SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

Adeline Lo

Publications and source records attributed to Adeline Lo.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

A Statistical Model of Bipartite Networks: Application to Cosponsorship in the United States Senate

Many networks in political and social research are bipartite, with edges connecting exclusively across two distinct types of nodes. A common example includes cosponsorship networks, in which legislators are connected indirectly through the bills they support. Yet most existing network models are designed for unipartite networks, where edges can arise between any pair of nodes. However, using a unipartite network model to analyze bipartite networks, as often done in practice, can result in aggregation bias and artificially high-clustering -- a particularly insidious problem when studying the role groups play in network formation. To address these methodological problems, we develop a statistical model of bipartite networks theorized to be generated through group interactions by extending the popular mixed-membership stochastic blockmodel. Our model allows researchers to identify the groups of nodes, within each node type in the bipartite structure, that share common patterns of edge formation. The model also incorporates both node and dyad-level covariates as the predictors of group membership and of observed dyadic relations. We develop an efficient computational algorithm for fitting the model, and apply it to cosponsorship data from the United States Senate. We show that legislators in a Senate that was perfectly split along party lines were able to remain productive and pass major legislation by forming non-partisan, power-brokering coalitions that found common ground through their collaboration on low-stakes bills. We also find evidence for norms of reciprocity, and uncover the substantial role played by policy expertise in the formation of cosponsorships between senators and legislation. We make an open-source software package available that makes it possible for other researchers to uncover similar insights from bipartite networks.

stat.AP

Estimating the theoretical error rate for prediction

Prediction for very large data sets is typically carried out in two stages, variable selection and pattern recognition. Ordinarily variable selection involves seeing how well individual explanatory variables are correlated with the dependent variable. This practice neglects the possible interactions among the variables. Simulations have shown that a statistic I, that we used for variable selection is much better correlated with predictivity than significance levels. We explain this by defining theoretical predictivity and show how I is related to predictivity. We calculate the biases of the overoptimistic training estimate of predictivity and of the pessimistic out of sample estimate. Corrections for the bias lead to improved estimates of the potential predictivity using small groups of possibly interacting variables. These results support the use of I in the variable selection phase of prediction for data sets such as in GWAS (Genome wide association studies) where there are very many explanatory variables and modest sample sizes. Reference is made to another publication using I, which led to a reduction in the error rate of prediction from 30% to 8%, for a data set with, 4,918 variables and 97 subjects. This data set had been previously studied by scientists for over 10 years.

stat.ME