arXiv2021
The quest for high-redshift quasars has led to a series of record-breaking sources, with the current record holder at $z=7.642$. Here, we show how future detections of $z>8$ quasars impact the constraints on the parameters for black hole growth and seed models. Using broad flat priors on the growth parameters (Eddington ratio $\,f_{\rm Edd}$, duty cycle ${\cal D}$, seed mass $M_{\rm \bullet, seed}$ and radiative efficiency $ε$), we show that the large uncertainties in their determination decrease by a factor $\sim 5$ when a quasar's detection redshift goes from $z=9$ to $z=12$. In this high-redshift regime, $ε$ tends to the lowest value allowed, and the distribution for $M_{\rm \bullet, seed}$ peaks well inside the heavy seed domain. Remarkably, two quasars detected at $z > 7$ with low accretion rates (J1243+0100 and J0313-1806) already tighten the available parameter space, requiring $M_{\rm \bullet, seed} > 10^{3.5} \,{\rm M_\odot}$ and $ε< 0.1$. The radiative efficiency is a crucial unknown, with factor $\sim 2$ changes able to modify the predicted mass by $\sim 3$ orders of magnitude already at $z\sim 9$. The competing roles of inefficient accretion (decreasing $ε$) and black hole spin-up (increasing $ε$) significantly impact growth models. Finally, we suggest that yields currently predicted by upcoming quasar surveys (e.g., Euclid) will be instrumental for determining the most-likely seed mass regime. For example, assuming thin-disk accretion, a detection of a quasar with $M_\bullet \sim 10^{10} \,{\rm M_\odot}$ by $z\sim 9-10$ would exclude the entire parameter space available for light seeds and dramatically reduce the one for heavy seeds.