting $P$-particle system, which is a set of $P$ coupled $d$-dimensional stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Importance sampling (IS) is a common technique for reducing high relative variance of MC estimators of rare-event probabilities. We first derive a zero-variance IS change of measure for the quantity of interest by using stochastic optimal control theory. However, when this change of measure is applied to stochastic particle systems, it yields a $P \times d$-dimensional partial differential control equation (PDE), which is computationally expensive to solve. To address this issue, we use the decoupling approach introduced in [dos Reis et al., 2023], generating a $d$-dimensional control PDE for a zero-variance estimator of the decoupled SDE. Based on this approach, we develop a computationally efficient double loop MC (DLMC) estimator. We conduct a comprehensive numerical error and work analysis of the DLMC estimator. As a result, we show optimal complexity of $\mathcal{O}(\mathrm{TOL}_{\mathrm{r}}^{-4})$ with a significantly reduced constant to achieve a prescribed relative error tolerance $\mathrm{TOL}_{\mathrm{r}}$. Subsequently, we propose an adaptive DLMC method combined with IS to numerically estimate rare-event probabilities, substantially reducing relative variance and computational runtimes required to achieve a given $\mathrm{TOL}_{\mathrm{r}}$ compared with standard MC estimators in the absence of IS. Numerical experiments are performed on the Kuramoto model from statistical physics.

math.NA↗

arXiv2023

Nested Multilevel Monte Carlo with Biased and Antithetic Sampling

We consider the problem of estimating a nested structure of two expectations taking the form $U_0 = E[\max\{U_1(Y), π(Y)\}]$, where $U_1(Y) = E[X\ |\ Y]$. Terms of this form arise in financial risk estimation and option pricing. When $U_1(Y)$ requires approximation, but exact samples of $X$ and $Y$ are available, an antithetic multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) approach has been well-studied in the literature. Under general conditions, the antithetic MLMC estimator obtains a root mean squared error $\varepsilon$ with order $\varepsilon^{-2}$ cost. If, additionally, $X$ and $Y$ require approximate sampling, careful balancing of the various aspects of approximation is required to avoid a significant computational burden. Under strong convergence criteria on approximations to $X$ and $Y$, randomised multilevel Monte Carlo techniques can be used to construct unbiased Monte Carlo estimates of $U_1$, which can be paired with an antithetic MLMC estimate of $U_0$ to recover order $\varepsilon^{-2}$ computational cost. In this work, we instead consider biased multilevel approximations of $U_1(Y)$, which require less strict assumptions on the approximate samples of $X$. Extensions to the method consider an approximate and antithetic sampling of $Y$. Analysis shows the resulting estimator has order $\varepsilon^{-2}$ asymptotic cost under the conditions required by randomised MLMC and order $\varepsilon^{-2}|\log\varepsilon|^3$ cost under more general assumptions.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2022

State-dependent Importance Sampling for Estimating Expectations of Functionals of Sums of Independent Random Variables

Estimating the expectations of functionals applied to sums of random variables (RVs) is a well-known problem encountered in many challenging applications. Generally, closed-form expressions of these quantities are out of reach. A naive Monte Carlo simulation is an alternative approach. However, this method requires numerous samples for rare event problems. Therefore, it is paramount to use variance reduction techniques to develop fast and efficient estimation methods. In this work, we use importance sampling (IS), known for its efficiency in requiring fewer computations to achieve the same accuracy requirements. We propose a state-dependent IS scheme based on a stochastic optimal control formulation, where the control is dependent on state and time. We aim to calculate rare event quantities that could be written as an expectation of a functional of the sums of independent RVs. The proposed algorithm is generic and can be applied without restrictions on the univariate distributions of RVs or the functional applied to the sum. We apply this approach to the log-normal distribution to compute the left tail and cumulative distribution of the ratio of independent RVs. For each case, we numerically demonstrate that the proposed state-dependent IS algorithm compares favorably to most well-known estimators dealing with similar problems.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2022

Sub-sampling and other considerations for efficient risk estimation in large portfolios

Computing risk measures of a financial portfolio comprising thousands of derivatives is a challenging problem because (a) it involves a nested expectation requiring multiple evaluations of the loss of the financial portfolio for different risk scenarios and (b) evaluating the loss of the portfolio is expensive and the cost increases with its size. In this work, we look at applying Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) with adaptive inner sampling to this problem and discuss several practical considerations. In particular, we discuss a sub-sampling strategy whose computational complexity does not increase with the size of the portfolio. We also discuss several control variates that significantly improve the efficiency of MLMC in our setting.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2021

Efficient Importance Sampling for Large Sums of Independent and Identically Distributed Random Variables

We discuss estimating the probability that the sum of nonnegative independent and identically distributed random variables falls below a given threshold, i.e., $\mathbb{P}(\sum_{i=1}^{N}{X_i} \leq γ)$, via importance sampling (IS). We are particularly interested in the rare event regime when $N$ is large and/or $γ$ is small. The exponential twisting is a popular technique for similar problems that, in most cases, compares favorably to other estimators. However, it has some limitations: i) it assumes the knowledge of the moment generating function of $X_i$ and ii) sampling under the new IS PDF is not straightforward and might be expensive. The aim of this work is to propose an alternative IS PDF that approximately yields, for certain classes of distributions and in the rare event regime, at least the same performance as the exponential twisting technique and, at the same time, does not introduce serious limitations. The first class includes distributions whose probability density functions (PDFs) are asymptotically equivalent, as $x \rightarrow 0$, to $bx^{p}$, for $p>-1$ and $b>0$. For this class of distributions, the Gamma IS PDF with appropriately chosen parameters retrieves approximately, in the rare event regime corresponding to small values of $γ$ and/or large values of $N$, the same performance of the estimator based on the use of the exponential twisting technique. In the second class, we consider the Log-normal setting, whose PDF at zero vanishes faster than any polynomial, and we show numerically that a Gamma IS PDF with optimized parameters clearly outperforms the exponential twisting IS PDF. Numerical experiments validate the efficiency of the proposed estimator in delivering a highly accurate estimate in the regime of large $N$ and/or small $γ$.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2021

Adaptive Multilevel Monte Carlo for Probabilities

We consider the numerical approximation of $\mathbb{P}[G\in Ω]$ where the $d$-dimensional random variable $G$ cannot be sampled directly, but there is a hierarchy of increasingly accurate approximations $\{G_\ell\}_{\ell\in\mathbb{N}}$ which can be sampled. The cost of standard Monte Carlo estimation scales poorly with accuracy in this setup since it compounds the approximation and sampling cost. A direct application of Multilevel Monte Carlo improves this cost scaling slightly, but returns sub-optimal computational complexities since estimation of the probability involves a discontinuous functional of $G_\ell$. We propose a general adaptive framework which is able to return the MLMC complexities seen for smooth or Lipschitz functionals of $G_\ell$. Our assumptions and numerical analysis are kept general allowing the methods to be used for a wide class of problems. We present numerical experiments on nested simulation for risk estimation, where $G = \mathbb{E}[X|Y]$ is approximated by an inner Monte Carlo estimate. Further experiments are given for digital option pricing, involving an approximation of a $d$-dimensional SDE.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2019

Multilevel nested simulation for efficient risk estimation

We investigate the problem of computing a nested expectation of the form $\mathbb{P}[\mathbb{E}[X|Y] \!\geq\!0]\!=\!\mathbb{E}[\textrm{H}(\mathbb{E}[X|Y])]$ where $\textrm{H}$ is the Heaviside function. This nested expectation appears, for example, when estimating the probability of a large loss from a financial portfolio. We present a method that combines the idea of using Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) for nested expectations with the idea of adaptively selecting the number of samples in the approximation of the inner expectation, as proposed by (Broadie et al., 2011). We propose and analyse an algorithm that adaptively selects the number of inner samples on each MLMC level and prove that the resulting MLMC method with adaptive sampling has an $\mathcal{O}\left( \varepsilon^{-2}|\log\varepsilon|^2 \right)$ complexity to achieve a root mean-squared error $\varepsilon$. The theoretical analysis is verified by numerical experiments on a simple model problem. We also present a stochastic root-finding algorithm that, combined with our adaptive methods, can be used to compute other risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), with the latter being achieved with $\mathcal{O}\left(\varepsilon^{-2}\right)$ complexity.

q-fin.CP↗