arXiv subjects

Adam N. Elmachtoub

Publications and source records attributed to Adam N. Elmachtoub.

22 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Decision Trees for Decision-Making under the Predict-then-Optimize Framework

We consider the use of decision trees for decision-making problems under the predict-then-optimize framework. That is, we would like to first use a decision tree to predict unknown input parameters of an optimization problem, and then make decisions by solving the optimization problem using the predicted parameters. A natural loss function in this framework is to measure the suboptimality of the decisions induced by the predicted input parameters, as opposed to measuring loss using input parameter prediction error. This natural loss function is known in the literature as the Smart Predict-then-Optimize (SPO) loss, and we propose a tractable methodology called SPO Trees (SPOTs) for training decision trees under this loss. SPOTs benefit from the interpretability of decision trees, providing an interpretable segmentation of contextual features into groups with distinct optimal solutions to the optimization problem of interest. We conduct several numerical experiments on synthetic and real data including the prediction of travel times for shortest path problems and predicting click probabilities for news article recommendation. We demonstrate on these datasets that SPOTs simultaneously provide higher quality decisions and significantly lower model complexity than other machine learning approaches (e.g., CART) trained to minimize prediction error.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Static Pricing: Universal Guarantees for Reusable Resources

We consider a fundamental pricing model in which a fixed number of units of a reusable resource are used to serve customers. Customers arrive to the system according to a stochastic process and upon arrival decide whether or not to purchase the service, depending on their willingness-to-pay and the current price. The service time during which the resource is used by the customer is stochastic and the firm may incur a service cost. This model represents various markets for reusable resources such as cloud computing, shared vehicles, rotable parts, and hotel rooms. In the present paper, we analyze this pricing problem when the firm attempts to maximize a weighted combination of three central metrics: profit, market share, and service level. Under Poisson arrivals, exponential service times, and standard assumptions on the willingness-to-pay distribution, we establish a series of results that characterize the performance of static pricing in such environments. In particular, while an optimal policy is fully dynamic in such a context, we prove that a static pricing policy simultaneously guarantees 78.9% of the profit, market share, and service level from the optimal policy. Notably, this result holds for any service rate and number of units the firm operates. Our proof technique relies on a judicious construction of a static price that is derived directly from the optimal dynamic pricing policy. In the special case where there are two units and the induced demand is linear, we also prove that the static policy guarantees 95.5% of the profit from the optimal policy. Our numerical findings on a large testbed of instances suggest that the latter result is quite indicative of the profit obtained by the static pricing policy across all parameters.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2018

A Practical Method for Solving Contextual Bandit Problems Using Decision Trees

Many efficient algorithms with strong theoretical guarantees have been proposed for the contextual multi-armed bandit problem. However, applying these algorithms in practice can be difficult because they require domain expertise to build appropriate features and to tune their parameters. We propose a new method for the contextual bandit problem that is simple, practical, and can be applied with little or no domain expertise. Our algorithm relies on decision trees to model the context-reward relationship. Decision trees are non-parametric, interpretable, and work well without hand-crafted features. To guide the exploration-exploitation trade-off, we use a bootstrapping approach which abstracts Thompson sampling to non-Bayesian settings. We also discuss several computational heuristics and demonstrate the performance of our method on several datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2012

Maximizing the Spread of Cascades Using Network Design

We introduce a new optimization framework to maximize the expected spread of cascades in networks. Our model allows a rich set of actions that directly manipulate cascade dynamics by adding nodes or edges to the network. Our motivating application is one in spatial conservation planning, where a cascade models the dispersal of wild animals through a fragmented landscape. We propose a mixed integer programming (MIP) formulation that combines elements from network design and stochastic optimization. Our approach results in solutions with stochastic optimality guarantees and points to conservation strategies that are fundamentally different from naive approaches.

cs.SI↗