arXiv subjects

Adrienne C. Kinney

Publications and source records attributed to Adrienne C. Kinney.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Crowd-Sourced Geographies of Income: Using Google Maps Points of Interest as High-Frequency Proxies for Sub-Municipal Income Estimation in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Accurate, up-to-date income data at the sub-municipal scale is essential for social policy in middle-income countries, yet in Brazil it depends on a costly decennial census whose intercensal gap recently exceeded a decade. We test whether the composition of crowd-sourced Google Maps Points of Interest (POIs) can serve as a high-frequency, low-cost proxy for household income across the 26,625 census sectors of the municipality of Sao Paulo. Using a theoretically motivated set of POI categories retrieved from Google Places, we represent each sector by its POI counts, decompose these high-dimensional, sparse features with principal component analysis (PCA) and non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), and train a sweep of regression models to predict census-derived income. Under a data leakage-aware spatial validation design the best model (NMF with gradient boosting) attains a held-out R^2 of 0.65, with performance stable across feature-extraction methods. Interpretable decompositions reveal which POI types carry the income signal. These results suggest that commercial, crowd-sourced geospatial data can complement conventional income statistics during intercensal periods, and we discuss extensions toward multidimensional poverty and the capabilities framework.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Rapid and accurate mosquito abundance forecasting with Aedes-AI neural networks

We present a method to convert weather data into probabilistic forecasts of Aedes aegypti abundance. The approach, which relies on the Aedes-AI suite of neural networks, produces weekly point predictions with corresponding uncertainty estimates. Once calibrated on past trap and weather data, the model is designed to use weather forecasts to estimate future trap catches. We demonstrate that when reliable input data are used, the resulting predictions have high skill. This technique may therefore be used to supplement vector surveillance efforts or identify periods of elevated risk for vector-borne disease outbreaks.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Aedes-AI: Neural Network Models of Mosquito Abundance

We present artificial neural networks as a feasible replacement for a mechanistic model of mosquito abundance. We develop a feed-forward neural network, a long short-term memory recurrent neural network, and a gated recurrent unit network. We evaluate the networks in their ability to replicate the spatiotemporal features of mosquito populations predicted by the mechanistic model, and discuss how augmenting the training data with time series that emphasize specific dynamical behaviors affects model performance. We conclude with an outlook on how such equation-free models may facilitate vector control or the estimation of disease risk at arbitrary spatial scales.

q-bio.PE↗