arXiv subjects

Ahmed Cherif

Publications and source records attributed to Ahmed Cherif.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Trend strength predicts when generative foundation models win: a power-controlled benchmark, a mechanism, and an actionable selection rule

Pretrained generative foundation models cast forecasting as conditional generation from a learned predictive distribution and forecast unseen series zero-shot. We establish three results that turn their reported success into an actionable, mechanistic understanding. First (a positive benchmark result): on a power-controlled study of 1728 rolling-origin forecasts over 36 series from 19 datasets spanning the full range of STL trend strength (F_T in [0.17, 1.00]), a zero-shot Chronos model significantly outperforms four strong classical baselines -- drift, seasonal-naive, Theta, and additive Holt-Winters/ETS -- with the best mean MASE (1.187 vs. Theta 1.337, ETS 1.656; Friedman chi^2 = 46.08, p = 8.75e-09; Holm-corrected Wilcoxon p <= 0.015 against every baseline; a Nemenyi critical difference separating it from the classical pack). Second (a novel, quantified mechanism): a controlled synthetic experiment with a known trend-generating process shows why -- and reveals that the win does not come from better trend extrapolation. When the true trend is linear, damped, or exponential, additive ETS tracks the slope (slope-tracking ratio 1.02, 1.34, 0.98) whereas Chronos systematically under-extrapolates, behaving as a trend-shrinkage estimator (ratio 0.80, 0.49, 0.36). Third (an actionable selection rule): because the advantage is a shrinkage effect, it is predictable from trend strength alone -- the generative model wins 78% of low-trend series but only 44% of high-trend ones, and its edge over ETS is significant on the low-trend stratum (0.982 vs. 1.671, p = 0.002) yet a tie on the high-trend stratum (p = 0.18). Trend strength, computable before forecasting from the training context alone, is therefore a practical a-priori indicator of when to deploy a foundation model. We additionally document a calibration shortfall (80% intervals cover 0.77).

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

AgentMemBench: A Systematic Benchmark for Evaluating Long-Term Memory Management Strategies in Conversational AI Agents

Long-term memory remains a critical bottleneck for conversational AI agents, whose finite context windows cannot support coherent recall across thousands of turns. We present AgentMemBench, a unified, reproducible benchmark evaluating five memory management strategies under identical conditions: in-context windowing (ICW), external key-value store (EKV), graph-based episodic memory (GEM), compression-based summarisation (CBS), and web-augmented memory (WAM). All are assessed across three public datasets covering long-term multi-session dialogue (LoCoMo), task-oriented document grounding (MultiDoc2Dial), and persona-grounded multi-session chat (MSC), using Recall@k, MRR, nDCG@k, Answer F1, an LLM-judge Faithfulness score, Memory Footprint, and Latency over 491 annotated question turns. Generation and judging both use Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct (4-bit), with greedy decoding for determinism. Our results show that (1) EKV dominates on every quality axis (macro Recall@5 0.792, MRR 0.677, F1 0.156, Faithfulness 0.354); (2) long-range recall is decisive: on LoCoMo, where the gold turn lies many sessions back, ICW, WAM, GEM, and CBS retrieve almost nothing (Recall@5 <= 0.005) while EKV alone reaches 0.573, showing that recency windows, summaries, and entity graphs collapse at long horizons and only dense retrieval scales; (3) CBS is the runner-up on retrieval (0.556); (4) WAM equals ICW on in-corpus recall by construction, since external results carry no in-corpus provenance; and (5) EKV's recall advantage carries a footprint cost (~5,100 vs ~300 tokens for ICW/WAM), an explicit accuracy-efficiency trade-off. We additionally evaluate two published memory systems (MemGPT/Letta, HippoRAG) against the same harness, and release all code, environment, and result artefacts for full reproducibility.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

BFORE: Butterfly-Firefly Optimized Retinex Enhancement for Low-Light Image Quality Improvement

Low-light images suffer from poor visibility, noise, and color distortion. Existing Retinex-based enhancement methods rely on manually tuned parameters that do not generalize across different lighting conditions. This paper proposes BFORE (Butterfly-Firefly Optimized Retinex Enhancement), a framework that automatically finds the best enhancement parameters for each image. BFORE works in two phases: (1) a Butterfly Optimization Algorithm (BOA) searches for optimal Multi-Scale Retinex with Color Restoration (MSRCR) parameters, then (2) a Firefly Algorithm (FA) fine-tunes gamma correction, denoising, and color parameters. Both phases maximize a Gaussian Naturalness Score (GNS), a no-reference metric that measures how natural the enhanced image looks. Standard quality metrics (PSNR, SSIM, NIQE) are computed only after optimization, ensuring zero data leakage. On 30 synthetic image pairs, BFORE achieves GNS = 0.971, outperforming the next-best method MSRCR (0.894) by 8.6%. On 115 real images from the LOL dataset, BFORE achieves GNS = 0.887, outperforming MSRCR (0.808) by 9.8%. A controlled comparison with three deep learning baselines (Zero-DCE, SCI, IAT) trained under identical conditions shows BFORE surpasses the best DL method by 14.7% in GNS. An ablation study confirms that the hybrid BOA+FA strategy significantly outperforms each optimizer in isolation, and a scalability analysis at three evaluation budgets shows that the structured optimizer significantly outperforms uniform random sampling once compute is available (p = 0.009 at 128 evaluations, p = 0.021 at 300 evaluations). All improvements are statistically significant (p < 0.0001, Wilcoxon signed-rank test). Processing time is 3-6 minutes per image on CPU, suitable for offline applications.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

HalluScan: A Systematic Benchmark for Detecting and Mitigating Hallucinations in Instruction-Following LLMs

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse natural language processing tasks, yet they remain susceptible to hallucinations -- generating content that is factually incorrect, unfaithful to provided context, or misaligned with user instructions. We present HalluScan, a comprehensive benchmark framework that systematically evaluates hallucination detection and mitigation across 72 configurations spanning 6 detection methods, 4 open-weight model families, and 3 diverse domains. We introduce three key contributions: (1) HalluScore, a novel composite metric that achieves a Pearson correlation of r = 0.41 with human expert judgments; (2) Adaptive Detection Routing (ADR), an intelligent routing algorithm achieving 2.0x cost reduction with only 0.1% AUROC degradation; and (3) systematic error cascade decomposition revealing substantial variation in hallucination error types across domains. Our experiments reveal that NLI Verification achieves the highest overall AUROC of 0.88, while RAV achieves the second-highest AUROC of 0.66.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

MSMixer: Learned Multi-Scale Temporal Mixing with Complementary Linear Shortcut for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

Long-term time series forecasting requires models that simultaneously capture rapid oscillations, medium-range periodicities, and slowly evolving macro-trends from a fixed look-back window. Existing lightweight MLP-based models typically operate on a single temporal resolution, limiting their ability to explicitly model patterns at multiple scales. We propose MSMixer, a channel-independent multi-scale MLP architecture that addresses this limitation through three complementary innovations: (i) three parallel scale branches at down-sample factors {1x, 4x, 16x} with independent MLP blocks, (ii) a learnable softmax gate that dynamically weighs branch outputs, and (iii) a DLinear complementary shortcut that provides full-window trend and seasonality context. MSMixer contains only 112K parameters at H=96 and runs at O(T) complexity. Evaluated on four ETT benchmarks with standard chronological splits and three random seeds, MSMixer achieves the lowest average MSE (0.357) among lightweight models, outperforming DLinear (0.386, -7.4%) and NLinear (0.365, -2.1%), winning 12 of 16 configurations. Against five Transformer-based baselines from the literature, MSMixer achieves best or second-best MSE in 9 of 16 configurations while using 5x fewer parameters than PatchTST. Ablation and sensitivity analyses confirm the complementary contributions of the multi-scale branches and the DLinear shortcut.

cs.LG↗