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Agatha Schmidt

Publications and source records attributed to Agatha Schmidt.

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MEmilio -- A high performance Modular EpideMIcs simuLatIOn software for multi-scale and comparative simulations of infectious disease dynamics

Epidemic and pandemic preparedness with rapid outbreak response rely on timely, trustworthy evidence. Mathematical models are crucial for supporting timely and reliable evidence generation for public health decision-making with models spanning approaches from compartmental and metapopulation models to detailed agent-based simulations. Yet, the accompanying software ecosystem remains fragmented across model types, spatial resolutions, and computational targets, making models harder to compare, extend, and deploy at scale. Here we present MEmilio, a modular, high-performance framework for epidemic simulation that harmonizes the specification and execution of diverse dynamic epidemiological models within a unified and harmonized architecture. MEmilio couples an efficient C++ simulation core with coherent model descriptions and a user-friendly Python interface, enabling workflows that run on laptops as well as high-performance computing systems. Standardized representations of space, demography, and mobility support straightforward adaptations in resolution and population size, facilitating systematic inter-model comparisons and ensemble studies. The framework integrates readily with established tools for uncertainty quantification and parameter inference, supporting a broad range of applications from scenario exploration to calibration. Finally, strict software-engineering practices, including extensive unit and continuous integration testing, promote robustness and minimize the risk of errors as the framework evolves. By unifying implementations across modeling paradigms, MEmilio aims to lower barriers to reuse and generalize models, enable principled comparisons of implicit assumptions, and accelerate the development of novel approaches that strengthen modeling-based outbreak preparedness.

q-bio.PE

Graph Neural Network Surrogates to leverage Mechanistic Expert Knowledge towards Reliable and Immediate Pandemic Response

During the COVID-19 crisis, mechanistic models have guided evidence-based decision making. However, time-critical decisions in a dynamical environment limit the time available to gather supporting evidence. We address this bottleneck by developing a graph neural network (GNN) surrogate of an age-structured and spatially resolved mechanistic metapopulation simulation model. This combined approach complements classical modeling approaches which are mostly mechanistic and purely data-driven machine learning approaches which are often black box. Our design of experiments spans outbreak and persistent-threat regimes, up to three contact change points, and age-structured contact matrices on a spatial graph with 400 nodes representing German counties. We benchmark multiple GNN layers and identify an ARMAConv-based architecture that offers a strong accuracy-runtime trade-off. Across horizons of 30-90 day simulation and prediction, allowing up to three contact change points, the surrogate model attains 10-27 \% mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) while delivering (near) constant runtime with respect to the forecast horizon. Our approach accelerates evaluation by up to 28,670 times compared with the mechanistic model, allowing responsive decision support in time-critical scenarios and straightforward web integration. These results show how GNN surrogates can translate complex metapopulation models into immediate, reliable tools for pandemic response.

cs.LG