arXiv subjects

Agnieszka Wyłomańska

Publications and source records attributed to Agnieszka Wyłomańska.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Langevin equation in heterogeneous landscapes: how to choose the interpretation

The Langevin equation is a common tool to model diffusion at a single-particle level. In non-homogeneous environments, such as aqueous two-phase systems or biological condensates with different diffusion coefficients in different phases, the solution to a Langevin equation is not unique unless the interpretation of stochastic integrals involved is selected. We analyze the diffusion of particles in such systems and evaluate the mean, the mean square displacement, and the distribution of particles, as well as the variance of the time-averaged mean-squared displacements. Our analytical results provide a method to choose the interpretation parameter from single particle tracking experiments.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2024

Modified Greenwood statistic and its application for statistical testing

In this paper, we explore the modified Greenwood statistic, which, in contrast to the classical Greenwood statistic, is properly defined for random samples from any distribution. The classical Greenwood statistic, extensively examined in the existing literature, has found diverse and interesting applications across various domains. Furthermore, numerous modifications to the classical statistic have been proposed. The modified Greenwood statistic, as proposed and discussed in this paper, shares several key properties with its classical counterpart. Emphasizing its stochastic monotonicity within three broad classes of distributions - namely, generalized Pareto, $α-$stable, and Student's t distributions - we advocate for the utilization of the modified Greenwood statistic in testing scenarios. Our exploration encompasses three distinct directions. In the first direction, we employ the modified Greenwood statistic for Gaussian distribution testing. Our empirical results compellingly illustrate that the proposed approach consistently outperforms alternative goodness-of-fit tests documented in the literature, particularly exhibiting superior efficacy for small sample sizes. The second considered problem involves testing the infinite-variance distribution of a given random sample. The last proposition suggests using the modified Greenwood statistic for testing of a given distribution. The presented simulation study strongly supports the efficiency of the proposed approach in the considered problems. Theoretical results and power simulation studies are further validated by real data analysis.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Gaussian dependence structure pairwise goodness-of-fit testing based on conditional covariance and the 20/60/20 rule

We present a novel data-oriented statistical framework that assesses the presumed Gaussian dependence structure in a pairwise setting. This refers to both multivariate normality and normal copula goodness-of-fit testing. The proposed test clusters the data according to the 20/60/20 rule and confronts conditional covariance (or correlation) estimates on the obtained subsets. The corresponding test statistic has a natural practical interpretation, desirable statistical properties, and asymptotic pivotal distribution under the multivariate normality assumption. We illustrate the usefulness of the introduced framework using extensive power simulation studies and show that our approach outperforms popular benchmark alternatives. Also, we apply the proposed methodology to commodities market data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Assessment of background noise properties in time and time-frequency domains in the context of vibration-based local damage detection in real environment

Any measurement in condition monitoring applications is associated with disturbing noise. Till now, most of the diagnostic procedures have assumed the Gaussian distribution for the noise. This paper shares a novel perspective to the problem of local damage detection. The acquired vector of observations is considered as an additive mixture of signal of interest (SOI) and noise with strongly non-Gaussian, heavy-tailed properties, that masks the SOI. The distribution properties of the background noise influence the selection of tools used for the signal analysis, particularly for local damage detection. Thus, it is extremely important to recognize and identify possible non-Gaussian behavior of the noise. The problem considered here is more general than the classical goodness-of-fit testing. The paper highlights the important role of variance, as most of the methods for signal analysis are based on the assumption of the finite-variance distribution of the underlying signal. The finite variance assumption is crucial but implicit to most indicators used in condition monitoring, (such as the root-mean-square value, the power spectral density, the kurtosis, the spectral correlation, etc.), in view that infinite variance implies moments higher than 2 are also infinite. The problem is demonstrated based on three popular types of non-Gaussian distributions observed for real vibration signals. We demonstrate how the properties of noise distribution in the time domain may change by its transformations to the time-frequency domain (spectrogram). Additionally, we propose a procedure to check the presence of the infinite-variance of the background noise. Our investigations are illustrated using simulation studies and real vibration signals from various machines.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Empirical study of periodic autoregressive models with additive noise -- estimation and testing

Periodic autoregressive (PAR) time series with finite variance is considered as one of the most common models of second-order cyclostationary processes. However, in the real applications, the signals with periodic characteristics may be disturbed by additional noise related to measurement device disturbances or to other external sources. Thus, the known estimation techniques dedicated for PAR models may be inefficient for such cases. When the variance of the additive noise is relatively small, it can be ignored and the classical estimation techniques can be applied. However, for extreme cases, the additive noise can have a significant influence on the estimation results. In this paper, we propose four estimation techniques for the noise-corrupted PAR models with finite variance distributions. The methodology is based on Yule-Walker equations utilizing the autocovariance function. It can be used for any type of the finite variance additive noise. The presented simulation study clearly indicates the efficiency of the proposed techniques, also for extreme case, when the additive noise is a sum of the Gaussian additive noise and additive outliers. The proposed estimation techniques are also applied for testing if the data corresponds to noise-corrupted PAR model. This issue is strongly related to the identification of informative component in the data in case when the model is disturbed by additive non-informative noise. The power of the test is studied for simulated data. Finally, the testing procedure is applied for two real time series describing particulate matter concentration in the air.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Goodness-of-fit tests for the one-sided Lévy distribution based on quantile conditional moments

In this paper we introduce a novel statistical framework based on the first two quantile conditional moments that facilitates effective goodness-of-fit testing for one-sided Lévy distributions. The scale-ratio framework introduced in this paper extends our previous results in which we have shown how to extract unique distribution features using conditional variance ratio for the generic class of α-stable distributions. We show that the conditional moment-based goodness-of-fit statistics are a good alternative to other methods introduced in the literature tailored to the one-sided Lévy distributions. The usefulness of our approach is verified using an empirical test power study. For completeness, we also derive the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics and show how to apply our framework to real data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

The modified Yule-Walker method for multidimensional infinite-variance periodic autoregressive model of order 1

The time series with periodic behavior, such as the periodic autoregressive (PAR) models belonging to the class of the periodically correlated processes, are present in various real applications. In the literature, such processes were considered in different directions, especially with the Gaussian-distributed noise. However, in most of the applications, the assumption of the finite-variance distribution seems to be too simplified. Thus, one can consider the extensions of the classical PAR model where the non-Gaussian distribution is applied. In particular, the Gaussian distribution can be replaced by the infinite-variance distribution, e.g. by the $α-$stable distribution. In this paper, we focus on the multidimensional $α-$stable PAR time series models. For such models, we propose a new estimation method based on the Yule-Walker equations. However, since for the infinite-variance case the covariance does not exist, thus it is replaced by another measure, namely the covariation. In this paper we propose to apply two estimators of the covariation measure. The first one is based on moment representation (moment-based) while the second one - on the spectral measure representation (spectral-based). The validity of the new approaches are verified using the Monte Carlo simulations in different contexts, including the sample size and the index of stability of the noise. Moreover, we compare the moment-based covariation-based method with spectral-based covariation-based technique. Finally, the real data analysis is presented.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Identification and validation of periodic autoregressive model with additive noise: finite-variance case

In this paper, we address the problem of modeling data with periodic autoregressive (PAR) time series and additive noise. In most cases, the data are processed assuming a noise-free model (i.e., without additive noise), which is not a realistic assumption in real life. The first two steps in PAR model identification are order selection and period estimation, so the main focus is on these issues. Finally, the model should be validated, so a procedure for analyzing the residuals, which are considered here as multidimensional vectors, is proposed. Both order and period selection, as well as model validation, are addressed by using the characteristic function (CF) of the residual series. The CF is used to obtain the probability density function, which is utilized in the information criterion and for residuals distribution testing. To complete the PAR model analysis, the procedure for estimating the coefficients is necessary. However, this issue is only mentioned here as it is a separate task (under consideration in parallel). The presented methodology can be considered as the general framework for analyzing data with periodically non-stationary characteristics disturbed by finite-variance external noise. The original contribution is in the selection of the optimal model order and period identification, as well as the analysis of residuals. All these findings have been inspired by our previous work on machine condition monitoring that used PAR modeling

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Modelling intermittent anomalous diffusion with switching fractional Brownian motion

The stochastic trajectories of molecules in living cells, as well as the dynamics in many other complex systems, often exhibit memory in their path over long periods of time. In addition, these systems can show dynamic heterogeneities due to which the motion changes along the trajectories. Such effects manifest themselves as spatiotemporal correlations. Despite the broad occurrence of heterogeneous complex systems in nature, their analysis is still quite poorly understood and tools to model them are largely missing. We contribute to tackling this problem by employing an integral representation of Mandelbrot's fractional Brownian motion that is compliant with varying motion parameters while maintaining long memory. Two types of switching fractional Brownian motion are analysed, with transitions arising from a Markovian stochastic process and scale-free intermittent processes. We obtain simple formulas for classical statistics of the processes, namely the mean squared displacement and the power spectral density. Further, a method to identify switching fractional Brownian motion based on the distribution of displacements is described. A validation of the model is given for experimental measurements of the motion of quantum dots in the cytoplasm of live mammalian cells that were obtained by single-particle tracking.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2022

Estimation of stability index for symmetric α-stable distribution using quantile conditional variance ratios

The class of $α$-stable distributions is widely used in various applications, especially for modelling heavy-tailed data. Although the $α$-stable distributions have been used in practice for many years, new methods for identification, testing, and estimation are still being refined and new approaches are being proposed. The constant development of new statistical methods is related to the low efficiency of existing algorithms, especially when the underlying sample is small or the underlying distribution is close to Gaussian. In this paper we propose a new estimation algorithm for stability index, for samples from the symmetric $α$-stable distribution. The proposed approach is based on quantile conditional variance ratio. We study the statistical properties of the proposed estimation procedure and show empirically that our methodology often outperforms other commonly used estimation algorithms. Moreover, we show that our statistic extracts unique sample characteristics that can be combined with other methods to refine existing methodologies via ensamble methods. Although our focus is set on the symmetric $α$-stable case, we demonstrate that the considered statistic is insensitive to the skewness parameter change, so that our method could be also used in a more generic framework. For completeness, we also show how to apply our method on real data linked to plasma physics.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Fractional Brownian motion with random Hurst exponent: accelerating diffusion and persistence transitions

Fractional Brownian motion, a Gaussian non-Markovian self-similar process with stationary long-correlated increments, has been identified to give rise to the anomalous diffusion behavior in a great variety of physical systems. The correlation and diffusion properties of this random motion are fully characterized by its index of self-similarity, or the Hurst exponent. However, recent single particle tracking experiments in biological cells revealed highly complicated anomalous diffusion phenomena that can not be attributed to a class of self-similar random processes. Inspired by these observations, we here study the process which preserves the properties of fractional Brownian motion at a single trajectory level, however, the Hurst index randomly changes from trajectory to trajectory. We provide a general mathematical framework for analytical, numerical and statistical analysis of fractional Brownian motion with random Hurst exponent. The explicit formulas for probability density function, mean square displacement and autocovariance function of the increments are presented for three generic distributions of the Hurst exponent, namely two-point, uniform and beta distributions. The important features of the process studied here are accelerating diffusion and persistence transition which we demonstrate analytically and numerically.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2022

Dependence structure for the product of bi-dimensional finite-variance VAR(1) model components. An application to the cost of electricity load prediction errors

In this paper we analyze the product of bi-dimensional VAR(1) model components. For the introduced time series we derive general formulas for the autocovariance function and study its properties for different cases of cross-dependence between the VAR(1) model components. The theoretical results are then illustrated in the simulation study for two types of bivariate distributions of the residual series, namely the Gaussian and Student's t. We also show a possible practical application of the obtained results based on the data from the electricity market.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

On the distribution of the product of two continuous random variables with an application to electricity market transactions. Finite and infinite-variance case

In this paper we study the distribution of a product of two continuous random variables. We derive formulas for the probability density functions and moments of the products of the Gaussian, log-normal, Student's t and Pareto random variables. In all cases we analyze separately independent as well as correlated random variables. Based on the theoretical results we use the general maximum likelihood approach for the estimation of the parameters of the product random variables and apply the methodology for a real data case study. We analyze a distribution of the transaction values, being a product of prices and volumes, from a continuous trade on the German intraday electricity market.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Market risk factors analysis for an international mining company. Multi-dimensional, heavy-tailed-based modelling

Mining companies to properly manage their operations and be ready to make business decisions, are required to analyze potential scenarios for main market risk factors. The most important risk factors for KGHM, one of the biggest companies active in the metals and mining industry, are the price of copper (Cu), traded in US dollars, and the Polish zloty (PLN) exchange rate (USDPLN). The main scope of the paper is to understand the mid- and long-term dynamics of these two risk factors. For a mining company it might help to properly evaluate potential downside market risk and optimise hedging instruments. From the market risk management perspective, it is also important to analyze the dynamics of these two factors combined with the price of copper in Polish zloty (Cu in PLN), which jointly drive the revenues, cash flows, and financial results of the company. Based on the relation between analyzed risk factors and distribution analysis, we propose to use two-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model with the $α-$stable distribution. The non-homogeneity of the data is reflected in two identified regimes: first - corresponding to the 2008 crisis and second - to the stable market situation. As a natural implication of the model fitted to market assets, we derive the dynamics of the copper price in PLN, which is not a traded asset but is crucial for the KGHM company risk exposure. A comparative study is performed to demonstrate the effect of including dependencies of the assets and the implications of the regime change. Since for various international companies, risk factors are given rather in the national than the market currency, the approach is universal and can be used in different market contexts, like mining or oil companies, but also other commodities involved in the global trading system.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2020

Leveraging large-deviation statistics to decipher the stochastic properties of measured trajectories

Extensive time-series encoding the position of particles such as viruses, vesicles, or individual proteins are routinely garnered in single-particle tracking experiments or supercomputing studies. They contain vital clues on how viruses spread or drugs may be delivered in biological cells. Similar time-series are being recorded of stock values in financial markets and of climate data. Such time-series are most typically evaluated in terms of time-average mean-squared displacements, which remain random variables for finite measurement times. Their statistical properties are different for different physical stochastic processes, thus allowing us to extract valuable information on the stochastic process itself. To exploit the full potential of the statistical information encoded in measured time-series we here propose an easy-to-implement and computationally inexpensive new methodology, based on deviations of the time-averaged mean-squared displacement from its ensemble average counterpart. Specifically, we use the upper bound of these deviations for Brownian motion to check the applicability of this approach to simulated and real data sets. By comparing the probability of deviations for different data sets, we demonstrate how the theoretical bound for Brownian motion reveals additional information about observed stochastic processes. We apply the large-deviation method to data sets of tracer beads tracked in aqueous solution, tracer beads measured in mucin hydrogels, and of geographic surface temperature anomalies. Our analysis shows how the large-deviation properties can be efficiently used as a simple yet effective routine test to reject the Brownian motion hypothesis and unveil crucial information on statistical properties such as ergodicity breaking and short-time correlations.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2019

Asymptotic behavior of the cross-dependence measures for bidimensional AR(1) model with $α-$stable noise

In this paper, we consider a bidimensional autoregressive model of order 1 with $α-$stable noise. Since in this case the classical measure of dependence known as the covariance function is not defined, the spatio-temporal dependence structure is described using the alternative measures, namely the codifference and the covariation functions. Here, we investigate the asymptotic relation between these two dependence measures applied to the description of the cross-dependence of the bidimensional model. We demonstrate the case when the dependence measures are asymptotically proportional with the coefficient of proportionality equal to the parameter $α$. The theoretical results are supported by illustrating the asymptotic behavior of the dependence measures for two exemplary bidimensional $α-$stable AR(1) systems.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Cross-codifference for bidimensional VAR(1) models with infinite variance

In this paper we consider the problem of a measure that allows us to describe the spatial and temporal dependence structure of multivariate time series with innovations having infinite variance. By using recent results obtained in the problem of temporal dependence structure of univariate stochastic processes, where the auto-codifference was used, we extend its idea and propose a cross-codifference measure for a general vector autoregressive model of order 1 (VAR(1)). Next, we derive an analytical results for VAR(1) model with Gaussian and sub-Gaussian innovations, that are characterized by finite and infinite variance, respectively. We emphasize that obtained expressions perfectly agree with the empirical counterparts. Moreover, we show that for the considered processes the cross-codifference simplifies to the well-established cross-covariance measure in case of Gaussian white noise. Last part of the work is devoted to the statistical estimation of VAR(1) parameters based on the empirical cross-codifference. Again, we demonstrate via Monte Carlo simulations that proposed methodology works correctly.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Optimal parameters for anomalous diffusion exponent estimation from noisy data

The most common way of estimating the anomalous diffusion exponent from single-particle trajectories consists in a linear fitting of the dependence of the time averaged mean square displacement on the lag time at the log-log scale. However, various measurement noises that are unavoidably present in experimental data, can strongly deteriorate the quality of this estimation procedure and bias the estimated exponent. To investigate the impact of noises and to improve the estimation quality, we compare three approaches for estimating the anomalous diffusion exponent and check their efficiency on fractional Brownian motion corrupted by Gaussian noise. We discuss how the parameters of this anomalous diffusion model and the parameters of the estimation techniques influence the estimated exponent. We show that the conventional linear fitting is the least optimal method for the analysis of noisy data.

physics.data-an↗