arXiv subjects

Abhimanyu Susobhanan

Publications and source records attributed to Abhimanyu Susobhanan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Robust Bayesian non-linear pulsar timing and noise analysis using a sequential data-tempered ensemble sampler

We develop a sequential ensemble MCMC scheme for Bayesian pulsar timing and noise analysis that uses data size as the tempering parameter. The method enables gradual and reliable convergence from potentially uninformed initial points by iteratively increasing the data size, thereby increasing sensitivity and progressively narrowing the target distribution until the posterior of the full dataset is reached. The initial iterations use sub-datasets that can be orders of magnitude smaller than the full dataset, substantially reducing computational cost, which is further lowered by employing approximate lower-rank models justified by the reduced sensitivity of these sub-datasets. Bayesian inference is performed using the final MCMC chain sampled from the true target distribution after applying appropriate burn-in. We demonstrate the method using the NANOGrav 12.5-year data of PSR B1855+09, showing progressive convergence to the target posterior and that most of the computational time is spent sampling the true target distribution rather than in the preceding tempered iterations.

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arXiv2026

Optimal Pulsar Timing Array Strategies with the Deep Synoptic Array

Pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments have seen evidence for a nanohertz-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB) through coordinated radio timing observations of millisecond pulsars. The significance of this evidence is expected to grow and the GWB's progenitor(s) uncovered with continued observations, especially as the next generation of radio telescopes comes online. We present a framework for simulating timing observations of a set of pulsars with a set of telescopes to predict the per-pulsar optimal instrument, observing frequency, and integration time. We apply this methodology to the NANOGrav source list of 85 pulsars observed with the Green Bank Telescope, Very Large Array, Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME), and the Deep Synoptic Array (DSA), a radio dish array under construction in Nevada. We discuss the dominant noise contributions to the timing precision of these pulsars and show that most are not dominated by intrinsic pulse phase jitter noise. We also determine which pulsars should be timed with DSA and CHIME or only DSA and show that an ab initio DSA PTA is more sensitive than one which uses current instruments. Finally, we solve for the optimal integration time per pulsar, subject to a fixed time budget, that maximizes the GWB signal-to-noise. We show that there is little benefit to optimizing over integration time for these pulsars observed with DSA. Through Monte Carlo realizations of the PTA, we show that the GWB sensitivity improves by $\sim 5\%$ for time-optimized observations compared to the equal-time-per-source scenario with an early-science, fixed source list.

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arXiv2026

Profile Reconstruction from Temporally Stable Emission Components for Timing PSR J1713+0747

The assumption of long-term pulse-profile stability underpins high-precision pulsar timing and forms the basis of pulsar timing array experiments. However, several millisecond pulsars exhibit temporal profile variability that can introduce systematic biases in pulse time of arrival measurements and compromise timing precision. We present a profile-domain analysis of PSR J1713+0747 at low radio frequencies, in the 300-500 MHz band, using upgraded GMRT observations for the Indian Pulsar Timing Array experiment. We model frequency-resolved pulse profiles using a Bayesian Gaussian decomposition framework in which individual Gaussian components are associated with persistent emission regions through informative phase priors that permit modest temporal variations. By tracking the evolution of the decomposed components across observing epochs and frequency sub-bands, we identify central Gaussian components that remain precisely localized despite changes in the integrated pulse morphology. We then reconstruct pulse profiles with realistic noise using these central components and perform timing analysis. Our approach provides a physically motivated framework for mitigating pulse-profile variability and offers a generic methodology for recovering robust timing information from pulsars exhibiting profile evolution.

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arXiv2026

The Indian Pulsar Timing Array Data Release 2: III. Search for a Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background

We present the first independent search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background in the second data release of the Indian Pulsar Timing Array, comprising of 27 millisecond pulsars monitored simultaneously in two frequency bands with the upgraded Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope over a maximum 7.2 year baseline. Building on a comprehensive single pulsar noise analysis, we search for a common uncorrelated red noise process within a Bayesian inference framework and with the noise-marginalized optimal statistics, and we test the robustness of the result through per-pulsar dropout analyses and solar-wind exclusion cuts. Leaving the spectral index free, we recover a broad amplitude posterior, $\log_{10} A_{\rm CURN} = -13.71^{+1.06}_{-3.28}$, with an unconstrained spectral index $γ_{\rm CURN} = 2.98^{+3.62}_{-2.70}$ and a Savage-Dickey Bayes factor of $2.5$ for a common red process over the no signal model. The optimal-statistic signal to noise ratios for the monopole, dipole, and Hellings-Downs correlations are all consistent with zero. Fixing the spectral index to $γ= 13/3$, the value predicted by an idealized toy model in which the background is sourced by a population of supermassive black hole binaries in circular orbits evolving purely under leading-order gravitational radiation reaction, we place a $95\%$ upper limit on the common-process amplitude of $A_{\rm GWB} < 3.4\times10^{-14}$, stable across solar elongation cuts of $10^\circ$, $20^\circ$, and $30^\circ$. This limit lies approximately an order of magnitude above the amplitudes reported by other, longer-running pulsar timing array experiments. We also demonstrate through simulated datasets with the addition of simple chromatic and achromatic noise components that it will take at least a 10 year baseline to start recovering the common red noise signal.

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arXiv2026

PSRDISP: A novel approach to modeling dispersive processes in single-pulsar noise analysis using epoch-wise dispersion measures

We present PSRDISP, a novel approach to modeling deterministic and stochastic dispersive processes in pulsar timing datasets using high-precision epoch-wise dispersion measure (DM) estimates, with a Gaussian Process-based approach. Unlike the conventional single-pulsar noise analysis methodology, which is applied to frequency-resolved times of arrival (ToAs) of pulses, this technique is applied to epoch-wise DMs which are derived from these ToAs. It can also be applied to wideband DMs measured simultaneously with wideband ToAs. Therefore, this framework provides a paradigm-agnostic approach to characterise single-pulsar dispersive processes. This method is expected to minimise the impact of achromatic red noise processes while characterising these dispersive effects. We substantiate the discussed technique with representative examples using simulated narrowband and wideband datasets with realistic noise injections. We found the recovery to be in close agreement with the injections, and agnostic to the estimation technique. Our method applies to pulsar timing experiments where precise, epoch-wise DM estimates are possible, such as the Indian Pulsar Timing Array. This technique can serve as a powerful diagnostic tool for validating single-pulsar noise analyses, which is crucial for precision pulsar timing experiments, such as Pulsar Timing Arrays.

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arXiv2026

QuickGWecc: Fast Bayesian pipeline for searching eccentric binaries in pulsar timing array data

Recent pulsar timing array (PTA) results have provided evidence for the presence of a nanohertz gravitational wave (GW) background, most likely originating from a population of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs). The next major milestone is the detection of continuous GWs (CGWs) from an individual SMBHB and the identification of its electromagnetic counterpart. Typically, searches for CGWs in PTA data assume binaries in circular orbits. However, theoretical studies indicate that binaries emitting GWs in the PTA frequency band may retain significant eccentricity. In this paper, we present a fast and efficient Bayesian pipeline to search for CGWs from individual SMBHBs in relativistic eccentric orbits in PTA datasets. Our approach extends the QuickCW framework for circular binaries, in which model parameters are divided into projection and shape parameters. Computational efficiency is achieved by performing many updates of the projection parameters for a fixed set of shape parameters, an operation that is orders of magnitude faster than updating the shape parameters. We validate the pipeline through both detection and upper-limit analyses of simulated PTA datasets. This framework makes the search for eccentric SMBHBs computationally feasible, even in the next-generation PTA datasets with many more pulsars.

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arXiv2026

Evaluating the Fourier Approximation in Pulsar Timing Array Analysis

Pulsar timing arrays search for stochastic processes such as gravitational waves by comparing pulse time of arrival data for millisecond pulsars to expectations from a background with a given power spectral density (PSD). To make the analysis computationally tractable, the Bayesian likelihood is usually computed using an approximation in which the signal is taken to be a sum of Fourier modes appropriate to the total time of observation, even though the true signal is not periodic. We study the difference between likelihoods computed with this Fourier approximation method for power law spectra and those computed exactly (or using more-closely spaced frequencies as a proxy for the exact result) in the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. We find that the true marginal likelihoods for power-law PSDs are on average about half as large as the likelihoods computed using the Fourier approximation. This could lead to an error of a factor of two in model comparison. However, in the important comparison of uncorrelated vs. Hellings-Downs correlated models, a very similar correction appears in both, so the model comparison is essentially unaffected. We also compare parameter estimation results for power law PSDs, finding little difference between the methods. We briefly discuss spectra with sharper features, for which the approximation could be much worse.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Customized Chromatic Noise Models

Pulsar timing arrays conduct low-frequency gravitational wave searches, which require comprehensive accounting of various noise sources to achieve robust results. Interstellar propagation effects (e.g., dispersion and scattering) are especially complex noise sources, introducing chromatic delays that can reduce sensitivity to gravitational waves and bias their inference if left unmodeled. These delays also strongly depend on the line of sight properties to each individual pulsar. To address this, we present customized chromatic noise models for 67 pulsars in the NANOGrav 15 yr dataset. These models are selected from an expanded suite of Gaussian processes to simultaneously characterize multiple types of chromatic delays and are tailored to each pulsar's dataset. Alongside probing the interstellar medium, we use these models to infer the solar wind electron density over the course of $\sim 1.5$ solar cycles. We also find evidence for non-dispersive chromatic delays in 21 out of 67 NANOGrav pulsars. After applying our chromatic models, we observe significant impacts on the inference of achromatic noise in 19 out of 67 pulsars, finding in several cases that a previously significant achromatic noise process can be partially or entirely described as chromatic. These results demonstrate that refined noise modeling is essential to enhance the sensitivity and accuracy of low-frequency gravitational wave searches with pulsar timing arrays.

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arXiv2026

Gravitational Wave Measurement of the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ Intrinsic Scatter at High Redshift

The observed GWB spectrum is higher in amplitude than model predictions by a factor of 2-3. Using a semi-analytic model, we evaluate the effect of a high-scatter supermassive black hole (SMBH) scaling relation ($M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$) on models of the nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB). By implementing an intrinsic scatter of the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ relation, which is larger at higher redshift, but matches local observations, we find that the amplitude of GWB models increases to be consistent with the low-frequency end of the GWB spectrum. This amplitude increase is not uniform across frequencies, a strongly evolving scatter preferentially increases the number density of the most massive SMBHs which, in the GWB spectrum, minimizes the strength of the low-frequency turnover. Our models with positively evolving intrinsic scatter can reproduce the electromagnetically observed overmassive SMBHs at $4 < z < 6$ without changing the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ normalization though we find that including moderate normalization evolution marginally improves fits to the GWB data. We conclude that the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ relation which best describes the available GWB and electromagnetic data sets has intrinsic scatter that evolves as $\varepsilon(z) = \varepsilon_0 + (0.56 \pm 0.4) \log_{10}(1 + z)$ and normalization that evolves as $α(z) = α_0 (1 + z)^{0.84 \pm 0.35}$. The results of this work imply that the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ relation we see today is not universal throughout cosmic time and that a diversity of seeding models and growth mechanisms may be at play in the early stages of SMBH-galaxy evolution.

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arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15-Year Data Set: A Case Study for Simplified Dispersion Measure Modeling for PSR J1455-3330 and the Impact on Gravitational Wave Sensitivity

Evidence for a low-frequency gravitational-wave background using pulsar timing arrays has generated recent interest into its underlying contributing sources. However, multiple investigations have seen that the significance of the evidence does not change with choice of pulsar modeling techniques but the resulting parameters from the gravitational wave searches do. PSR J1455-3330 is one of the longest-observed pulsars in the array monitored by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) but showed no evidence for long-timescale red noise, either intrinsic or the common signal found among many pulsars in the array. In this work, we argue that NANOGrav's piecewise-constant function used to model variations in radio-frequency-dependent dispersive delay should not be used for this pulsar, and a much simpler physical model of a fixed solar wind density plus a linear trend in dispersion measure is preferred. When the original model is replaced, (i) the pulsar's timing parallax signal changes from an upper limit to a significant detection, (ii) red noise becomes significant, and (iii) the red noise is consistent with the common signal found for the other pulsars. Neither of these signals are radio-frequency dependent. While the same physical motivation will not apply to many of the pulsars currently used in pulsar timing arrays, we argue for careful physically-motivated timing and noise modeling of pulsars used in precision timing experiments.

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arXiv2026

Constraints on Einstein-aether gravity from the precision timing of PSR J1738+0333

We constrain Einstein-aether gravity -- a Lorentz-violating extension of General Relativity in which a dynamical, unit timelike vector field selects a preferred frame -- using updated high-precision pulsar timing observations of PSR J1738+0333 from EPTA second Data Release and the NANOGrav 9-year release, in combination with ToAs from Arecibo, Green Bank, Nancay, Parkes, and Westerbork. Our method accounts for both conservative and dissipative first post-Newtonian corrections arising from Lorentz violation; here we apply it to PSR J1738+0333 using the Bayesian timing pipeline Vela to process the full ToA dataset. We sample the joint posterior over binary component masses, post-Keplerian parameters and center-of-mass velocity components, and then apply a resampling scheme to propagate posteriors into robust constraints on the fundamental theory parameters, obtaining the most stringent strong-field bounds on the Einstein-aether coupling constants from a single binary pulsar system to date.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr and 20 yr Datasets: Timing Events and Pulse Shape Changes

The average pulse shape of a pulsar is typically stable over decadal timescales, enabling estimation of pulse times of arrival to better than a small fraction of the pulse width using matched filtering techniques. However, in North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) observations of PSR J1713+0747, three discrete timing events that depart from the prevailing timing model have been seen in the last 20 yr. All three correspond to morphological changes in pulse shape. Using principal component analysis, we analyze the pulse profiles of nine NANOGrav pulsars, including seven with profiles from the 15 yr dataset and two with additional profiles from the forthcoming 20 yr dataset. We recover the three known pulse shape change events in PSR J1713+0747 and another previously known event in PSR J1643$-$1224. We implement a ranking metric for candidate events and address four highly ranked candidates in this nine-pulsar sample. We also recover known slow pulse shape variations in PSR J1643$-$1224, PSR J1903+0327, and PSR B1937+21 and report an unexpected recurrence after ~10 yr of one such variation in PSR B1937+21.

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arXiv2026

Searching for Exotrojans in Pulsar Systems

Trojan asteroids are found in the equilateral triangle Lagrange points of the Sun-Jupiter system in great number, though they also exist less prolifically in other parts of the Solar System. Despite up to planetary mass Trojans being predicted in extrasolar systems (i.e. exotrojans), they remain unconfirmed, although strong candidate evidence has emerged recently. For the first time, we extend the search for exotrojans to radio pulsars with low-mass ($\sim0.01\,\rm{M}_\odot$) companions using accurately measured pulse times of arrival. With techniques developed for detecting the reflex motion of a star due to a librating Trojan, we place $\sim 1\,\rm{M}_\oplus$ upper mass constraints on potential exotrojans around eight pulsars observed in the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find weak evidence consistent with $\sim2$--4$\,\rm{M}_{\rm J}$ exotrojans in the PSR~J0023+0923 and PSR~J1705$-$1903 binary systems, though the signals likely have a different, unknown source. We also place a libration-independent upper mass constraint of $\sim8$\,M$_{\rm J}$ on exotrojans in the PSR~J1641+8049 system by looking for an inconsistency between the times of superior conjunction as measured by optical light curves and those predicted by radio timing. These results offer initial observational constraints on the existence of exotrojans around pulsars, while their possible formation mechanisms remain unexplored.

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arXiv2026

CHIME-o-Grav: Wideband Timing of Four Millisecond Pulsars from the NANOGrav 15-yr dataset

Wideband timing of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) datasets, where a single time-of-arrival (TOA) and a single dispersion measure (DM) are measured using the entire bandwidth of each observation, was first done for the 12.5-year dataset, and proved to be invaluable for characterizing the time-varying dispersion measure, reducing the data volume, and for improving the overall timing precision. The Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME) Telescope has been observing most NANOGrav millisecond pulsars (MSPs) at nearly daily cadence (compared to roughly monthly cadence for other NANOGrav observations) since 2019 with the objective of integration into future pulsar timing array (PTA) datasets. In this paper, we show the results of integration of high-cadence, low-observing-frequency CHIME data with data from the NANOGrav experiment for an isolated MSP PSR J0645$+$5158 and three binary MSPs PSR J1012$+$5307, PSR J2145$-$0750, and PSR J2302$+$4442. Using a wideband timing pipeline which we also describe, we present updated timing results for all four sources, including improvements in measurements of relativistic post-Keplerian parameters for the three binary pulsars in this analysis. For PSR J2302$+$4442, we report an updated strong detection of Shapiro delay from which we measured a companion mass of $0.35^{+0.05}_{-0.04}\ M_{\odot}$, a pulsar mass of $1.8^{+0.3}_{-0.3}\ M_{\odot}$, and an orbital inclination of ${80^{\circ}}^{+1}_{-2}$. We also report updated constraints on the reflex motion for PSR J2145$-$0750 using a combination of Very Long Baseline Array astrometry and our updated measurement of the time derivative of the projected semi-major axis of the pulsar orbit as a prior.

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arXiv2026

The Indian Pulsar Timing Array Data Release 2: II. Customised Single-Pulsar Noise Analysis and Noise Budget

We present the results of customised single-pulsar noise analysis of 27 millisecond pulsars from the second data release of the Indian Pulsar Timing Array (InPTA-DR2). We model various stochastic noise sources present in the dataset using stationary Gaussian processes and estimate the noise budget of the InPTA-DR2 using Bayesian inference, involving model selection, Fourier harmonics selection, and parameter estimation for each pulsar. We check the efficacy of our noise characterisation by performing the Anderson-Darling test for Gaussianity on the noise-subtracted residuals. We find that all 11 pulsars with time baseline $\lesssim2.5\,\text{yr}$ show Gaussian residuals and do not have evidence for any red noise process in the optimal model, except for PSR J1944$+$0907, which shows presence of DM noise. PSRs J0437$-$4715, J1909$-$3744 and J1939$+$2134 show preference for the most complicated noise model, having achromatic and chromatic red noise processes. Only 4 out of 15 pulsars with time baseline $\gtrsim2.5\,\text{yr}$ show significant non-Gaussianity in noise-subtracted residuals. We suspect that this may require more advanced methods to model noise processes properly. A comparative study of six pulsars with data removed near solar conjunctions showed deviations from the parameter estimates obtained with the original dataset, indicating potential bias in red noise processes due to unmodeled solar-wind effects. The results presented in this work remain broadly consistent with the InPTA-DR1 noise budget, with better constraints obtained on noise processes for several pulsars and support for achromatic red noise in PSR J1012$+$5307 due to the extended time baseline.

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arXiv2026

Revisiting wideband pulsar timing measurements

In the wideband paradigm of pulsar timing, the time of arrival of a pulsar pulse is measured simultaneously with the corresponding dispersion measure from a frequency-resolved integrated pulse profile. We present a new method for performing wideband measurements that rigorously accounts for measurement noise. We demonstrate this method using observations of PSR J2124$-$3358 made as part of the Indian Pulsar Timing Array experiment using the upgraded Giant Metre-wave Radio Telescope, and show that our method produces more realistic measurement uncertainty estimates compared to the existing wideband measurement method.

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arXiv2026

Inference on inner galaxy structure via gravitational waves from supermassive binaries

The detection of a stochastic gravitational wave background by pulsar-timing arrays indicates the presence of a population of supermassive black hole binaries. Although the observed spectrum generally matches predictions for orbital evolution driven by gravitational-wave emission in circular orbits, there is a preference for a spectral turnover at the lowest observed frequencies, which may point to substantial hardening during a transition from early environmental influences to later stages dominated by emission. In the vicinity of these binaries, the ejection of stars or dark matter particles through gravitational three-body slingshots efficiently extracts orbital energy, leading to a low-frequency turnover in the spectrum. Here we model how the gravitational-wave spectrum depends on the initial inner galactic profile before scouring by binary ejections while accounting for a range of initial binary eccentricities. By analysing the NANOGrav 15-year data, we find that a parsec-scale galactic-centre density of around $10^6 M_{\odot} \mathrm{pc}^{-3}$ is favoured across most of the parameter space, thus shedding light on the environmental effects that shape black hole evolution and the combined matter density near galaxy centres.

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arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Piecewise Power-Law Reconstruction of the Gravitational-Wave Background

The NANOGrav 15-year (NG15) data set provides evidence for a gravitational-wave background (GWB) signal at nanohertz frequencies, which is expected to originate either from a cosmic population of inspiraling supermassive black-hole binaries or new particle physics in the early Universe. A firm identification of the source of the NG15 signal requires an accurate reconstruction of its frequency spectrum. In this paper, we provide such a spectral characterization of the NG15 signal based on a piecewise power-law (PPL) ansatz that strikes a balance between existing alternatives in the literature. Our PPL reconstruction is more flexible than the standard constant-power-law model, which describes the GWB spectrum in terms of only two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index gamma. Concurrently, it better approximates physically realistic GWB spectra -- especially those of cosmological origin -- than the free spectral model, since the latter allows for arbitrary variations in the GWB amplitude from one frequency bin to the next. Our PPL reconstruction of the NG15 signal relies on individual PPL models with a fixed number of internal nodes (i.e., constant power law, broken power law, doubly broken power law, etc.) that are ultimately combined in a Bayesian model average. The data products resulting from our analysis provide the basis for fast refits of spectral GWB models.

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