arXiv subjects

Agus Sudjianto

Publications and source records attributed to Agus Sudjianto.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

An Information-Theoretic Framework for Credit Risk Modeling: Unifying Industry Practice with Statistical Theory for Fair and Interpretable Scorecards

Credit risk modeling relies extensively on Weight of Evidence (WoE) and Information Value (IV) for feature engineering, and Population Stability Index (PSI) for drift monitoring, yet their theoretical foundations remain disconnected. We establish a unified information-theoretic framework revealing these industry-standard metrics as instances of classical information divergences. Specifically, we prove that IV exactly equals PSI (Jeffreys divergence) computed between good and bad credit outcomes over identical bins. Through the delta method applied to WoE transformations, we derive standard errors for IV and PSI, enabling formal hypothesis testing and probabilistic fairness constraints for the first time. We formalize credit modeling's inherent performance-fairness trade-off as maximizing IV for predictive power while minimizing IV for protected attributes. Using automated binning with depth-1 XGBoost stumps, we compare three encoding strategies: logistic regression with one-hot encoding, WoE transformation, and constrained XGBoost. All methods achieve comparable predictive performance (AUC 0.82-0.84), demonstrating that principled, information-theoretic binning outweighs encoding choice. Mixed-integer programming traces Pareto-efficient solutions along the performance-fairness frontier with uncertainty quantification. This framework bridges theory and practice, providing the first rigorous statistical foundation for widely-used credit risk metrics while offering principled tools for balancing accuracy and fairness in regulated environments.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Geometric Dynamics of Consumer Credit Cycles: A Multivector-based Linear-Attention Framework for Explanatory Economic Analysis

This study introduces geometric algebra to decompose credit system relationships into their projective (correlation-like) and rotational (feedback-spiral) components. We represent economic states as multi-vectors in Clifford algebra, where bivector elements capture the rotational coupling between unemployment, consumption, savings, and credit utilization. This mathematical framework reveals interaction patterns invisible to conventional analysis: when unemployment and credit contraction enter simultaneous feedback loops, their geometric relationship shifts from simple correlation to dangerous rotational dynamics that characterize systemic crises.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2025

Decomposing Global AUC into Cluster-Level Contributions for Localized Model Diagnostics

The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) is a widely used performance metric for binary classifiers. However, as a global ranking statistic, the AUC aggregates model behavior over the entire dataset, masking localized weaknesses in specific subpopulations. In high-stakes applications such as credit approval and fraud detection, these weaknesses can lead to financial risk or operational failures. In this paper, we introduce a formal decomposition of global AUC into intra- and inter-cluster components. This allows practitioners to evaluate classifier performance within and across clusters of data, enabling granular diagnostics and subgroup analysis. We also compare the AUC with additive performance metrics such as the Brier score and log loss, which support decomposability and direct attribution. Our framework enhances model development and validation practice by providing additional insights to detect model weakness for model risk management.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Human-Calibrated Automated Testing and Validation of Generative Language Models

This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for the evaluation and validation of generative language models (GLMs), with a focus on Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems deployed in high-stakes domains such as banking. GLM evaluation is challenging due to open-ended outputs and subjective quality assessments. Leveraging the structured nature of RAG systems, where generated responses are grounded in a predefined document collection, we propose the Human-Calibrated Automated Testing (HCAT) framework. HCAT integrates a) automated test generation using stratified sampling, b) embedding-based metrics for explainable assessment of functionality, risk and safety attributes, and c) a two-stage calibration approach that aligns machine-generated evaluations with human judgments through probability calibration and conformal prediction. In addition, the framework includes robustness testing to evaluate model performance against adversarial, out-of-distribution, and varied input conditions, as well as targeted weakness identification using marginal and bivariate analysis to pinpoint specific areas for improvement. This human-calibrated, multi-layered evaluation framework offers a scalable, transparent, and interpretable approach to GLM assessment, providing a practical and reliable solution for deploying GLMs in applications where accuracy, transparency, and regulatory compliance are paramount.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Towards a framework on tabular synthetic data generation: a minimalist approach: theory, use cases, and limitations

We propose and study a minimalist approach towards synthetic tabular data generation. The model consists of a minimalistic unsupervised SparsePCA encoder (with contingent clustering step or log transformation to handle nonlinearity) and XGboost decoder which is SOTA for structured data regression and classification tasks. We study and contrast the methodologies with (variational) autoencoders in several toy low dimensional scenarios to derive necessary intuitions. The framework is applied to high dimensional simulated credit scoring data which parallels real-life financial applications. We applied the method to robustness testing to demonstrate practical use cases. The case study result suggests that the method provides an alternative to raw and quantile perturbation for model robustness testing. We show that the method is simplistic, guarantees interpretability all the way through, does not require extra tuning and provide unique benefits.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Model Validation Practice in Banking: A Structured Approach for Predictive Models

This paper presents a comprehensive overview of model validation practices and advancement in the banking industry based on the experience of managing Model Risk Management (MRM) since the inception of regulatory guidance SR11-7/OCC11-12 over a decade ago. Model validation in banking is a crucial process designed to ensure that predictive models, which are often used for credit risk, fraud detection, and capital planning, operate reliably and meet regulatory standards. This practice ensures that models are conceptually sound, produce valid outcomes, and are consistently monitored over time. Model validation in banking is a multi-faceted process with three key components: conceptual soundness evaluation, outcome analysis, and on-going monitoring to ensure that the models are not only designed correctly but also perform reliably and consistently in real-world environments. Effective validation helps banks mitigate risks, meet regulatory requirements, and maintain trust in the models that underpin critical business decisions.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Improving the Reconstruction of Disentangled Representation Learners via Multi-Stage Modeling

Current autoencoder-based disentangled representation learning methods achieve disentanglement by penalizing the (aggregate) posterior to encourage statistical independence of the latent factors. This approach introduces a trade-off between disentangled representation learning and reconstruction quality since the model does not have enough capacity to learn correlated latent variables that capture detail information present in most image data. To overcome this trade-off, we present a novel multi-stage modeling approach where the disentangled factors are first learned using a penalty-based disentangled representation learning method; then, the low-quality reconstruction is improved with another deep generative model that is trained to model the missing correlated latent variables, adding detail information while maintaining conditioning on the previously learned disentangled factors. Taken together, our multi-stage modelling approach results in a single, coherent probabilistic model that is theoretically justified by the principal of D-separation and can be realized with a variety of model classes including likelihood-based models such as variational autoencoders, implicit models such as generative adversarial networks, and tractable models like normalizing flows or mixtures of Gaussians. We demonstrate that our multi-stage model has higher reconstruction quality than current state-of-the-art methods with equivalent disentanglement performance across multiple standard benchmarks. In addition, we apply the multi-stage model to generate synthetic tabular datasets, showcasing an enhanced performance over benchmark models across a variety of metrics. The interpretability analysis further indicates that the multi-stage model can effectively uncover distinct and meaningful features of variations from which the original distribution can be recovered.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Less Discriminatory Alternative and Interpretable XGBoost Framework for Binary Classification

Fair lending practices and model interpretability are crucial concerns in the financial industry, especially given the increasing use of complex machine learning models. In response to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's (CFPB) requirement to protect consumers against unlawful discrimination, we introduce LDA-XGB1, a novel less discriminatory alternative (LDA) machine learning model for fair and interpretable binary classification. LDA-XGB1 is developed through biobjective optimization that balances accuracy and fairness, with both objectives formulated using binning and information value. It leverages the predictive power and computational efficiency of XGBoost while ensuring inherent model interpretability, including the enforcement of monotonic constraints. We evaluate LDA-XGB1 on two datasets: SimuCredit, a simulated credit approval dataset, and COMPAS, a real-world recidivism prediction dataset. Our results demonstrate that LDA-XGB1 achieves an effective balance between predictive accuracy, fairness, and interpretability, often outperforming traditional fair lending models. This approach equips financial institutions with a powerful tool to meet regulatory requirements for fair lending while maintaining the advantages of advanced machine learning techniques.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Inherently Interpretable Tree Ensemble Learning

Tree ensemble models like random forests and gradient boosting machines are widely used in machine learning due to their excellent predictive performance. However, a high-performance ensemble consisting of a large number of decision trees lacks sufficient transparency and explainability. In this paper, we demonstrate that when shallow decision trees are used as base learners, the ensemble learning algorithms can not only become inherently interpretable subject to an equivalent representation as the generalized additive models but also sometimes lead to better generalization performance. First, an interpretation algorithm is developed that converts the tree ensemble into the functional ANOVA representation with inherent interpretability. Second, two strategies are proposed to further enhance the model interpretability, i.e., by adding constraints in the model training stage and post-hoc effect pruning. Experiments on simulations and real-world datasets show that our proposed methods offer a better trade-off between model interpretation and predictive performance, compared with its counterpart benchmarks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Automatic Generation of Behavioral Test Cases For Natural Language Processing Using Clustering and Prompting

Recent work in behavioral testing for natural language processing (NLP) models, such as Checklist, is inspired by related paradigms in software engineering testing. They allow evaluation of general linguistic capabilities and domain understanding, hence can help evaluate conceptual soundness and identify model weaknesses. However, a major challenge is the creation of test cases. The current packages rely on semi-automated approach using manual development which requires domain expertise and can be time consuming. This paper introduces an automated approach to develop test cases by exploiting the power of large language models and statistical techniques. It clusters the text representations to carefully construct meaningful groups and then apply prompting techniques to automatically generate Minimal Functionality Tests (MFT). The well-known Amazon Reviews corpus is used to demonstrate our approach. We analyze the behavioral test profiles across four different classification algorithms and discuss the limitations and strengths of those models.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

PiML Toolbox for Interpretable Machine Learning Model Development and Diagnostics

PiML (read $π$-ML, /`pai`em`el/) is an integrated and open-access Python toolbox for interpretable machine learning model development and model diagnostics. It is designed with machine learning workflows in both low-code and high-code modes, including data pipeline, model training and tuning, model interpretation and explanation, and model diagnostics and comparison. The toolbox supports a growing list of interpretable models (e.g. GAM, GAMI-Net, XGB1/XGB2) with inherent local and/or global interpretability. It also supports model-agnostic explainability tools (e.g. PFI, PDP, LIME, SHAP) and a powerful suite of model-agnostic diagnostics (e.g. weakness, reliability, robustness, resilience, fairness). Integration of PiML models and tests to existing MLOps platforms for quality assurance are enabled by flexible high-code APIs. Furthermore, PiML toolbox comes with a comprehensive user guide and hands-on examples, including the applications for model development and validation in banking. The project is available at https://github.com/SelfExplainML/PiML-Toolbox.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Interpretable Machine Learning based on Functional ANOVA Framework: Algorithms and Comparisons

In the early days of machine learning (ML), the emphasis was on developing complex algorithms to achieve best predictive performance. To understand and explain the model results, one had to rely on post hoc explainability techniques, which are known to have limitations. Recently, with the recognition that interpretability is just as important, researchers are compromising on small increases in predictive performance to develop algorithms that are inherently interpretable. While doing so, the ML community has rediscovered the use of low-order functional ANOVA (fANOVA) models that have been known in the statistical literature for some time. This paper starts with a description of challenges with post hoc explainability and reviews the fANOVA framework with a focus on main effects and second-order interactions. This is followed by an overview of two recently developed techniques: Explainable Boosting Machines or EBM (Lou et al., 2013) and GAMI-Net (Yang et al., 2021b). The paper proposes a new algorithm, called GAMI-Lin-T, that also uses trees like EBM, but it does linear fits instead of piecewise constants within the partitions. There are many other differences, including the development of a new interaction filtering algorithm. Finally, the paper uses simulated and real datasets to compare selected ML algorithms. The results show that GAMI-Lin-T and GAMI-Net have comparable performances, and both are generally better than EBM.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Enhancing Robustness of Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees through One-Hot Encoding and Regularization

Gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDT) are widely used and highly effective machine learning approach for tabular data modeling. However, their complex structure may lead to low robustness against small covariate perturbation in unseen data. In this study, we apply one-hot encoding to convert a GBDT model into a linear framework, through encoding of each tree leaf to one dummy variable. This allows for the use of linear regression techniques, plus a novel risk decomposition for assessing the robustness of a GBDT model against covariate perturbations. We propose to enhance the robustness of GBDT models by refitting their linear regression forms with $L_1$ or $L_2$ regularization. Theoretical results are obtained about the effect of regularization on the model performance and robustness. It is demonstrated through numerical experiments that the proposed regularization approach can enhance the robustness of the one-hot-encoded GBDT models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Explaining Adverse Actions in Credit Decisions Using Shapley Decomposition

When a financial institution declines an application for credit, an adverse action (AA) is said to occur. The applicant is then entitled to an explanation for the negative decision. This paper focuses on credit decisions based on a predictive model for probability of default and proposes a methodology for AA explanation. The problem involves identifying the important predictors responsible for the negative decision and is straightforward when the underlying model is additive. However, it becomes non-trivial even for linear models with interactions. We consider models with low-order interactions and develop a simple and intuitive approach based on first principles. We then show how the methodology generalizes to the well-known Shapely decomposition and the recently proposed concept of Baseline Shapley (B-Shap). Unlike other Shapley techniques in the literature for local interpretability of machine learning results, B-Shap is computationally tractable since it involves just function evaluations. An illustrative case study is used to demonstrate the usefulness of the method. The paper also discusses situations with highly correlated predictors and desirable properties of fitted models in the credit-lending context, such as monotonicity and continuity.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Traversing the Local Polytopes of ReLU Neural Networks: A Unified Approach for Network Verification

Although neural networks (NNs) with ReLU activation functions have found success in a wide range of applications, their adoption in risk-sensitive settings has been limited by the concerns on robustness and interpretability. Previous works to examine robustness and to improve interpretability partially exploited the piecewise linear function form of ReLU NNs. In this paper, we explore the unique topological structure that ReLU NNs create in the input space, identifying the adjacency among the partitioned local polytopes and developing a traversing algorithm based on this adjacency. Our polytope traversing algorithm can be adapted to verify a wide range of network properties related to robustness and interpretability, providing an unified approach to examine the network behavior. As the traversing algorithm explicitly visits all local polytopes, it returns a clear and full picture of the network behavior within the traversed region. The time and space complexity of the traversing algorithm is determined by the number of a ReLU NN's partitioning hyperplanes passing through the traversing region.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Designing Inherently Interpretable Machine Learning Models

Interpretable machine learning (IML) becomes increasingly important in highly regulated industry sectors related to the health and safety or fundamental rights of human beings. In general, the inherently IML models should be adopted because of their transparency and explainability, while black-box models with model-agnostic explainability can be more difficult to defend under regulatory scrutiny. For assessing inherent interpretability of a machine learning model, we propose a qualitative template based on feature effects and model architecture constraints. It provides the design principles for high-performance IML model development, with examples given by reviewing our recent works on ExNN, GAMI-Net, SIMTree, and the Aletheia toolkit for local linear interpretability of deep ReLU networks. We further demonstrate how to design an interpretable ReLU DNN model with evaluation of conceptual soundness for a real case study of predicting credit default in home lending. We hope that this work will provide a practical guide of developing inherently IML models in high risk applications in banking industry, as well as other sectors.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Supervised Linear Dimension-Reduction Methods: Review, Extensions, and Comparisons

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a well-known linear dimension-reduction method that has been widely used in data analysis and modeling. It is an unsupervised learning technique that identifies a suitable linear subspace for the input variable that contains maximal variation and preserves as much information as possible. PCA has also been used in prediction models where the original, high-dimensional space of predictors is reduced to a smaller, more manageable, set before conducting regression analysis. However, this approach does not incorporate information in the response during the dimension-reduction stage and hence can have poor predictive performance. To address this concern, several supervised linear dimension-reduction techniques have been proposed in the literature. This paper reviews selected techniques, extends some of them, and compares their performance through simulations. Two of these techniques, partial least squares (PLS) and least-squares PCA (LSPCA), consistently outperform the others in this study.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

SHAP values for Explaining CNN-based Text Classification Models

Deep neural networks are increasingly used in natural language processing (NLP) models. However, the need to interpret and explain the results from complex algorithms are limiting their widespread adoption in regulated industries such as banking. There has been recent work on interpretability of machine learning algorithms with structured data. But there are only limited techniques for NLP applications where the problem is more challenging due to the size of the vocabulary, high-dimensional nature, and the need to consider textual coherence and language structure. This paper develops a methodology to compute SHAP values for local explainability of CNN-based text classification models. The approach is also extended to compute global scores to assess the importance of features. The results are illustrated on sentiment analysis of Amazon Electronic Review data.

cs.CL↗