arXiv subjects

Agnideep Aich

Publications and source records attributed to Agnideep Aich.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Bayesian Inference for Joint Tail Risk in Paired Biomarkers via Archimedean Copulas with Restricted Jeffreys Priors

We propose a Bayesian copula-based framework to quantify clinically interpretable joint tail risks from paired continuous biomarkers. After converting each biomarker margin to rank-based pseudo-observations, we model dependence using one-parameter Archimedean copulas and focus on three probability-scale summaries at tail level $\alpha$: the lower-tail joint risk $R_L(\theta)=C_\theta(\alpha,\alpha)$, the upper-tail joint risk $R_U(\theta)=2\alpha-1+C_\theta(1-\alpha,1-\alpha)$, and the conditional lower-tail risk $R_C(\theta)=R_L(\theta)/\alpha$. Uncertainty is quantified via a restricted Jeffreys prior on the copula parameter and grid-based posterior approximation, which induces an exact posterior for each tail-risk functional. In simulations from Clayton and Gumbel copulas across multiple dependence strengths, posterior credible intervals achieve near-nominal coverage for $R_L$, $R_U$, and $R_C$. We then analyze NHANES 2017--2018 fasting glucose (GLU) and HbA1c (GHB) ($n=2887$) at $\alpha=0.05$, obtaining tight posterior credible intervals for both the dependence parameter and induced tail risks. The results reveal markedly elevated extremal co-movement relative to independence; under the Gumbel model, the posterior mean joint upper-tail risk is $R_U(\alpha)=0.0286$, approximately $11.46\times$ the independence benchmark $\alpha^2=0.0025$. Overall, the proposed approach provides a principled, dependence-aware method for reporting joint and conditional extremal-risk summaries with Bayesian uncertainty quantification in biomedical applications.

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arXiv2025

Copula Based Fusion of Clinical and Genomic Machine Learning Risk Scores for Breast Cancer Risk Stratification

Clinical and gene-expression models predict breast cancer outcomes, but simple linear fusion ignores dependence between their risk scores. Using METABRIC, we tested whether modeling the joint distribution of clinical and gene-expression scores improved stratification of 5-year cancer-specific mortality. We defined clinical and mRNA-expression predictor views, trained classifiers, and obtained out-of-fold probabilities through 5-fold cross-validation. The scores were transformed into pseudo-observations on (0,1)^2 and used to fit Gaussian, Clayton, Gumbel, and Frank copulas. The clinical model discriminated better than the gene-expression model (AUC 0.783 vs 0.721). Frank had the smallest goodness-of-fit statistic, with Gaussian performing similarly. Copula fusion did not improve ROC-AUC over the clinical model. However, joint score groups showed clear survival differences, with patients scoring high on both views having the poorest outcomes. Competing-risks analysis showed the same pattern for cancer-death incidence. We also conducted an external evaluation in independent TCGA data using shared predictors and a harmonized 5-year overall-mortality endpoint. Copula-fused, individual, and simple-fusion scores showed comparable discrimination with overlapping confidence intervals. All received the same METABRIC-based recalibration. No gene met the prespecified stability criterion under repeated cross-validated permutation importance, so gene-level findings were treated as exploratory. Copulas provide an explicit, interpretable description of dependence between clinical and gene-expression risk scores and support descriptive joint-group analyses. This methodological study does not establish superior prediction, validated clinical risk categories, or clinical utility.

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arXiv2025

Copula-Stein Discrepancy: A Generator-Based Stein Operator for Archimedean Dependence

Kernel Stein discrepancies (KSDs) are widely used for goodness-of-fit testing, but standard KSDs can be insensitive to higher-order dependence features such as tail dependence. We introduce the Copula-Stein Discrepancy (CSD), which defines a Stein operator directly on the copula density to target dependence geometry rather than the joint score. For Archimedean copulas, CSD admits a closed-form Stein kernel derived from the scalar generator. We prove that CSD metrizes weak convergence of copula distributions, admits an empirical estimator with minimax-optimal rate $O_P(n^{-1/2})$, and is sensitive to differences in tail dependence coefficients. We further extend the framework beyond Archimedean families to general copulas, including elliptical and vine constructions. Computationally, exact CSD kernel evaluation is linear in dimension, and a random-feature approximation reduces the quadratic $O(n^2)$ sample scaling to near-linear $\tilde{O}(n)$; experiments show near-nominal Type~I error, increasing power, and rapid concentration of the approximation toward the exact $\widehat{\mathrm{CSD}}_n^2$ as the number of features grows.

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arXiv2025

The Minimax Lower Bound of Kernel Stein Discrepancy Estimation

Kernel Stein discrepancies (KSDs) have emerged as a powerful tool for quantifying goodness-of-fit over the last decade, featuring numerous successful applications. To the best of our knowledge, all existing KSD estimators with known rate achieve $\sqrt n$-convergence. In this work, we present two complementary results (with different proof strategies), establishing that the minimax lower bound of KSD estimation is $n^{-1/2}$ and settling the optimality of these estimators. Our first result focuses on KSD estimation on $\mathbb R^d$ with the Langevin-Stein operator; our explicit constant for the Gaussian kernel indicates that the difficulty of KSD estimation may increase exponentially with the dimensionality $d$. Our second result settles the minimax lower bound for KSD estimation on general domains.

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arXiv2025

From Sublinear to Linear: Local Convergence in Finite-Width Networks via Locally Polyak-Lojasiewicz Regions

We study local linear convergence of gradient descent for finite-width feedforward networks under the squared empirical loss. Prior work shows that GD can remain confined to a Locally Quasi-Convex Region (LQCR) around initialization, but only gives a sublinear rate. We show that if the empirical Neural Tangent Kernel is positive at initialization, Lipschitz stable on the LQCR, and compatible with the LQCR radius, then the squared loss satisfies a local Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz inequality with constant $\mu = \lambda_0 - L_\Theta r(\Rcal) > 0$. Combined with fixed-step iterate containment in the LQCR, imposed as a hypothesis in the linear-rate theorem, this yields linear convergence on the region. The LQCR supplies localization; fixed-step containment is imposed as a hypothesis in the linear-rate theorem; and the PL inequality comes from NTK conditioning under squared loss. The result is therefore a sufficient local condition, not a claim that this mechanism is necessary or unique for fast convergence. Empirically, we probe the theory through NTK spectral gap, parameter drift, empirical PL ratio, and suboptimality decay. On binary MNIST, the NTK remains positive, the PL ratio has a positive lower envelope, and the loss shows geometric decay on the stable regime. In a width ablation, the fixed-step width-$1024$ run leaves the local regime; reducing the step size lowers final drift from $1.870$ to $0.158$, restores the observed local-regime diagnostics, and yields the largest empirical PL-ratio lower envelope observed in the study. A CNN robustness check on a CIFAR-10 subset shows the PL-ratio envelope remains positive across three seeds, with a positive lower envelope across all three seeds on the stable regime.

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arXiv2025

Copula Discrepancy: Benchmarking Dependence Structure

We study a simple statistic for benchmarking how well a sample preserves a known bivariate dependence structure. Given a target copula family (Clayton or Gumbel) and parameter $\theta_P$, the Copula Discrepancy (CD) compares the target Kendall's tau $\tau(\theta_P)$ with the Kendall's tau implied by a parameter $\hat{\theta}$ fitted to the sample within the target family, i.e., $|\tau(\theta_P)-\tau(\hat{\theta})|$. We develop a moment-based version, prove consistency, asymptotic normality, and robustness results under i.i.d.\ sampling, and use an MLE-based version empirically for greater power against tail-structure misspecification. Building on this, we define two information-theoretic copula summaries, a copula KL divergence (CKL) and a copula entropy gap (CED), and establish basic consistency and central limit results for their plug-in estimators. In controlled experiments, CD reliably separates on-target and off-target copulas with matched Kendall's $\tau$, provides a dependence-aware signal for tuning SGLD step sizes where Effective Sample Size favors overly aggressive (and biased) settings, and remains stably nonzero under deliberate tail-dependence mismatch where a naive $\tau$-based diagnostic fails; CKL and CED offer a complementary Shannon-style view that echoes these findings. Timing benchmarks show that both CD variants incur only millisecond-level overhead over the tested range and exhibit near-linear empirical scaling in sample size, providing a lightweight, dependence-focused complement to quadratic-cost omnibus discrepancies such as the Kernel Stein Discrepancy (KSD).

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arXiv2025

Bag of Coins: A Statistical Probe into Neural Confidence Structures

Modern neural networks often produce miscalibrated confidence scores and struggle to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs, while most existing methods post-process outputs without testing internal consistency. We introduce the Bag-of-Coins (BoC) probe, a non-parametric diagnostic of logit coherence that compares softmax confidence $\hat p$ to an aggregate of pairwise Luce-style dominance probabilities $\bar q$, yielding a deterministic coherence score and a p-value-based structural score. Across ViT, ResNet, and RoBERTa with ID/OOD test sets, the coherence gap $\Delta=\bar q-\hat p$ reveals clear ID/OOD separation for ViT (ID ${\sim}0.1$-$0.2$, OOD ${\sim}0.5$-$0.6$) but substantial overlap for ResNet and RoBERTa (both ${\sim}0$), indicating architecture-dependent uncertainty geometry. As a practical method, BoC improves calibration only when the base model is poorly calibrated (ViT: ECE $0.024$ vs.\ $0.180$) and underperforms standard calibrators (ECE ${\sim}0.005$), while for OOD detection it fails across architectures (AUROC $0.020$-$0.253$) compared to standard scores ($0.75$-$0.99$). We position BoC as a research diagnostic for interrogating how architectures encode uncertainty in logit geometry rather than a production calibration or OOD detection method.

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arXiv2025

Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP): A Distribution-Free Statistical and Machine Learning Framework for Adaptive Risk Forecasting

We propose \textbf{Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP)}, a distribution-free framework for constructing well-calibrated prediction intervals in nonstationary time series. TCP couples a modern quantile forecaster with a rolling split-conformal calibration layer; its \textbf{TCP-RM} variant adds an online Robbins-Monro offset to steer coverage in real time. We benchmark TCP against GARCH, Historical Simulation, Quantile Regression (QR), linear QR, and Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) across S\&P 500, Bitcoin, and Gold. Three results are consistent. First, QR baselines yield the sharpest intervals but are materially under-calibrated; even ACI remains below the 95\% target. Second, TCP achieves near-nominal coverage, yielding intervals slightly wider than Historical Simulation (e.g., S\&P 500: 5.21 vs.\ 5.06). Third, the RM update changes calibration only marginally at default hyperparameters. Crisis-window visualizations (March 2020) show TCP promptly expanding and contracting intervals as volatility spikes. A sensitivity study confirms robustness to hyperparameters. Overall, TCP bridges statistical inference and machine learning, providing a practical solution for calibrated risk forecasting under distribution shift.

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arXiv2025

CopulaSMOTE: A Copula-Based Oversampling Approach for Imbalanced Classification in Diabetes Prediction

Class imbalance remains a practical obstacle in the development of clinical prediction models for conditions such as diabetes mellitus, where the number of confirmed cases is often much smaller than the number of controls. The Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) and its variants are widely used to address this imbalance, but they generate synthetic observations through local interpolation in feature space and do not explicitly model the joint dependence structure of the minority class. To address this challenge, our study introduces a copula-based data augmentation approach that estimates the minority-class dependence structure when generating synthetic samples and integrates with standard machine learning techniques. Specifically, we employ truncated vine copulas to represent multivariate dependence through a sequence of bivariate building blocks. We evaluate the proposed approach on three public diabetes datasets, namely the Pima Indians Diabetes dataset, the Iraqi Diabetes dataset, and the CDC BRFSS 2015 Diabetes Health Indicators dataset, which together cover a range of sample sizes, dimensionalities, and imbalance regimes. For each dataset, five resampling strategies are compared across five classifiers using a 5 by 2 cross validation protocol with Dietterich's paired t test. Our findings suggest that CopulaSMOTE can improve minority-class recovery in larger tabular diabetes datasets, particularly the CDC BRFSS dataset, but its advantages depend on the classifier and evaluation metric.

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arXiv2025

Deep Copula Classifier: Theory, Consistency, and Empirical Evaluation

We present the Deep Copula Classifier (DCC), a class-conditional generative model that separates marginal estimation from dependence modeling using neural copula densities. DCC is interpretable, Bayes-consistent, and achieves excess-risk $O(n^{-r/(2r+d)})$ for $r$-smooth copulas. In a controlled two-class study with strong dependence ($|\rho|=0.995$), DCC learns Bayes-aligned decision regions. With oracle or pooled marginals, it nearly reaches the best possible performance (accuracy $\approx 0.971$; ROC-AUC $\approx 0.998$). As expected, per-class KDE marginals perform less well (accuracy $0.873$; ROC-AUC $0.957$; PR-AUC $0.966$). On the Pima Indians Diabetes dataset, calibrated DCC ($\tau=1$) achieves accuracy $0.879$, ROC-AUC $0.936$, and PR-AUC $0.870$, outperforming Logistic Regression, SVM (RBF), and Naive Bayes, and matching Logistic Regression on the lowest Expected Calibration Error (ECE). Random Forest is also competitive (accuracy $0.892$; ROC-AUC $0.933$; PR-AUC $0.880$). Directly modeling feature dependence yields strong, well-calibrated performance with a clear probabilistic interpretation, making DCC a practical, theoretically grounded alternative to independence-based classifiers.

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arXiv2025

A2 Copula-Driven Spatial Bayesian Neural Network For Modeling Non-Gaussian Dependence: A Simulation Study

In this paper, we introduce the A2 Copula Spatial Bayesian Neural Network (A2-SBNN), a predictive spatial model designed to map coordinates to continuous fields while capturing both typical spatial patterns and extreme dependencies. By embedding the dual-tail novel Archimedean copula viz. A2 directly into the network's weight initialization, A2-SBNN naturally models complex spatial relationships, including rare co-movements in the data. The model is trained through a calibration-driven process combining Wasserstein loss, moment matching, and correlation penalties to refine predictions and manage uncertainty. Simulation results show that A2-SBNN consistently delivers high accuracy across a wide range of dependency strengths, offering a new, effective solution for spatial data modeling beyond traditional Gaussian-based approaches.

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arXiv2025

IGNIS: A Robust Neural Network Framework for Constrained Parameter Estimation in Archimedean Copulas

Classical estimators, the cornerstones of statistical inference, face insurmountable challenges when applied to important emerging classes of Archimedean copulas. These models exhibit pathological properties, including numerically unstable densities, a restrictive lower bound on Kendall's tau, and vanishingly small likelihood gradients, making MLE brittle and limiting MoM's applicability to datasets with sufficiently strong dependence (i.e., only when the empirical Kendall's $\tau$ exceeds the family's lower bound $\approx 0.545$). We introduce \textbf{IGNIS}, a unified neural estimation framework that sidesteps these barriers by learning a direct, robust mapping from data-driven dependency measures to the underlying copula parameter $\theta$. IGNIS utilizes a multi-input architecture and a theory-guided output layer ($\mathrm{softplus}(z) + 1$) to automatically enforce the domain constraint $\hat{\theta} \geq 1$. Trained and validated on four families (Gumbel, Joe, and the numerically challenging A1/A2), IGNIS delivers accurate and stable estimates for real-world financial and health datasets, demonstrating its necessity for reliable inference in modern, complex dependence models where traditional methods fail. To our knowledge, IGNIS is the first \emph{standalone, general-purpose} neural estimator for Archimedean copulas (not a generative model or likelihood optimizer), delivering direct, constraint-aware $\hat{\theta}$ and readily extensible to additional families via retraining or minor output-layer adaptations.

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arXiv2025

Symplectic Generative Networks (SGNs): A Hamiltonian Framework for Invertible Deep Generative Modeling

We introduce the \emph{Symplectic Generative Network (SGN)}, a deep generative model that leverages Hamiltonian mechanics to construct an invertible, volume-preserving mapping between a latent space and the data space. By endowing the latent space with a symplectic structure and modeling data generation as the time evolution of a Hamiltonian system, SGN achieves exact likelihood evaluation without incurring the computational overhead of Jacobian determinant calculations. In this work, we provide a rigorous mathematical foundation for SGNs through a comprehensive theoretical framework that includes: (i) complete proofs of invertibility and volume preservation, (ii) a formal complexity analysis with theoretical comparisons to Variational Autoencoders and Normalizing Flows, (iii) strengthened universal approximation results with quantitative error bounds, (iv) an information-theoretic analysis based on the geometry of statistical manifolds, and (v) an extensive stability analysis with adaptive integration guarantees. These contributions highlight the fundamental advantages of SGNs and establish a solid foundation for future empirical investigations and applications to complex, high-dimensional data.

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arXiv2025

A Copula Based Supervised Filter for Feature Selection in Diabetes Risk Prediction Using Machine Learning

Effective feature selection is critical for robust and interpretable predictive modeling in medicine, especially when risk factors matter most in extreme patient strata. Many standard selectors emphasize average associations and can miss predictors whose relevance is concentrated in the distribution tails. We propose a computationally efficient supervised filter based on a Gumbel-copula implied upper-tail concordance score (lambda U), defined as a monotone transformation of Kendall's tau, to rank features by their tendency to be simultaneously extreme with the positive class. We compare against four common baselines (Mutual Information, mRMR, ReliefF, and L1/Elastic-Net) across four classifiers on two diabetes datasets: a large-scale public health survey (CDC, N=253,680) and a clinical benchmark (PIMA, N=768). Analyses include statistical testing, permutation importance, and robustness checks. On CDC, the proposed selector is the fastest and reduces 21 features to 10 (approx 52%). This yields a small but statistically significant trade-off relative to using all features, while performing better than standard filters (Mutual Information, mRMR) and comparably to the strong ReliefF baseline. On PIMA (8 predictors), the resulting ranking attains the highest ROC-AUC numerically, though paired DeLong tests show no significant differences versus strong baselines; PIMA therefore serves as a ranking-only sanity check in a low-dimensional setting. Across both datasets, the lambda U-based selector highlights clinically coherent predictors and provides an efficient, interpretable screening step that can complement standard feature-selection methods in public health and clinical risk prediction.

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