arXiv subjects

Adeel Razi

Publications and source records attributed to Adeel Razi.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Minimum-phase property of the hemodynamic response function, and implications for Granger Causality in fMRI

Granger Causality (GC) is widely used in neuroimaging to estimate directed statistical dependence among brain regions using time series of brain activity. An important issue is that functional MRI (fMRI) measures brain activity indirectly via the blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal, which affects the temporal structure of the signals and distorts GC estimates. However, some notable applications of GC are not concerned with the GC magnitude but its statistical significance. This is the case for network inference, which aims to build a statistical model of the system based on directed relationships among its elements. The critical question for the viability of network inference in fMRI is whether the hemodynamic response function (HRF) and its variability across brain regions introduce spurious relationships, i.e., statistically significant GC values between BOLD signals, even if the GC between the neuronal signals is zero. It has been mathematically proven that such spurious statistical relationships are not induced if the HRF is minimum-phase, i.e., if both the HRF and its inverse are stable (producing finite responses to finite inputs). However, whether the HRF is minimum-phase has remained contentious. Here, we address this issue using multiple realistic biophysical models from the literature and studying their transfer functions. We find that these models are minimum-phase for a wide range of physiologically plausible parameter values. Therefore, statistical testing of GC is plausible even if the HRF varies across brain regions, with the following limitations. First, the minimum-phase condition is violated for parameter combinations that generate an initial dip in the HRF, confirming a previous mathematical proof. Second, the slow sampling of the BOLD signal (in seconds) compared to the timescales of neural signal propagation (milliseconds) may still introduce spurious GC.

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arXiv2023

Linking Symptom Inventories using Semantic Textual Similarity

An extensive library of symptom inventories has been developed over time to measure clinical symptoms, but this variety has led to several long standing issues. Most notably, results drawn from different settings and studies are not comparable, which limits reproducibility. Here, we present an artificial intelligence (AI) approach using semantic textual similarity (STS) to link symptoms and scores across previously incongruous symptom inventories. We tested the ability of four pre-trained STS models to screen thousands of symptom description pairs for related content - a challenging task typically requiring expert panels. Models were tasked to predict symptom severity across four different inventories for 6,607 participants drawn from 16 international data sources. The STS approach achieved 74.8% accuracy across five tasks, outperforming other models tested. This work suggests that incorporating contextual, semantic information can assist expert decision-making processes, yielding gains for both general and disease-specific clinical assessment.

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arXiv2023

Spectral Dynamic Causal Modelling: A Didactic Introduction and its Relationship with Functional Connectivity

We present a didactic introduction to spectral Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM), a Bayesian state-space modelling approach used to infer effective connectivity from non-invasive neuroimaging data. Spectral DCM is currently the most widely applied DCM variant for resting-state functional MRI analysis. Our aim is to explain its technical foundations to an audience with limited expertise in state-space modelling and spectral data analysis. Particular attention will be paid to cross-spectral density, which is the most distinctive feature of spectral DCM and is closely related to functional connectivity, as measured by (zero-lag) Pearson correlations. In fact, the model parameters estimated by spectral DCM are those that best reproduce the cross-correlations between all measurements--at all time lags--including the zero-lag correlations that are usually interpreted as functional connectivity. We derive the functional connectivity matrix from the model equations and show how changing a single effective connectivity parameter can affect all pairwise correlations. To complicate matters, the pairs of brain regions showing the largest changes in functional connectivity do not necessarily coincide with those presenting the largest changes in effective connectivity. We discuss the implications and conclude with a comprehensive summary of the assumptions and limitations of spectral DCM.

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arXiv2023

On efficient computation in active inference

Despite being recognized as neurobiologically plausible, active inference faces difficulties when employed to simulate intelligent behaviour in complex environments due to its computational cost and the difficulty of specifying an appropriate target distribution for the agent. This paper introduces two solutions that work in concert to address these limitations. First, we present a novel planning algorithm for finite temporal horizons with drastically lower computational complexity. Second, inspired by Z-learning from control theory literature, we simplify the process of setting an appropriate target distribution for new and existing active inference planning schemes. Our first approach leverages the dynamic programming algorithm, known for its computational efficiency, to minimize the cost function used in planning through the Bellman-optimality principle. Accordingly, our algorithm recursively assesses the expected free energy of actions in the reverse temporal order. This improves computational efficiency by orders of magnitude and allows precise model learning and planning, even under uncertain conditions. Our method simplifies the planning process and shows meaningful behaviour even when specifying only the agent's final goal state. The proposed solutions make defining a target distribution from a goal state straightforward compared to the more complicated task of defining a temporally informed target distribution. The effectiveness of these methods is tested and demonstrated through simulations in standard grid-world tasks. These advances create new opportunities for various applications.

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arXiv2022

A mathematical perspective on edge-centric brain functional connectivity

Edge time series are increasingly used in brain functional imaging to study the node functional connectivity (nFC) dynamics at the finest temporal resolution while avoiding sliding windows. Here, we lay the mathematical foundations for the edge-centric analysis of neuroimaging time series, explaining why a few high-amplitude cofluctuations drive the nFC across datasets. Our exposition also constitutes a critique of the existing edge-centric studies, showing that their main findings can be derived from the nFC under a static null hypothesis that disregards temporal correlations. Testing the analytic predictions on functional MRI data from the Human Connectome Project confirms that the nFC can explain most variation in the edge FC matrix, the edge communities, the large cofluctuations, and the corresponding spatial patterns. We encourage the use of dynamic measures in future research, which exploit the temporal structure of the edge time series and cannot be replicated by static null models.

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arXiv2021

Active Inference for Stochastic Control

Active inference has emerged as an alternative approach to control problems given its intuitive (probabilistic) formalism. However, despite its theoretical utility, computational implementations have largely been restricted to low-dimensional, deterministic settings. This paper highlights that this is a consequence of the inability to adequately model stochastic transition dynamics, particularly when an extensive policy (i.e., action trajectory) space must be evaluated during planning. Fortunately, recent advancements propose a modified planning algorithm for finite temporal horizons. We build upon this work to assess the utility of active inference for a stochastic control setting. For this, we simulate the classic windy grid-world task with additional complexities, namely: 1) environment stochasticity; 2) learning of transition dynamics; and 3) partial observability. Our results demonstrate the advantage of using active inference, compared to reinforcement learning, in both deterministic and stochastic settings.

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arXiv2021

Identification of brain states, transitions, and communities using functional MRI

Brain function relies on a precisely coordinated and dynamic balance between the functional integration and segregation of distinct neural systems. Characterizing the way in which neural systems reconfigure their interactions to give rise to distinct but hidden brain states remains an open challenge. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model-based characterization of latent brain states and showcase a novel method based on posterior predictive discrepancy using the latent block model to detect transitions between latent brain states in blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) time series. The set of estimated parameters in the model includes a latent label vector that assigns network nodes to communities, and also block model parameters that reflect the weighted connectivity within and between communities. Besides extensive in-silico model evaluation, we also provide empirical validation (and replication) using the Human Connectome Project (HCP) dataset of 100 healthy adults. Our results obtained through an analysis of task-fMRI data during working memory performance show appropriate lags between external task demands and change-points between brain states, with distinctive community patterns distinguishing fixation, low-demand and high-demand task conditions.

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arXiv2020

An Active Learning Method for Diabetic Retinopathy Classification with Uncertainty Quantification

In recent years, deep learning (DL) techniques have provided state-of-the-art performance on different medical imaging tasks. However, the availability of good quality annotated medical data is very challenging due to involved time constraints and the availability of expert annotators, e.g., radiologists. In addition, DL is data-hungry and their training requires extensive computational resources. Another problem with DL is their black-box nature and lack of transparency on its inner working which inhibits causal understanding and reasoning. In this paper, we jointly address these challenges by proposing a hybrid model, which uses a Bayesian convolutional neural network (BCNN) for uncertainty quantification, and an active learning approach for annotating the unlabelled data. The BCNN is used as a feature descriptor and these features are then used for training a model, in an active learning setting. We evaluate the proposed framework for diabetic retinopathy classification problem and have achieved state-of-the-art performance in terms of different metrics.

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arXiv2020

A Generative Model to Synthesize EEG Data for Epileptic Seizure Prediction

Prediction of seizure before they occur is vital for bringing normalcy to the lives of patients. Researchers employed machine learning methods using hand-crafted features for seizure prediction. However, ML methods are too complicated to select the best ML model or best features. Deep Learning methods are beneficial in the sense of automatic feature extraction. One of the roadblocks for accurate seizure prediction is scarcity of epileptic seizure data. This paper addresses this problem by proposing a deep convolutional generative adversarial network to generate synthetic EEG samples. We use two methods to validate synthesized data namely, one-class SVM and a new proposal which we refer to as convolutional epileptic seizure predictor (CESP). Another objective of our study is to evaluate performance of well-known deep learning models (e.g., VGG16, VGG19, ResNet50, and Inceptionv3) by training models on augmented data using transfer learning with average time of 10 min between true prediction and seizure onset. Our results show that CESP model achieves sensitivity of 78.11% and 88.21%, and FPR of 0.27/h and 0.14/h for training on synthesized and testing on real Epilepsyecosystem and CHB-MIT datasets, respectively. Effective results of CESP trained on synthesized data shows that synthetic data acquired the correlation between features and labels very well. We also show that employment of idea of transfer learning and data augmentation in patient-specific manner provides highest accuracy with sensitivity of 90.03% and 0.03 FPR/h which was achieved using Inceptionv3, and that augmenting data with samples generated from DCGAN increased prediction results of our CESP model and Inceptionv3 by 4-5% as compared to state-of-the-art traditional augmentation techniques. Finally, we note that prediction results of CESP achieved by using augmented data are better than chance level for both datasets.

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arXiv2020

Dynamic causal modelling of mitigated epidemiological outcomes

This technical report describes the rationale and technical details for the dynamic causal modelling of mitigated epidemiological outcomes based upon a variety of timeseries data. It details the structure of the underlying convolution or generative model (at the time of writing on 6-Nov-20). This report is intended for use as a reference that accompanies the predictions in following dashboard: https://www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/covid-19/dashboard

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arXiv2020

Parcels and particles: Markov blankets in the brain

At the inception of human brain mapping, two principles of functional anatomy underwrote most conceptions - and analyses - of distributed brain responses: namely functional segregation and integration. There are currently two main approaches to characterising functional integration. The first is a mechanistic modelling of connectomics in terms of directed effective connectivity that mediates neuronal message passing and dynamics on neuronal circuits. The second phenomenological approach usually characterises undirected functional connectivity (i.e., measurable correlations), in terms of intrinsic brain networks, self-organised criticality, dynamical instability, etc. This paper describes a treatment of effective connectivity that speaks to the emergence of intrinsic brain networks and critical dynamics. It is predicated on the notion of Markov blankets that play a fundamental role in the self-organisation of far from equilibrium systems. Using the apparatus of the renormalisation group, we show that much of the phenomenology found in network neuroscience is an emergent property of a particular partition of neuronal states, over progressively larger scales. As such, it offers a way of linking dynamics on directed graphs to the phenomenology of intrinsic brain networks.

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arXiv2020

Effective immunity and second waves: a dynamic causal modelling study

This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiological parameter that speaks to both the consequences of relaxing lockdown and the propensity for a second wave of infections. Using a dynamic causal model of reported cases and deaths from multiple countries, we evaluated the evidence models of progressively longer periods of immunity. The results speak to an effective population immunity of about three months that, under the model, defers any second wave for approximately six months in most countries. This may have implications for the window of opportunity for tracking and tracing, as well as for developing vaccination programmes, and other therapeutic interventions.

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arXiv2020

Tracking and tracing in the UK: a dynamic causal modelling study

By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by people who believe they might be infected but are asymptomatic, and only leave if they test negative. We recovered maximum posteriori estimates of the model parameters using time series of new cases, daily deaths, and tests for the UK. These parameters were used to simulate the trajectory of the outbreak in the UK over an 18-month period. Several clear-cut conclusions emerged from these simulations. For example, under plausible (graded) relaxations of social distancing, a rebound of infections within weeks is unlikely. The emergence of a later second wave depends almost exclusively on the rate at which we lose immunity, inherited from the first wave. There exists no testing strategy that can attenuate mortality rates, other than by deferring or delaying a second wave. A sufficiently powerful tracking and tracing policy--implemented at the time of writing (10th May 2020)--will defer any second wave beyond a time horizon of 18 months. Crucially, this deferment is within current testing capabilities (requiring an efficacy of tracing and tracking of about 20% of asymptomatic infected cases, with less than 50,000 tests per day). These conclusions are based upon a dynamic causal model for which we provide some construct and face validation, using a comparative analysis of the United Kingdom and Germany, supplemented with recent serological studies.

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arXiv2020

Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across America

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity--and the exchange of people between regions--and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses. In particular, we consider hard or soft social distancing strategies predicated on national (Federal) or regional (State) estimates of the prevalence of infection in the population. The modelling is demonstrated using timeseries of new cases and deaths from the United States to estimate the parameters of a factorial (compartmental) epidemiological model of each State and, crucially, coupling between States. Using Bayesian model reduction, we identify the effective connectivity between States that best explains the initial phases of the outbreak in the United States. Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care. The provisional results of this modelling suggest that social distancing and loss of immunity are the two key factors that underwrite a return to endemic equilibrium.

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arXiv2020

Dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19

This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of this model is to quantify the uncertainty that attends predictions of relevant outcomes. By assuming suitable conditional dependencies, one can model the effects of interventions (e.g., social distancing) and differences among populations (e.g., herd immunity) to predict what might happen in different circumstances. Technically, this model leverages state-of-the-art variational (Bayesian) model inversion and comparison procedures, originally developed to characterise the responses of neuronal ensembles to perturbations. Here, this modelling is applied to epidemiological populations to illustrate the kind of inferences that are supported and how the model per se can be optimised given timeseries data. Although the purpose of this paper is to describe a modelling protocol, the results illustrate some interesting perspectives on the current pandemic; for example, the nonlinear effects of herd immunity that speak to a self-organised mitigation process.

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arXiv2020

Machine Learning for Predicting Epileptic Seizures Using EEG Signals: A Review

With the advancement in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques, researchers are striving towards employing these techniques for advancing clinical practice. One of the key objectives in healthcare is the early detection and prediction of disease to timely provide preventive interventions. This is especially the case for epilepsy, which is characterized by recurrent and unpredictable seizures. Patients can be relieved from the adverse consequences of epileptic seizures if it could somehow be predicted in advance. Despite decades of research, seizure prediction remains an unsolved problem. This is likely to remain at least partly because of the inadequate amount of data to resolve the problem. There have been exciting new developments in ML-based algorithms that have the potential to deliver a paradigm shift in the early and accurate prediction of epileptic seizures. Here we provide a comprehensive review of state-of-the-art ML techniques in early prediction of seizures using EEG signals. We will identify the gaps, challenges, and pitfalls in the current research and recommend future directions.

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arXiv2019

Bayesian fusion and multimodal DCM for EEG and fMRI

This paper asks whether integrating multimodal EEG and fMRI data offers a better characterisation of functional brain architectures than either modality alone. This evaluation rests upon a dynamic causal model that generates both EEG and fMRI data from the same neuronal dynamics. We introduce the use of Bayesian fusion to provide informative (empirical) neuronal priors - derived from dynamic causal modelling (DCM) of EEG data - for subsequent DCM of fMRI data. To illustrate this procedure, we generated synthetic EEG and fMRI timeseries for a mismatch negativity (or auditory oddball) paradigm, using biologically plausible model parameters (i.e., posterior expectations from a DCM of empirical, open access, EEG data). Using model inversion, we found that Bayesian fusion provided a substantial improvement in marginal likelihood or model evidence, indicating a more efficient estimation of model parameters, in relation to inverting fMRI data alone. We quantified the benefits of multimodal fusion with the information gain pertaining to neuronal and haemodynamic parameters - as measured by the Kullback-Leibler divergence between their prior and posterior densities. Remarkably, this analysis suggested that EEG data can improve estimates of haemodynamic parameters; thereby furnishing proof-of-principle that Bayesian fusion of EEG and fMRI is necessary to resolve conditional dependencies between neuronal and haemodynamic estimators. These results suggest that Bayesian fusion may offer a useful approach that exploits the complementary temporal (EEG) and spatial (fMRI) precision of different data modalities. We envisage the procedure could be applied to any multimodal dataset that can be explained by a DCM with a common neuronal parameterisation.

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arXiv2019

A tutorial on group effective connectivity analysis, part 1: first level analysis with DCM for fMRI

Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM) is the predominant method for inferring effective connectivity from neuroimaging data. In the 15 years since its introduction, the neural models and statistical routines in DCM have developed in parallel, driven by the needs of researchers in cognitive and clinical neuroscience. In this tutorial, we step through an exemplar fMRI analysis in detail, reviewing the current implementation of DCM and demonstrating recent developments in group-level connectivity analysis. In the first part of the tutorial (current paper), we focus on issues specific to DCM for fMRI, unpacking the relevant theory and highlighting practical considerations. In particular, we clarify the assumptions (i.e., priors) used in DCM for fMRI and how to interpret the model parameters. This tutorial is accompanied by all the necessary data and instructions to reproduce the analyses using the SPM software. In the second part (in a companion paper), we move from subject-level to group-level modelling using the Parametric Empirical Bayes framework, and illustrate how to test for commonalities and differences in effective connectivity across subjects, based on imaging data from any modality.

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