Density and sea level changes weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation through ocean bottom pressure
Observations from the RAPID array at 26.5$^\circ$N indicate a linear decline in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) over the past two decades, linked to contrasting boundary changes: a weakening western-boundary contribution that is partly compensated by strengthening at the eastern boundary. Yet it remains unclear whether this partial compensation reflects a basin-wide adjustment or a regional feature, and what processes drive it. Here we use a high-resolution ocean model to investigate the spatial structure and underlying mechanisms of the AMOC change across the mid-latitude North Atlantic. The model reproduces a meridionally coherent decline in western-boundary deep overturning transport together with a partially compensating strengthening at the eastern boundary, consistent with observations at 26.5$^\circ$N. These opposing trends arise from a vertically coherent ocean bottom pressure trend shaped by two competing drivers: rising coastal sea level and decreasing interior density. Through geostrophic balance, this mechanism produces partial boundary compensation across latitudes, yielding a basin-wide AMOC decline throughout the mid-latitude North Atlantic.