arXiv subjects

Adilson Simonis

Publications and source records attributed to Adilson Simonis.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Metastable Financial Markets

Metastability is a phenomenon observed in stochastic systems which stay in a false-equilibrium within a region of its state space until the occurrence of a sequence of rare events that leads to an abrupt transition to a different region. This paper presents financial markets as metastable systems and shows that, under this assumption, financial time series evolve as hidden Markov models. In special, we propose a theory that outlines an explicit causal relation between a financial market and the evolution of a financial time series. In the context of financial economics and causal factor investment, this theory introduces a paradigm shift, suggesting that investment performance fluctuations are primarily driven by the market state rather than direct causation by other variables. While not incompatible with traditional causal inference, our approach addresses the non-stationary evolution of time series through changes in market states, enhancing risk assessment and enabling mitigation strategies.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

The role of prior information and computational power in Machine Learning

Science consists on conceiving hypotheses, confronting them with empirical evidence, and keeping only hypotheses which have not yet been falsified. Under deductive reasoning they are conceived in view of a theory and confronted with empirical evidence in an attempt to falsify it, and under inductive reasoning they are conceived based on observation, confronted with empirical evidence and a theory is established based on the not falsified hypotheses. When the hypotheses testing can be performed with quantitative data, the confrontation can be achieved with Machine Learning methods, whose quality is highly dependent on the hypotheses' complexity, hence on the proper insertion of prior information into the set of hypotheses seeking to decrease its complexity without loosing good hypotheses. However, Machine Learning tools have been applied under the pragmatic view of instrumentalism, which is concerned only with the performance of the methods and not with the understanding of their behavior, leading to methods which are not fully understood. In this context, we discuss how prior information and computational power can be employed to solve a learning problem, but while prior information and a careful design of the hypotheses space has as advantage the interpretability of the results, employing high computational power has the advantage of a higher performance. We discuss why learning methods which combine both should work better from an understanding and performance perspective, arguing in favor of basic theoretical research on Machine Learning, in special about how properties of classifiers may be identified in parameters of modern learning models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Learning the hypotheses space from data through a U-curve algorithm

This paper proposes a data-driven systematic, consistent and non-exhaustive approach to Model Selection, that is an extension of the classical agnostic PAC learning model. In this approach, learning problems are modeled not only by a hypothesis space $\mathcal{H}$, but also by a Learning Space $\mathbb{L}(\mathcal{H})$, a poset of subspaces of $\mathcal{H}$, which covers $\mathcal{H}$ and satisfies a property regarding the VC dimension of related subspaces, that is a suitable algebraic search space for Model Selection algorithms. Our main contributions are a data-driven general learning algorithm to perform implicitly regularized Model Selection on $\mathbb{L}(\mathcal{H})$ and a framework under which one can, theoretically, better estimate a target hypothesis with a given sample size by properly modeling $\mathbb{L}(\mathcal{H})$ and employing high computational power. A remarkable consequence of this approach are conditions under which a non-exhaustive search of $\mathbb{L}(\mathcal{H})$ can return an optimal solution. The results of this paper lead to a practical property of Machine Learning, that the lack of experimental data may be mitigated by a high computational capacity. In a context of continuous popularization of computational power, this property may help understand why Machine Learning has become so important, even where data is expensive and hard to get.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Learning the Hypotheses Space from data: Learning Space and U-curve Property

This paper presents an extension of the classical agnostic PAC learning model in which learning problems are modelled not only by a Hypothesis Space $\mathcal{H}$, but also by a Learning Space $\mathbb{L}(\mathcal{H})$, which is a cover of $\mathcal{H}$, constrained by a VC-dimension property, that is a suitable domain for Model Selection algorithms. Our main contribution is a data driven general learning algorithm to perform regularized Model Selection on $\mathbb{L}(\mathcal{H})$. A remarkable, formally proved, consequence of this approach are conditions on $\mathbb{L}(\mathcal{H})$ and on the loss function that lead to estimated out-of-sample error surfaces which are true U-curves on $\mathbb{L}(\mathcal{H})$ chains, enabling a more efficient search on $\mathbb{L}(\mathcal{H})$. To our knowledge, this is the first rigorous result asserting that a non exhaustive search of a family of candidate models can return an optimal solution. In this new framework, an U-curve optimization algorithm becomes a natural component of Model Selection, hence of learning algorithms. The abstract general framework proposed here may have important implications on modern learning models and on areas such as Neural Architecture Search.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Learning the Hypotheses Space from data Part II: Convergence and Feasibility

In part \textit{I} we proposed a structure for a general Hypotheses Space $\mathcal{H}$, the Learning Space $\mathbb{L}(\mathcal{H})$, which can be employed to avoid \textit{overfitting} when estimating in a complex space with relative shortage of examples. Also, we presented the U-curve property, which can be taken advantage of in order to select a Hypotheses Space without exhaustively searching $\mathbb{L}(\mathcal{H})$. In this paper, we carry further our agenda, by showing the consistency of a model selection framework based on Learning Spaces, in which one selects from data the Hypotheses Space on which to learn. The method developed in this paper adds to the state-of-the-art in model selection, by extending Vapnik-Chervonenkis Theory to \textit{random} Hypotheses Spaces, i.e., Hypotheses Spaces learned from data. In this framework, one estimates a random subspace $\hat{\mathcal{M}} \in \mathbb{L}(\mathcal{H})$ which converges with probability one to a target Hypotheses Space $\mathcal{M}^{\star} \in \mathbb{L}(\mathcal{H})$ with desired properties. As the convergence implies asymptotic unbiased estimators, we have a consistent framework for model selection, showing that it is feasible to learn the Hypotheses Space from data. Furthermore, we show that the generalization errors of learning on $\hat{\mathcal{M}}$ are lesser than those we commit when learning on $\mathcal{H}$, so it is more efficient to learn on a subspace learned from data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Local Lift Dependence Scale

We propose a local and general dependence quantifier between two random variables $X$ and $Y$, which we call Local Lift Dependence Scale, that does not assume any form of dependence (e.g., linear) between $X$ and $Y$, and is defined for a large class of random variables, singular and absolutely continuous w.r.t Lebesgue measure. We argue that this dependence scale is more general and suitable to study variable dependence than other specific local dependence quantifiers and global dependence coefficients, as the Mutual Information. An outline of how this dependence scale may be useful in branches of applied probability and topics for future research are presented.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Feature Selection based on the Local Lift Dependence Scale

This paper uses a classical approach to feature selection: minimization of a cost function applied on estimated joint distributions. However, the search space in which such minimization is performed is extended. In the original formulation, the search space is the Boolean lattice of features sets (BLFS), while, in the present formulation, it is a collection of Boolean lattices of ordered pairs (features, associated value) (CBLOP), indexed by the elements of the BLFS. In this approach, we may not only select the features that are most related to a variable Y, but also select the values of the features that most influence the variable or that are most prone to have a specific value of Y. A local formulation of Shanon's mutual information is applied on a CBLOP to select features, namely, the Local Lift Dependence Scale, an scale for measuring variable dependence in multiple resolutions. The main contribution of this paper is to define and apply this local measure, which permits to analyse local properties of joint distributions that are neglected by the classical Shanon's global measure. The proposed approach is applied to a dataset consisting of student performances on a university entrance exam, as well as on undergraduate courses. The approach is also applied to two datasets of the UCI Machine Learning Repository.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2011

Properties of Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process with affine intensity

This paper discusses properties of a Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process (DSPP) where the intensity process belongs to a class of affine diffusions. For any intensity process from this class we derive an analytical expression for probability distribution functions of the corresponding DSPP. A specification of our results is provided in a particular case where the intensity is given by one-dimensional Feller process and its parameters are estimated by Kalman filtering for high frequency transaction data.

math.ST↗