arXiv subjects

Agam Shah

Publications and source records attributed to Agam Shah.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Credit Cards, Confusion, Computation, and Consequences: What Can We Uncover About Language Model Reasoning?

We introduce CreditCardQA, the first financial literacy benchmark for numerical reasoning derived from real credit card agreements. The dataset contains 1,800 questions, including first-person variants that reflect how consumers naturally ask about fees, interest, and payments. We evaluate a range of large language and reasoning models under Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and Program-of-Thought (PoT) prompting. Overall, PoT yields consistent performance gains, particularly for models with weaker baseline reasoning, and narrows gaps between open- and closed-source systems. Through error analysis, we show that failures arise less from arithmetic and more from misapplied financial rules, missed conditions, and misunderstandings of contractual terms. We further analyze question difficulty and find that comparisons, conditional logic, and monetary constraints are especially challenging. We also find that errors often arise in edge cases such as late-payment penalties or small-balance scenarios that are more likely to affect lower-income or financially vulnerable individuals.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

VideoConviction: A Multimodal Benchmark for Human Conviction and Stock Market Recommendations

Social media has amplified the reach of financial influencers known as "finfluencers," who share stock recommendations on platforms like YouTube. Understanding their influence requires analyzing multimodal signals like tone, delivery style, and facial expressions, which extend beyond text-based financial analysis. We introduce VideoConviction, a multimodal dataset with 6,000+ expert annotations, produced through 457 hours of human effort, to benchmark multimodal large language models (MLLMs) and text-based large language models (LLMs) in financial discourse. Our results show that while multimodal inputs improve stock ticker extraction (e.g., extracting Apple's ticker AAPL), both MLLMs and LLMs struggle to distinguish investment actions and conviction--the strength of belief conveyed through confident delivery and detailed reasoning--often misclassifying general commentary as definitive recommendations. While high-conviction recommendations perform better than low-conviction ones, they still underperform the popular S\&P 500 index fund. An inverse strategy--betting against finfluencer recommendations--outperforms the S\&P 500 by 6.8\% in annual returns but carries greater risk (Sharpe ratio of 0.41 vs. 0.65). Our benchmark enables a diverse evaluation of multimodal tasks, comparing model performance on both full video and segmented video inputs. This enables deeper advancements in multimodal financial research. Our code, dataset, and evaluation leaderboard are available under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license.

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arXiv2025

Calibrating Pre-trained Language Classifiers on LLM-generated Noisy Labels via Iterative Refinement

The traditional process of creating labeled datasets is labor-intensive and expensive. Recent breakthroughs in open-source large language models (LLMs) have opened up a new avenue in generating labeled datasets automatically for various natural language processing (NLP) tasks, providing an alternative to such an expensive annotation process. However, the reliability of such auto-generated labels remains a significant concern due to inherent inaccuracies. When learning from noisy labels, the model's generalization is likely to be harmed as it is prone to overfit to those label noises. While previous studies in learning from noisy labels mainly focus on synthetic noise and real-world noise, LLM-generated label noise receives less attention. In this paper, we propose SiDyP: Simplex Label Diffusion with Dynamic Prior to calibrate the classifier's prediction, thus enhancing its robustness towards LLM-generated noisy labels. SiDyP retrieves potential true label candidates by neighborhood label distribution in text embedding space and iteratively refines noisy candidates using a simplex diffusion model. Our framework can increase the performance of the BERT classifier fine-tuned on both zero-shot and few-shot LLM-generated noisy label datasets by an average of 7.21% and 7.30% respectively. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SiDyP by conducting extensive benchmarking for different LLMs over a variety of NLP tasks. Our code is available on Github.

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arXiv2025

KG-MuLQA: A Framework for KG-based Multi-Level QA Extraction and Long-Context LLM Evaluation

We introduce KG-MuLQA (Knowledge-Graph-based Multi-Level Question-Answer Extraction): a framework that (1) extracts QA pairs at multiple complexity levels (2) along three key dimensions -- multi-hop retrieval, set operations, and answer plurality, (3) by leveraging knowledge-graph-based document representations. This approach enables fine-grained assessment of model performance across controlled difficulty levels. Using this framework, we construct a dataset of 20,139 QA pairs based on financial credit agreements and evaluate 16 proprietary and open-weight Large Language Models, observing that even the best-performing models struggle with set-based comparisons and multi-hop reasoning over long contexts. Our analysis reveals systematic failure modes tied to semantic misinterpretation and inability to handle implicit relations.

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arXiv2025

Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Central Bank Communications Globally

Central banks around the world play a crucial role in maintaining economic stability. Deciphering policy implications in their communications is essential, especially as misinterpretations can disproportionately impact vulnerable populations. To address this, we introduce the World Central Banks (WCB) dataset, the most comprehensive monetary policy corpus to date, comprising over 380k sentences from 25 central banks across diverse geographic regions, spanning 28 years of historical data. After uniformly sampling 1k sentences per bank (25k total) across all available years, we annotate and review each sentence using dual annotators, disagreement resolutions, and secondary expert reviews. We define three tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty Estimation, with each sentence annotated for all three. We benchmark seven Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) and nine Large Language Models (LLMs) (Zero-Shot, Few-Shot, and with annotation guide) on these tasks, running 15,075 benchmarking experiments. We find that a model trained on aggregated data across banks significantly surpasses a model trained on an individual bank's data, confirming the principle "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts." Additionally, rigorous human evaluations, error analyses, and predictive tasks validate our framework's economic utility. Our artifacts are accessible through the HuggingFace and GitHub under the CC-BY-NC-SA 4.0 license.

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arXiv2025

Language Modeling for the Future of Finance: A Survey into Metrics, Tasks, and Data Opportunities

Recent advances in language modeling have led to a growing number of papers related to finance in top-tier Natural Language Processing (NLP) venues. To systematically examine this trend, we review 374 NLP research papers published between 2017 and 2024 across 38 conferences and workshops, with a focused analysis of 221 papers that directly address finance-related tasks. We evaluate these papers across 11 quantitative and qualitative dimensions, and our study identifies the following opportunities for NLP researchers: (i) expanding the scope of forecasting tasks; (ii) enriching evaluation with financial metrics; (iii) leveraging multilingual and crisis-period datasets; and (iv) balancing PLMs with efficient or interpretable alternatives. We identify actionable directions supported by dataset and tool recommendations, with implications for both the academia and industry communities.

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arXiv2025

Beyond the Reported Cutoff: Where Large Language Models Fall Short on Financial Knowledge

Large Language Models (LLMs) are frequently utilized as sources of knowledge for question-answering. While it is known that LLMs may lack access to real-time data or newer data produced after the model's cutoff date, it is less clear how their knowledge spans across historical information. In this study, we assess the breadth of LLMs' knowledge using financial data of U.S. publicly traded companies by evaluating more than 197k questions and comparing model responses to factual data. We further explore the impact of company characteristics, such as size, retail investment, institutional attention, and readability of financial filings, on the accuracy of knowledge represented in LLMs. Our results reveal that LLMs are less informed about past financial performance, but they display a stronger awareness of larger companies and more recent information. Interestingly, at the same time, our analysis also reveals that LLMs are more likely to hallucinate for larger companies, especially for data from more recent years. The code, prompts, and model outputs are available on GitHub.

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arXiv2025

Exploring Topic Trends in COVID-19 Research Literature using Non-Negative Matrix Factorization

In this work, we apply topic modeling using Non-Negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) on the COVID-19 Open Research Dataset (CORD-19) to uncover the underlying thematic structure and its evolution within the extensive body of COVID-19 research literature. NMF factorizes the document-term matrix into two non-negative matrices, effectively representing the topics and their distribution across the documents. This helps us see how strongly documents relate to topics and how topics relate to words. We describe the complete methodology which involves a series of rigorous pre-processing steps to standardize the available text data while preserving the context of phrases, and subsequently feature extraction using the term frequency-inverse document frequency (tf-idf), which assigns weights to words based on their frequency and rarity in the dataset. To ensure the robustness of our topic model, we conduct a stability analysis. This process assesses the stability scores of the NMF topic model for different numbers of topics, enabling us to select the optimal number of topics for our analysis. Through our analysis, we track the evolution of topics over time within the CORD-19 dataset. Our findings contribute to the understanding of the knowledge structure of the COVID-19 research landscape, providing a valuable resource for future research in this field.

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arXiv2025

How Inclusively do LMs Perceive Social and Moral Norms?

This paper discusses and contains offensive content. Language models (LMs) are used in decision-making systems and as interactive assistants. However, how well do these models making judgements align with the diversity of human values, particularly regarding social and moral norms? In this work, we investigate how inclusively LMs perceive norms across demographic groups (e.g., gender, age, and income). We prompt 11 LMs on rules-of-thumb (RoTs) and compare their outputs with the existing responses of 100 human annotators. We introduce the Absolute Distance Alignment Metric (ADA-Met) to quantify alignment on ordinal questions. We find notable disparities in LM responses, with younger, higher-income groups showing closer alignment, raising concerns about the representation of marginalized perspectives. Our findings highlight the importance of further efforts to make LMs more inclusive of diverse human values. The code and prompts are available on GitHub under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license.

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arXiv2024

SubjECTive-QA: Measuring Subjectivity in Earnings Call Transcripts' QA Through Six-Dimensional Feature Analysis

Fact-checking is extensively studied in the context of misinformation and disinformation, addressing objective inaccuracies. However, a softer form of misinformation involves responses that are factually correct but lack certain features such as clarity and relevance. This challenge is prevalent in formal Question-Answer (QA) settings such as press conferences in finance, politics, sports, and other domains, where subjective answers can obscure transparency. Despite this, there is a lack of manually annotated datasets for subjective features across multiple dimensions. To address this gap, we introduce SubjECTive-QA, a human annotated dataset on Earnings Call Transcripts' (ECTs) QA sessions as the answers given by company representatives are often open to subjective interpretations and scrutiny. The dataset includes 49,446 annotations for long-form QA pairs across six features: Assertive, Cautious, Optimistic, Specific, Clear, and Relevant. These features are carefully selected to encompass the key attributes that reflect the tone of the answers provided during QA sessions across different domain. Our findings are that the best-performing Pre-trained Language Model (PLM), RoBERTa-base, has similar weighted F1 scores to Llama-3-70b-Chat on features with lower subjectivity, such as Relevant and Clear, with a mean difference of 2.17% in their weighted F1 scores. The models perform significantly better on features with higher subjectivity, such as Specific and Assertive, with a mean difference of 10.01% in their weighted F1 scores. Furthermore, testing SubjECTive-QA's generalizability using QAs from White House Press Briefings and Gaggles yields an average weighted F1 score of 65.97% using our best models for each feature, demonstrating broader applicability beyond the financial domain. SubjECTive-QA is publicly available under the CC BY 4.0 license

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arXiv2024

CoCoHD: Congress Committee Hearing Dataset

U.S. congressional hearings significantly influence the national economy and social fabric, impacting individual lives. Despite their importance, there is a lack of comprehensive datasets for analyzing these discourses. To address this, we propose the Congress Committee Hearing Dataset (CoCoHD), covering hearings from 1997 to 2024 across 86 committees, with 32,697 records. This dataset enables researchers to study policy language on critical issues like healthcare, LGBTQ+ rights, and climate justice. We demonstrate its potential with a case study on 1,000 energy-related sentences, analyzing the Energy and Commerce Committee's stance on fossil fuel consumption. By fine-tuning pre-trained language models, we create energy-relevant measures for each hearing. Our market analysis shows that natural language analysis using CoCoHD can predict and highlight trends in the energy sector.

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arXiv2024

BERTScoreVisualizer: A Web Tool for Understanding Simplified Text Evaluation with BERTScore

The BERTScore metric is commonly used to evaluate automatic text simplification systems. However, current implementations of the metric fail to provide complete visibility into all information the metric can produce. Notably, the specific token matchings can be incredibly useful in generating clause-level insight into the quality of simplified text. We address this by introducing BERTScoreVisualizer, a web application that goes beyond reporting precision, recall, and F1 score and provides a visualization of the matching between tokens. We believe that our software can help improve the analysis of text simplification systems by specifically showing where generated, simplified text deviates from reference text. We host our code and demo on GitHub.

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arXiv2024

ConfReady: A RAG based Assistant and Dataset for Conference Checklist Responses

The ARR Responsible NLP Research checklist website states that the "checklist is designed to encourage best practices for responsible research, addressing issues of research ethics, societal impact and reproducibility." Answering the questions is an opportunity for authors to reflect on their work and make sure any shared scientific assets follow best practices. Ideally, considering a checklist before submission can favorably impact the writing of a research paper. However, previous research has shown that self-reported checklist responses don't always accurately represent papers. In this work, we introduce ConfReady, a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) application that can be used to empower authors to reflect on their work and assist authors with conference checklists. To evaluate checklist assistants, we curate a dataset of 1,975 ACL checklist responses, analyze problems in human answers, and benchmark RAG and Large Language Model (LM) based systems on an evaluation subset. Our code is released under the AGPL-3.0 license on GitHub, with documentation covering the user interface and PyPI package.

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arXiv2024

Numerical Claim Detection in Finance: A New Financial Dataset, Weak-Supervision Model, and Market Analysis

In this paper, we investigate the influence of claims in analyst reports and earnings calls on financial market returns, considering them as significant quarterly events for publicly traded companies. To facilitate a comprehensive analysis, we construct a new financial dataset for the claim detection task in the financial domain. We benchmark various language models on this dataset and propose a novel weak-supervision model that incorporates the knowledge of subject matter experts (SMEs) in the aggregation function, outperforming existing approaches. We also demonstrate the practical utility of our proposed model by constructing a novel measure of optimism. Here, we observe the dependence of earnings surprise and return on our optimism measure. Our dataset, models, and code are publicly (under CC BY 4.0 license) available on GitHub.

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arXiv2023

Abnormal Trading Detection in the NFT Market

The Non-Fungible-Token (NFT) market has experienced explosive growth in recent years. According to DappRadar, the total transaction volume on OpenSea, the largest NFT marketplace, reached 34.7 billion dollars in February 2023. However, the NFT market is mostly unregulated and there are significant concerns about money laundering, fraud and wash trading. The lack of industry-wide regulations, and the fact that amateur traders and retail investors comprise a significant fraction of the NFT market, make this market particularly vulnerable to fraudulent activities. Therefore it is essential to investigate and highlight the relevant risks involved in NFT trading. In this paper, we attempted to uncover common fraudulent behaviors such as wash trading that could mislead other traders. Using market data, we designed quantitative features from the network, monetary, and temporal perspectives that were fed into K-means clustering unsupervised learning algorithm to sort traders into groups. Lastly, we discussed the clustering results' significance and how regulations can reduce undesired behaviors. Our work can potentially help regulators narrow down their search space for bad actors in the market as well as provide insights for amateur traders to protect themselves from unforeseen frauds.

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arXiv2023

Shifting Cryptocurrency Influence: A High-Resolution Network Analysis of Market Leaders

Over the last decade, the cryptocurrency market has experienced unprecedented growth, emerging as a prominent financial market. As this market rapidly evolves, it necessitates re-evaluating which cryptocurrencies command the market and steer the direction of blockchain technology. We implement a network-based cryptocurrency market analysis to investigate this changing landscape. We use novel hourly-resolution data and Kendall's Tau correlation to explore the interconnectedness of the cryptocurrency market. We observed critical differences in the hierarchy of cryptocurrencies determined by our method compared to rankings derived from daily data and Pearson's correlation. This divergence emphasizes the potential information loss stemming from daily data aggregation and highlights the limitations of Pearson's correlation. Our findings show that in the early stages of this growth, Bitcoin held a leading role. However, during the 2021 bull run, the landscape changed drastically. We see that while Ethereum has emerged as the overall leader, it was FTT and its associated exchange, FTX, that greatly led to the increase at the beginning of the bull run. We also find that highly-influential cryptocurrencies are increasingly gaining a commanding influence over the market as time progresses, despite the growing number of cryptocurrencies making up the market.

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arXiv2023

Zero is Not Hero Yet: Benchmarking Zero-Shot Performance of LLMs for Financial Tasks

Recently large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT have shown impressive performance on many natural language processing tasks with zero-shot. In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of zero-shot LLMs in the financial domain. We compare the performance of ChatGPT along with some open-source generative LLMs in zero-shot mode with RoBERTa fine-tuned on annotated data. We address three inter-related research questions on data annotation, performance gaps, and the feasibility of employing generative models in the finance domain. Our findings demonstrate that ChatGPT performs well even without labeled data but fine-tuned models generally outperform it. Our research also highlights how annotating with generative models can be time-intensive. Our codebase is publicly available on GitHub under CC BY-NC 4.0 license.

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arXiv2023

Trillion Dollar Words: A New Financial Dataset, Task & Market Analysis

Monetary policy pronouncements by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are a major driver of financial market returns. We construct the largest tokenized and annotated dataset of FOMC speeches, meeting minutes, and press conference transcripts in order to understand how monetary policy influences financial markets. In this study, we develop a novel task of hawkish-dovish classification and benchmark various pre-trained language models on the proposed dataset. Using the best-performing model (RoBERTa-large), we construct a measure of monetary policy stance for the FOMC document release days. To evaluate the constructed measure, we study its impact on the treasury market, stock market, and macroeconomic indicators. Our dataset, models, and code are publicly available on Huggingface and GitHub under CC BY-NC 4.0 license.

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