arXiv subjects

Adam Fisch

Publications and source records attributed to Adam Fisch.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Pandora's AI Model Routing Box: Efficient Allocation with Costly Value Estimation

Heterogeneous AI systems composed of multiple models, architectures, harnesses, or inference-time settings can improve quality and efficiency by routing queries to the specialist who can answer most effectively at the lowest cost. Routing requires estimating each specialist's expected return, but this value estimation has a cost. Cheap estimators (e.g., embedding-based predictors) are fast but noisy, while accurate estimators (e.g., fine-tuned models with access to retrieval results or partial reasoning traces) are expensive. We formalize this tradeoff as an instance of Pandora's Box, the classical problem of optimal search with costly inspection. Under a Gaussian signal model, the resulting policies have closed-form value-of-information expressions that determine, for each specialist and input, whether refining the value estimate is worth its cost. We call the centralized policy Pandora's Router. We extend this to a decentralized setting, Pandora's Bidder, where specialists independently decide whether to invest in self-assessment before accepting an offered price to claim a query. Experiments across three domains---a standard multi-LLM benchmark, retrieval-augmented specialists, and LLMs with variable inference-time reasoning---show that Pandora's Router matches the routing quality of exhaustive estimation, while querying the expensive estimator far less often. In the decentralized setting, value-of-information reasoning improves allocative efficiency when competing estimates are accurate; when competing estimates are noisy, however, it can increase the strategic specialist's utility at the expense of others.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

CollabEval: Statistically Efficient Collaborative Model Evaluation via Matrix Completion

Evaluating generative AI models is a routine, but resource-intensive, process that is conducted over and over again during the course of model development. In this work, we propose Collaborative Evaluation (CollabEval), a simple, effective, and principled method for exploiting dependencies between historical runs of different models on the same tasks to improve statistical efficiency. Specifically, our approach treats model evaluation as a matrix completion problem over an $M \times N$ matrix of evaluation scores, where $M$ is the total number of models and $N$ is the total number of evaluation prompts. We assume that a subset of these $M$ models are targeted for evaluation. For these target models only a small fraction, $p$, of prompts has been annotated with evaluation scores. Leveraging recent results in prediction-powered inference, we build a low-rank approximation of the score matrix, and use the reconstructed values as control variates in a manner that guarantees unbiased estimates of the true evaluation metric mean, in addition to statistically valid confidence intervals. Empirically, across a wide range of datasets, models, and sparsity levels $p$, we find that CollabEval substantially reduces the mean confidence interval size, and the mean squared error of the point estimate, compared to baseline methods at the same annotation budget.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference

Statistical estimation often involves tradeoffs between expensive, high-quality measurements and a variety of lower-quality proxies. We introduce Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference (MultiPPI): a general framework for constructing statistically efficient estimates by optimally allocating resources across these diverse data sources. This work provides theoretical guarantees about the minimax optimality, finite-sample performance, and asymptotic normality of the MultiPPI estimator. Through experiments across three diverse large language model (LLM) evaluation scenarios, we show that MultiPPI consistently achieves lower estimation error than existing baselines. This advantage stems from its budget-adaptive allocation strategy, which strategically combines subsets of models by learning their complex cost and correlation structures.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Robust LLM Performance Certification via Constrained Maximum Likelihood Estimation

The ability to rigorously estimate the failure rates of large language models (LLMs) is a prerequisite for their safe deployment. Currently, however, practitioners often face a tradeoff between expensive human gold standards and potentially severely-biased automatic annotation schemes such as "LLM-as-a-Judge" labeling. In this paper, we propose a new, practical, and efficient approach to LLM failure rate estimation based on constrained maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE). Our method integrates three distinct signal sources: (i) a small, high-quality human-labeled calibration set, (ii) a large corpus of LLM-judge annotations, and, most importantly, (iii) additional side information via domain-specific constraints derived from known bounds on judge performance statistics. We validate our approach through a comprehensive empirical study, benchmarking it against state-of-the-art baselines like Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI). Across diverse experimental regimes -- spanning varying judge accuracies, calibration set sizes, and LLM failure rates -- our constrained MLE consistently delivers more accurate and lower-variance estimates than existing methods. By moving beyond the "black-box" use of automated judges to a flexible framework, we provide a principled, interpretable, and scalable pathway towards LLM failure-rate certification.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Rich Insights from Cheap Signals: Efficient Evaluations via Tensor Factorization

Moving beyond evaluations that collapse performance across heterogeneous prompts toward fine-grained evaluation at the prompt level, or within relatively homogeneous subsets, is necessary to diagnose generative models' strengths and weaknesses. Such fine-grained evaluations, however, suffer from a data bottleneck: human gold-standard labels are too costly at this scale, while automated ratings are often misaligned with human judgment. To resolve this challenge, we propose a novel statistical model based on tensor factorization that merges cheap autorater data with a limited set of human gold-standard labels. Specifically, our approach uses autorater scores to pretrain latent representations of prompts and generative models, and then aligns those pretrained representations to human preferences using a small calibration set. This sample-efficient methodology is robust to autorater quality, more accurately predicts human preferences on a per-prompt basis than standard baselines, and provides tight confidence intervals for key statistical parameters of interest. We also showcase the practical utility of our method by constructing granular leaderboards based on prompt qualities and by estimating model performance solely from autorater scores, eliminating the need for additional human annotations.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

MT-PingEval: Evaluating Multi-Turn Collaboration with Private Information Games

We present a scalable and verifiable methodology for evaluating language models in multi-turn interactions, using a suite of collaborative games that require effective communication about private information. This enables an interactive scaling analysis, in which a fixed token budget is divided over a variable number of turns. We find that language models often fail to use interactive collaboration to improve over the non-interactive baseline in which one agent summarizes its information and the other agent immediately acts, despite substantial headroom. This suggests that state-of-the-art models still suffer from significant weaknesses in planning and executing multi-turn collaborative conversations. We analyze the linguistic features of these dialogues, assessing the roles of sycophancy, information density, and discourse coherence. While there is no single linguistic explanation for the collaborative weaknesses of contemporary language models, we note that humans achieve comparable task success at superior token efficiency by producing more coherent dialogues. The proactive management of private information is a defining feature of real-world communication, and this work is designed to drive further progress on this capability.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Learning Steerable Clarification Policies with Collaborative Self-play

To handle underspecified or ambiguous queries, AI assistants need a policy for managing their uncertainty to determine (a) when to guess the user intent and answer directly, (b) when to enumerate and answer multiple possible intents, and (c) when to ask a clarifying question. However, such policies are contextually dependent on factors such as user preferences or modality. For example, enumerating multiple possible user intentions is cumbersome on small screens or in a voice setting. In this work, we propose to train steerable policies for managing this uncertainty using self-play. Given two agents, one simulating a user and the other an AI assistant, we generate conversations where the user issues a potentially ambiguous query, and the assistant needs to determine how to respond. Importantly, the model takes as input the numerical cost of each clarification question, and each generated word, and is asked to take the action that will maximize its final reward, which is the cost-penalized accuracy. We use Reinforced Self-Training (ReST) to train our model to achieve high reward and show this leads to a steerable policy that changes its behavior predictably conditioned on the provided costs, leading to higher reward and accuracy. Moreover, our procedure also generalizes to numerical cost values that were unobserved at training time.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Plantain: Plan-Answer Interleaved Reasoning

Reasoning models often spend a significant amount of time thinking before they generate a visible response. In the meantime, they do not give the user any hints as to whether their reasoning is on the right track, and do not give the user any recourse to stop and correct them if their reasoning is flawed. This creates a frustrating, but unfortunately common, experience: the user's time is wasted while the model reasons from a false premise that could have easily been corrected. In contrast, human speakers typically perform lightweight, incremental grounding acts to ensure that participants in the conversation are on the same page; here we ask if language models can learn to leverage a similar type of behavior? With this motivation, we propose interleaved reasoning (IR), in which the model alternates between thinking and surfacing intermediate responses, as an alternative to the standard "think-then-answer" approach. By providing useful information to the user earlier, IR reduces perceived latency, the time a user waits for an initial output, without compromising the quality of the final response. We further introduce a specialization of interleaved reasoning, Plantain (Plan-Thought-Answer Interleaving), where the first intermediate response is an explicit, step-by-step plan for executing the task. This plan-first strategy allows for user intervention and early feedback for subsequent reasoning steps. We demonstrate that Plantain yields an ~6% improvement in pass@1 across several challenging math reasoning and coding benchmarks, while reducing time-to-first-response by over 60% relative to think-then-answer baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Mixture-of-Recursions: Learning Dynamic Recursive Depths for Adaptive Token-Level Computation

Scaling language models unlocks impressive capabilities, but the accompanying computational and memory demands make both training and deployment expensive. Existing efficiency efforts typically target either parameter sharing or adaptive computation, leaving open the question of how to attain both simultaneously. We introduce Mixture-of-Recursions (MoR), a unified framework that combines the two axes of efficiency inside a single Recursive Transformer. MoR reuses a shared stack of layers across recursion steps to achieve parameter efficiency, while lightweight routers enable adaptive token-level thinking by dynamically assigning different recursion depths to individual tokens. This allows MoR to focus quadratic attention computation only among tokens still active at a given recursion depth, further improving memory access efficiency by selectively caching only their key-value pairs. Beyond these core mechanisms, we also propose a KV sharing variant that reuses KV pairs from the first recursion, specifically designed to further decrease memory footprint. Across model scales ranging from 135M to 1.7B parameters, MoR forms a new Pareto frontier: at equal training FLOPs and smaller model sizes, it significantly lowers validation perplexity and improves few-shot accuracy, while delivering higher throughput compared with vanilla and existing recursive baselines. These gains demonstrate that MoR is an effective path towards large-model quality without incurring large-model cost.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Cost-Optimal Active AI Model Evaluation

The development lifecycle of generative AI systems requires continual evaluation, data acquisition, and annotation, which is costly in both resources and time. In practice, rapid iteration often makes it necessary to rely on synthetic annotation data because of the low cost, despite the potential for substantial bias. In this paper, we develop novel, cost-aware methods for actively balancing the use of a cheap, but often inaccurate, weak rater -- such as a model-based autorater that is designed to automatically assess the quality of generated content -- with a more expensive, but also more accurate, strong rater alternative such as a human. More specifically, the goal of our approach is to produce a low variance, unbiased estimate of the mean of the target "strong" rating, subject to some total annotation budget. Building on recent work in active and prediction-powered statistical inference, we derive a family of cost-optimal policies for allocating a given annotation budget between weak and strong raters so as to maximize statistical efficiency. Using synthetic and real-world data, we empirically characterize the conditions under which these policies yield improvements over prior methods. We find that, especially in tasks where there is high variability in the difficulty of examples, our policies can achieve the same estimation precision at a far lower total annotation budget than standard evaluation methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Don't lie to your friends: Learning what you know from collaborative self-play

To be helpful assistants, AI agents must be aware of their own capabilities and limitations. This includes knowing when to answer from parametric knowledge versus using tools, when to trust tool outputs, and when to abstain or hedge. Such capabilities are hard to teach through supervised fine-tuning because they require constructing examples that reflect the agent's specific capabilities. We therefore propose a radically new approach to teaching agents what they know: \emph{collaborative self-play}. We construct multi-agent collaborations in which the group is rewarded for collectively arriving at correct answers. The desired meta-knowledge emerges from the incentives built into the structure of the interaction. We focus on small societies of agents that have access to heterogeneous tools (corpus-specific retrieval), and therefore must collaborate to maximize their success while minimizing their effort. Experiments show that group-level rewards for multi-agent communities can induce policies that \emph{transfer} to improve tool use and selective prediction in settings where individual agents are deployed in isolation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Mitigating Preference Hacking in Policy Optimization with Pessimism

This work tackles the problem of overoptimization in reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), a prevalent technique for aligning models with human preferences. RLHF relies on reward or preference models trained on \emph{fixed preference datasets}, and these models are unreliable when evaluated outside the support of this preference data, leading to the common reward or preference hacking phenomenon. We propose novel, pessimistic objectives for RLHF which are provably robust to overoptimization through the use of pessimism in the face of uncertainty, and design practical algorithms, P3O and PRPO, to optimize these objectives. Our approach is derived for the general preference optimization setting, but can be used with reward models as well. We evaluate P3O and PRPO on the tasks of fine-tuning language models for document summarization and creating helpful assistants, demonstrating remarkable resilience to overoptimization.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Relaxed Recursive Transformers: Effective Parameter Sharing with Layer-wise LoRA

Large language models (LLMs) are expensive to deploy. Parameter sharing offers a possible path towards reducing their size and cost, but its effectiveness in modern LLMs remains fairly limited. In this work, we revisit "layer tying" as form of parameter sharing in Transformers, and introduce novel methods for converting existing LLMs into smaller "Recursive Transformers" that share parameters across layers, with minimal loss of performance. Here, our Recursive Transformers are efficiently initialized from standard pretrained Transformers, but only use a single block of unique layers that is then repeated multiple times in a loop. We further improve performance by introducing Relaxed Recursive Transformers that add flexibility to the layer tying constraint via depth-wise low-rank adaptation (LoRA) modules, yet still preserve the compactness of the overall model. We show that our recursive models (e.g., recursive Gemma 1B) outperform both similar-sized vanilla pretrained models (such as TinyLlama 1.1B and Pythia 1B) and knowledge distillation baselines -- and can even recover most of the performance of the original "full-size" model (e.g., Gemma 2B with no shared parameters). Finally, we propose Continuous Depth-wise Batching, a promising new inference paradigm enabled by the Recursive Transformer when paired with early exiting. In a theoretical analysis, we show that this has the potential to lead to significant (2-3x) gains in inference throughput.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Rewarding Progress: Scaling Automated Process Verifiers for LLM Reasoning

A promising approach for improving reasoning in large language models is to use process reward models (PRMs). PRMs provide feedback at each step of a multi-step reasoning trace, potentially improving credit assignment over outcome reward models (ORMs) that only provide feedback at the final step. However, collecting dense, per-step human labels is not scalable, and training PRMs from automatically-labeled data has thus far led to limited gains. To improve a base policy by running search against a PRM or using it as dense rewards for reinforcement learning (RL), we ask: "How should we design process rewards?". Our key insight is that, to be effective, the process reward for a step should measure progress: a change in the likelihood of producing a correct response in the future, before and after taking the step, corresponding to the notion of step-level advantages in RL. Crucially, this progress should be measured under a prover policy distinct from the base policy. We theoretically characterize the set of good provers and our results show that optimizing process rewards from such provers improves exploration during test-time search and online RL. In fact, our characterization shows that weak prover policies can substantially improve a stronger base policy, which we also observe empirically. We validate our claims by training process advantage verifiers (PAVs) to predict progress under such provers, and show that compared to ORMs, test-time search against PAVs is $>8\%$ more accurate, and $1.5-5\times$ more compute-efficient. Online RL with dense rewards from PAVs enables one of the first results with $5-6\times$ gain in sample efficiency, and $>6\%$ gain in accuracy, over ORMs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Stratified Prediction-Powered Inference for Hybrid Language Model Evaluation

Prediction-powered inference (PPI) is a method that improves statistical estimates based on limited human-labeled data. PPI achieves this by combining small amounts of human-labeled data with larger amounts of data labeled by a reasonably accurate -- but potentially biased -- automatic system, in a way that results in tighter confidence intervals for certain parameters of interest (e.g., the mean performance of a language model). In this paper, we propose a method called Stratified Prediction-Powered Inference (StratPPI), in which we show that the basic PPI estimates can be considerably improved by employing simple data stratification strategies. Without making any assumptions on the underlying automatic labeling system or data distribution, we derive an algorithm for computing provably valid confidence intervals for population parameters (such as averages) that is based on stratified sampling. In particular, we show both theoretically and empirically that, with appropriate choices of stratification and sample allocation, our approach can provide substantially tighter confidence intervals than unstratified approaches. Specifically, StratPPI is expected to improve in cases where the performance of the autorater varies across different conditional distributions of the target data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Block Transformer: Global-to-Local Language Modeling for Fast Inference

We introduce the Block Transformer which adopts hierarchical global-to-local modeling to autoregressive transformers to mitigate the inference bottlenecks associated with self-attention. Self-attention requires the key-value (KV) cache of all previous sequences to be retrieved from memory at every decoding step to retrieve context information, leading to two primary bottlenecks during batch inference. First, there is a significant delay in obtaining the first token, as the information of the entire prompt must first be processed to prefill the KV cache. Second, computation of subsequent tokens is bottlenecked by the high memory I/O demand of fetching the entire KV cache, which grows linearly with sequence length, incurring quadratic memory reads overall. We design the Block Transformer to strategically mitigate these costs, by incorporating coarsity and locality into an integrated global-to-local architecture. At the lower layers, we aggregate tokens into fixed size blocks to apply attention across the entire sequence at coarse-grained detail, to capture the global context while minimizing KV cache overhead. At upper layers, we apply attention within each block to decode individual tokens, to model fine-grained details with a lightweight local KV cache. We pretrain vanilla and Block Transformers from scratch and demonstrate that Block Transformers reach 10--20x inference throughput compared to vanilla transformers with equivalent perplexity and zero-shot task performance. Code is available at https://github.com/itsnamgyu/block-transformer.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Robust Preference Optimization through Reward Model Distillation

Language model (LM) post-training (or alignment) involves maximizing a reward function that is derived from preference annotations. Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) is a popular offline alignment method that trains a policy directly on preference data without the need to train a reward model or apply reinforcement learning. However, the empirical evidence suggests that DPO typically assigns implicit rewards that overfit, and trend towards infinite magnitude. This frequently leads to degenerate policies, sometimes causing even the probabilities of the preferred generations to go to zero. In this work, we analyze this phenomenon and use distillation to get a better proxy for the true preference distribution over generation pairs: we train the LM such that its induced implicit reward, i.e., the scaled log-likelihood ratio of the model to the reference model, matches an explicit reward model trained on the preference data. Moreover, to account for uncertainty in the reward model we are distilling from, we optimize against a family of reward models that, as a whole, is likely to include at least one reasonable proxy for the preference distribution. Our results show that distilling from such a family of reward models leads to improved robustness to distribution shift in preference annotations, while preserving the simple supervised nature of DPO.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Bayesian Prediction-Powered Inference

Prediction-powered inference (PPI) is a method that improves statistical estimates based on limited human-labeled data. Specifically, PPI methods provide tighter confidence intervals by combining small amounts of human-labeled data with larger amounts of data labeled by a reasonably accurate, but potentially biased, automatic system. We propose a framework for PPI based on Bayesian inference that allows researchers to develop new task-appropriate PPI methods easily. Exploiting the ease with which we can design new metrics, we propose improved PPI methods for several importantcases, such as autoraters that give discrete responses (e.g., prompted LLM ``judges'') and autoraters with scores that have a non-linear relationship to human scores.

cs.LG↗