arXiv subjects

Ajay Jasra

Publications and source records attributed to Ajay Jasra.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Multi-Index Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for partially observed Stochastic Partial Differential Equations

In this paper we consider sequential joint state and static parameter estimation given discrete time observations associated to a partially observed stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE). It is assumed that one can only estimate the hidden state using a discretization of the model. In this context, it is known that the multi-index Monte Carlo (MIMC) method of [11] can be used to improve over direct Monte Carlo from the most precise discretizaton. However, in the context of interest, it cannot be directly applied, but rather must be used within another advanced method such as sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We show how one can use the MIMC method by renormalizing the MI identity and approximating the resulting identity using the SMC$^2$ method of [5]. We prove that our approach can reduce the cost to obtain a given mean square error (MSE), relative to just using SMC$^2$ on the most precise discretization. We demonstrate this with some numerical examples.

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arXiv2020

Uncertainty modelling and computational aspects of data association

A novel solution to the smoothing problem for multi-object dynamical systems is proposed and evaluated. The systems of interest contain an unknown and varying number of dynamical objects that are partially observed under noisy and corrupted observations. An alternative representation of uncertainty is considered in order to account for the lack of information about the different aspects of this type of complex system. The corresponding statistical model can be formulated as a hierarchical model consisting of conditionally-independent hidden Markov models. This particular structure is leveraged to propose an efficient method in the context of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) by relying on an approximate solution to the corresponding filtering problem, in a similar fashion to particle MCMC. This approach is shown to outperform existing algorithms in a range of scenarios.

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arXiv2020

Multilevel Particle Filters for the Non-Linear Filtering Problem in Continuous Time

In the following article we consider the numerical approximation of the non-linear filter in continuous-time, where the observations and signal follow diffusion processes. Given access to high-frequency, but discrete-time observations, we resort to a first order time discretization of the non-linear filter, followed by an Euler discretization of the signal dynamics. In order to approximate the associated discretized non-linear filter, one can use a particle filter (PF). Under assumptions, this can achieve a mean square error of $\mathcal{O}(ε^2)$, for $ε>0$ arbitrary, such that the associated cost is $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-4})$. We prove, under assumptions, that the multilevel particle filter (MLPF) of Jasra et al (2017) can achieve a mean square error of $\mathcal{O}(ε^2)$, for cost $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-3})$. This is supported by numerical simulations in several examples.

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arXiv2020

A Wasserstein Coupled Particle Filter for Multilevel Estimation

In this paper, we consider the filtering problem for partially observed diffusions, which are regularly observed at discrete times. We are concerned with the case when one must resort to time-discretization of the diffusion process if the transition density is not available in an appropriate form. In such cases, one must resort to advanced numerical algorithms such as particle filters to consistently estimate the filter. It is also well known that the particle filter can be enhanced by considering hierarchies of discretizations and the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method, in the sense of reducing the computational effort to achieve a given mean square error (MSE). A variety of multilevel particle filters (MLPF) have been suggested in the literature, e.g., in Jasra et al., SIAM J, Numer. Anal., 55, 3068--3096. Here we introduce a new alternative that involves a resampling step based on the optimal Wasserstein coupling. We prove a central limit theorem (CLT) for the new method. On considering the asymptotic variance, we establish that in some scenarios, there is a reduction, relative to the approach in the aforementioned paper by Jasra et al., in computational effort to achieve a given MSE. These findings are confirmed in numerical examples. We also consider filtering diffusions with unstable dynamics; we empirically show that in such cases a change of measure technique seems to be required to maintain our findings.

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arXiv2020

Unbiased Estimation of the Gradient of the Log-Likelihood in Inverse Problems

We consider the problem of estimating a parameter associated to a Bayesian inverse problem. Treating the unknown initial condition as a nuisance parameter, typically one must resort to a numerical approximation of gradient of the log-likelihood and also adopt a discretization of the problem in space and/or time. We develop a new methodology to unbiasedly estimate the gradient of the log-likelihood with respect to the unknown parameter, i.e. the expectation of the estimate has no discretization bias. Such a property is not only useful for estimation in terms of the original stochastic model of interest, but can be used in stochastic gradient algorithms which benefit from unbiased estimates. Under appropriate assumptions, we prove that our estimator is not only unbiased but of finite variance. In addition, when implemented on a single processor, we show that the cost to achieve a given level of error is comparable to multilevel Monte Carlo methods, both practically and theoretically. However, the new algorithm provides the possibility for parallel computation on arbitrarily many processors without any loss of efficiency, asymptotically. In practice, this means any precision can be achieved in a fixed, finite constant time, provided that enough processors are available.

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arXiv2020

A practical and efficient approach for Bayesian quantum state estimation

Bayesian inference is a powerful paradigm for quantum state tomography, treating uncertainty in meaningful and informative ways. Yet the numerical challenges associated with sampling from complex probability distributions hampers Bayesian tomography in practical settings. In this Article, we introduce an improved, self-contained approach for Bayesian quantum state estimation. Leveraging advances in machine learning and statistics, our formulation relies on highly efficient preconditioned Crank--Nicolson sampling and a pseudo-likelihood. We theoretically analyze the computational cost, and provide explicit examples of inference for both actual and simulated datasets, illustrating improved performance with respect to existing approaches.

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arXiv2020

Unbiased Filtering of a Class of Partially Observed Diffusions

In this article we consider a Monte Carlo-based method to filter partially observed diffusions observed at regular and discrete times. Given access only to Euler discretizations of the diffusion process, we present a new procedure which can return online estimates of the filtering distribution with no discretization bias and finite variance. Our approach is based upon a novel double application of the randomization methods of Rhee & Glynn (2015) along with the multilevel particle filter (MLPF) approach of Jasra et al (2017). A numerical comparison of our new approach with the MLPF, on a single processor, shows that similar errors are possible for a mild increase in computational cost. However, the new method scales strongly to arbitrarily many processors.

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arXiv2020

Unbiased Estimation of the Solution to Zakai's Equation

In the following article we consider the non-linear filtering problem in continuous-time and in particular the solution to Zakai's equation or the normalizing constant. We develop a methodology to produce finite variance, almost surely unbiased estimators of the solution to Zakai's equation. That is, given access to only a first order discretization of solution to the Zakai equation, we present a method which can remove this discretization bias. The approach, under assumptions, is proved to have finite variance and is numerically compared to using a particular multilevel Monte Carlo method.

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arXiv2019

Bayesian Inference for Latent Chain Graphs

In this article we consider Bayesian inference for partially observed Andersson-Madigan-Perlman (AMP) Gaussian chain graph (CG) models. Such models are of particular interest in applications such as biological networks and financial time series. The model itself features a variety of constraints which make both prior modeling and computational inference challenging. We develop a framework for the aforementioned challenges, using a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for statistical inference. Our approach is illustrated on both simulated data as well as real case studies from university graduation rates and a pharmacokinetics study.

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arXiv2019

Estimation and uncertainty quantification for the output from quantum simulators

The problem of estimating certain distributions over $\{0,1\}^d$ is considered here. The distribution represents a quantum system of $d$ qubits, where there are non-trivial dependencies between the qubits. A maximum entropy approach is adopted to reconstruct the distribution from exact moments or observed empirical moments. The Robbins Monro algorithm is used to solve the intractable maximum entropy problem, by constructing an unbiased estimator of the un-normalized target with a sequential Monte Carlo sampler at each iteration. In the case of empirical moments, this coincides with a maximum likelihood estimator. A Bayesian formulation is also considered in order to quantify posterior uncertainty. Several approaches are proposed in order to tackle this challenging problem, based on recently developed methodologies. In particular, unbiased estimators of the gradient of the log posterior are constructed and used within a provably convergent Langevin-based Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The methods are illustrated on classically simulated output from quantum simulators.

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arXiv2019

A Multilevel Approach for Stochastic Nonlinear Optimal Control

We consider a class of finite time horizon nonlinear stochastic optimal control problem, where the control acts additively on the dynamics and the control cost is quadratic. This framework is flexible and has found applications in many domains. Although the optimal control admits a path integral representation for this class of control problems, efficient computation of the associated path integrals remains a challenging Monte Carlo task. The focus of this article is to propose a new Monte Carlo approach that significantly improves upon existing methodology. Our proposed methodology first tackles the issue of exponential growth in variance with the time horizon by casting optimal control estimation as a smoothing problem for a state space model associated with the control problem, and applying smoothing algorithms based on particle Markov chain Monte Carlo. To further reduce computational cost, we then develop a multilevel Monte Carlo method which allows us to obtain an estimator of the optimal control with $\mathcal{O}(ε^2)$ mean squared error with a computational cost of $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-2}\log(ε)^2)$. In contrast, a computational cost of $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-3})$ is required for existing methodology to achieve the same mean squared error. Our approach is illustrated on two numerical examples, which validate our theory.

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arXiv2018

Bridging trees for posterior inference on Ancestral Recombination Graphs

We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, implemented in software Arbores, for inferring the history of a sample of DNA sequences. Our principal innovation is a bridging procedure, previously applied only for simple stochastic processes, in which the local computations within a bridge can proceed independently of the rest of the DNA sequence, facilitating large-scale parallelisation.

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arXiv2018

Central Limit Theorems for Coupled Particle Filters

In this article we prove a new central limit theorem (CLT) for coupled particle filters (CPFs). CPFs are used for the sequential estimation of the difference of expectations w.r.t. filters which are in some sense close. Examples include the estimation of the filtering distribution associated to different parameters (finite difference estimation) and filters associated to partially observed discretized diffusion processes (PODDP) and the implementation of the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) identity. We develop new theory for CPFs and based upon several results, we propose a new CPF which approximates the maximal coupling (MCPF) of a pair of predictor distributions. In the context of ML estimation associated to PODDP with discretization $Δ_l$ we show that the MCPF and the approach in Jasra et al. (2018) have, under assumptions, an asymptotic variance that is upper-bounded by an expression that is (almost) $\mathcal{O}(Δ_l)$, uniformly in time. The $\mathcal{O}(Δ_l)$ rate preserves the so-called forward rate of the diffusion in some scenarios which is not the case for the CPF in Jasra et al (2017).

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arXiv2018

Multilevel Particle Filters for Lévy-driven stochastic differential equations

We develop algorithms for computing expectations of the laws of models associated to stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by pure Lévy processes. We consider filtering such processes and well as pricing of path dependent options. We propose a multilevel particle filter (MLPF) to address the computational issues involved in solving these continuum problems. We show via numerical simulations and theoretical results that under suitable assumptions of the discretization of the underlying driving Lévy proccess, our proposed method achieves optimal convergence rates. The cost to obtain MSE $O(ε^2)$ scales like $O(ε^{-2})$ for our method, as compared with the standard particle filter $O(ε^{-3})$.

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arXiv2018

Markov chain Simulation for Multilevel Monte Carlo

This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is associated to a continuum problem, such as a continuous-time stochastic process. It is then assumed that the associated probability measure can only be used (e.g. sampled) under a discretized approximation. In such scenarios, it is known that to achieve a target error, the computational effort can be reduced when using MLMC relative to exact sampling from the most accurate discretized probability. The ideas rely upon introducing hierarchies of the discretizations where less accurate approximations cost less to compute, and using an appropriate collapsing sum expression for the target expectation. If a suitable coupling of the probability measures in the hierarchy is achieved, then a reduction in cost is possible. This article focused on the case where exact sampling from such coupling is not possible. We show that one can construct suitably coupled MCMC kernels when given only access to MCMC kernels which are invariant with respect to each discretized probability measure. We prove, under assumptions, that this coupled MCMC approach in a ML context can reduce the cost to achieve a given error, relative to exact sampling. Our approach is illustrated on a numerical example.

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arXiv2018

Multilevel Monte Carlo for Smoothing via Transport Methods

In this article we consider recursive approximations of the smoothing distribution associated to partially observed stochastic differential equations (SDEs), which are observed discretely in time. Such models appear in a wide variety of applications including econometrics, finance and engineering. This problem is notoriously challenging, as the smoother is not available analytically and hence require numerical approximation. This usually consists by applying a time-discretization to the SDE, for instance the Euler method, and then applying a numerical (e.g. Monte Carlo) method to approximate the smoother. This has lead to a vast literature on methodology for solving such problems, perhaps the most popular of which is based upon the particle filter (PF) e.g. [9]. In the context of filtering for this class of problems, it is well-known that the particle filter can be improved upon in terms of cost to achieve a given mean squared error (MSE) for estimates. This in the sense that the computational effort can be reduced to achieve this target MSE, by using multilevel (ML) methods [12, 13, 18], via the multilevel particle filter (MLPF) [16, 20, 21]. For instance, to obtain a MSE of $\mathcal{O}(ε^2)$ for some $ε> 0$ when approximating filtering distributions associated with Euler-discretized diffusions with constant diffusion coefficients, the cost of the PF is $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-3})$ while the cost of the MLPF is $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-2}\log(ε)^2)$. In this article we consider a new approach to replace the particle filter, using transport methods in [27]. In the context of filtering, one expects that the proposed method improves upon the MLPF by yielding, under assumptions, a MSE of $\mathcal{O}(ε^2)$ for a cost of $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-2})$. This is established theoretically in an "ideal" example and numerically in numerous examples.

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arXiv2018

On Large Lag Smoothing for Hidden Markov Models

In this article we consider the smoothing problem for hidden Markov models (HMM). Given a hidden Markov chain $\{X_n\}_{n\geq 0}$ and observations $\{Y_n\}_{n\geq 0}$, our objective is to compute $\mathbb{E}[φ(X_0,\dots,X_k)|y_{0},\dots,y_n]$ for some real-valued, integrable functional $φ$ and $k$ fixed, $k \ll n$ and for some realisation $(y_0,\dots,y_n)$ of $(Y_0,\dots,Y_n)$. We introduce a novel application of the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method with a coupling based on the Knothe-Rosenblatt rearrangement. We prove that this method can approximate the afore-mentioned quantity with a mean square error (MSE) of $\mathcal{O}(ε^2)$, for arbitrary $ε>0$ with a cost of $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-2})$. This is in contrast to the same direct Monte Carlo method, which requires a cost of $\mathcal{O}(nε^{-2})$ for the same MSE. The approach we suggest is, in general, not possible to implement, so the optimal transport methodology of \cite{span} is used, which directly approximates our strategy. We show that our theoretical improvements are achieved, even under approximation, in several numerical examples.

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arXiv2018

Particle Filtering for Stochastic Navier-Stokes Signal Observed with Linear Additive Noise

We consider a non-linear filtering problem, whereby the signal obeys the stochastic Navier-Stokes equations and is observed through a linear mapping with additive noise. The setup is relevant to data assimilation for numerical weather prediction and climate modelling, where similar models are used for unknown ocean or wind velocities. We present a particle filtering methodology that uses likelihood informed importance proposals, adaptive tempering, and a small number of appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo steps. We provide a detailed design for each of these steps and show in our numerical examples that they are all crucial in terms of achieving good performance and efficiency.

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