Achref Doula | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Conformal Calibration Transfer

Conformal prediction converts point predictions into set-valued predictions with coverage guarantees under exchangeability between calibration and deployment data. We study conformal calibration transfer, where this requirement fails because labeled calibration is available only in a source space, while prediction sets are needed in a target space linked to the source through unlabeled paired observations (e.g., paired modalities or sensor changes). We propose Transported Conformal Calibration (TCC): we transport labeled source calibration into the target space using the paired data, and then correct residual post-transport mismatch using only unlabeled target inputs. We instantiate this correction with two complementary methods: TCC-KS, which uses a label-free uncertainty surrogate to detect mismatch and adjust calibration conservatively, and weighted-TCC, which reweights transported calibration toward the target domain for improved efficiency when weights are stable. We provide finite-sample target-domain coverage guarantees that adapt to an observable measure of mismatch. Across CIFAR-100-C, Tiny-ImageNet-C, and SEN12MS, we show reliable target-domain coverage transfer without labeled target calibration data, with label-free diagnostics that predict when correction is needed.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

SafePath: Conformal Prediction for Safe LLM-Based Autonomous Navigation

Large Language Models (LLMs) show growing promise in autonomous driving by reasoning over complex traffic scenarios to generate path plans. However, their tendencies toward overconfidence, and hallucinations raise critical safety concerns. We introduce SafePath, a modular framework that augments LLM-based path planning with formal safety guarantees using conformal prediction. SafePath operates in three stages. In the first stage, we use an LLM that generates a set of diverse candidate paths, exploring possible trajectories based on agent behaviors and environmental cues. In the second stage, SafePath filters out high-risk trajectories while guaranteeing that at least one safe option is included with a user-defined probability, through a multiple-choice question-answering formulation that integrates conformal prediction. In the final stage, our approach selects the path with the lowest expected collision risk when uncertainty is low or delegates control to a human when uncertainty is high. We theoretically prove that SafePath guarantees a safe trajectory with a user-defined probability, and we show how its human delegation rate can be tuned to balance autonomy and safety. Extensive experiments on nuScenes and Highway-env show that SafePath reduces planning uncertainty by 77\% and collision rates by up to 70\%, demonstrating effectiveness in making LLM-driven path planning more safer.

cs.LG↗