arXiv subjects

Alan Dasilva

Publications and source records attributed to Alan Dasilva.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Parametric quantile autoregressive conditional duration models with application to intraday value-at-risk

The modeling of high-frequency data that qualify financial asset transactions has been an area of relevant interest among statisticians and econometricians -- above all, the analysis of time series of financial durations. Autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models have been the main tool for modeling financial transaction data, where duration is usually defined as the time interval between two successive events. These models are usually specified in terms of a time-varying mean (or median) conditional duration. In this paper, a new extension of ACD models is proposed which is built on the basis of log-symmetric distributions reparametrized by their quantile. The proposed quantile log-symmetric conditional duration autoregressive model allows us to model different percentiles instead of the traditionally used conditional mean (or median) duration. We carry out an in-depth study of theoretical properties and practical issues, such as parameter estimation using maximum likelihood method and diagnostic analysis based on residuals. A detailed Monte Carlo simulation study is also carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed models and estimation method in retrieving the true parameter values as well as to evaluate a form of residuals. Finally, the proposed class of models is applied to a price duration data set and then used to derive a semi-parametric intraday value-at-risk (IVaR) model.

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arXiv2022

Parametric quantile autoregressive moving average models with exogenous terms applied to Walmart sales data

Parametric autoregressive moving average models with exogenous terms (ARMAX) have been widely used in the literature. Usually, these models consider a conditional mean or median dynamics, which limits the analysis. In this paper, we introduce a class of quantile ARMAX models based on log-symmetric distributions. This class is indexed by quantile and dispersion parameters. It not only accommodates the possibility to model bimodal and/or light/heavy-tailed distributed data but also accommodates heteroscedasticity. We estimate the model parameters by using the conditional maximum likelihood method. Furthermore, we carry out an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study to evaluate the performance of the proposed models and the estimation method in retrieving the true parameter values. Finally, the proposed class of models and the estimation method are applied to a dataset on the competition "M5 Forecasting - Accuracy" that corresponds to the daily sales history of several Walmart products. The results indicate that the proposed log-symmetric quantile ARMAX models have good performance in terms of model fitting and forecasting.

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arXiv2021

Scale-mixture Birnbaum-Saunders quantile regression models applied to personal accident insurance data

The modeling of personal accident insurance data has been a topic of extreme relevance in the insurance literature. This kind of data often exhibits positive skewness and heavy tails. In this work, we propose a new quantile regression model based on the scale-mixture Birnbaum-Saunders distribution for modeling personal accident insurance data. The maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters are obtained via the EM algorithm. Two Monte Carlo simulation studies are performed using the R software. The first study aims to analyze the performances of the EM algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates, and the randomized quantile and generalized Cox-Snell residuals. In the second simulation study, the size and power of the the Wald, likelihood ratio, score and gradient tests are evaluated. The two simulation studies are conducted considering different quantiles of interest and sample sizes. Finally, a real insurance data set is analyzed to illustrate the proposed approach.

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arXiv2020

Log-symmetric quantile regression models

Regression models based on the log-symmetric family of distributions are particularly useful when the response is strictly positive and asymmetric. In this paper, we propose a class of quantile regression models based on reparameterized log-symmetric distributions, which have a quantile parameter. Two Monte Carlo simulation studies are carried out using the R software. The first one analyzes the performance of the maximum likelihood estimators, the information criteria AIC, BIC and AICc, and the generalized Cox-Snell and random quantile residuals. The second one evaluates the performance of the size and power of the Wald, likelihood ratio, score and gradient tests. A real box office data set is finally analyzed to illustrate the proposed approach.

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