arXiv subjects

Ahmed Abolfadl

Publications and source records attributed to Ahmed Abolfadl.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

KONTOGRAPH: Verified Point-in-Time Feature Consistency and Amortised Explanation for Real-Time Anti-Money Laundering under a 200 ms Decision Budget

Regulation (EU) 2024/886 obliges European payment service providers to settle euro credit transfers in under ten seconds, around the clock. This removes both the overnight batch window in which anti-money-laundering (AML) analytics traditionally ran and the settlement delay that made recovery possible, forcing detection, explanation and decision inside a single-digit-second envelope. We present KONTOGRAPH, an end-to-end AML pipeline for the SEPA Instant rail built under a self-imposed 200 ms 99th-percentile budget, and report an empirical study on 1,562,860 simulated payments with injected typologies and deliberately incomplete labels. Three findings are of interest beyond the system itself. First, a temporal graph network with per-node memory improves PR-AUC over a gradient-boosted tabular baseline from 0.0053 to 0.1717, a paired day-blocked bootstrap difference of +0.166 with 95% CI [0.105, 0.241]; per-node memory alone more than doubles the score. Second, expressing each feature once and compiling it to three execution backends, with equivalence enforced by property-based tests that perturb the future, surfaced three point-in-time violations that code review had passed--each of which would have inflated reported performance. Third, and most consequential for practice, exporting the deployed tree ensemble to ONNX changed only $7.4 \times 10^{-8}$ in mean score yet altered 0.26% of decisions and inflated the alert volume by 12%, because 32-bit accumulation perturbs scores across a cost-optimal threshold of $3.98 \times 10^{-4}$. We argue that a serving-format conversion must be treated as a model change until measured, and that fidelity metrics for subgraph explainers can be vacuous when candidate neighbourhoods are small--a null result we report in full.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

AutoCluster, AutoTopicModeling, AutoTrendAnalysis: A Complete AutoML Pipeline for Predicting Emerging Trends

Predicting emerging trends is vital for businesses, researchers, and policymakers; yet traditional approaches often lack scalability and adaptability. This paper presents a trend prediction framework based on Automated Machine Learning (AutoML), designed to extract insights from textual datasets with temporal attributes. The system ingests subject-specific textual entries accompanied by a date field. The pipeline begins with preprocessing and embedding, followed by AutoClustering, which uses meta-learning to select the optimal clustering algorithm. AutoTopicModeling then applies successive halving to identify the best topic modeling method: Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA), BERTopic, or Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) based on the coherence score for each cluster. For trend forecasting, AutoTrendAnalysis evaluates multiple models: Facebook Prophet, AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) selecting the most accurate based on Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), either through successive halving or exhaustive comparison. Topics are classified as strong signals, weak signals, or noise based on forecasting outcomes, enabling the identification of emerging trends. By automating clustering, topic modeling, and time series forecasting, this research enhances trend prediction accuracy while reducing manual effort. The proposed system offers a scalable and user-friendly solution suitable for real-time applications and stakeholders with limited machine learning expertise. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed system's best trial achieves a final RMSE of 7.099, indicating high predictive accuracy.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2026

Forecasting Technological Directions in Wireless Networks and Mobile Computing via AutoML Framework

The exponential increase in scientific publications has driven the emergence of new trends. Accurate forecasting of these developments is essential for researchers and professionals to stay updated with advancements in the field. This study presents an automated pipeline for trend prediction in the wireless networks and mobile computing domain by integrating clustering, topic modeling, and time series analysis. The process begins with the collection of 127,820 abstracts from high-impact journals and conferences, followed by extensive preprocessing and semantic embedding using the SPECTER model. AutoCluster applies meta-learning to select the most suitable clustering algorithm based on the dataset meta-features, ensuring semantically coherent groupings. AutoTopicModeling then employs a successive halving strategy to identify the best-performing topic model per cluster, followed by LLM-assisted topic labeling and optional label generalization. Finally, AutoTrendAnalysis transforms topic-labeled data into time series and applies forecasting models -ARIMA, STL, Prophet, or LSTM - to predict future topic popularity. Topics are classified as strong, weak, or noise signals based on forecast trajectories, offering interpretable insights into emerging and declining research themes. The framework is scalable, adaptive, and designed for robust trend analysis across scientific domains. Experimental results demonstrated high predictive accuracy, achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 36.76.

cs.DL↗