arXiv subjects

Adrian Weller

Publications and source records attributed to Adrian Weller.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Politician, the Liar, and the Obedient Worker: Emerging Behavior of LLM Agents in Hierarchical Games

LLMs are rapidly embedding themselves into daily life: drafting our emails, managing our schedules, and making decisions on our behalf. As they move from individual tools to participants in multi-agent organizations, an important question arises: do they reproduce the governance failures like free-riding, corruption, and entrenched leadership that plague human institutions? We introduce the Hierarchical Game (HG), a public goods game extended with managerial authority, democratic elections, and private communication. Testing six frontier models across twelve experiments that add institutions one at a time (speech, peers, government, wages, oversight, elections), we find distinct behavioral profiles: Qwen promises and lies (13.3\% broken promises); Grok refuses to cooperate on its own but becomes fully cooperative once a manager can punish it (16\%$\to$100\%); Claude and GPT-4o cooperate reliably at baseline. But honesty proves fragile. When the manager role comes with a salary, all models except GPT-4o start cutting private deals to win or keep the position. When punishment is made anonymous, honest models begin to cheat. When all agents share the same model family, the first elected manager stays in power indefinitely. Leadership change only happens in groups that mix different families.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Human agency in initial human-AI proof formalization workflows

For centuries, human mathematicians have written proofs to substantiate their mathematical arguments; yet, the ability to automatically verify the validity of proofs has long been a challenge. Advances in AI systems' ability to generate code and engage in increasingly high-level mathematical reasoning promise to transform people's ability to formalize and thereby verify proofs. While many works focus on benchmarking the current frontier, we instead study how people use these tools and apply agency in doing so. We conduct a mixed-methods analysis into the initial impact of AI on people's formalization workflows: what people claim they want, what they see as the barriers to those visions, and how they actually use and adapt AI in practice. A qualitative survey reveals that people's preferences are diverse, but with a general desire for AI assistance in formalization that preserves high-level human control and agency over the proof discovery process. To assess how people actually engage with AI for formalization, we conduct a controlled user study in which participants formalize informal math problems and their proofs, with and without AI, across a range of mathematical problems at varying levels of difficulty and domains. Despite limitations of the tools at the time for autoformalization, participants tended to attain higher formalization accuracy when allowed access to AI tools than when formalizing on their own, with most participants flexibly choosing to use multiple different AI tools. Taken together, our work sheds light on the early stages of AI integration into formalization workflows, involving an intimate interplay of human agency and AI engagement.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

InfoAtlas: A Foundation Model for Zero-Shot Statistical Dependence Estimate

Measuring statistical dependency between high-dimensional random variables is a fundamental task in data science and machine learning. Neural mutual information (MI) estimators offer a promising avenue, but they typically require costly iterative optimization for each new dataset, making them impractical for real-time applications. We present InfoAtlas, a foundation model-like architecture that eliminates this bottleneck by directly inferring MI in a single forward pass. Pretrained on large-scale synthetic data with rich dependence patterns, InfoAtlas learns to identify diverse dependence structures and predict MI directly from the dataset. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that InfoAtlas matches state-of-the-art neural estimators in accuracy while achieving $100\times$ speedup, can flexibly handle varying dimensions and sample sizes through a single unified model, and generalizes effectively to complex, real-world scenarios. By reformulating MI estimation as an inference task, InfoAtlas establishes a foundation for real-time dependency analysis.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Interactive Evaluation Requires a Design Science

AI evaluation is undergoing a structural change. Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as systems that act over time through tools, environments, users, and other agents, while many evaluation practices still inherit assumptions from response-centered benchmarks (e.g., fixed inputs, isolated outputs, and outcome judgments that can be made from a single response). The field has begun to build interactive benchmarks, but the resulting landscape is fragmented: benchmarks differ in what interaction artifacts they admit, how trajectories are scored, and what claims their results support. This position paper argues that interactive evaluation should be treated as a principled evaluation paradigm, not merely a new family of agent benchmarks. Simply adopting previous evaluation paradigms does not suffice. We define evaluation as an autonomous mapping from evidence to judgments, and show that interactive evaluation changes both sides of this mapping: the evidence becomes interaction-generated trajectories, while the evaluation procedure must assess process, recoverability, coordination, robustness, and system-level performance. Building on this definition, we propose a two-axis taxonomy, derive design principles and reporting standards, examine representative scenarios, and analyze how longstanding evaluation challenges reappear at the trajectory level.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Medical Model Synthesis Architectures: A Case Study

Medicine is rife with high-stakes uncertainty. Doctors routinely make clinical judgments and decisions that juggle many fundamental unknowns, like predictions about what might be causing a patients' symptoms or decisions about what treatment to try next. Despite increasing interest in developing AI systems that aid or even replace doctors in clinical settings, current systems struggle with calibrated reasoning under uncertainty, and are often deeply opaque about their reasoning. We propose a framework for AI systems that can make practically useful but formally transparent clinical predictions under uncertainty. Given a clinical situation, our framework (MedMSA) uses language models to retrieve relevant prior knowledge, but constructs a formal probabilistic model to support calibrated and verifiable inferences under uncertainty. We show how an initial proof-of-concept of this framework can be used for differential diagnosis, producing an uncertainty-weighted list of potential diagnoses that could explain a patients' symptoms, and discuss future applications and directions for applying this framework more generally for safe clinical collaborations.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

POET-X: Memory-efficient LLM Training by Scaling Orthogonal Transformation

Efficient and stable training of large language models (LLMs) remains a core challenge in modern machine learning systems. To address this challenge, Reparameterized Orthogonal Equivalence Training (POET), a spectrum-preserving framework that optimizes each weight matrix through orthogonal equivalence transformation, has been proposed. Although POET provides strong training stability, its original implementation incurs high memory consumption and computational overhead due to intensive matrix multiplications. To overcome these limitations, we introduce POET-X, a scalable and memory-efficient variant that performs orthogonal equivalence transformations with significantly reduced computational cost. POET-X maintains the generalization and stability benefits of POET while achieving substantial improvements in throughput and memory efficiency. In our experiments, POET-X enables the pretraining of billion-parameter LLMs on a single Nvidia H100 GPU, and in contrast, standard optimizers such as AdamW run out of memory under the same settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Use What You Know: Causal Foundation Models with Partial Graphs

Estimating causal quantities traditionally relies on bespoke estimators tailored to specific assumptions. Recently proposed Causal Foundation Models (CFMs) promise a more unified approach by amortising causal discovery and inference in a single step. However, in their current state, they do not allow for the incorporation of any domain knowledge, which can lead to suboptimal predictions. We bridge this gap by introducing methods to condition CFMs on causal information, such as the causal graph or more readily available ancestral information. When access to complete causal graph information is too strict a requirement, our approach also effectively leverages partial causal information. We systematically evaluate conditioning strategies and find that injecting learnable biases into the attention mechanism, together with a graph-convolutional encoder, is a highly effective method to utilise full and partial causal information. Our experiments show that this conditioning allows a general-purpose CFM to match the performance of specialised models trained on specific causal structures. Overall, our approach addresses a central hurdle on the path towards all-in-one causal foundation models: the capability to answer causal queries in a data-driven manner while effectively leveraging any amount of domain expertise.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Position: Capability Control Should be a Separate Goal From Alignment

Foundation models are trained on broad data distributions, yielding generalist capabilities that enable many downstream applications but also expand the space of potential misuse and failures. This position paper argues that capability control -- imposing restrictions on permissible model behavior -- should be treated as a distinct goal from alignment. While alignment is often context and preference-driven, capability control aims to impose hard operational limits on permissible behaviors, including under adversarial elicitation. We organize capability control mechanisms across the model lifecycle into three layers: (i) data-based control of the training distribution, (ii) learning-based control via weight- or representation-level interventions, and (iii) system-based control via post-deployment guardrails over inputs, outputs, and actions. Because each layer has characteristic failure modes when used in isolation, we advocate for a defense-in-depth approach that composes complementary controls across the full stack. We further outline key open challenges in achieving such control, including the dual-use nature of knowledge and compositional generalization.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Frontier AI Auditing: Toward Rigorous Third-Party Assessment of Safety and Security Practices at Leading AI Companies

We outline a vision for frontier AI auditing, which we define as rigorous third-party verification of frontier AI developers' safety and security claims, and evaluation of their systems and practices against relevant standards, based on deep, secure access to non-public information. Frontier AI audits should not be limited to a company's publicly deployed products, but should instead consider the full range of organization-level safety and security risks, including internal deployment of AI systems, information security practices, and safety decision-making processes. We describe four AI Assurance Levels (AALs), the higher levels of which provide greater confidence in audit findings. We recommend AAL-1 as a baseline for frontier AI generally, and AAL-2 as a near-term goal for the most advanced subset of frontier AI developers. Achieving the vision we outline will require (1) ensuring high quality standards for frontier AI auditing, so it does not devolve into a checkbox exercise or lag behind changes in the industry; (2) growing the ecosystem of audit providers at a rapid pace without compromising quality; (3) accelerating adoption of frontier AI auditing by clarifying and strengthening incentives; and (4) achieving technical readiness for high AI Assurance Levels so they can be applied when needed.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

A Matter of Interest: Understanding Interestingness of Math Problems in Humans and Language Models

The evolution of mathematics is shaped importantly by interestingness: researchers choose which problems to pursue, and students choose which problems to engage with, based on expectations of interest and challenge. As AI systems, particularly large language models (LLMs) that operate flexibly over natural language and formal mathematics, are increasingly used in mathematics research and education, it becomes crucial to characterize how closely their judgments align with people from different mathematical backgrounds. We study whether LLMs align with human interestingness judgments by comparing LLM ratings with those of two populations, crowdsourced participants with college math experience and International Math Olympiad competitors. Although many LLMs broadly agree with human notions of interestingness, they largely fail to match the distribution of human judgments. They also weakly align with why humans find problems interesting, with low correlation to human-selected rationales. Finally, we evaluate LLMs' ability to generate interesting problems and find that, after filtering for validity, LLMs are able to generate engaging problems. We conclude with takeaways, including the need for multi-LLM human-AI collaborative systems, that highlight both the promise and current limits of LLMs as partners in mathematical reasoning.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Neural Mutual Information Estimation with Vector Copulas

Estimating mutual information (MI) is a fundamental task in data science and machine learning. Existing estimators mainly rely on either highly flexible models (e.g., neural networks), which require large amounts of data, or overly simplified models (e.g., Gaussian copula), which fail to capture complex distributions. Drawing upon recent vector copula theory, we propose a principled interpolation between these two extremes to achieve a better trade-off between complexity and capacity. Experiments on state-of-the-art synthetic benchmarks and real-world data with diverse modalities demonstrate the advantages of the proposed estimator.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Evaluating Language Models' Evaluations of Games

Reasoning is not just about solving problems -- it is also about evaluating which problems are worth solving at all. Evaluations of artificial intelligence (AI) systems primarily focused on problem solving, historically by studying how models play games such as chess and Go. In this paper, we advocate for a new paradigm that assesses AI systems' evaluation of games. First, we introduce a formalism for evaluating such evaluations. We then leverage a large-scale dataset of over 100 novel board games and over 450 human judgments to compare evaluations produced by modern language and reasoning models against those of people and symbolic computational agents. We consider two kinds of evaluative queries: assessing the payoff (or fairness) and the funness of games. These queries span two dimensions relevant to the design of evaluations of AI evaluations: how complex a query is to compute and how difficult a query is to quantify. Our results show that reasoning models are generally more aligned to people in their evaluations of games than non-reasoning language models. However, we observe a non-monotonic relationship: as models get closer to game-theoretic optimal, their fit to human data weakens. We also observe more "jaggedness" across models for assessing funness, in line with the greater difficulty of quantifying this query. Across queries and games, reasoning models show highly variable and unpredictable resource usage when assessing queries, pointing to the importance of imbuing more resource-rational meta-reasoning in language and reasoning models.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

People use fast and flat simulation to reason about new games

Games have long been a microcosm for studying planning and reasoning in both natural and artificial intelligence (AI), often focusing on expert-level or even super-human play. But real life also pushes human intelligence along a different frontier, requiring people to flexibly navigate decision-making problems that they have never thought about before. Here, we use novice gameplay to study how people reason about new problem settings. Through a series of large-scale behavioral studies with over 1000 participants and 121 two-player strategic board games (almost all novel to our participants), we show that people are systematic and adaptively rational in how they play a game for the first time, or evaluate a game (e.g., how fair or how fun it is likely to be) before they have played it even once. We explain these capacities via a computational cognitive model that we call the 'Intuitive Gamer', a model based on mechanisms of fast and flat (depth-limited) goal-directed probabilistic simulation. Our work offers new insights into how people rapidly evaluate, act, and make suggestions when encountering novel problems, and could inform the design of more flexible and human-like AI systems that can determine not just how to solve new tasks, but whether a task is worth thinking about at all.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2025

ExoPredicator: Learning Abstract Models of Dynamic Worlds for Robot Planning

Long-horizon embodied planning is challenging because the world does not only change through an agent's actions: exogenous processes (e.g., water heating, dominoes cascading) unfold concurrently with the agent's actions. We propose a framework for abstract world models that jointly learns (i) symbolic state representations and (ii) causal processes for both endogenous actions and exogenous mechanisms. Each causal process models the time course of a stochastic cause-effect relation. We learn these world models from limited data via variational Bayesian inference combined with LLM proposals. Across five simulated tabletop robotics environments, the learned models enable fast planning that generalizes to held-out tasks with more objects and more complex goals, outperforming a range of baselines.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Rotary Position Encodings for Graphs

We study the extent to which rotary position encodings (RoPE), a recent transformer position encoding algorithm broadly adopted in large language models (LLMs) and vision transformers (ViTs), can be applied to graph-structured data. We find that rotating tokens depending on the spectrum of the graph Laplacian efficiently injects structural information into the attention mechanism, boosting performance in synthetic and real-world graph learning tasks. This approach, coined _Wave-Induced Rotary Encodings_ (WIRE), enjoys intriguing theoretical properties: it recovers regular RoPE on grids, and depends asymptotically on the graph effective resistance. Unlike bias-based relative position encodings, WIRE is compatible with linear attention.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Graph Random Features for Scalable Gaussian Processes

We study the application of graph random features (GRFs) - a recently introduced stochastic estimator of graph node kernels - to scalable Gaussian processes on discrete input spaces. We prove that (under mild assumptions) Bayesian inference with GRFs enjoys $O(N^{3/2})$ time complexity with respect to the number of nodes $N$, compared to $O(N^3)$ for exact kernels. Substantial wall-clock speedups and memory savings unlock Bayesian optimisation on graphs with over $10^6$ nodes on a single computer chip, whilst preserving competitive performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Documenting Deployment with Fabric: A Repository of Real-World AI Governance

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly integrated into society, from financial services and traffic management to creative writing. Academic literature on the deployment of AI has mostly focused on the risks and harms that result from the use of AI. We introduce Fabric, a publicly available repository of deployed AI use cases to outline their governance mechanisms. Through semi-structured interviews with practitioners, we collect an initial set of 20 AI use cases. In addition, we co-design diagrams of the AI workflow with the practitioners. We discuss the oversight mechanisms and guardrails used in practice to safeguard AI use. The Fabric repository includes visual diagrams of AI use cases and descriptions of the deployed systems. Using the repository, we surface gaps in governance and find common patterns in human oversight of deployed AI systems. We intend for Fabric to serve as an extendable, evolving tool for researchers to study the effectiveness of AI governance.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Unequal Uncertainty: Rethinking Algorithmic Interventions for Mitigating Discrimination from AI

Uncertainty in artificial intelligence (AI) predictions raises pressing legal and ethical questions for AI-assisted decision-making. This article examines two uncertainty-based algorithmic interventions that act as guardrails for human-AI interaction: selective abstention, which withholds high-uncertainty predictions from human decision-makers, and selective friction, which presents such predictions together with salient warnings about the model's uncertainty. Prior work suggests that uncertainty-based abstention can exacerbate disparities where under-represented groups are more likely to receive uncertain predictions. We provide, to our knowledge, the first doctrinal analysis of uncertainty-based algorithmic interventions under laws from the United Kingdom and examine their consequences through two AI-assisted case studies: consumer credit and risk of reoffending. We show that the use of uncertainty thresholds, though formally neutral, can generate discriminatory effects. We argue that both interventions pose risks of unlawful discrimination, but that selective friction is legally preferable. It preserves access to the prediction and is more likely to satisfy proportionality under the Equality Act 2010. Whether selective friction also improves decision quality in practice is uncertain. We identify conditions under which it may improve or worsen decision quality.

cs.CY↗