arXiv subjects

Abir De

Publications and source records attributed to Abir De.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Counterfactual Explanations in Sequential Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Methods to find counterfactual explanations have predominantly focused on one step decision making processes. In this work, we initiate the development of methods to find counterfactual explanations for decision making processes in which multiple, dependent actions are taken sequentially over time. We start by formally characterizing a sequence of actions and states using finite horizon Markov decision processes and the Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Building upon this characterization, we formally state the problem of finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes. In our problem formulation, the counterfactual explanation specifies an alternative sequence of actions differing in at most k actions from the observed sequence that could have led the observed process realization to a better outcome. Then, we introduce a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming to build a counterfactual policy that is guaranteed to always provide the optimal counterfactual explanation on every possible realization of the counterfactual environment dynamics. We validate our algorithm using both synthetic and real data from cognitive behavioral therapy and show that the counterfactual explanations our algorithm finds can provide valuable insights to enhance sequential decision making under uncertainty.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Integrating Transductive And Inductive Embeddings Improves Link Prediction Accuracy

In recent years, inductive graph embedding models, \emph{viz.}, graph neural networks (GNNs) have become increasingly accurate at link prediction (LP) in online social networks. The performance of such networks depends strongly on the input node features, which vary across networks and applications. Selecting appropriate node features remains application-dependent and generally an open question. Moreover, owing to privacy and ethical issues, use of personalized node features is often restricted. In fact, many publicly available data from online social network do not contain any node features (e.g., demography). In this work, we provide a comprehensive experimental analysis which shows that harnessing a transductive technique (e.g., Node2Vec) for obtaining initial node representations, after which an inductive node embedding technique takes over, leads to substantial improvements in link prediction accuracy. We demonstrate that, for a wide variety of GNN variants, node representation vectors obtained from Node2Vec serve as high quality input features to GNNs, thereby improving LP performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Group Testing under Superspreading Dynamics

Testing is recommended for all close contacts of confirmed COVID-19 patients. However, existing group testing methods are oblivious to the circumstances of contagion provided by contact tracing. Here, we build upon a well-known semi-adaptive pool testing method, Dorfman's method with imperfect tests, and derive a simple group testing method based on dynamic programming that is specifically designed to use the information provided by contact tracing. Experiments using a variety of reproduction numbers and dispersion levels, including those estimated in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, show that the pools found using our method result in a significantly lower number of tests than those found using standard Dorfman's method, especially when the number of contacts of an infected individual is small. Moreover, our results show that our method can be more beneficial when the secondary infections are highly overdispersed.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

Training Data Subset Selection for Regression with Controlled Generalization Error

Data subset selection from a large number of training instances has been a successful approach toward efficient and cost-effective machine learning. However, models trained on a smaller subset may show poor generalization ability. In this paper, our goal is to design an algorithm for selecting a subset of the training data, so that the model can be trained quickly, without significantly sacrificing on accuracy. More specifically, we focus on data subset selection for L2 regularized regression problems and provide a novel problem formulation which seeks to minimize the training loss with respect to both the trainable parameters and the subset of training data, subject to error bounds on the validation set. We tackle this problem using several technical innovations. First, we represent this problem with simplified constraints using the dual of the original training problem and show that the objective of this new representation is a monotone and alpha-submodular function, for a wide variety of modeling choices. Such properties lead us to develop SELCON, an efficient majorization-minimization algorithm for data subset selection, that admits an approximation guarantee even when the training provides an imperfect estimate of the trained model. Finally, our experiments on several datasets show that SELCON trades off accuracy and efficiency more effectively than the current state-of-the-art.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

GRAD-MATCH: Gradient Matching based Data Subset Selection for Efficient Deep Model Training

The great success of modern machine learning models on large datasets is contingent on extensive computational resources with high financial and environmental costs. One way to address this is by extracting subsets that generalize on par with the full data. In this work, we propose a general framework, GRAD-MATCH, which finds subsets that closely match the gradient of the training or validation set. We find such subsets effectively using an orthogonal matching pursuit algorithm. We show rigorous theoretical and convergence guarantees of the proposed algorithm and, through our extensive experiments on real-world datasets, show the effectiveness of our proposed framework. We show that GRAD-MATCH significantly and consistently outperforms several recent data-selection algorithms and achieves the best accuracy-efficiency trade-off. GRAD-MATCH is available as a part of the CORDS toolkit: \url{https://github.com/decile-team/cords}.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Adversarial Permutation Guided Node Representations for Link Prediction

After observing a snapshot of a social network, a link prediction (LP) algorithm identifies node pairs between which new edges will likely materialize in future. Most LP algorithms estimate a score for currently non-neighboring node pairs, and rank them by this score. Recent LP systems compute this score by comparing dense, low dimensional vector representations of nodes. Graph neural networks (GNNs), in particular graph convolutional networks (GCNs), are popular examples. For two nodes to be meaningfully compared, their embeddings should be indifferent to reordering of their neighbors. GNNs typically use simple, symmetric set aggregators to ensure this property, but this design decision has been shown to produce representations with limited expressive power. Sequence encoders are more expressive, but are permutation sensitive by design. Recent efforts to overcome this dilemma turn out to be unsatisfactory for LP tasks. In response, we propose PermGNN, which aggregates neighbor features using a recurrent, order-sensitive aggregator and directly minimizes an LP loss while it is `attacked' by adversarial generator of neighbor permutations. By design, PermGNN{} has more expressive power compared to earlier symmetric aggregators. Next, we devise an optimization framework to map PermGNN's node embeddings to a suitable locality-sensitive hash, which speeds up reporting the top-$K$ most likely edges for the LP task. Our experiments on diverse datasets show that \our outperforms several state-of-the-art link predictors by a significant margin, and can predict the most likely edges fast.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Regression Under Human Assistance

Decisions are increasingly taken by both humans and machine learning models. However, machine learning models are currently trained for full automation -- they are not aware that some of the decisions may still be taken by humans. In this paper, we take a first step towards the development of machine learning models that are optimized to operate under different automation levels. More specifically, we first introduce the problem of ridge regression under human assistance and show that it is NP-hard. Then, we derive an alternative representation of the corresponding objective function as a difference of nondecreasing submodular functions. Building on this representation, we further show that the objective is nondecreasing and satisfies $α$-submodularity, a recently introduced notion of approximate submodularity. These properties allow a simple and efficient greedy algorithm to enjoy approximation guarantees at solving the problem. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data from two important applications -- medical diagnosis and content moderation-demonstrate that our algorithm outsources to humans those samples in which the prediction error of the ridge regression model would have been the highest if it had to make a prediction, it outperforms several competitive baselines, and its performance is robust with respect to several design choices and hyperparameters used in the experiments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Classification Under Human Assistance

Most supervised learning models are trained for full automation. However, their predictions are sometimes worse than those by human experts on some specific instances. Motivated by this empirical observation, our goal is to design classifiers that are optimized to operate under different automation levels. More specifically, we focus on convex margin-based classifiers and first show that the problem is NP-hard. Then, we further show that, for support vector machines, the corresponding objective function can be expressed as the difference of two functions f = g - c, where g is monotone, non-negative and γ-weakly submodular, and c is non-negative and modular. This representation allows a recently introduced deterministic greedy algorithm, as well as a more efficient randomized variant of the algorithm, to enjoy approximation guarantees at solving the problem. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data from several applications in medical diagnosis illustrate our theoretical findings and demonstrate that, under human assistance, supervised learning models trained to operate under different automation levels can outperform those trained for full automation as well as humans operating alone.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Long Horizon Forecasting With Temporal Point Processes

In recent years, marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) have emerged as a powerful modeling machinery to characterize asynchronous events in a wide variety of applications. MTPPs have demonstrated significant potential in predicting event-timings, especially for events arriving in near future. However, due to current design choices, MTPPs often show poor predictive performance at forecasting event arrivals in distant future. To ameliorate this limitation, in this paper, we design DualTPP which is specifically well-suited to long horizon event forecasting. DualTPP has two components. The first component is an intensity free MTPP model, which captures microscopic or granular level signals of the event dynamics by modeling the time of future events. The second component takes a different dual perspective of modeling aggregated counts of events in a given time-window, thus encapsulating macroscopic event dynamics. Then we develop a novel inference framework jointly over the two models % for efficiently forecasting long horizon events by solving a sequence of constrained quadratic optimization problems. Experiments with a diverse set of real datasets show that DualTPP outperforms existing MTPP methods on long horizon forecasting by substantial margins, achieving almost an order of magnitude reduction in Wasserstein distance between actual events and forecasts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Demarcating Endogenous and Exogenous Opinion Dynamics: An Experimental Design Approach

The networked opinion diffusion in online social networks (OSN) is often governed by the two genres of opinions - endogenous opinions that are driven by the influence of social contacts among users, and exogenous opinions which are formed by external effects like news, feeds etc. Accurate demarcation of endogenous and exogenous messages offers an important cue to opinion modeling, thereby enhancing its predictive performance. In this paper, we design a suite of unsupervised classification methods based on experimental design approaches, in which, we aim to select the subsets of events which minimize different measures of mean estimation error. In more detail, we first show that these subset selection tasks are NP-Hard. Then we show that the associated objective functions are weakly submodular, which allows us to cast efficient approximation algorithms with guarantees. Finally, we validate the efficacy of our proposal on various real-world datasets crawled from Twitter as well as diverse synthetic datasets. Our experiments range from validating prediction performance on unsanitized and sanitized events to checking the effect of selecting optimal subsets of various sizes. Through various experiments, we have found that our method offers a significant improvement in accuracy in terms of opinion forecasting, against several competitors.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Differentially Private Link Prediction With Protected Connections

Link prediction (LP) algorithms propose to each node a ranked list of nodes that are currently non-neighbors, as the most likely candidates for future linkage. Owing to increasing concerns about privacy, users (nodes) may prefer to keep some of their connections protected or private. Motivated by this observation, our goal is to design a differentially private LP algorithm, which trades off between privacy of the protected node-pairs and the link prediction accuracy. More specifically, we first propose a form of differential privacy on graphs, which models the privacy loss only of those node-pairs which are marked as protected. Next, we develop DPLP , a learning to rank algorithm, which applies a monotone transform to base scores from a non-private LP system, and then adds noise. DPLP is trained with a privacy induced ranking loss, which optimizes the ranking utility for a given maximum allowed level of privacy leakage of the protected node-pairs. Under a recently-introduced latent node embedding model, we present a formal trade-off between privacy and LP utility. Extensive experiments with several real-life graphs and several LP heuristics show that DPLP can trade off between privacy and predictive performance more effectively than several alternatives.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Can A User Anticipate What Her Followers Want?

Whenever a social media user decides to share a story, she is typically pleased to receive likes, comments, shares, or, more generally, feedback from her followers. As a result, she may feel compelled to use the feedback she receives to (re-)estimate her followers' preferences and decides which stories to share next to receive more (positive) feedback. Under which conditions can she succeed? In this work, we first look into this problem from a theoretical perspective and then provide a set of practical algorithms to identify and characterize such behavior in social media. More specifically, we address the above problem from the viewpoint of sequential decision making and utility maximization. For a wide variety of utility functions, we first show that, to succeed, a user needs to actively trade off exploitation-- sharing stories which lead to more (positive) feedback--and exploration-- sharing stories to learn about her followers' preferences. However, exploration is not necessary if a user utilizes the feedback her followers provide to other users in addition to the feedback she receives. Then, we develop a utility estimation framework for observation data, which relies on statistical hypothesis testing to determine whether a user utilizes the feedback she receives from each of her followers to decide what to post next. Experiments on synthetic data illustrate our theoretical findings and show that our estimation framework is able to accurately recover users' underlying utility functions. Experiments on several real datasets gathered from Twitter and Reddit reveal that up to 82% (43%) of the Twitter (Reddit) users in our datasets do use the feedback they receive to decide what to post next.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

NeVAE: A Deep Generative Model for Molecular Graphs

Deep generative models have been praised for their ability to learn smooth latent representation of images, text, and audio, which can then be used to generate new, plausible data. However, current generative models are unable to work with molecular graphs due to their unique characteristics-their underlying structure is not Euclidean or grid-like, they remain isomorphic under permutation of the nodes labels, and they come with a different number of nodes and edges. In this paper, we first propose a novel variational autoencoder for molecular graphs, whose encoder and decoder are specially designed to account for the above properties by means of several technical innovations. Moreover, in contrast with the state of the art, our decoder is able to provide the spatial coordinates of the atoms of the molecules it generates. Then, we develop a gradient-based algorithm to optimize the decoder of our model so that it learns to generate molecules that maximize the value of certain property of interest and, given a molecule of interest, it is able to optimize the spatial configuration of its atoms for greater stability. Experiments reveal that our variational autoencoder can discover plausible, diverse and novel molecules more effectively than several state of the art models. Moreover, for several properties of interest, our optimized decoder is able to identify molecules with property values 121% higher than those identified by several state of the art methods based on Bayesian optimization and reinforcement learning

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Consequential Ranking Algorithms and Long-term Welfare

Ranking models are typically designed to provide rankings that optimize some measure of immediate utility to the users. As a result, they have been unable to anticipate an increasing number of undesirable long-term consequences of their proposed rankings, from fueling the spread of misinformation and increasing polarization to degrading social discourse. Can we design ranking models that understand the consequences of their proposed rankings and, more importantly, are able to avoid the undesirable ones? In this paper, we first introduce a joint representation of rankings and user dynamics using Markov decision processes. Then, we show that this representation greatly simplifies the construction of consequential ranking models that trade off the immediate utility and the long-term welfare. In particular, we can obtain optimal consequential rankings just by applying weighted sampling on the rankings provided by models that maximize measures of immediate utility. However, in practice, such a strategy may be inefficient and impractical, specially in high dimensional scenarios. To overcome this, we introduce an efficient gradient-based algorithm to learn parameterized consequential ranking models that effectively approximate optimal ones. We showcase our methodology using synthetic and real data gathered from Reddit and show that ranking models derived using our methodology provide ranks that may mitigate the spread of misinformation and improve the civility of online discussions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

On the Complexity of Opinions and Online Discussions

In an increasingly polarized world, demagogues who reduce complexity down to simple arguments based on emotion are gaining in popularity. Are opinions and online discussions falling into demagoguery? In this work, we aim to provide computational tools to investigate this question and, by doing so, explore the nature and complexity of online discussions and their space of opinions, uncovering where each participant lies. More specifically, we present a modeling framework to construct latent representations of opinions in online discussions which are consistent with human judgements, as measured by online voting. If two opinions are close in the resulting latent space of opinions, it is because humans think they are similar. Our modeling framework is theoretically grounded and establishes a surprising connection between opinions and voting models and the sign-rank of a matrix. Moreover, it also provides a set of practical algorithms to both estimate the dimension of the latent space of opinions and infer where opinions expressed by the participants of an online discussion lie in this space. Experiments on a large dataset from Yahoo! News, Yahoo! Finance, Yahoo! Sports, and the Newsroom app suggest that unidimensional opinion models may often be unable to accurately represent online discussions, provide insights into human judgements and opinions, and show that our framework is able to circumvent language nuances such as sarcasm or humor by relying on human judgements instead of textual analysis.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Stochastic Optimal Control of Epidemic Processes in Networks

We approach the development of models and control strategies of susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic processes from the perspective of marked temporal point processes and stochastic optimal control of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with jumps. In contrast to previous work, this novel perspective is particularly well-suited to make use of fine-grained data about disease outbreaks and lets us overcome the shortcomings of current control strategies. Our control strategy resorts to treatment intensities to determine who to treat and when to do so to minimize the amount of infected individuals over time. Preliminary experiments with synthetic data show that our control strategy consistently outperforms several alternatives. Looking into the future, we believe our methodology provides a promising step towards the development of practical data-driven control strategies of epidemic processes.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Deep Reinforcement Learning of Marked Temporal Point Processes

In a wide variety of applications, humans interact with a complex environment by means of asynchronous stochastic discrete events in continuous time. Can we design online interventions that will help humans achieve certain goals in such asynchronous setting? In this paper, we address the above problem from the perspective of deep reinforcement learning of marked temporal point processes, where both the actions taken by an agent and the feedback it receives from the environment are asynchronous stochastic discrete events characterized using marked temporal point processes. In doing so, we define the agent's policy using the intensity and mark distribution of the corresponding process and then derive a flexible policy gradient method, which embeds the agent's actions and the feedback it receives into real-valued vectors using deep recurrent neural networks. Our method does not make any assumptions on the functional form of the intensity and mark distribution of the feedback and it allows for arbitrarily complex reward functions. We apply our methodology to two different applications in personalized teaching and viral marketing and, using data gathered from Duolingo and Twitter, we show that it may be able to find interventions to help learners and marketers achieve their goals more effectively than alternatives.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Optimizing Human Learning

Spaced repetition is a technique for efficient memorization which uses repeated, spaced review of content to improve long-term retention. Can we find the optimal reviewing schedule to maximize the benefits of spaced repetition? In this paper, we introduce a novel, flexible representation of spaced repetition using the framework of marked temporal point processes and then address the above question as an optimal control problem for stochastic differential equations with jumps. For two well-known human memory models, we show that the optimal reviewing schedule is given by the recall probability of the content to be learned. As a result, we can then develop a simple, scalable online algorithm, Memorize, to sample the optimal reviewing times. Experiments on both synthetic and real data gathered from Duolingo, a popular language-learning online platform, show that our algorithm may be able to help learners memorize more effectively than alternatives.

stat.ML↗