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Agnès Lagnoux

Publications and source records attributed to Agnès Lagnoux.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Global Sensitivity Analysis: a new generation of mighty estimators based on rank statistics

We propose a new statistical estimation framework for a large family of global sensitivity analysis methods. Our approach is based on rank statistics and uses an empirical correlation coefficient recently introduced by Sourav Chatterjee. We show how to apply this approach to compute not only the Cramér-von-Mises indices, which are directly related to Chatterjee's notion of correlation, but also Sobol indices at any order, higher-order moment indices, and Shapley effects. We establish consistency of the resulting estimators and demonstrate their numerical efficiency, especially for small sample sizes.

math.ST↗

Global Sensitivity Analysis: a novel generation of mighty estimators based on rank statistics

We propose a new statistical estimation framework for a large family of global sensitivity analysis indices. Our approach is based on rank statistics and uses an empirical correlation coefficient recently introduced by Chatterjee [9]. We show how to apply this approach to compute not only the Cram{é}r-von-Mises indices, which are directly related to Chatterjee's notion of correlation, but also first-order Sobol indices, general metric space indices and higher-order moment indices. We establish consistency of the resulting estimators and demonstrate their numerical efficiency, especially for small sample sizes. In addition, we prove a central limit theorem for the estimators of the first-order Sobol indices.

stat.ME↗

Sensitivity analysis from a single input/output sample

The main objective of this paper is to estimate optimally Sobol' indices at any order when a unique input/output i.i.d.\ sample is available. Our approach stands on three main ingredients: semi-parametric estimation theory, high-order kernel estimation (inspired by the paper of Doksum in 1995), and mirror-type transformations as introduced in Bertin 2020 and Pujol 2022. We propose two different estimators. We prove that these estimators are asymptotically normal and efficient. Furthermore, we illustrate their numerical properties on standard examples.

math.ST↗

Contraction rates and projection subspace estimation with Gaussian process priors in high dimension

This work explores the dimension reduction problem for Bayesian nonparametric regression and density estimation. More precisely, we are interested in estimating a functional parameter $f$ over the unit ball in $\mathbb{R}^d$, which depends only on a $d^*$-dimensional subspace of $\mathbb{R}^d$, with $d^* < d$. It is well-known that rescaled Gaussian process priors over the function space achieve smoothness adaptation and posterior contraction with near minimax-optimal rates. Moreover, hierarchical extensions of this approach, equipped with subspace projection, can also adapt to the intrinsic dimension $d^*$ (\cite{Tokdar2011DimensionAdapt}). When the ambient dimension $d$ does not vary with $n$, the minimax rate remains of the order $n^{-β/(2β+d^*)}$, where $β$ denotes the smoothnes of $f$. However, this is up to multiplicative constants that can become prohibitively large when $d$ grows. The dependences between the contraction rate and the ambient dimension have not been fully explored yet and this work provides a first insight: we let the dimension $d$ grow with $n$ and, by combining the arguments of \cite{Tokdar2011DimensionAdapt} and \cite{Jiang2021VariableSelection}, we derive a growth rate for $d$ that still leads to posterior consistency with minimax rate. The optimality of this growth rate is then discussed. Additionally, we provide a set of assumptions under which consistent estimation of $f$ leads to a correct estimation of the subspace projection, assuming that $d^*$ is known.

math.ST↗

Asymptotic efficiency for Sobol' and Cram{é}r-von Mises indices under two designs of experiments

A variety of indices aim to quantify the impact of input variables on a response, typically the output from a complex computer code or black-box model. Most commonly used, the Sobol' index typically measures the influence of some inputs from an explained variance perspective. However, some situations may require a more targeted analysis of some inputs influence. With no prior information, distribution-based measures appear to be appealing. In this purpose, so-called Cram{é}r-von Mises indices (and their generalization) have been proposed in the literature, defined as an excess probability integrated over the output distribution that aim to reflect influence on the whole distribution of the output rather than on the variance solely. Inference of these various indices has remained a challenging topic especially in presence of many inputs. While several Sobol' indices estimators are known to be optimal under regularity conditions, the issue of asymptotic efficiency for Cram{é}r-von Mises indices has been unaddressed in the literature so far. For these indices, we derive in this paper the efficiency bounds and discuss the known methods to achieve such optimal bounds. Two estimation contexts are considered: the so-called Pick-Freeze scheme and the Given-Data setting, for which the estimation is produced from a unique input-output sample.

math.ST↗

Expected Improvement applied to an industrialcontext -- Prediction of new geometries increasing theefficiency of fans

In automotive industry, client needs evolve quickly in a competitiveness context, particularly, regarding the fan involved in the engine cooling module. This study has been done in cooperation with the automotive supplier Valeo. Here, we propose to use the Kriging interpolation and the Expected Improvement algorithm to provide new fan designs with high performances in terms of eciency. As far as we know, such a use of Kriging and Expected Improvement methodologies are innovative and provide really promising results.

stat.AP↗

Deviation results for Mandelbrot's multiplicative cascades with exponential tails

Let $W$ be a nonnegative random variable with expectation $1$. For all $r \geqslant 2$, we consider the total mass $Z_r^\infty$ of the associated Mandelbrot multiplicative cascade in the $r$-ary tree. For all $n \geqslant 1$, we also consider the total mass $Z_r^n$ of the measure at height $n$ in the $r$-ary tree. Liu, Rio, Rouault \cite{lrr,liu2000limit,Rouault04} established large deviation results for $(Z_r^n)_{r \geqslant 2}$ for all $n \in [[1,\infty[[$ (resp., for $n = \infty$) in case $W$ has an everywhere finite cumulant generating function $Λ_W$ (resp., $W$ is bounded). Here, we extend these results to the case where $Λ_W$ is only finite on a neighborhood of zero. And we establish all deviation results (moderate, large, and very large deviations). It is noticeable that we obtain nonconvex rate functions. Moreover, our proof of upper bounds of deviations for $(Z_r^\infty)_{r \geqslant 2}$ rely on the moment bound instead of the standard Chernoff bound.

math.PR↗

Posterior contraction rates for constrained deep Gaussian processes in density estimation and classication

We provide posterior contraction rates for constrained deep Gaussian processes in non-parametric density estimation and classication. The constraints are in the form of bounds on the values and on the derivatives of the Gaussian processes in the layers of the composition structure. The contraction rates are rst given in a general framework, in terms of a new concentration function that we introduce and that takes the constraints into account. Then, the general framework is applied to integrated Brownian motions, Riemann-Liouville processes, and Mat{é}rn processes and to standard smoothness classes of functions. In each of these examples, we can recover known minimax rates.

math.ST↗

Sensitivity analysis in general metric spaces

In this paper, we introduce new indices adapted to outputs valued in general metric spaces. This new class of indices encompasses the classical ones; in particular, the so-called Sobol indices and the Cram{é}r-von-Mises indices. Furthermore, we provide asymptotically Gaussian estimators of these indices based on U-statistics. Surprisingly, we prove the asymp-totic normality straightforwardly. Finally, we illustrate this new procedure on a toy model and on two real-data examples.

math.ST↗

Probabilistic proofs of large deviation results for sums of semiexponential random variables and explicit rate function at the transition

Asymptotics deviation probabilities of the sum S n = X 1 + $\times$ $\times$ $\times$ + X n of independent and identically distributed real-valued random variables have been extensively investigated, in particular when X 1 is not exponentially integrable. For instance, A.V. Nagaev formulated exact asymptotics results for P(S n > x n) when x n > n 1/2 (see, [13, 14]). In this paper, we derive rough asymptotics results (at logarithmic scale) with shorter proofs relying on classical tools of large deviation theory and expliciting the rate function at the transition.

math.PR↗

Large deviation results for triangular arrays of semiexponential random variables

Asymptotics deviation probabilities of the sum S n = X 1 + $\times$ $\times$ $\times$ + X n of independent and identically distributed real-valued random variables have been extensively investigated , in particular when X 1 is not exponentially integrable. For instance, A.V. Nagaev formulated exact asymptotics results for P(S n > x n) when X 1 has a semiexponential distribution (see, [16, 17]). In the same setting, the authors of [4] derived deviation results at logarithmic scale with shorter proofs relying on classical tools of large deviation theory and expliciting the rate function at the transition. In this paper, we exhibit the same asymptotic behaviour for triangular arrays of semiexponentially distributed random variables, no more supposed absolutely continuous.

math.PR↗

Global sensitivity analysis and Wasserstein spaces

Sensitivity indices are commonly used to quantity the relative inuence of any specic group of input variables on the output of a computer code. In this paper, we focus both on computer codes the output of which is a cumulative distribution function and on stochastic computer codes. We propose a way to perform a global sensitivity analysis for these kinds of computer codes. In the rst setting, we dene two indices: the rst one is based on Wasserstein Fr{é}chet means while the second one is based on the Hoeding decomposition of the indicators of Wasserstein balls. Further, when dealing with the stochastic computer codes, we dene an ideal version of the stochastic computer code thats ts into the frame of the rst setting. Finally, we deduce a procedure to realize a second level global sensitivity analysis, namely when one is interested in the sensitivity related to the input distributions rather than in the sensitivity related to the inputs themselves. Several numerical studies are proposed as illustrations in the dierent settings.

math.ST↗

Semi-parametric estimation of the variogram of a Gaussian process with stationary increments

We consider the semi-parametric estimation of a scale parameter of a one-dimensional Gaussian process with known smoothness. We suggest an estimator based on quadratic variations and on the moment method. We provide asymptotic approximations of the mean and variance of this estimator, together with asymptotic normality results, for a large class of Gaussian processes. We allow for general mean functions and study the aggregation of several estimators based on various variation sequences. In extensive simulation studies, we show that the asymptotic results accurately depict thefinite-sample situations already for small to moderate sample sizes. We also compare various variation sequences and highlight the efficiency of the aggregation procedure.

math.ST↗

Maximum likelihood estimation for Gaussian processes under inequality constraints

We consider covariance parameter estimation for a Gaussian process under inequality constraints (boundedness, monotonicity or convexity) in fixed-domain asymptotics. We address the estimation of the variance parameter and the estimation of the microergodic parameter of the Matérn and Wendland covariance functions. First, we show that the (unconstrained) maximum likelihood estimator has the same asymptotic distribution, unconditionally and conditionally to the fact that the Gaussian process satisfies the inequality constraints. Then, we study the recently suggested constrained maximum likelihood estimator. We show that it has the same asymptotic distribution as the (unconstrained) maximum likelihood estimator. In addition, we show in simulations that the constrained maximum likelihood estimator is generally more accurate on finite samples. Finally, we provide extensions to prediction and to noisy observations.

math.ST↗

On the Bickel-Rosenblatt test of goodness-of-fit for the residuals of autoregressive processes

We investigate in this paper a Bickel-Rosenblatt test of goodness-of-fit for the density of the noise in an autoregressive model. Since the seminal work of Bickel and Rosenblatt, it is well-known that the integrated squared error of the Parzen-Rosenblatt density estimator, once correctly renormalized, is asymptotically Gaussian for independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) sequences. We show that the result still holds when the statistic is built from the residuals of general stable and explosive autoregressive processes. In the univariate unstable case, we prove that the result holds when the unit root is located at $-1$ whereas we give further results when the unit root is located at $1$. In particular, we establish that except for some particular asymmetric kernels leading to a non-Gaussian limiting distribution and a slower convergence, the statistic has the same order of magnitude. We also study some common unstable cases, like the integrated seasonal process. Finally we build a goodness-of-fit Bickel-Rosenblatt test for the true density of the noise together with its empirical properties on the basis of a simulation study.

math.ST↗

Sensitivity analysis based on Cram{é}r von Mises distance

In this paper, we first study a new sensitivity index that is based on higher moments and generalizes the so-called Sobol one. Further, following an idea of Borgonovo ([3]), we define and study a new sensitivity index based on the Cram{é}r von Mises distance. This new index appears to be more general than the Sobol one as it takes into account, not only the variance, but the whole distribution of the random variable. Furthermore, we study the statistical properties of a Monte Carlo estimate of this new index.

math.PR↗

Multilevel branching splitting algorithm for estimating rare event probabilities

We analyse the splitting algorithm performance in the estimation of rare event probabilities and this in a discrete multidimensional framework. For this we assume that each threshold is partitioned into disjoint subsets and the probability for a particle to reach the next threshold will depend on the starting subset. A straightforward estimator of the rare event probability is given by the proportion of simulated particles for which the rare event occurs. The variance of this estimator we get is the sum of two parts: one part resuming the variability due to each threshold and a second part resuming the variability due to the thresholds number. This decomposition is analogous to that of the continuous case. The optimal algorithm is then derived by cancelling the first term leading to optimal thresholds. Then we compare this variance with that of the algorithm in which one of the threshold has been deleted. Finally, we investigate the sensitivity of the variance of the estimator with respect to a shape deformation of an optimal threshold. As an example, we consider a two-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with conformal maps for shape deformation.

math.PR↗

Probability that the maximum of the reflected Brownian motion over a finite interval $[0,t]$ is achieved by its last zero before $t$

We calculate the probability $p_c$ that the maximum of a reflected Brownian motion $U$ is achieved on a complete excursion, i.e. $p_c:=P\big(\overline{U}(t)=U^*(t)\big)$ where $\overline{U}(t)$ (respectively $U^*(t)$) is the maximum of the process $U$ over the time interval $[0,t]$ (resp. $\big[0,g(t)\big]$ where $g(t)$ is the last zero of $U$ before $t$).

math.PR↗