arXiv subjects

Alan Heavens

Publications and source records attributed to Alan Heavens.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

The integrated angular bispectrum of weak lensing

We investigate three-point statistics in weak lensing convergence, through the integrated bispectrum. This statistic involves measuring power spectra in patches, and is thus easy to measure, and avoids the complexity of estimating the very large number of possible bispectrum configurations. The integrated bispectrum principally probes the squeezed limit of the bispectrum. To be useful as a set of summary statistics, accurate theoretical predictions of the signal are required, and, assuming Gaussian sampling distributions, the covariance matrix. In this paper, we investigate through simulations how accurate are theoretical formulae for both the integrated bispectrum and its covariance, finding that there a small inaccuracies in the theoretical signal, and more serious deviations in the covariance matrix, which may need to be estimated using simulations.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

Bayesian forward modelling of cosmic shear data

We present a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach to infer the cosmic matter density field, and the lensing and the matter power spectra, from cosmic shear data. This method uses a physical model of cosmic structure formation to infer physically plausible cosmic structures, which accounts for the non-Gaussian features of the gravitationally evolved matter distribution and light-cone effects. We test and validate our framework with realistic simulated shear data, demonstrating that the method recovers the unbiased matter distribution and the correct lensing and matter power spectrum. While the cosmology is fixed in this test, and the method employs a prior power spectrum, we demonstrate that the lensing results are sensitive to the true power spectrum when this differs from the prior. In this case, the density field samples are generated with a power spectrum that deviates from the prior, and the method recovers the true lensing power spectrum. The method also recovers the matter power spectrum across the sky, but as currently implemented, it cannot determine the radial power since isotropy is not imposed. In summary, our method provides physically plausible inference of the dark matter distribution from cosmic shear data, allowing us to extract information beyond the two-point statistics and exploiting the full information content of the cosmological fields.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Cosmology Intertwined III: $f σ_8$ and $S_8$

The standard $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model provides a wonderful fit to current cosmological data, but a few tensions and anomalies became statistically significant with the latest data analyses. While these anomalies could be due to the presence of systematic errors in the experiments, they could also indicate the need for new physics beyond the standard model. In this Letter of Interest we focus on the tension of the Planck data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density $Ω_m$, and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure ($σ_8,fσ_8$). We list a few interesting models for solving this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit with a single model a full array of data and not just one parameter at a time.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Cosmology Intertwined II: The Hubble Constant Tension

The current cosmological probes have provided a fantastic confirmation of the standard $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model, that has been constrained with unprecedented accuracy. However, with the increase of the experimental sensitivity a few statistically significant tensions between different independent cosmological datasets emerged. While these tensions can be in portion the result of systematic errors, the persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the need for new physics. In this Letter of Interest we will focus on the $4.4σ$ tension between the Planck estimate of the Hubble constant $H_0$ and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the $H_0$ evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we will list a few interesting new physics models that could solve this tension and discuss how the next decade experiments will be crucial.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Cosmology Intertwined I: Perspectives for the Next Decade

The standard $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model provides an amazing description of a wide range of astrophysical and astronomical data. However, there are a few big open questions, that make the standard model look like a first-order approximation to a more realistic scenario that still needs to be fully understood. In this Letter of Interest we will list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, also taking into account the current discordances present between the different cosmological probes, as the Hubble constant $H_0$ value, the $σ_8 - S_8$ tension, and the anomalies present in the Planck results. Finally, we will give an overview of upgraded experiments and next-generation space-missions and facilities on Earth, that will be of crucial importance to address all these questions.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Cosmology Intertwined IV: The Age of the Universe and its Curvature

A precise measurement of the curvature of the Universe is of primeval importance for cosmology since it could not only confirm the paradigm of primordial inflation but also help in discriminating between different early Universe scenarios. The recent observations, while broadly consistent with a spatially flat standard $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter ($Λ$CDM) model, are showing tensions that still allow (and, in some cases, even suggest) a few percent deviations from a flat universe. In particular, the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background power spectra, assuming the nominal likelihood, prefer a closed universe at more than 99\% confidence level. While new physics could be in action, this anomaly may be the result of an unresolved systematic error or just a statistical fluctuation. However, since a positive curvature allows a larger age of the Universe, an accurate determination of the age of the oldest objects provides a smoking gun in confirming or falsifying the current flat $Λ$CDM model.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Extreme data compression while searching for new physics

Bringing a high-dimensional dataset into science-ready shape is a formidable challenge that often necessitates data compression. Compression has accordingly become a key consideration for contemporary cosmology, affecting public data releases, and reanalyses searching for new physics. However, data compression optimized for a particular model can suppress signs of new physics, or even remove them altogether. We therefore provide a solution for exploring new physics \emph{during} data compression. In particular, we store additional agnostic compressed data points, selected to enable precise constraints of non-standard physics at a later date. Our procedure is based on the maximal compression of the MOPED algorithm, which optimally filters the data with respect to a baseline model. We select additional filters, based on a generalised principal component analysis, which are carefully constructed to scout for new physics at high precision and speed. We refer to the augmented set of filters as MOPED-PC. They enable an analytic computation of Bayesian evidences that may indicate the presence of new physics, and fast analytic estimates of best-fitting parameters when adopting a specific non-standard theory, without further expensive MCMC analysis. As there may be large numbers of non-standard theories, the speed of the method becomes essential. Should no new physics be found, then our approach preserves the precision of the standard parameters. As a result, we achieve very rapid and maximally precise constraints of standard and non-standard physics, with a technique that scales well to large dimensional datasets.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2019

Primordial power spectrum and cosmology from black-box galaxy surveys

We propose a new, likelihood-free approach to inferring the primordial matter power spectrum and cosmological parameters from arbitrarily complex forward models of galaxy surveys where all relevant statistics can be determined from numerical simulations, i.e. black-boxes. Our approach, which we call simulator expansion for likelihood-free inference (SELFI), builds upon approximate Bayesian computation using a novel effective likelihood, and upon the linearisation of black-box models around an expansion point. Consequently, we obtain simple "filter equations" for an effective posterior of the primordial power spectrum, and a straightforward scheme for cosmological parameter inference. We demonstrate that the workload is computationally tractable, fixed a priori, and perfectly parallel. As a proof of concept, we apply our framework to a realistic synthetic galaxy survey, with a data model accounting for physical structure formation and incomplete and noisy galaxy observations. In doing so, we show that the use of non-linear numerical models allows the galaxy power spectrum to be safely fitted up to at least $k_\mathrm{max} = 0.5$ $h$/Mpc, outperforming state-of-the-art backward-modelling techniques by a factor of $\sim 5$ in the number of modes used. The result is an unbiased inference of the primordial matter power spectrum across the entire range of scales considered, including a high-fidelity reconstruction of baryon acoustic oscillations. It translates into an unbiased and robust inference of cosmological parameters. Our results pave the path towards easy applications of likelihood-free simulation-based inference in cosmology. We have made our code pySELFI and our data products publicly available at http://pyselfi.florent-leclercq.eu.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2018

Bayesian Evidence against Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum in tension cosmology

Current cosmological constraints on the scalar spectral index of primordial fluctuations $n_{\rm s}$ in the $Λ$CDM model have excluded the minimal scale-invariant Harrison-Zel'dovich model ($n_{\rm s}=1$; hereafter HZ) at high significance, providing support for inflation. In recent years, however, some tensions have emerged between different cosmological datasets that, if not due to systematics, could indicate the presence of new physics beyond the $Λ$CDM model. In the light of these developments, we evaluate the Bayesian evidence against HZ in different data combinations and model extensions. Considering only the Planck temperature data, we find inconclusive evidence against HZ when including variations in the neutrino number $N_{\rm eff}$ and/or the Helium abundance $Y_{\rm He}$. Adding the Planck polarization data, on the other hand, yields strong evidence against HZ in the extensions we considered. Perhaps most interestingly, Planck temperature data combined with local measurements of the Hubble constant give as the most probable model an HZ spectrum, with additional neutrinos. However, with the inclusion of polarisation, standard $Λ$CDM is once again preferred, but the HZ model with extra neutrinos is not strongly disfavored. The possibility of fully ruling out the HZ spectrum is therefore ultimately connected with the solution to current tensions between cosmological datasets. If these tensions are confirmed by future data, then new physical mechanisms could be at work and an HZ spectrum could still offer a valid alternative.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2017

Massive data compression for parameter-dependent covariance matrices

We show how the massive data compression algorithm MOPED can be used to reduce, by orders of magnitude, the number of simulated datasets that are required to estimate the covariance matrix required for the analysis of gaussian-distributed data. This is relevant when the covariance matrix cannot be calculated directly. The compression is especially valuable when the covariance matrix varies with the model parameters. In this case, it may be prohibitively expensive to run enough simulations to estimate the full covariance matrix throughout the parameter space. This compression may be particularly valuable for the next-generation of weak lensing surveys, such as proposed for Euclid and LSST, for which the number of summary data (such as band power or shear correlation estimates) is very large, $\sim 10^4$, due to the large number of tomographic redshift bins that the data will be divided into. In the pessimistic case where the covariance matrix is estimated separately for all points in an MCMC analysis, this may require an unfeasible $10^9$ simulations. We show here that MOPED can reduce this number by a factor of 1000, or a factor of $\sim 10^6$ if some regularity in the covariance matrix is assumed, reducing the number of simulations required to a manageable $10^3$, making an otherwise intractable analysis feasible.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2017

No evidence for extensions to the standard cosmological model

We compute the Bayesian Evidence for models considered in the main analysis of Planck cosmic microwave background data. By utilising carefully-defined nearest-neighbour distances in parameter space, we reuse the Monte Carlo Markov Chains already produced for parameter inference to compute Bayes factors $B$ for many different model-dataset combinations. Standard 6-parameter flat $Λ$CDM model is favoured over all other models considered, with curvature being mildly favoured only when CMB lensing is not included. Many alternative models are strongly disfavoured by the data, including primordial correlated isocurvature models ($\ln B=-7.8$), non-zero scalar-to-tensor ratio ($\ln B=-4.3$), running of the spectral index ($\ln B = -4.7$), curvature ($\ln B=-3.6$), non-standard numbers of neutrinos ($\ln B=-3.1$), non-standard neutrino masses ($\ln B=-3.2$), non-standard lensing potential ($\ln B=-4.6$), evolving dark energy ($\ln B=-3.2$), sterile neutrinos ($\ln B=-6.9$), and extra sterile neutrinos with a non-zero scalar-to-tensor ratio ($\ln B=-10.8$). Other models are less strongly disfavoured with respect to flat $Λ$CDM. As with all analyses based on Bayesian Evidence, the final numbers depend on the widths of the parameter priors. We adopt the priors used in the Planck analysis, while performing a prior sensitivity analysis. Our quantitative conclusion is that extensions beyond the standard cosmological model are disfavoured by Planck data. Only when newer Hubble constant measurements are included does $Λ$CDM become disfavoured, and only mildly, compared with a dynamical dark energy model ($\ln B\sim +2$).

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2017

Perturbation Theory for BAO reconstructed fields: one-loop results in real-space matter density field

We compute the power spectrum at one-loop order in standard perturbation theory for the matter density field to which a standard Lagrangian Baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) reconstruction technique is applied. The BAO reconstruction method corrects the bulk motion associated with the gravitational evolution using the inverse Zel'dovich approximation (ZA) for the smoothed density field. We find that the overall amplitude of one-loop contributions in the matter power spectrum substantially decrease after reconstruction. The reconstructed power spectrum thereby approaches the initial linear spectrum when the smoothed density field is close enough to linear, i.e., the smoothing scale $R_s$ larger than around 10$h^{-1}$Mpc. On smaller $R_s$,however, the deviation from the linear spectrum becomes significant on large scales ($k\lt R_s^{-1}$) due to the nonlinearity in the smoothed density field, and the reconstruction is inaccurate. Compared with N-body simulations, we show that the reconstructed power spectrum at one loop order agrees with simulations better than the unreconstructed power spectrum. We also calculate the tree-level bispectrum in standard perturbation theory to investigate non-Gaussianity in the reconstructed matter density field. We show that the amplitude of the bispectrum significantly decreases for small $k$ after reconstruction and that the tree-level bispectrum agrees well with N-body results in the weakly nonlinear regime.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2017

Mapping weak lensing distortions in the Kerr metric

Einstein's theory of General Relativity implies that energy, i.e. matter, curves space-time and thus deforms lightlike geodesics, giving rise to gravitational lensing. This phenomenon is well understood in the case of the Schwarzschild metric, and has been accurately described in the past; however, lensing in the Kerr space-time has received less attention in the literature despite potential practical observational applications. In particular, lensing in such space is not expressible as the gradient of a scalar potential and as such is a source of curl-like signatures and an asymmetric shear pattern. In this paper, we develop a differentiable lensing map in the Kerr metric, reworking and extending previous approaches. By using standard tools of weak gravitational lensing, we isolate and quantify the distortion that is uniquely induced by the presence of angular momentum in the metric. We apply this framework to the distortion induced by a Kerr-like foreground object on a distribution of background of sources. We verify that the new unique lensing signature is orders of magnitude below current observational bounds for a range of lens configurations.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2017

Marginal Likelihoods from Monte Carlo Markov Chains

In this paper, we present a method for computing the marginal likelihood, also known as the model likelihood or Bayesian evidence, from Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), or other sampled posterior distributions. In order to do this, one needs to be able to estimate the density of points in parameter space, and this can be challenging in high numbers of dimensions. Here we present a Bayesian analysis, where we obtain the posterior for the marginal likelihood, using $k$th nearest-neighbour distances in parameter space, using the Mahalanobis distance metric, under the assumption that the points in the chain (thinned if required) are independent. We generalise the algorithm to apply to importance-sampled chains, where each point is assigned a weight. We illustrate this with an idealised posterior of known form with an analytic marginal likelihood, and show that for chains of length $\sim 10^5$ points, the technique is effective for parameter spaces with up to $\sim 20$ dimensions. We also argue that $k=1$ is the optimal choice, and discuss failure modes for the algorithm. In a companion paper (Heavens et al. 2017) we apply the technique to the main MCMC chains from the 2015 Planck analysis of cosmic background radiation data, to infer that quantitatively the simplest 6-parameter flat $Λ$CDM standard model of cosmology is preferred over all extensions considered.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2016

Generalisations of Fisher Matrices

Fisher matrices play an important role in experimental design and in data analysis. Their primary role is to make predictions for the inference of model parameters - both their errors and covariances. In this short review, I outline a number of extensions to the simple Fisher matrix formalism, covering a number of recent developments in the field. These are: (a) situations where the data (in the form of (x,y) pairs) have errors in both x and y; (b) modifications to parameter inference in the presence of systematic errors, or through fixing the values of some model parameters; (c) Derivative Approximation for LIkelihoods (DALI) - higher-order expansions of the likelihood surface, going beyond the Gaussian shape approximation; (d) extensions of the Fisher-like formalism, to treat model selection problems with Bayesian evidence.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2016

Cosmology and Fundamental Physics with the Euclid Satellite

Euclid is a European Space Agency medium class mission selected for launch in 2020 within the Cosmic Vision 2015 2025 program. The main goal of Euclid is to understand the origin of the accelerated expansion of the universe. Euclid will explore the expansion history of the universe and the evolution of cosmic structures by measuring shapes and redshifts of galaxies as well as the distribution of clusters of galaxies over a large fraction of the sky. Although the main driver for Euclid is the nature of dark energy, Euclid science covers a vast range of topics, from cosmology to galaxy evolution to planetary research. In this review we focus on cosmology and fundamental physics, with a strong emphasis on science beyond the current standard models. We discuss five broad topics: dark energy and modified gravity, dark matter, initial conditions, basic assumptions and questions of methodology in the data analysis. This review has been planned and carried out within Euclid's Theory Working Group and is meant to provide a guide to the scientific themes that will underlie the activity of the group during the preparation of the Euclid mission.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2016

An accurate halo model for fitting non-linear cosmological power spectra and baryonic feedback models

We present an optimized variant of the halo model, designed to produce accurate matter power spectra well into the non-linear regime for a wide range of cosmological models. To do this, we introduce physically motivated free parameters into the halo-model formalism and fit these to data from high-resolution $N$-body simulations. For a variety of $Λ$CDM and $w$CDM models the halo-model power is accurate to $\simeq 5$ per cent for $k\leq 10h\,\mathrm{Mpc}$ and $z\leq 2$. An advantage of our new halo model is that it can be adapted to account for the effects of baryonic feedback on the power spectrum. We demonstrate this by fitting the halo model to power spectra from the OWLS hydrodynamical simulation suite via parameters that govern halo internal structure. We are able to fit all feedback models investigated at the 5 per cent level using only two free parameters, and we place limits on the range of these halo parameters for feedback models investigated by the OWLS simulations. Accurate predictions to high-$k$ are vital for weak lensing surveys, and these halo parameters could be considered nuisance parameters to marginalize over in future analyses to mitigate uncertainty regarding the details of feedback. Finally, we investigate how lensing observables predicted by our model compare to those from simulations and from HALOFIT for a range of $k$-cuts and feedback models and quantify the angular scales at which these effects become important. Code to calculate power spectra from the model presented in this paper can be found at https://github.com/alexander-mead/hmcode

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2016

Beyond $Λ$CDM: Problems, solutions, and the road ahead

Despite its continued observational successes, there is a persistent (and growing) interest in extending cosmology beyond the standard model, $Λ$CDM. This is motivated by a range of apparently serious theoretical issues, involving such questions as the cosmological constant problem, the particle nature of dark matter, the validity of general relativity on large scales, the existence of anomalies in the CMB and on small scales, and the predictivity and testability of the inflationary paradigm. In this paper, we summarize the current status of $Λ$CDM as a physical theory, and review investigations into possible alternatives along a number of different lines, with a particular focus on highlighting the most promising directions. While the fundamental problems are proving reluctant to yield, the study of alternative cosmologies has led to considerable progress, with much more to come if hopes about forthcoming high-precision observations and new theoretical ideas are fulfilled.

astro-ph.CO↗