Abu Safyan Ali | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

How opinions shape epidemics: a graphon-based kinetic approach

Understanding the mutual influence between social behavior and physical health is crucial for designing effective epidemic mitigation strategies. Individual interactions drive the evolution of opinions, which in turn shape how infectious diseases are perceived and consequently how they spread within a population, for instance through the adoption or rejection of preventive measures. At the same time, the distribution and dynamics of physical contacts play a fundamental role in determining transmission patterns. To this end, we develop a mathematical framework to analyze the coupled dynamics of opinion formation, disease transmission, and physical contacts by employing graphon-based networks, which capture heterogeneous and large-scale connectivity patterns typical of realistic social structures. The epidemic compartmental model further incorporates a kinetic description of microscopic level physical contacts, allowing for a consistent multiscale representation of interaction patterns. Starting from a microscopic description governed by interpersonal compromise and intrinsic self-thinking processes, we derive a kinetic compartmental epidemic model on graphons via a mean-field limit. This formulation allows us to investigate the joint evolution of the disease state and the opinion distribution, with a particular focus on the role of social networks and physical contacts. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the graphon-kinetic approach provides a comprehensive representation of the coupled opinion-epidemic dynamics, revealing new possibilities for controlling disease spread by shaping population opinion patterns.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

A data augmentation strategy for deep neural networks with application to epidemic modelling

In this work, we integrate the predictive capabilities of compartmental disease dynamics models with machine learning ability to analyze complex, high-dimensional data and uncover patterns that conventional models may overlook. Specifically, we present a proof of concept demonstrating the application of data-driven methods and deep neural networks to a recently introduced Susceptible-Infected-Recovered type model with social features, including a saturated incidence rate, to improve epidemic prediction and forecasting. Our results show that a robust data augmentation strategy trough suitable data-driven models can improve the reliability of Feed-Forward Neural Networks and Nonlinear Autoregressive Networks, providing a complementary strategy to Physics-Informed Neural Networks, particularly in settings where data augmentation from mechanistic models can enhance learning. This approach enhances the ability to handle nonlinear dynamics and offers scalable, data-driven solutions for epidemic forecasting, prioritizing predictive accuracy over the constraints of physics-based models. Numerical simulations of the lockdown and post-lockdown phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy and Spain validate our methodology.

math.NA↗