arXiv subjects

Adrien Petralia

Publications and source records attributed to Adrien Petralia.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

LoaDiff: Conditional Generation of Electricity Consumption Time Series for Energy Analytics

The energy transition is reshaping residential electricity consumption through the increasing adoption of distributed generation, electrified appliances, and demand-response programs. Understanding these evolving behaviors requires access to granular smart-meter data for applications such as load forecasting, appliance detection, and demand-side flexibility analysis. However, such data are subject to strict access restrictions and data-protection regulations. Thus, realistic synthetic alternatives are necessary. In this paper, we introduce LoaDiff, a diffusion-based generative model for year-long, sub-hourly smart-meter load curves. LoaDiff supports flexible conditioning on static household attributes, such as appliance ownership, and dynamic contextual variables, including calendar information and outdoor temperature. We evaluate the model against multiple generative baselines on three residential electricity-consumption datasets. Our experiments assess four complementary dimensions: fidelity and diversity, training-record memorization risk, downstream utility for load forecasting and appliance detection, and conditional controllability under alternative temperature conditions. The results show that LoaDiff generates realistic and diverse load profiles, achieves a favorable trade-off between generation quality and limited evidence of memorization, preserves information useful for downstream energy applications, and responds coherently to changes in conditioning variables.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Shieldstral

We introduce Shieldstral, a 3B-parameter policy-adaptive multimodal safety classifier that matches or outperforms models nearly 7$\times$ its size on text safety benchmarks and sets a new state of the art on multimodal safety classification. Shieldstral formulates content moderation as a binary question-answering task. This simple formulation unifies diverse moderation tasks into a single yes/no problem, enabling heterogeneous safety datasets with divergent taxonomies to be consolidated under one training framework. We present the data construction recipe, covering curation and generation of approximately 54.1M samples and a fine-grained evaluation set to evaluate policy adaptability. Together, these enable a small adaptive model to match or outperform much larger models.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Robostral Navigate

Deploying navigation systems at scale requires a recipe that minimizes sensor assumptions, generalizes across robot embodiments, and trains efficiently. Yet, today's best systems depend on depth sensors, multi-camera rigs, or pre-built maps, limiting the hardware they support and increasing deployment cost. We introduce Robostral Navigate, an 8B vision-language model built around this scalability objective. The model consumes only a stream of monocular RGB images - the most ubiquitous sensor across robotic platforms and predicts waypoints by pointing to the next target location in the current camera view. Operating purely in image space, rather than robot-specific coordinates, makes the policy naturally robust to changes in camera intrinsics and scene scale, enabling deployment across wheeled, legged, and aerial robots without recalibration. We generate 2.4 million trajectories across 350k simulated scenes to reduce the reliance on real-world data collection and scale easily. We further introduce a prefix-caching training recipe that packs entire episodes into single training sequences, reducing training tokens by 22x and cutting training time from months to days. A tree-based attention mask prevents conditioning on previous ground-truth actions, encouraging visually grounded action prediction, and reinforcement learning is used to further improve exploration and recovery capabilities. On the Room-to-Room and Room-Across-Room in Continuous Environments (R2R-CE and RxR-CE) benchmarks, Robostral Navigate sets a new state of the art. On R2R-CE, it achieves a 77.4% success rate, surpassing the best monocular method by 10.5 points and the strongest depth- or multi-camera system by 5.3 points despite using only a single RGB camera. On RxR-CE, it reaches 75.1% success rate, outperforming all monocular baselines.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

TS-ICL: A Flexible Time-Indexed Foundation Model for Time Series via In-Context Learning

Foundation models mark a profound paradigm shift in time series modeling, with task-specific models being superseded by general-purpose zero-shot models. Yet, current approaches primarily focus on forecasting, while real-world time series are often irregularly and partially observed, requiring models that can jointly forecast, impute missing values, and handle degraded sampling conditions. To address these challenges, we introduce TS-ICL, a novel probabilistic In-Context Learning encoder--regressor Transformer that unifies forecasting and imputation. TS-ICL formulates time series tasks as timestamp-aligned regression and naturally incorporates covariates by training on synthetic dependency structures generated from a novel causal data prior. Empirically, TS-ICL achieves a new state-of-the-art in imputation, while remaining competitive with leading forecasting foundation models across both univariate and covariate-aware benchmarks. It shows particularly strong performance in forecasting with partially observed look-back windows.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Investigating simple target-covariate relationships for Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance, often outperforming supervised models in zero-shot settings. Recent TSFM architectures, such as Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS, aim to integrate covariates. In this paper, we design controlled experiments based on simple target-covariate relationships to assess this integration capability. Our results show that TabPFN-TS captures these relationships more effectively than Chronos-2, especially for short horizons, suggesting that the strong benchmark performance of Chronos-2 does not automatically translate into optimal modeling of simple covariate-target dependencies.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Are Time-Indexed Foundation Models the Future of Time Series Imputation?

Foundation models for time series imputation remain largely unexplored. Recently, two such models, TabPFN-TS and MoTM, have emerged. These models share a common philosophy that places them within the family of time-indexed foundation models. This paper presents the first large-scale empirical study of these models for zero-shot imputation, which enables missing value recovery without retraining across a wide range of scenarios. We conduct extensive univariate experiments across 33 out-of-domain datasets (approximately 1.3M imputation windows) and evaluate their ability to integrate covariates at inference time to improve accuracy without fine-tuning. Our results demonstrate that time-indexed foundation models are a powerful and practical step toward achieving general-purpose, zero-shot imputation for real-world time series.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Few Labels are all you need: A Weakly Supervised Framework for Appliance Localization in Smart-Meter Series

Improving smart grid system management is crucial in the fight against climate change, and enabling consumers to play an active role in this effort is a significant challenge for electricity suppliers. In this regard, millions of smart meters have been deployed worldwide in the last decade, recording the main electricity power consumed in individual households. This data produces valuable information that can help them reduce their electricity footprint; nevertheless, the collected signal aggregates the consumption of the different appliances running simultaneously in the house, making it difficult to apprehend. Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) refers to the challenge of estimating the power consumption, pattern, or on/off state activation of individual appliances using the main smart meter signal. Recent methods proposed to tackle this task are based on a fully supervised deep-learning approach that requires both the aggregate signal and the ground truth of individual appliance power. However, such labels are expensive to collect and extremely scarce in practice, as they require conducting intrusive surveys in households to monitor each appliance. In this paper, we introduce CamAL, a weakly supervised approach for appliance pattern localization that only requires information on the presence of an appliance in a household to be trained. CamAL merges an ensemble of deep-learning classifiers combined with an explainable classification method to be able to localize appliance patterns. Our experimental evaluation, conducted on 4 real-world datasets, demonstrates that CamAL significantly outperforms existing weakly supervised baselines and that current SotA fully supervised NILM approaches require significantly more labels to reach CamAL performances. The source of our experiments is available at: https://github.com/adrienpetralia/CamAL. This paper appeared in ICDE 2025.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

DeviceScope: An Interactive App to Detect and Localize Appliance Patterns in Electricity Consumption Time Series

In recent years, electricity suppliers have installed millions of smart meters worldwide to improve the management of the smart grid system. These meters collect a large amount of electrical consumption data to produce valuable information to help consumers reduce their electricity footprint. However, having non-expert users (e.g., consumers or sales advisors) understand these data and derive usage patterns for different appliances has become a significant challenge for electricity suppliers because these data record the aggregated behavior of all appliances. At the same time, ground-truth labels (which could train appliance detection and localization models) are expensive to collect and extremely scarce in practice. This paper introduces DeviceScope, an interactive tool designed to facilitate understanding smart meter data by detecting and localizing individual appliance patterns within a given time period. Our system is based on CamAL (Class Activation Map-based Appliance Localization), a novel weakly supervised approach for appliance localization that only requires the knowledge of the existence of an appliance in a household to be trained. This paper appeared in ICDE 2025.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

NILMFormer: Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring that Accounts for Non-Stationarity

Millions of smart meters have been deployed worldwide, collecting the total power consumed by individual households. Based on these data, electricity suppliers offer their clients energy monitoring solutions to provide feedback on the consumption of their individual appliances. Historically, such estimates have relied on statistical methods that use coarse-grained total monthly consumption and static customer data, such as appliance ownership. Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is the problem of disaggregating a household's collected total power consumption to retrieve the consumed power for individual appliances. Current state-of-the-art (SotA) solutions for NILM are based on deep-learning (DL) and operate on subsequences of an entire household consumption reading. However, the non-stationary nature of real-world smart meter data leads to a drift in the data distribution within each segmented window, which significantly affects model performance. This paper introduces NILMFormer, a Transformer-based architecture that incorporates a new subsequence stationarization/de-stationarization scheme to mitigate the distribution drift and that uses a novel positional encoding that relies only on the subsequence's timestamp information. Experiments with 4 real-world datasets show that NILMFormer significantly outperforms the SotA approaches. Our solution has been deployed as the backbone algorithm for EDF's (Electricité De France) consumption monitoring service, delivering detailed insights to millions of customers about their individual appliances' power consumption. This paper appeared in KDD 2025.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

ADF & TransApp: A Transformer-Based Framework for Appliance Detection Using Smart Meter Consumption Series

Over the past decade, millions of smart meters have been installed by electricity suppliers worldwide, allowing them to collect a large amount of electricity consumption data, albeit sampled at a low frequency (one point every 30min). One of the important challenges these suppliers face is how to utilize these data to detect the presence/absence of different appliances in the customers' households. This valuable information can help them provide personalized offers and recommendations to help customers towards the energy transition. Appliance detection can be cast as a time series classification problem. However, the large amount of data combined with the long and variable length of the consumption series pose challenges when training a classifier. In this paper, we propose ADF, a framework that uses subsequences of a client consumption series to detect the presence/absence of appliances. We also introduce TransApp, a Transformer-based time series classifier that is first pretrained in a self-supervised way to enhance its performance on appliance detection tasks. We test our approach on two real datasets, including a publicly available one. The experimental results with two large real datasets show that the proposed approach outperforms current solutions, including state-of-the-art time series classifiers applied to appliance detection. This paper appeared in VLDB 2024.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2023

Appliance Detection Using Very Low-Frequency Smart Meter Time Series

In recent years, smart meters have been widely adopted by electricity suppliers to improve the management of the smart grid system. These meters usually collect energy consumption data at a very low frequency (every 30min), enabling utilities to bill customers more accurately. To provide more personalized recommendations, the next step is to detect the appliances owned by customers, which is a challenging problem, due to the very-low meter reading frequency. Even though the appliance detection problem can be cast as a time series classification problem, with many such classifiers having been proposed in the literature, no study has applied and compared them on this specific problem. This paper presents an in-depth evaluation and comparison of state-of-the-art time series classifiers applied to detecting the presence/absence of diverse appliances in very low-frequency smart meter data. We report results with five real datasets. We first study the impact of the detection quality of 13 different appliances using 30min sampled data, and we subsequently propose an analysis of the possible detection performance gain by using a higher meter reading frequency. The results indicate that the performance of current time series classifiers varies significantly. Some of them, namely deep learning-based classifiers, provide promising results in terms of accuracy (especially for certain appliances), even using 30min sampled data, and are scalable to the large smart meter time series collections of energy consumption data currently available to electricity suppliers. Nevertheless, our study shows that more work is needed in this area to further improve the accuracy of the proposed solutions. This paper appeared in ACM e-Energy 2023.

eess.SP↗