arXiv subjects

Ad J. Feelders

Publications and source records attributed to Ad J. Feelders.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Using Chao's Estimator as a Stopping Criterion for Technology-Assisted Review

Technology-Assisted Review (TAR) aims to reduce the human effort required for screening processes such as abstract screening for systematic literature reviews. Human reviewers label documents as relevant or irrelevant during this process, while the system incrementally updates a prediction model based on the reviewers' previous decisions. After each model update, the system proposes new documents it deems relevant, to prioritize relevant documentsover irrelevant ones. A stopping criterion is necessary to guide users in stopping the review process to minimize the number of missed relevant documents and the number of read irrelevant documents. In this paper, we propose and evaluate a new ensemble-based Active Learning strategy and a stopping criterion based on Chao's Population Size Estimator that estimates the prevalence of relevant documents in the dataset. Our simulation study demonstrates that this criterion performs well on several datasets and is compared to other methods presented in the literature.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2024

The Climatological Renewable Energy Deviation Index (CREDI)

We propose an index to quantify and analyse the impact of climatological variability on the energy system at different timescales. We define the Climatological Renewable Energy Deviation Index (CREDI) as the cumulative anomaly of a renewable resource with respect to its climate over a specific time period of interest. For this we introduce the smooth, yet physical, hourly rolling window climatology that captures the expected hourly to yearly behaviour of renewable resources. We analyse the presented index at decadal, annual and (sub-)seasonal timescales for a sample region and discuss scientific and practical implications. CREDI is meant as an analytical tool for researchers and stakeholders to help them quantify, understand, and explain, the impact of energy-meteorological variability on future energy system. Improved understanding translates to better assessments of how renewable resources, and the associated risks for energy security, may fare in current and future climatological settings. The practical use of the index is in resource planning. For example transmission system operators may be able to adjust short-term planning to reduce adequacy issues before they occur or combine the index with storyline event selection for improved assessments of climate change related risks.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Detection of Critical Events in Renewable Energy Production Time Series

The introduction of more renewable energy sources into the energy system increases the variability and weather dependence of electricity generation. Power system simulations are used to assess the adequacy and reliability of the electricity grid over decades, but often become computational intractable for such long simulation periods with high technical detail. To alleviate this computational burden, we investigate the use of outlier detection algorithms to find periods of extreme renewable energy generation which enables detailed modelling of the performance of power systems under these circumstances. Specifically, we apply the Maximum Divergent Intervals (MDI) algorithm to power generation time series that have been derived from ERA5 historical climate reanalysis covering the period from 1950 through 2019. By applying the MDI algorithm on these time series, we identified intervals of extreme low and high energy production. To determine the outlierness of an interval different divergence measures can be used. Where the cross-entropy measure results in shorter and strongly peaking outliers, the unbiased Kullback-Leibler divergence tends to detect longer and more persistent intervals. These intervals are regarded as potential risks for the electricity grid by domain experts, showcasing the capability of the MDI algorithm to detect critical events in these time series. For the historical period analysed, we found no trend in outlier intensity, or shift and lengthening of the outliers that could be attributed to climate change. By applying MDI on climate model output, power system modellers can investigate the adequacy and possible changes of risk for the current and future electricity grid under a wider range of scenarios.

physics.soc-ph↗