arXiv subjects

Akash Deep

Publications and source records attributed to Akash Deep.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Discrete-Time Survival Analysis for Heart Failure Mortality Prediction

Accurate heart-failure prognosis relies on tracking clinical risk over time, yet many machine-learning applications mishandle right-censored survival data by either discarding a patient's observation time or using it as a predictor. Discarding time ignores survival context, while using follow-up time as an input feature introduces severe target leakage that inflates apparent accuracy. We address this by proposing a discrete-time person-period framework for heart-failure mortality classification. Using the UCI Heart Failure Clinical Records cohort ($n=299$, 96 deaths), we transform the data into interval-level binary outcomes and benchmark a Cox proportional hazards baseline against person-period complementary log-log GLM and GAM models, alongside person-period random forest, XGBoost, random survival forest, and DeepSurv classifiers. The person-period GLM reproduces the Cox hazard ratios and concordance, validating the transformation, while the GAM captures significant nonlinear predictor effects and provides the best balance of discrimination and generalization; the flexible classifiers achieve strong raw performance but overfit. Finally, we quantify the leakage effect directly, including observed follow-up duration raises classification AUC from roughly 0.73 to nearly 1.00, confirming that follow-up duration must not be used as a baseline predictor. Overall, these results establish a survival-aware framework that combines flexible classification with valid time-to-event structure.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Amortized Inference for Sampling Distributions Where the Bootstrap Fails

Efron's bootstrap is the default tool for estimating the sampling distribution of a statistic, yet it is provably inconsistent for maxima of bounded-support distributions, means under infinite variance, extreme quantiles, and tail-index estimators. The classical remedies, the m-out-of-n bootstrap and subsampling, require rate corrections that depend on unknown parameters and behave erratically at realistic sample sizes. We propose an amortized alternative: a neural network is trained on simulated datasets drawn from a prior over a distribution family, using single independent draws of the root T_n - T(F) scored by the pinball loss, a proper scoring rule whose population minimizer is the posterior-predictive law of the root. At test time, a single forward pass maps one dataset of n = 200 observations to its full sampling-distribution estimate, from which confidence intervals follow directly. On four canonical bootstrap-failure problems (bounded-support maximum, alpha-stable mean, Pareto tail index, and 99% value-at-risk under tempered stable returns), the method attains nominal 95% coverage, beats every feasible classical method in Wasserstein distance to the true sampling distribution, and captures over 97% of the achievable improvement where the exact Bayes-optimal answer is computable. For the value-at-risk problem no distribution-free method can reach nominal coverage at all; the learned method attains 94.7%. A single universal network with a statistic token matches all four specialists, and on real daily market returns the unchanged model averages 0.87 coverage against 0.73 for the bootstrap, as predicted by our out-of-family analysis.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Privacy-Aware Collaborative and Distributed Bayesian Optimization

We propose a collaborative meta-learning framework for distributed Bayesian optimization matching centralized performance without raw-data exchange. We show gradient sharing leaks client observations, with leakage worsening as the search converges and queries concentrate near the optimum. We evaluate a differentially private defense and characterize its privacy-utility trade-off.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Local Gaussian Correlation in the Tails: A Scarcity Diagnostic, an Optimal Local Bandwidth, and the Limits of Adaptivity

Local Gaussian correlation (LGC) measures dependence locally, making it a natural tool for tail dependence and financial contagion, but its estimates degrade in the joint tails, where they are most needed. Location-adaptive bandwidths have been tried for LGC and found inferior to a single global bandwidth; we explain why, and map the regime in which adaptivity does help. First, a diagnostic: across heavy-tailed data-generating processes the parametric marginal pre-transform is inert (it changes the integrated error only in the fourth decimal), while the binding constraint is the local effective sample size, with the replication dispersion following a Fisher variance floor sd ~ (1 - rho^2)/sqrt(eff_n). Second, theory: specializing the Hjort-Jones local-likelihood asymptotics to the bivariate Gaussian family that LGC fits, we derive the first location-specific AMISE-optimal bandwidth for LGC, b*(x) proportional to [(1 - rho^2)^2 / (f beta^2)]^(1/6) n^(-1/6), and validate its bias expansion directly (bias proportional to b^2 beta, R^2 approximately 0.9, slope-to-beta correlation 0.80). Third, a regime map: a Monte Carlo across dependence strengths shows the adaptive rule beats the global plug-in only at moderate dependence with curved surfaces. At weak dependence there is no curvature to exploit; at strong dependence finite-sample bias from the steep surface dominates, and adaptivity performs substantially worse, with an error that grows in the sample size. This explains the field's experience that global bandwidths are hard to beat, and locates the exception. Fourth, application: on volatility-filtered equity returns the adaptive estimator yields more stable tail-dependence surfaces under resampling. The message is cautionary: the binding constraint on tail LGC is data scarcity, not bandwidth placement, and no bandwidth, however optimal, can recover information the data do not contain.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Memory, Roughness, and Information Persistence in Financial Markets: A Structural Approach to Volatility Forecasting

This paper studies the joint role of long-memory dynamics,rough-volatility behavior, and persistence-based forecasting features in equity volatility modeling. We combine semiparametric long-memory estimation, rough-volatility diagnostics, and structured forecasting regressions to examine whether persistence measures contain economically meaningful forecasting information beyond conventional volatility predictors. Using a panel of 115 S&P500 constituents from November 2001 through April 2026, we document that volatility proxies exhibit substantial long-memory behavior and locally rough dynamics. The cross-sectional mean Geweke-Porter-Hudak estimate of the memory parameter is $\hat{d} = 0.226$, while the corresponding local-Whittle estimate is $\hat{d} = 0.440$, with statistical significance observed across nearly the entire panel. Rolling estimates of persistence rise substantially during the global financial crisis and the COVID period and display a positive contemporaneous association with the VIX. We then examine whether persistence-related features improve out-of-sample volatility forecasts beyond standard HAR and HAR-X benchmarks. Incorporating cross-sectional persistence aggregates, sectoral persistence measures, and persistence-by-stress interaction terms produces moderate but statistically significant forecasting improvements, particularly at longer horizons and during stress regimes. Forecast gains are strongest during periods of elevated market volatility and in volatility-managed portfolio applications. The results suggest that persistence measures may serve as useful reduced-form indicators of the duration and propagation of uncertainty in financial markets, although the paper does not claim structural identification of the economic mechanisms generating persistence.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2026

Full-Field Damage Monitoring in Architected Lattices Using In situ Electrical Impedance Tomography

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) enables non-invasive, spatially continuous reconstruction of internal conductivity distributions, providing full field sensing beyond conventional point measurements. Here, we report the first in situ implementation of EIT within a tunable architected lattice materials framework, enabling systematic exploration across a broad lattice design space while achieving real time monitoring of damage evolution, including early stage, prefracture events, in 3D printed multifunctional lattice composites. Lattices are designed via Voronoi based branch trunk branch motifs inspired by 2D wallpaper symmetries and fabricated using CNT infused photocurable resins, with nanoscale filler dispersion confirmed by field emission scanning electron microscopy. Sixteen electrodes distributed along the lattice periphery enable EIT measurements during quasi static tensile loading. Conductivity maps reconstructed using adjacent and across current injection schemes resolve sequential ligament fracture with high temporal resolution, with localised conductivity loss quantitatively coinciding with fracture sites, including regions remote from electrodes. Architectural tunability allows systematic control of EIT imaging sensitivity to early stage damage, while pronounced resistance discontinuities at failure further corroborate spatial localisation; global end to end resistance measurements complement macroscopic stress strain responses. Collectively, these results establish in situ EIT as a scalable, full field sensing modality for architected multifunctional materials, providing an experimentally validated pathway toward autonomous, intelligent materials and data rich material states that can inform digital twin frameworks for structural, biomedical, and energy related applications.

cs.ET↗

arXiv2025

Interpretable Hypothesis-Driven Trading:A Rigorous Walk-Forward Validation Framework for Market Microstructure Signals

We develop a rigorous walk-forward validation framework for algorithmic trading designed to mitigate overfitting and lookahead bias. Our methodology combines interpretable hypothesis-driven signal generation with reinforcement learning and strict out-of-sample testing. The framework enforces strict information set discipline, employs rolling window validation across 34 independent test periods, maintains complete interpretability through natural language hypothesis explanations, and incorporates realistic transaction costs and position constraints. Validating five market microstructure patterns across 100 US equities from 2015 to 2024, the system yields modest annualized returns (0.55%, Sharpe ratio 0.33) with exceptional downside protection (maximum drawdown -2.76%) and market-neutral characteristics (beta = 0.058). Performance exhibits strong regime dependence, generating positive returns during high-volatility periods (0.60% quarterly, 2020-2024) while underperforming in stable markets (-0.16%, 2015-2019). We report statistically insignificant aggregate results (p-value 0.34) to demonstrate a reproducible, honest validation protocol that prioritizes interpretability and extends naturally to advanced hypothesis generators, including large language models. The key empirical finding reveals that daily OHLCV-based microstructure signals require elevated information arrival and trading activity to function effectively. The framework provides complete mathematical specifications and open-source implementation, establishing a template for rigorous trading system evaluation that addresses the reproducibility crisis in quantitative finance research. For researchers, practitioners, and regulators, this work demonstrates that interpretable algorithmic trading strategies can be rigorously validated without sacrificing transparency or regulatory compliance.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2025

Probability Weighting Meets Heavy Tails: An Econometric Framework for Behavioral Asset Pricing

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's $t$ distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's $t$ specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2025

Binary Tree Option Pricing Under Market Microstructure Effects: A Random Forest Approach

We propose a machine learning-based extension of the classical binomial option pricing model that incorporates key market microstructure effects. Traditional models assume frictionless markets, overlooking empirical features such as bid-ask spreads, discrete price movements, and serial return correlations. Our framework augments the binomial tree with path-dependent transition probabilities estimated via Random Forest classifiers trained on high-frequency market data. This approach preserves no-arbitrage conditions while embedding real-world trading dynamics into the pricing model. Using 46,655 minute-level observations of SPY from January to June 2025, we achieve an AUC of 88.25% in forecasting one-step price movements. Order flow imbalance is identified as the most influential predictor, contributing 43.2% to feature importance. After resolving time-scaling inconsistencies in tree construction, our model yields option prices that deviate by 13.79% from Black-Scholes benchmarks, highlighting the impact of microstructure on fair value estimation. While computational limitations restrict the model to short-term derivatives, our results offer a robust, data-driven alternative to classical pricing methods grounded in empirical market behavior.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2025

Bayesian Joint Model of Multi-Sensor and Failure Event Data for Multi-Mode Failure Prediction

Modern industrial systems are often subject to multiple failure modes, and their conditions are monitored by multiple sensors, generating multiple time-series signals. Additionally, time-to-failure data are commonly available. Accurately predicting a system's remaining useful life (RUL) requires effectively leveraging multi-sensor time-series data alongside multi-mode failure event data. In most existing models, failure modes and RUL prediction are performed independently, ignoring the inherent relationship between these two tasks. Some models integrate multiple failure modes and event prediction using black-box machine learning approaches, which lack statistical rigor and cannot characterize the inherent uncertainty in the model and data. This paper introduces a unified approach to jointly model the multi-sensor time-series data and failure time concerning multiple failure modes. This proposed model integrate a Cox proportional hazards model, a Convolved Multi-output Gaussian Process, and multinomial failure mode distributions in a hierarchical Bayesian framework with corresponding priors, enabling accurate prediction with robust uncertainty quantification. Posterior distributions are effectively obtained by Variational Bayes, and prediction is performed with Monte Carlo sampling. The advantages of the proposed model is validated through extensive numerical and case studies with jet-engine dataset.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Risk-Adjusted Performance of Random Forest Models in High-Frequency Trading

Because of the theoretical challenges posed by the Efficient Market Hypothesis to technical analysis, the effectiveness of technical indicators in high-frequency trading remains inadequately explored, particularly at the minute-level frequency, where effects of the microstructure of the market dominate. This study evaluates the integration of traditional technical indicators with random forest regression models using minute-level SPY data, analyzing 13 distinct model configurations. Our empirical results reveal a stark contrast between in-sample and out-of-sample performance, with $R^2$ values deteriorating from 0.749--0.812 during training to negative values in testing. A feature importance analysis demonstrates that primary price-based features dominate the predictions made by the model, accounting for over 60% of the importance, while established technical indicators, such as RSI and Bollinger Bands, account for only 14%--15%. Although the indicator-enhanced models achieved superior risk-adjusted metrics, with Rachev ratios between 0.919 and 0.961, they consistently underperformed a simple buy-and-hold strategy, generating returns ranging from -2.4% to -3.9%. These findings challenge conventional assumptions about the usefulness of technical indicators in algorithmic trading, suggesting that in high-frequency contexts, they may be more relevant to risk management rather than to predicting returns. For practitioners and researchers, our findings indicate that successful high-frequency trading strategies should focus on adaptive feature selection and regime-specific modeling rather than relying on traditional technical indicators, as well as indicating the critical importance of robust out-of-sample testing in the development of a model.

q-fin.CP↗