arXiv subjects

Aiwen Li

Publications and source records attributed to Aiwen Li.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Unified Server Quality Metric for Tennis

Traditional tennis rating systems (e.g., Elo) summarize overall player strength but do not isolate the independent value of serving. Using point-by-point data from Wimbledon and the U.S.\ Open, we develop serve-specific player metrics that separate serving quality from return ability and other latent factors. For each tournament and gender, we fit logistic mixed-effects models of point outcomes using serve speed, speed variability, and placement features, with crossed server and returner random intercepts to capture unobserved player strengths. From these models we derive Server Quality Scores (SQS): partially pooled, opponent-adjusted estimates of players' serving impact. In out-of-sample evaluation, SQS aligns more strongly with serve efficiency$\unicode{x2014}$the probability of winning points within three shots$\unicode{x2014}$than weighted Elo. We further benchmark SQS against task-aligned serve-stat baselines and model ablations, quantifying the incremental value of serve features and partial pooling. Associations with overall serve win percentage are smaller and dataset-dependent, and neither SQS nor weighted Elo consistently dominates that outcome. Overall, SQS is best interpreted as a measure of serve-induced short-point advantage (serve quality plus early-point conversion), complementing holistic ratings with actionable insight for coaching, forecasting, and player evaluation.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Heating Up Quasi-Monte Carlo Graph Random Features: A Diffusion Kernel Perspective

We build upon a recently introduced class of quasi-graph random features (q-GRFs), which have demonstrated the ability to yield lower variance estimators of the 2-regularized Laplacian kernel (Choromanski 2023). Our research investigates whether similar results can be achieved with alternative kernel functions, specifically the Diffusion (or Heat), Mat\'ern, and Inverse Cosine kernels. We find that the Diffusion kernel performs most similarly to the 2-regularized Laplacian, and we further explore graph types that benefit from the previously established antithetic termination procedure. Specifically, we explore Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi and Barab\'asi-Albert random graph models, Binary Trees, and Ladder graphs, with the goal of identifying combinations of specific kernel and graph type that benefit from antithetic termination. We assert that q-GRFs achieve lower variance estimators of the Diffusion (or Heat) kernel on Ladder graphs. However, the number of rungs on the Ladder graphs impacts the algorithm's performance; further theoretical results supporting our experimentation are forthcoming. This work builds upon some of the earliest Quasi-Monte Carlo methods for kernels defined on combinatorial objects, paving the way for kernel-based learning algorithms and future real-world applications in various domains.

cs.LG↗