arXiv subjects

Adam M. Sykulski

Publications and source records attributed to Adam M. Sykulski.

27 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Smoothing and Interpolating Noisy GPS Data with Smoothing Splines

A comprehensive methodology is provided for smoothing noisy, irregularly sampled data with non-Gaussian noise using smoothing splines. We demonstrate how the spline order and tension parameter can be chosen a priori from physical reasoning. We also show how to allow for non-Gaussian noise and outliers which are typical in GPS signals. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods on GPS trajectory data obtained from oceanographic floating instruments known as drifters.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

The De-Biased Whittle Likelihood

The Whittle likelihood is a widely used and computationally efficient pseudo-likelihood. However, it is known to produce biased parameter estimates for large classes of models. We propose a method for de-biasing Whittle estimates for second-order stationary stochastic processes. The de-biased Whittle likelihood can be computed in the same $\mathcal{O}(n\log n)$ operations as the standard approach. We demonstrate the superior performance of the method in simulation studies and in application to a large-scale oceanographic dataset, where in both cases the de-biased approach reduces bias by up to two orders of magnitude, achieving estimates that are close to exact maximum likelihood, at a fraction of the computational cost. We prove that the method yields estimates that are consistent at an optimal convergence rate of $n^{-1/2}$, under weaker assumptions than standard theory, where we do not require that the power spectral density is continuous in frequency. We describe how the method can be easily combined with standard methods of bias reduction, such as tapering and differencing, to further reduce bias in parameter estimates.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Frequency-Domain Stochastic Modeling of Stationary Bivariate or Complex-Valued Signals

There are three equivalent ways of representing two jointly observed real-valued signals: as a bivariate vector signal, as a single complex-valued signal, or as two analytic signals known as the rotary components. Each representation has unique advantages depending on the system of interest and the application goals. In this paper we provide a joint framework for all three representations in the context of frequency-domain stochastic modeling. This framework allows us to extend many established statistical procedures for bivariate vector time series to complex-valued and rotary representations. These include procedures for parametrically modeling signal coherence, estimating model parameters using the Whittle likelihood, performing semi-parametric modeling, and choosing between classes of nested models using model choice. We also provide a new method of testing for impropriety in complex-valued signals, which tests for noncircular or anisotropic second-order statistical structure when the signal is represented in the complex plane. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our methodology in capturing the anisotropic structure of signals observed from fluid dynamic simulations of turbulence.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Exact Simulation of Noncircular or Improper Complex-Valued Stationary Gaussian Processes using Circulant Embedding

This paper provides an algorithm for simulating improper (or noncircular) complex-valued stationary Gaussian processes. The technique utilizes recently developed methods for multivariate Gaussian processes from the circulant embedding literature. The method can be performed in $\mathcal{O}(n\log_2 n)$ operations, where $n$ is the length of the desired sequence. The method is exact, except when eigenvalues of prescribed circulant matrices are negative. We evaluate the performance of the algorithm empirically, and provide a practical example where the method is guaranteed to be exact for all $n$, with an improper fractional Gaussian noise process.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

A Widely Linear Complex Autoregressive Process of Order One

We propose a simple stochastic process for modeling improper or noncircular complex-valued signals. The process is a natural extension of a complex-valued autoregressive process, extended to include a widely linear autoregressive term. This process can then capture elliptical, as opposed to circular, stochastic oscillations in a bivariate signal. The process is order one and is more parsimonious than alternative stochastic modeling approaches in the literature. We provide conditions for stationarity, and derive the form of the covariance and relation sequence of this model. We describe how parameter estimation can be efficiently performed both in the time and frequency domain. We demonstrate the practical utility of the process in capturing elliptical oscillations that are naturally present in seismic signals.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Analysis of nonstationary modulated time series with applications to oceanographic flow measurements

We propose a new class of univariate nonstationary time series models, using the framework of modulated time series, which is appropriate for the analysis of rapidly-evolving time series as well as time series observations with missing data. We extend our techniques to a class of bivariate time series that are isotropic. Exact inference is often not computationally viable for time series analysis, and so we propose an estimation method based on the Whittle-likelihood, a commonly adopted pseudo-likelihood. Our inference procedure is shown to be consistent under standard assumptions, as well as having considerably lower computational cost than exact likelihood in general. We show the utility of this framework for the analysis of drifting instruments, an analysis that is key to characterising global ocean circulation and therefore also for decadal to century-scale climate understanding.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2015

A Power Variance Test for Nonstationarity in Complex-Valued Signals

We propose a novel algorithm for testing the hypothesis of nonstationarity in complex-valued signals. The implementation uses both the bootstrap and the Fast Fourier Transform such that the algorithm can be efficiently implemented in O(NlogN) time, where N is the length of the observed signal. The test procedure examines the second-order structure and contrasts the observed power variance - i.e. the variability of the instantaneous variance over time - with the expected characteristics of stationary signals generated via the bootstrap method. Our algorithmic procedure is capable of learning different types of nonstationarity, such as jumps or strong sinusoidal components. We illustrate the utility of our test and algorithm through application to turbulent flow data from fluid dynamics.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2015

Lagrangian Time Series Models for Ocean Surface Drifter Trajectories

This paper proposes stochastic models for the analysis of ocean surface trajectories obtained from freely-drifting satellite-tracked instruments. The proposed time series models are used to summarise large multivariate datasets and infer important physical parameters of inertial oscillations and other ocean processes. Nonstationary time series methods are employed to account for the spatiotemporal variability of each trajectory. Because the datasets are large, we construct computationally efficient methods through the use of frequency-domain modelling and estimation, with the data expressed as complex-valued time series. We detail how practical issues related to sampling and model misspecification may be addressed using semi-parametric techniques for time series, and we demonstrate the effectiveness of our stochastic models through application to both real-world data and to numerical model output.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2012

Automated Planning in Repeated Adversarial Games

Game theory's prescriptive power typically relies on full rationality and/or self-play interactions. In contrast, this work sets aside these fundamental premises and focuses instead on heterogeneous autonomous interactions between two or more agents. Specifically, we introduce a new and concise representation for repeated adversarial (constant-sum) games that highlight the necessary features that enable an automated planing agent to reason about how to score above the game's Nash equilibrium, when facing heterogeneous adversaries. To this end, we present TeamUP, a model-based RL algorithm designed for learning and planning such an abstraction. In essence, it is somewhat similar to R-max with a cleverly engineered reward shaping that treats exploration as an adversarial optimization problem. In practice, it attempts to find an ally with which to tacitly collude (in more than two-player games) and then collaborates on a joint plan of actions that can consistently score a high utility in adversarial repeated games. We use the inaugural Lemonade Stand Game Tournament to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, and find that TeamUP is the best performing agent, demoting the Tournament's actual winning strategy into second place. In our experimental analysis, we show hat our strategy successfully and consistently builds collaborations with many different heterogeneous (and sometimes very sophisticated) adversaries.

cs.GT↗