arXiv subjects

Akhil Rao

Publications and source records attributed to Akhil Rao.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Estimated Demand for Mega-Constellation Internet Service

The near-term growth of the commercial space economy and sustainability of the low-Earth orbit (LEO) environment depends on the commercial prospects of large LEO satellite telecommunications constellations (``mega-constellations''). If successful, mega-constellations can spur competition between launch providers, which may lead to lower launch prices. They may also demand orbital sustainability services and/or generate additional collision risk, which may in turn affect space sustainability interests. Consumer demand for mega-constellations' internet services is critical to their commercial success. This analysis presents a method to estimate consumer demand for mega-constellations' internet services, using SpaceX's Starlink over December 2021--November 2023 as an example. This analysis finds that Starlink users are highly concentrated in the wealthiest countries. It also finds that consumer demand for Starlink is growing more slowly than orbital capacity is being added and more slowly than demand for non-Starlink internet overall. Continuation of these trends may indicate that the market for mega-constellation internet is less lucrative than previous forecasts have indicated.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Prices and Competition in Vertically Integrated Launch Markets

Over the last 15 years the number of U.S. orbital launches has grown by roughly an order of magnitude. About three-quarters of those launches were on SpaceX's Falcon 9 vehicle, and roughly three-fifths of those Falcon launches deployed SpaceX's own Starlink constellation. A back-of-envelope Wright's law calculation suggests this increase in experience should have driven the Falcon 9's real launch cost down by roughly 70\% over 2012--2026. Yet over the same period the advertised price fell by less than 6\% in real terms. Why? I develop a simple model of competition and vertical integration between launchers and constellations. The launch market is Bertrand; the constellation services market is Cournot; one launcher is integrated with its captive constellation. Three results follow. First, the removal of double marginalization raises the captive constellation's equilibrium size. If the integrated launcher obtains cost reductions from this experience, they are captured as capacity rent rather than passed through to external buyers. Second, the integrated launcher prices launches to be indifferent between serving internal and external demand, leaving more residual demand for a competing launcher to monopolize and pushing the equilibrium launch price up. Third, the same capacity rent that holds the equilibrium launch price up can attract entry to the launch segment, while the expansion of the captive constellation deters entry on the constellation side.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Competitive satellite placement and the economic geography of the geostationary orbit

The geostationary orbit (GEO) carries most of the world's satellite communications revenue. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) coordinates and records frequency assignments and associated orbital positions through national administrations, without creating a market price or property title for longitude. We ask how commercial operators locate along GEO within this administrative regime. Using a spatial sorting model, we show that commercial satellites are placed in proportion to the reachable income below a GEO longitude, discounted by viewing angle at a spatial discount rate. We estimate a placement elasticity close to one, so that satellite counts above a longitude rise proportionately with reachable income. Government satellites, by contrast, are placed in proportion to the population a GEO longitude covers. We validate the commercial model by showing that parameters estimated on 2012 placements predict the 2021 distribution well and that the model rejects treating Chinese GDP as fully addressable to the international commercial fleet. Counterfactuals suggest that competition from low-Earth orbit (LEO) systems may tilt GEO usage toward Asia-Pacific, while higher spatial discounting may concentrate it over high-GDP countries.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Public Infrastructure Investments for Space Market Development

Advanced space technology systems often face high fixed costs, can serve limited non-government demand, and are significantly driven by non-market motivations. While increased entrepreneurial activity and national ambitions in space have encouraged planners at public space agencies to develop markets around such systems, the very factors that make the recent growth of the space economy so remarkable also challenge planners' efforts to develop and sustain markets for space-related goods and services. I propose a graphical framework to visualize the number of competitors a market can sustain as a function of the industry's cost structure; the distribution of government support across direct purchases, direct investments, and shared infrastructure; and the magnitude of non-government demand. Building on public goods theory, the framework shows how marginal dollars invested in shared infrastructure can create non-rival benefits supporting more competitors per dollar than direct purchases or subsidies. I demonstrate the framework with a stylized application inspired by NASA's Commercial LEO Destinations program. Under cost and demand conditions consistent with public data, independent stations generate industry-wide losses of \$355 million annually, while shared core infrastructure enables industry-wide profits of \$154 million annually. I also outline key directions for future research on public investment and market development strategies for advanced technologies.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Close Encounters of the LEO Kind: Spillovers and Resilience in Partially-Automated Traffic Systems

Traffic systems are becoming increasingly automated. How will automated objects interact with non-automated objects? How will partially-automated systems handle large disruptions? Low-Earth orbit (LEO) -- filled with thousands of automated and non-automated satellites and many more uncontrollable pieces of debris -- offers a useful laboratory for these questions. I exploit the COSMOS-1408 (C1408) anti-satellite missile test of November 2021 -- a large and exogenous shock to the orbital environment -- to study how an unexpected disruption affects a partially-automated traffic system. I use publicly-available close approach data, network theory, and an econometric analysis of the C1408 test to study the effect of close encounters with new fragments on the configuration of objects in orbit. I document spillover effects of close encounters with C1408 fragments, heterogeneity in impacts across operators, and changes in system-level resilience to new shocks. These results shed light on the nature of partially-automated traffic systems, and provide a basis for new models to anticipate and mitigate space traffic disruptions.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

OPUS: An Integrated Assessment Model for Satellites and Orbital Debris

An increasingly salient public policy challenge is how to manage the growing number of satellites in orbit, including large constellations. Many policy initiatives have been proposed that attempt to address the problem from different angles, but there is a paucity of analytical tools to help policymakers evaluate the efficacy of these different proposals and any potential counterproductive outcomes. To help address this problem, this paper summarizes work done to develop an experimental integrated assessment model -- Orbital Debris Propagators Unified with Economic Systems (OPUS) -- that combines both astrodynamics of the orbital population and economic behavior of space actors. For a given set of parameters, the model first utilizes a given astrodynamic propagator to assess the state of objects in orbit. It then uses a set of user-defined economic and policy parameters -- e.g. launch prices, disposal regulations -- to model how actors will respond to the economic incentives created by a given scenario. For the purposes of testing, the MIT Orbital Capacity Tool (MOCAT) version 4S was used as the primary astrodynamics propagator to simulate the true expected target collision probability ($p_c$) for a given end-of-life (EOL) disposal plan. To demonstrate propagator-agnosticism, a Gaussian mixture probability hypothesis density (GMPHD) filter was also used to simulate $p_c$. We also explore economic policy instruments to improve both sustainability of and economic welfare from orbit use. In doing so, we demonstrate that this hybrid approach can serve as a useful tool for evaluating policy proposals for managing orbital congestion. We also discuss areas where this work can be made more robust and expanded to include additional policy considerations.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2023

Emissions Assessment of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Broadband Megaconstellations; Starlink, OneWeb and Kuiper

The growth of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) broadband satellite megaconstellations is rapidly increasing the number of rocket launches. While improving broadband Internet helps achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), there are also significant environmental emissions produced from burning rocket fuels. We present sustainability analytics for phase 1 of the three main LEO constellations including Amazon Kuiper (3,236 satellites), Eutelsat Group's OneWeb (648 satellites), and SpaceX Starlink (4,425 satellites). We find that LEO megaconstellations provide substantially improved broadband speeds for rural and remote communities but are roughly 6-8 times more emissions intensive (250 kg CO2eq/subscriber/year) than comparative terrestrial 4G mobile broadband. Policy makers must carefully consider the trade-off between improving broadband Internet to further the SDGs while mitigating the growing space sector environmental footprint, particularly regarding phase 2 plans to launch an order-of-magnitude more satellites.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

The Economics of Orbit Use: Open Access, External Costs, and Runaway Debris Growth

We present a dynamic physico-economic model of Earth orbit use with endogenous satellite collision risk to study conditions under which debris-producing collisions between orbiting bodies result in debris growth that may render Earth's orbits unusable, an outcome known as Kessler Syndrome. We characterize the dynamics of objects in orbit under open access as well as when external costs -- the impact of an additional satellite launch on the collision risk faced by all satellites -- are internalized, and we show that Kessler Syndrome can emerge in both cases. Finally, we show that once the economic incentives of satellite launching are modeled, for Kessler Syndrome to emerge, autocatalytic debris growth is essential. In our main calibration, Kessler Syndrome can emerge anytime between the year 2040 and the year 2184, with the precise date being very sensitive to the calibration of autocatalytic debris growth parameters.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Fires and Local Labor Markets

We study the dynamic effects of fires on county labor markets in the US using a novel geophysical measure of fire exposure based on satellite imagery. We find increased fire exposure causes lower employment growth in the short and medium run, with medium-run effects being linked to migration. We also document heterogeneous effects across counties by education and industrial concentration levels, states of the business cycle, and fire size. By overcoming challenges in measuring fire impacts, we identify vulnerable places and economic states, offering guidance on tailoring relief efforts and contributing to a broader understanding of natural disasters' economic impacts.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

International cooperation and competition in orbit-use management

Orbit-use management efforts can be structured as binding national regulatory policies or as self-enforcing international treaties. New treaties to control space debris growth appear unlikely in the near future. Spacefaring nations can pursue national regulatory policies, though regulatory competition and open access to orbit make their effectiveness unclear. We develop a game-theoretic model of national regulatory policies and self-enforcing international treaties for orbit-use management in the face of open access, regulatory competition, and catastrophe. While open access limits the effectiveness of national policies, market-access control ensures the policies can improve environmental quality. A large enough stock of legacy debris ensures existence of a global regulatory equilibrium where all nations choose to levy environmental regulations on all satellites. The global regulatory equilibrium supports a self-enforcing treaty to avert catastrophe by making it costlier to leave the treaty and free ride.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2022

An integrated debris environment assessment model

Launch behaviors are a key determinant of the orbital environment. Physical and economic forces such as fragmentations and changing launch costs, or policies like post-mission disposal (PMD) compliance requirements, will alter the relative attractiveness of different orbits and lead operators to adjust their launch behaviors. However, integrating models of adaptive launch behavior with models of the debris environment remains an open challenge. We present a statistical framework for integrating theoretically-grounded models of launch behavior with evolutionary models of the low-Earth orbit (LEO) environment. We implement this framework using data on satellite launches, the orbital environment, launch vehicle prices, sectoral revenues, and government budgets over 2007-2020. The data are combined with a multi-shell and multi-species Particle-in-a-Box (PIB) model of the debris environment and a two-stage budgeting model of commercial, civil government, and defense decisions to allocate new launches across orbital shells. We demonstrate the framework's capabilities in three counterfactual scenarios: unexpected fragmentation events in highly-used regions, a sharp decrease in the cost of accessing lower parts of LEO, and increasing compliance with 25-year PMD guidelines. Substitution across orbits based on their evolving characteristics and the behavior of other operators induces notable changes in the debris environment relative to models without behavioral channels.

econ.GN↗