arXiv subjects

Adrian M. Price-Whelan

Publications and source records attributed to Adrian M. Price-Whelan.

At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

Galaxy Interactions Trigger Rapid Black Hole Growth: an unprecedented view from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey

Collisions and interactions between gas-rich galaxies are thought to be pivotal stages in their formation and evolution, causing the rapid production of new stars, and possibly serving as a mechanism for fueling supermassive black holes (BH). Harnessing the exquisite spatial resolution (~0.5 arcsec) afforded by the first ~170 deg^2 of the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) Survey, we present our new constraints on the importance of galaxy-galaxy major mergers (1:4) in growing BHs throughout the last ~8 Gyrs. Utilizing mid-infrared observations in the WISE All-Sky survey, we robustly select active galactic nuclei (AGN) and mass-matched control galaxy samples, totaling ~140,000 spectroscopically confirmed systems at i<22 mag. We identify galaxy interaction signatures using a novel machine-learning random forest decision tree technique allowing us to select statistically significant samples of major-mergers, minor-mergers/irregular-systems, and non-interacting galaxies. We use these samples to show that galaxies undergoing mergers are a factor ~2-7 more likely to contain luminous obscured AGN than non-interacting galaxies, and this is independent of both stellar mass and redshift to z < 0.9. Furthermore, based on our comparison of AGN fractions in mass-matched samples, we determine that the most luminous AGN population (L_AGN > 10^45 erg/s) systematically reside in merging systems over non-interacting galaxies. Our findings show that galaxy-galaxy interactions do, on average, trigger luminous AGN activity substantially more often than in secularly evolving non-interacting galaxies, and we further suggest that the BH growth rate may be closely tied to the dynamical time of the merger system.

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arXiv2017

SMHASH: Anatomy of the Orphan Stream using RR Lyrae stars

Stellar tidal streams provide an opportunity to study the motion and structure of the disrupting galaxy as well as the gravitational potential of its host. Streams around the Milky Way are especially promising as phase space positions of individual stars will be measured by ongoing or upcoming surveys. Nevertheless, it remains a challenge to accurately assess distances to stars farther than 10 kpc from the Sun, where we have the poorest knowledge of the Galaxy's mass distribution. To address this we present observations of 32 candidate RR Lyrae stars in the Orphan tidal stream taken as part of the Spitzer Merger History and Shape of the Galactic Halo (SMHASH) program. The extremely tight correlation between the periods, luminosities, and metallicities of RR Lyrae variable stars in the Spitzer IRAC $\mathrm{3.6 μm}$ band allows the determination of precise distances to individual stars; the median statistical distance uncertainty to each RR Lyrae star is $2.5\%$. By fitting orbits in an example potential we obtain an upper limit on the mass of the Milky Way interior to 60 kpc of $\mathrm{5.6_{-1.1}^{+1.2}\times 10^{11}\ M_\odot}$, bringing estimates based on the Orphan Stream in line with those using other tracers. The SMHASH data also resolve the stream in line--of--sight depth, allowing a new perspective on the internal structure of the disrupted dwarf galaxy. Comparing with N--body models we find that the progenitor had an initial dark halo mass of approximately $\mathrm{3.2 \times 10^{9}\ M_\odot}$, placing the Orphan Stream's progenitor amongst the classical dwarf spheroidals.

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arXiv2017

Gaps and length asymmetry in the stellar stream Palomar 5 as effects of Galactic bar rotation

Recent Pan-STARRS data show that the leading arm from the globular cluster Palomar 5 (Pal 5) appears shorter than the trailing arm, while simulations of Pal 5 predict similar angular extents. We demonstrate that including the spinning Galactic bar with appropriate pattern speeds in the dynamical modeling of Pal 5 can reproduce the Pan-STARRS data. As the bar sweeps by, some stream stars experience a difference in net torques near pericenter. This leads to the formation of apparent gaps along Pal 5's tidal streams and these gaps grow due to an energy offset from the rest of the stream members. We conclude that only streams orbiting far from the Galactic center or streams on retrograde orbits (with respect to the bar) can be used to unambiguously constrain dark matter subhalo interactions. Additionally, we expect that the Pal 5 leading arm debris should re-appear south of the Pan-STARRS density truncation.

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arXiv2017

Kronos & Krios: Evidence for accretion of a massive, rocky planetary system in a comoving pair of solar-type stars

We report and discuss the discovery of a comoving pair of bright solar-type stars, HD 240430 and HD 240429, with a significant difference in their chemical abundances. The two stars have an estimated 3D separation of $\approx 0.6$ pc ($\approx 0.01$ pc projected) at a distance of $r\approx 100$ pc with nearly identical three-dimensional velocities, as inferred from Gaia TGAS parallaxes and proper motions, and high-precision radial velocity measurements. Stellar parameters determined from high-resolution Keck HIRES spectra indicate that both stars are $\sim 4$ Gyr old. The more metal-rich of the two, HD 240430, shows an enhancement of refractory ($T_C>1200$ K) elements by $\approx 0.2$ dex and a marginal enhancement of (moderately) volatile elements ($T_C<1200$ K, C, N, O, Na, and Mn). This is the largest metallicity difference found in a wide binary pair yet. Additionally, HD 240430 shows an anomalously high surface lithium abundance ($A(\mathrm{Li})=2.75$), higher than its companion by $0.5$ dex. The proximity in phase-space and ages between the two stars suggests that they formed together with the same composition, at odds with the observed differences in metallicity and abundance patterns. We therefore suggest that the star HD~240430, "Kronos", accreted 15 $M_\oplus$ of rocky material after birth, selectively enhancing the refractory elements as well as lithium in its surface and convective envelope.

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arXiv2017

Spectroscopic confirmation of very-wide stellar binaries and large-separation comoving pairs from Gaia DR1

Members of widely-separated stellar binaries (> 0.1 pc) or loosely bound stellar associations and clusters are born with small spreads in kinematics and chemistry, but disrupt and dissociate on timescales comparable to their orbital time within the Milky Way. The kinematic properties of comoving star pairs---bound wide binaries or unbound but coeval stars---are therefore sensitive to both the smooth tidal field and gravitational perturbation spectrum of the Milky Way. In previous work, we identified >4,000 candidate comoving pairs using only astrometric data from the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS) catalog and find a large number of pairs with separations > 1 pc. Without radial velocity measurements for the vast majority of these pairs, the false-positive rate at these separations is significant (~50%). Here we present results from our own low-resolution radial-velocity survey of a random sample of the candidate pairs to identify and validate true comoving star pairs. Of the 311 observed comoving pairs, we confirm 127 comoving pairs with separations as large as ~10 pc, our original search limit. Between separations of 0.001 pc to ~0.5 pc, the number of confirmed pairs per separation decreases with increasing separation (number per log separation is uniform). From ~0.5 pc to 10 pc, the number per separation is approximately uniform (number per log separation increases). We confirm the discovery of a population of comoving star pairs at very large separations, suggesting that disrupted wide binaries and stellar associations remain approximately spatially coherent.

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arXiv2017

Disk Heating, Galactoseismology, and the Formation of Stellar Halos

Deep photometric surveys of the Milky Way have revealed diffuse structures encircling our Galaxy far beyond the "classical" limits of the stellar disk. This paper reviews results from our own and other observational programs, which together suggest that, despite their extreme positions, the stars in these structures were formed in our Galactic disk. Mounting evidence from recent observations and simulations implies kinematic connections between several of these distinct structures. This suggests the existence of collective disk oscillations that can plausibly be traced all the way to asymmetries seen in the stellar velocity distribution around the Sun. There are multiple interesting implications of these findings: they promise new perspectives on the process of disk heating, they provide direct evidence for a stellar halo formation mechanism in addition to the accretion and disruption of satellite galaxies, and, they motivate searches of current and near-future surveys to trace these oscillations across the Galaxy. Such maps could be used as dynamical diagnostics in the emerging field of "Galactoseismology", which promises to model the history of interactions between the Milky Way and its entourage of satellites, as well examine the density of our dark matter halo. As sensitivity to very low surface brightness features around external galaxies increases, many more examples of such disk oscillations will likely be identified. Statistical samples of such features not only encode detailed information about interaction rates and mergers, but also about long sought-after dark matter halo densities and shapes. Models for the Milky Way's own Galactoseismic history will therefore serve as a critical foundation for studying the weak dynamical interactions of galaxies across the universe.

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arXiv2017

Exploring Halo Substructure with Giant Stars. XV. Discovery of a Connection between the Monoceros Ring and the Triangulum-Andromeda Overdensity?

Thanks to modern sky surveys, over twenty stellar streams and overdensity structures have been discovered in the halo of the Milky Way. In this paper, we present an analysis of spectroscopic observations of individual stars from one such structure, "A13", first identified as an overdensity using the M giant catalog from the Two Micron All-Sky Survey. Our spectroscopic observations show that stars identified with A13 have a velocity dispersion of $\lesssim$ 40 $\mathrm{km~s^{-1}}$, implying that it is a genuine coherent structure rather than a chance super-position of random halo stars. From its position on the sky, distance ($\sim$15~kpc heliocentric), and kinematical properties, A13 is likely to be an extension of another low Galactic latitude substructure -- the Galactic Anticenter Stellar Structure (also known as the Monoceros Ring) -- towards smaller Galactic longitude and farther distance. Furthermore, the kinematics of A13 also connect it with another structure in the southern Galactic hemisphere -- the Triangulum-Andromeda overdensity. We discuss these three connected structures within the context of a previously proposed scenario that one or all of these features originate from the disk of the Milky Way.

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arXiv2017

Improving \textsl{Gaia} parallax precision with a data-driven model of stars

Converting a noisy parallax measurement into a posterior belief over distance requires inference with a prior. Usually this prior represents beliefs about the stellar density distribution of the Milky Way. However, multi-band photometry exists for a large fraction of the \textsl{\small{Gaia}} \textsl{\small{TGAS}} Catalog and is incredibly informative about stellar distances. Here we use \textsl{\small{2MASS}} colors for 1.4 million \textsl{\small{TGAS}} stars to build a noise-deconvolved empirical prior distribution for stars in color--magnitude space. This model contains no knowledge of stellar astrophysics or the Milky Way, but is precise because it accurately generates a large number of noisy parallax measurements under an assumption of stationarity; that is, it is capable of combining the information from many stars. We use the Extreme Deconvolution (\textsl{\small{XD}}) algorithm---an Empirical Bayes approximation to a full hierarchical model of the true parallax and photometry of every star---to construct this prior. The prior is combined with a \textsl{\small{TGAS}} likelihood to infer a precise photometric parallax estimate and uncertainty (and full posterior) for every star. Our parallax estimates are more precise than the \textsl{\small{TGAS}} catalog entries by a median factor of 1.2 (14% are more precise by a factor >2) and are more precise than previous Bayesian distance estimates that use spatial priors. We validate our parallax inferences using members of the Milky Way star cluster M67, which is not visible as a cluster in the \textsl{\small{TGAS}} parallax estimates, but appears as a cluster in our posterior parallax estimates. Our results, including a parallax posterior pdf for each of 1.4 million \textsl{\small{TGAS}} stars, are available in companion electronic tables.

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arXiv2017

Comoving stars in Gaia DR1: An abundance of very wide separation co-moving pairs

The primary sample of the {\it Gaia} Data Release 1 is the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS): $\approx$ 2 million Tycho-2 sources with improved parallaxes and proper motions relative to the initial catalog. This increased astrometric precision presents an opportunity to find new binary stars and moving groups. We search for high-confidence comoving pairs of stars in TGAS by identifying pairs of stars consistent with having the same 3D velocity using a marginalized likelihood ratio test to discriminate candidate comoving pairs from the field population. Although we perform some visualizations using (bias- corrected) inverse parallax as a point estimate of distance, the likelihood ratio is computed with a probabilistic model that includes the covariances of parallax and proper motions and marginalizes the (unknown) true distances and 3D velocities of the stars. We find 13,085 comoving star pairs among 10,606 unique stars with separations as large as 10 pc (our search limit). Some of these pairs form larger groups through mutual comoving neighbors: many of these pair networks correspond to known open clusters and OB associations, but we also report the discovery of several new comoving groups. Most surprisingly, we find a large number of very wide ($>1$ pc) separation comoving star pairs, the number of which increases with increasing separation and cannot be explained purely by false-positive contamination. Our key result is a catalog of high-confidence comoving pairs of stars in TGAS. We discuss the utility of this catalog for making dynamical inferences about the Galaxy, testing stellar atmosphere models, and validating chemical abundance measurements.

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arXiv2017

Sumo Puff: Tidal Debris or Disturbed Ultra-Diffuse Galaxy?

We report the discovery of a diffuse stellar cloud with an angular extent $\gtrsim30^{\prime\prime}$, which we term "Sumo Puff", in data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP). While we do not have a redshift for this object, it is in close angular proximity to a post-merger galaxy at redshift $z=0.0431$ and is projected within a few virial radii (assuming similar redshifts) of two other ${\sim}L_\star$ galaxies, which we use to bracket a potential redshift range of $0.0055 < z < 0.0431$. The object's light distribution is flat, as characterized by a low Sersic index ($n\sim0.3$). It has a low central $g$-band surface brightness of ${\sim}26.4$ mag arcsec$^{-2}$, large effective radius of ${\sim}13^{\prime\prime}$ (${\sim}11$ kpc at $z=0.0431$ and ${\sim}1.5$ kpc at $z=0.0055$), and an elongated morphology ($b/a\sim0.4$). Its red color ($g-i\sim1$) is consistent with a passively evolving stellar population and similar to the nearby post-merger galaxy, and we may see tidal material connecting Sumo Puff with this galaxy. We offer two possible interpretations for the nature of this object: (1) it is an extreme, galaxy-size tidal feature associated with a recent merger event, or (2) it is a foreground dwarf galaxy with properties consistent with a quenched, disturbed ultra-diffuse galaxy. We present a qualitative comparison with simulations that demonstrates the feasibility of forming a structure similar to this object in a merger event. Follow-up spectroscopy and/or deeper imaging to confirm the presence of the bridge of tidal material will be necessary to reveal the true nature of this object.

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arXiv2017

Spending too much time at the Galactic bar: chaotic fanning of the Ophiuchus stream

The Ophiuchus stellar stream is peculiar: (1) its length is short given the age of its constituent stars, and (2) several probable member stars that lie close in both sky position and velocity have dispersions in these dimensions that far exceed those seen within the stream. The stream's proximity to the Galactic center suggests that the bar must have a significant influence on its dynamical history: The triaxiality and time-dependence of the bar may generate chaotic orbits in the vicinity of the stream that can greatly affect its morphology. We explore this hypothesis with models of stream formation along orbits consistent with Ophiuchus' properties in a Milky Way potential model that includes a rotating bar. We find that in all choices for the rotation parameters of the bar, orbits fit to the stream are strongly chaotic. Mock streams generated along these orbits qualitatively match the observed properties of the stream: because of chaos, stars stripped early generally form low-density, high-dispersion "fans" leaving only the most recently disrupted material detectable as a strong over-density. Our models predict that there should be more low-surface-brightness tidal debris than detected so far, likely with a complex phase-space morphology. The existence of or lack of these features around the Ophiuchus stream would provide an interesting constraint on the properties of the Milky Way bar and would help distinguish between formation scenarios for the stream. This is the first time that chaos has been used to explain the properties of a stellar stream and is the first demonstration of the dynamical importance of chaos in the Galactic halo. The existence of long, thin streams around the Milky Way---presumably formed along non- or weakly-chaotic orbits---may represent only a subset of the total population of disrupted satellites.

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arXiv2017

The Joker: A custom Monte Carlo sampler for binary-star and exoplanet radial velocity data

Given sparse or low-quality radial-velocity measurements of a star, there are often many qualitatively different stellar or exoplanet companion orbit models that are consistent with the data. The consequent multimodality of the likelihood function leads to extremely challenging search, optimization, and MCMC posterior sampling over the orbital parameters. Here we create a custom Monte Carlo sampler for sparse or noisy radial-velocity measurements of two-body systems that can produce posterior samples for orbital parameters even when the likelihood function is poorly behaved. The six standard orbital parameters for a binary system can be split into four non-linear parameters (period, eccentricity, argument of pericenter, phase) and two linear parameters (velocity amplitude, barycenter velocity). We capitalize on this by building a sampling method in which we densely sample the prior pdf in the non-linear parameters and perform rejection sampling using a likelihood function marginalized over the linear parameters. With sparse or uninformative data, the sampling obtained by this rejection sampling is generally multimodal and dense. With informative data, the sampling becomes effectively unimodal but too sparse: in these cases we follow the rejection sampling with standard MCMC. The method produces correct samplings in orbital parameters for data that include as few as three epochs. The Joker can therefore be used to produce proper samplings of multimodal pdfs, which are still informative and can be used in hierarchical (population) modeling. We give some examples that show how the posterior pdf depends sensitively on the number and time coverage of the observations and their uncertainties.

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arXiv2017

A Probabilistic Approach to Fitting Period-Luminosity Relations and Validating Gaia Parallaxes

Pulsating stars, such as Cepheids, Miras, and RR Lyrae stars, are important distance indicators and calibrators of the "cosmic distance ladder", and yet their period-luminosity-metallicity (PLZ) relations are still constrained using simple statistical methods that cannot take full advantage of available data. To enable optimal usage of data provided by the Gaia mission, we present a probabilistic approach that simultaneously constrains parameters of PLZ relations and uncertainties in Gaia parallax measurements. We demonstrate this approach by constraining PLZ relations of type $ab$ RR Lyrae stars in near-infrared W1 and W2 bands, using Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS) parallax measurements for a sample of $\approx100$ type $ab$ RR Lyrae stars located within 2.5 kpc of the Sun. The fitted PLZ relations are consistent with previous studies, and in combination with other data, deliver distances precise to 6% (once various sources of uncertainty are taken into account). To a precision of 0.05 mas ($1σ$), we do not find a statistically significant offset in TGAS parallaxes for this sample of distant RR Lyrae stars (median parallax of 0.8 mas and distance of 1.4 kpc). With only minor modifications, our probabilistic approach can be used to constrain PLZ relations of other pulsating stars, and we intend to apply it to Cepheid and Mira stars in the near future.

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arXiv2016

The clustering of galaxies in the completed SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: cosmological analysis of the DR12 galaxy sample

We present cosmological results from the final galaxy clustering data set of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey, part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III. Our combined galaxy sample comprises 1.2 million massive galaxies over an effective area of 9329 deg^2 and volume of 18.7 Gpc^3, divided into three partially overlapping redshift slices centred at effective redshifts 0.38, 0.51, and 0.61. We measure the angular diameter distance DM and Hubble parameter H from the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) method after applying reconstruction to reduce non-linear effects on the BAO feature. Using the anisotropic clustering of the pre-reconstruction density field, we measure the product DM*H from the Alcock-Paczynski (AP) effect and the growth of structure, quantified by fσ8(z), from redshift-space distortions (RSD). We combine measurements presented in seven companion papers into a set of consensus values and likelihoods, obtaining constraints that are tighter and more robust than those from any one method. Combined with Planck 2015 cosmic microwave background measurements, our distance scale measurements simultaneously imply curvature Ω_K =0.0003+/-0.0026 and a dark energy equation of state parameter w = -1.01+/-0.06, in strong affirmation of the spatially flat cold dark matter model with a cosmological constant (ΛCDM). Our RSD measurements of fσ_8, at 6 per cent precision, are similarly consistent with this model. When combined with supernova Ia data, we find H0 = 67.3+/-1.0 km/s/Mpc even for our most general dark energy model, in tension with some direct measurements. Adding extra relativistic species as a degree of freedom loosens the constraint only slightly, to H0 = 67.8+/-1.2 km/s/Mpc. Assuming flat ΛCDM we find Ω_m = 0.310+/-0.005 and H0 = 67.6+/-0.5 km/s/Mpc, and we find a 95% upper limit of 0.16 eV/c^2 on the neutrino mass sum.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2016

Chaotic Dispersal of Tidal Debris

Several long, dynamically cold stellar streams have been observed around the Milky Way Galaxy, presumably formed from the tidal disruption of globular clusters. In integrable potentials---where all orbits are regular---tidal debris phase-mixes close to the orbit of the progenitor system. However, the Milky Way's dark matter halo is expected not to be fully integrable; an appreciable fraction of orbits will be chaotic. This paper examines the influence of chaos on the phase-space morphology of cold tidal streams. Streams even in weakly chaotic regions look very different from those in regular regions. We find that streams can be sensitive to chaos on a much shorter time-scale than any standard prediction (from the Lyapunov or frequency-diffusion times). For example, on a weakly chaotic orbit with a chaotic timescale predicted to be $>$1000 orbital periods ($>$1000 Gyr), the resulting stellar stream is, after just a few 10's of orbits, substantially more diffuse than any formed on a nearby but regular orbit. We find that the enhanced diffusion of the stream stars can be understood by looking at the variance in orbital frequencies of orbit ensembles centered around the parent (progenitor) orbit. Our results suggest that long, cold streams around our Galaxy must exist only on regular (or very nearly regular) orbits; they potentially provide a map of the regular regions of the Milky Way potential. This suggests a promising new direction for the use of tidal streams to constrain the distribution of dark matter around our Galaxy.

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arXiv2016

Tidal Stream Morphology as an Indicator of Dark Matter Halo Geometry: the Case of Palomar 5

This paper presents an example where the morphology of a single stellar stream can be used to rule out a specific galactic potential form without the need for velocity information. We investigate the globular cluster Palomar5 (Pal 5), which is tidally disrupting into a cold, thin stream mapped over 22 degrees on the sky with a typical width of 0.7 degrees. We generate models of this stream by fixing Pal 5's present-day position, distance and radial velocity via observations, while allowing its proper motion to vary. In a spherical dark matter halo we easily find models that fit the observed morphology. However, no plausible Pal 5 model could be found in the triaxial potential of Law & Majewski (2010), which has been proposed to explain the properties of the Sagittarius stream. In this case, the long, thin and curved morphology of the Pal5 stream alone can be used to rule out such a potential configuration. Pal 5 like streams in this potential are either too straight, missing the curvature of the observations, or show an unusual morphology which we dub stream-fanning: a signature sensitive to the triaxiality of a potential. We conclude that the mere existence of other thin tidal streams must provide broad constraints on the orientation and shape of the dark matter halo they inhabit.

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arXiv2015

A re-interpretation of the Triangulum-Andromeda stellar clouds: a population of halo stars kicked out of the Galactic disk

The Triangulum-Andromeda stellar clouds (TriAnd1 and TriAnd2) are a pair of concentric ring- or shell-like over-densities at large $R$ ($\approx$ 30 kpc) and $Z$ ($\approx$ -10 kpc) in the Galactic halo that are thought to have been formed from the accretion and disruption of a satellite galaxy. This paper critically re-examines this formation scenario by comparing the number ratio of RR Lyrae to M giant stars associated with the TriAnd clouds with other structures in the Galaxy. The current data suggest a stellar population for these over-densities ($f_{\rm RR:MG} < 0.38$ at 95% confidence) quite unlike any of the known satellites of the Milky Way ($f_{\rm RR:MG} \approx 0.5$ for the very largest and $f_{\rm RR:MG} >>1$ for the smaller satellites) and more like the population of stars born in the much deeper potential well inhabited by the Galactic disk ($f_{\rm RR:MG} < 0.01$). N-body simulations of a Milky-Way-like galaxy perturbed by the impact of a dwarf galaxy demonstrate that, in the right circumstances, concentric rings propagating outwards from that Galactic disk can plausibly produce similar over-densities. These results provide dramatic support for the recent proposal by Xu et al. (2015) that, rather than stars accreted from other galaxies, the TriAnd clouds could represent stars kicked-out from our own disk. If so, these would be the first populations of disk stars to be found in the Galactic halo and a clear signature of the importance of this second formation mechanism for stellar halos more generally. Moreover, their existence at the very extremities of the disk places strong constraints on the nature of the interaction that formed them.

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arXiv2015

Multiple periods in the variability of the supermassive black hole binary candidate quasar PG1302-102?

Graham et al. (2015) discovered a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) candidate and identified the detected 5.2 yr period of the optical variability as the orbital period of the binary. Hydrodynamical simulations predict multiple periodic components for the variability of SMBHBs, thus raising the possibility that the true period of the binary is different from 5.2 yr. We analyse the periodogram of PG1302 and find no compelling evidence for additional peaks. We derive upper limits on any additional periodic modulations in the available data, by modeling the light-curve as the sum of red noise and the known 5.2 yr periodic component, and injecting additional sinusoidal signals. We find that, with the current data, we would be able to detect with high significance (false alarm probability <1%) secondary periodic terms with periods in the range predicted by the simulations, if the amplitude of the variability was at least ~0.07 mag (compared to 0.14 mag for the main peak). A three-year follow-up monitoring campaign with weekly observations can increase the sensitivity for detecting secondary peaks ~50%, and would allow a more robust test of predictions from hydrodynamical simulations.

astro-ph.HE↗