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Adrian Yao

Publications and source records attributed to Adrian Yao.

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Securing the supply of graphite for batteries

Surging demand for graphite in energy storage applications has led to concerns about supply chai security for manufacturers and nations globally. Currently, China produces over 92% of graphite for anodes, posing a risk for industries reliant on graphite supply. Here, we systematically assess the costs of producing natural and synthetic battery-grade graphite in the U.S. and China using process-based cost models. We find that production costs in the U.S. are higher than those in China by 100-200%, so scaling production in the short-term will require significant policy support. We use our models to explore opportunities to improve the competitiveness of graphite production outside China, finding that lower financing rates and improved shaping yields can together reduce costs by 25-30%. Further implementing other cost reduction strategies, such as improving process throughput or lowering equipment costs, can achieve 35-40% lower costs. Finally, we discuss how innovative graphite production processes like methane pyrolysis and catalytic graphitization may provide competitive pathways.

econ.GN

How quickly can sodium-ion learn? Assessing scenarios for techno-economic competitiveness against lithium-ion batteries

Sodium-ion batteries have garnered significant attention as a potentially low-cost alternative to lithium-ion batteries, which have experienced supply shortages and pricing volatility of key minerals. Here we assess their techno-economic competitiveness against incumbent lithium-ion batteries using a modeling framework incorporating componential learning curves constrained by minerals prices and engineering design floors. We compare projected sodium-ion and lithium-ion price trends across over 6,000 scenarios while varying Na-ion technology development roadmaps, supply chain scenarios, market penetration, and learning rates. Assuming substantial progress can be made along technology roadmaps via targeted R&D, we identify many sodium-ion pathways that might reach cost-competitiveness with low-cost lithium-ion variants in the early 2030s. Additionally, we show timelines are highly sensitive to movements in critical minerals supply chains -- namely that of lithium, graphite, and nickel. Modeled outcomes suggest increasing sodium-ion energy densities to decrease materials intensity to be among the most impactful ways to improve competitiveness.

physics.chem-ph